I honestly think you could make a case that Boston College would lose to every team behind them from #5 Oklahoma until #10 South Carolina. For that matter I think Florida & Auburn would beat them as well. And Va Tech will beat them when they play em.
I'm not sold on BC.
That being said I guess they are undefeated and I guess they have to go at #4.
I have no idea about ASU. I only saw them play Stanford and they absolutely smoked them. I'll reserve judgement till Cal goes to Tempe in a few weeks
I guess our +4 means you had us at 26 last week?
My non-blogpoller ballot would have kept us there until after this week... color me that in-between, kind-of-getting-somewhat-excited/wish-we'd-been-
this-good-all-year/please-don't-screw-this-up-
pleasepleaseplease type of fan at the moment.
I believe (oh, yes. I believe.) I just don't want to encourage any karmic-zooktribution for giddiness at this stage in the season...
God...with each passing week the App'n State loss gets worse and worse. Had our only loss been to a very strong Oregon team, we'd be right in the mix with all the other one-loss teams. And had we beaten App'n State in week 1, I still think we would have lost to Oregon in week 2, but I honestly believe we might have played them at least a little bit tougher.
Sigh.
I watched Arizona State live last Saturday against Washington. Although ASU was down 17-13 in the first half, they really exploded in the second part of the game--especially the running game.
This is a "good" team that has some talent and seems to have responded well to Erickson's coaching to date. That said, they're coming up to the difficult part of the schedule. The Sun Devils have a bye this weekend, then host California. ASU also has games coming up at Oregon and with USC (plus Arizona to wrap up the season and an up-and-down UCLA team).
Come back to me in two weeks and we'll see, but I'd be hard pressed to believe that this team will win up in Eugene. Could they beat USC or Cal in Tempe? Well, given what's happened the past two weeks, I don't think I'd say no, but let's make it 1-1 in those games. They should beat UCLA in Pasadena and Arizona in the season finale.
Final regular season record should be 9-2, I think.
I've seen a few Arizona State games this season and I'd say that their offense is at least as good as Oregon and conceivably less error prone, which could be the difference between Nat'l Champs and nada for the Ducks right now.
They're certainly better (perchance are you listening, AP voters?) than Hawai'i (who, having been taken to 42-35 in overtime by San Jose St., have successfully convinced me that they are in fact worse than Stanford (who beat SJSU 37-0)). I completely agree with dropping UH out of the top 25.
I'd say #9 behind Kentucky for ASU, which works because I have similar unconfirmed feelings about Missouri (and that rounds out your undefeateds beyond Kansas and the Rainbow Warriors).
I live in Phoenix now and have seen Arizona State regularly, and I'd say the previous commenter is pretty much correct.
They are a good (but not great) all-around team, with their main strength being an explosive but well-balanced offense. The D is slightly above average, but has improved significantly under Erickson.
The schedule will be what kills them. That and the loss of star RB Ryan Torain, who sprained his foot and is out indefinitely. I don't think can do any better than 2-2 through the four-game stretch of Oregon, Cal, UCLA and USC.
They probably belong somewhere between 10 and 15.
The problem with ranking LSU #1 is simple;
Matt Flynn
As long as he's QB they aren't done losing.
RHammer (SNRE '98),
The +4 for Michigan just means Brian didn't rank Michigan last week.
Further proof:#21 Kansas State is +5 and #19 Texas Tech is up +.
Would like some justification for Kentucky over S. Car. I mean, if you're not going to fault LSU for losing in 3OT to Kentucky, than I presume you think Kentucky is a solid club... which helps S Carolina, since they beat Kentucky. And as you obviously think LSU is a good team (keeping them at #1 after a loss), not sure how you can fault SC... I realize that SEC trio is a bit of a chicken/egg conundrum...
Also, I can understand the justification for LSU. Just curious-- OSU really doesn't have much more on their schedule, and ditto BC. Are you basically saying that no matter what, if LSU wins out, you're putting them over an undefeated Big 10 and ACC champion (if that's how it turns out)?
RHammer (SNRE '98),
The +4 for Michigan just means Brian didn't rank Michigan last week.
Further proof: #25 Wyoming is +1, #24 Penn State is +2, #21 Kansas State is +5 and #19 Texas Tech is up +7.
