the pistons will struggle come playoff time because their interior defense is terrible. When they had Ben Wallace (the younger version, before he crashed last year), they could funnel players to him and Rasheed. Less fouls, more interior D. But without him, they've got no one there to stop - or even hinder - the likes of James and Wade.
The transformation of the Pistons is complete. They are now a soft offensive team that can't get stops when they need it. Death in the playoffs.
A few comments here:
1) You are correct in that Chauncey's injury is the biggest reason for a lower record. They've been on a tear since his return.
2) Tyson Chandler has improved this year because he was traded. He had a crap year last season and would have been slightly better if he remained on the Bulls, but would not have had the kind of season he's having with NOK.
3) You claim "Familiarity" is a reason that the Pistons have a worse record this year, and I agree that is a factor. However, it's also a major factor in Wallace's performance on the Bulls. Check out his last 10-15 games and compare them to the rest of the season. He's feeling a lot more comfortable now.
4) I don't know if I buy "Average luck" as a factor, because the way I remember it, the Pistons blew out other teams in a ton of their games last year. A significant portion of their wins ended with Rasheed Wallace laughing on the bench because the game was well over. I could be wrong on this - just a feeling.
5) The reason the Pistons lost to an inferior team in the playoffs was because they were totally burned out. The biggest evidence is that Billups and Hamilton missed a ton of important free throws against both Cleveland and Miami. That only happens to good FT shooters if they're tired (and they're both excellent).
6) The Pistons defense was worse last year than in previous seasons and Ben Wallace was frustrated with how the team was playing. This is part of the reason the Bulls even had a chance.
7) It's a little early to tell. If somehow the Bulls upset the Pistons in the playoffs, the question is answered. quod erat demonstrandum as the kids like to say...
btw, just for context, I'm a huge Bulls fan
the bulls are the better team. it's a simple fact that requires little to no analysis. victor khrapya. that's all that is needed.
insert "Complaints about topic choice" here.
so this "NBA" is where the old college players go, huh? never heard of it....
I commend brian on the analysis, but it doesn't take much to realize that one who pays the max for a dude who averages 9 pts a game is in "Camp Crispy Pops."
people who criticised a)Dumars for the decision to release him & b)Ben for leaving are duh duh duh duhduhduh deduhdeduh...
The Bulls will lose in the playoffs just like the Pistons will. Both are jump shooting teams who won't be able to score as well once the playoffs start.
The Pistons weren't "burnt out" in the playoffs, they lost to a better coached team with the two best players in the floor when they played Miami. They should have lost to Cleveland because the Pistons couldn't stop Lebron James and the Pistons offense doesn't work when you play "playoff" defense on them.
Those teams under Larry Brown were boring offensively, but he knew what won games in the playoffs: low post scoring, getting to the line and playing solid defense.
Another factor is the simple fact that Webber wasn't in Detroit all season. With them, the record is significantly better than it was without him. Extrapolate that over the full season, and I suspect you are at least closer to the neighborhood of 2005-2006.
lol @ Bulls are the better team.
This team will run through the Eastern Conference and lose a tough 6 or 7 game series in the Finals. It has been written.
They overvalued the regular season last year. That is all. This year? Not so much.
And I'm dying at low post scoring winning in the playoffs. Everyone knows that's exactly what won the Bulls all those titles.
superb analysis, brian, my compliments.
not to pick on a throwaway line, or anything, but you'll have a hard time convincing me that this is flip saunders' fault. i think he was coaching last year.
that said, there's a grain of truth to that - the change in atmosphere around this team vis-a-vis brown v. saunders probably had a lot to do with last year's success. that happens a lot - a disciplinarian leaves and a...non...disciplinarian comes in, everyone feels free and plays that way. for a while (witness - saban to bobby williams, brown to isiah, buck showalter to joe torre...), at least. it doesn't always stay that way. i think the less-disciplined approach helped last year and has caught up with them this.
again, nice analysis, though.
ummm...as you point out in the point previous to the "awful" note. my bad.
Really interesting post. One little nitpick I'd add is that last year, Rasheed Wallace suffered a pretty bad ankle sprain halfway through the second-round series against Cleveland, and from then on the Pistons weren't the same, barely scraping by the Cavs and then losing to the Heat. With an un-gimpy Rasheed, they probably would have finished off the Cavs sooner, and put up more of a fight against the Heat (although they may well have still lost).
I'm still a bit concerned about Billups's status. He will be 31 next fall. I don't think you can let him go, but what if his agent demands a five-year deal? My guess is he has 2-3 years of top-level play in him and that's it.
In the absence of college football:
MORE LIKE THIS PLZ THANKS.
"And I'm dying at low post scoring winning in the playoffs. Everyone knows that's exactly what won the Bulls all those titles."
It helps to have the best player on the planet, the second best player in the league, and a watered down NBA to play against...
As a Cavs fan, please accept my thanks for taking Flip "Ronald" Murray off our hands.
Now who will rid us of Damon Jones and a media corps that doesn't appreciate Drew Gooden.
Re: MLE point guard. Not necessary. We have the Magic's #1 pick, which is looking like it might be in the lottery. If not, it's certainly going to be the 14th pick. I think they're currently teetering on the edge. I think that pick is going to end up right around the 10-12 range. Assuming that lightning doesn't strike and turn that pick into Durant or Oden, I think that Dumars is dying to take Acie Law IV. He's a perfect fit for us, and would set us up nicely for the next 4-6 years.
Great analysis. You should definitely do more stuff like this in the future.
The Magic pick is top-5 protected, so we'll be rooting against them in the lottery.
And Flop, we already had Damon Jones. We call "not it".
"it's over...thank merciful god, it's over"
-M basketball fans
"It's over?! OMGWTF IT'S OVER?!?!"
- Duke basketball fans
ok, so i was doing some reading last night and came across something disconcerning:
Battle Creek C/PF Jason Washburn. good player, not great. top 100 Jr. certainly we need bodies down low. the kids' family are U-M grads, grew up a UM fan, etc. M has NOT offered, and thus MSU is his 1st choice right now. basically, my question is, WTF?!?!!?
Likee topic choice.
2003-2004 Detroit Pistons 2 leading scorers: Chauncey and Rip
2006-2007 Detroit Pistons 2 leading scorers: Chauncey and Rip.
Yep. Low post scoring was the key to that Pistons Championship.
Never thought I'd say this: Thank you, Seminoles.
Mr. Martin, you know what to do.
"Yep. Low post scoring was the key to that Pistons Championship."
That's an example of using statistics out of context. The Pistons teams under Larry Brown worked - a majority of the time - from the inside out. A pass to the post and then finding cutters or players of screens or the player (usually Rasheed Wallace or Tayshaun Prince or even Corliss Williamson) would go to the basket. Larry put Chauncey in the post a lot too because he's so much bigger than the other guards.
Saunders' offense works more (last year) from the outside in. And in the playoffs, the entire offense was based on jump shots with little penetration or post ups. The result was that they became much easier to defend. Ask Cleveland.
I love stats as much as the next fellas, but the wrong stats don't explain the story. And you're using the wrong stats.
It might help to watch the games too.
Re: Washburn -- I'm not saying don't pursue him, but he's Tom Herzog, not Al Horford. A serviceable Big 10 player, but not a program-changer.
I suspect that now that Roe is pretty much out of the picture that U-M will start looking to Washburn (keep in mind U-M has a limited # of '08 scholarships).
Good thread, I got here from outside via truehoop I think.
"what is the difference between the number of rebounds the Bulls would have secured with a replacement for Rodman compared to the number they did secure with Rodman?"
You can find team rebounding %s with his sub. If the sub is close to average and the overall rebounding capacity of the other 4 players on the flor with Rodman's sub is near equal to the quality of the 4 playing with Rodman then you would have the answer you seek.
But it isnt likely to be that easy. But there are guys who do adjusted +/- for scoring and it would be possible to do adjusted analysis of rebounding rates. Maybe the folks at basketballvalue.com or 82games.com could do it. I assume some of the stat guys from apbrmetrics group could do it for the teams they work for. Do they? They usually won't say. If they aren't doing it already, then maybe they arent that far ahead. keeping up community ties is important; listening and also sharing will develop the next wave of ideas faster.
jeff, i would have taken herzog any day. and how many spots does state have? i mean, they lose NO ONE next year, and neitzel the year after. i know this kid from cornflakesville isn't great, but man, we. need. big. men. aaaaand he's a legacy.
i just can't believe that M wouldn't offer a kid who is:
1)qualified
2)a 6-11 top 100
3) instate
4)a legacy
come on, he's G Brown++.
Interesting....Flip Murray had a great game vs. the Suns today. But agreed, he is not very good other than tonight.
"Flip Murray is awful at everything"
I would have agreed with you, until last night.
I think I heard Flip mumbling to himself "fuckin mgoblog guy. I'll show him" as he went on to hist best night as a Piston against Pheonix:
R. Murray
Points: 25
Reb: 4
Ast: 2
Stl: 6
Blk: 1
Yeah, I'm not a FLip Murray fan either, but on a night where Billups and Hunter were out, leaving the Pistons with no true PG, and Hamilton and Prince shot horribly, Flip Murray and Carlos Delfino provided the guard scoring to lead the Pistons to a 21-point win over the Suns in Phoenix. That is the wierdest sentence I have ever typed.
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