Kentucky (South Carolina) and South Carolina (LSU) have better losses than Oklahoma (Colorado) and Cal (Oregon State).
Should Missouri really be ahead of South Carolina?
my bad... you must be correct...
carry on
Dave-- you're right, but even more important than that, in my opinion, is that Kentucky and S.Car both have better wins (i.e., have displayed higher ceilings) than Oklahoma and Cal-- well, maybe not Cal, as their UT and UO wins are damn good, but Oklahoma for sure. If you display a higher ceiling (better win) AND a higher floor (better/more justifiable loss), you have to be ranked higher, imo.
My frustration with the LSU justification lies in the fact that I think SEC rankings are somewhat circle-jerk-y.
As for Arizona State, nobody will beat the Sun Devils but themselves. To be fair, they have an ample history of doing just that. But I could legitimately see them running the table. The problem with Koetter was, for years, that a team with phenomenal talent played down to the competition (sound familiar?). Arizona State is winning the games that they used to lose, and for two years no team has solidly pounded ASU. No game has been out of reach. This team, if they can limit the grevous errors and play better in the first half, could go all the way.
What to do about Arizona State? They should be directly adjacent to Ohio State, in my opinion. Its unbelievable that they are so widely separated in the polls.
Erik, I just don't see them being able to beat Oregon, Cal AND USC. The team has always struggled with consistency, and despite a solid amount of talent, they're certainly nowhere near the USC's of the world.
And with Ryan Torain likely done for the regular season, the offense (the team's strong point) just took a big hit.
Of course, after seeing the three aforementioned teams each lose a game, and with the general ridiculousness of this season, nothing would totally shock me anymore.
Here is my question....
Why did you raise South Florida so high after a win over central florida? That is the same as an Ohio State win over Kent State.
I think that BC is the second biggest fraud in college football. Terrible, terrible resume. Unimpressive 28-14 win over a terrible ND team.
Also, just in case anyone's forgotten:
SEC Attrition: "Just good SEC football!"
Any Other Conference: "The [conf] sucks and is the worst in CFB!!!"
Oregon really taking it on the chin for a 53-7 victory, unless you are still penalizing them for losing to Cal because of "HA HA" Colvin.
If OSU is downgraded for no quality wins then how is BC at #4. There os no chance BC beats anyone else in the top 10 of this poll. They're a .500 team at best in the SEC.
It doesn't feel right going so far down to see UM but at least they're in the polls now. BTW, the first two weeks are still a prelude to enormous disappointment. Call me a pessimist. Yay! Outback Bowl!
what is the best site for high res photos of michigan football?
Brian, I commend you for keeping LSU at 1 after an overtime loss against a good team, on the road. This is a game, like Oregon/Cal whose outcome is basically random and you can't ding the loser for it too badly.
I would extend your justification for not ranking OSU #1 even further. Like BC, ASU and all the other teams that beat up on weak opponents they should only move up when they earn it. ASU has had mixed reviews but has looked good overall against pretty weak competition. Like Purdue they will struggle when they face quality teams. But what they've done to date is pretty similar to what OSU has done. The BCS computers have them tied at #5 - that seems about right.
IMO - Don't rate OSU, ASU or BC in the top 3 until they show they can beat teams better than the Washington Huskies.
Sidenote - Why do people, especially, presumably cutting edge bloggers still talk about the AP poll after the harris is out and the computers are out. Bloggers should at least be making comparisons to the cracked out coaches poll or some other poll that isnt entirely irrelevant after week 5...
Shorts, I've followed ASU football religiously for the last five years. The last four years of experience do not apply with respect to consistency. There have already been two or three games this year that last year's Arizona State team would have lost.
I just finished "Bo's Lasting Lessons", and it's a phenomenal book that should be read by every self-respecting UM football fan. It really reads like Bo is narrating the text - Bacon did a great job of correlating the lessons with stories, so it also serves as a behind-the-scenes historical account of the Bo years
"Sidenote - Why do people, especially, presumably cutting edge bloggers still talk about the AP poll after the harris is out and the computers are out. Bloggers should at least be making comparisons to the cracked out coaches poll or some other poll that isnt entirely irrelevant after week 5..."
Because the AP vote still determines the AP National Champion at the end of the season?
Good point, Erik. The coaching is clearly much improved, as expected when Erickson came aboard. I definitely think this is a better team than they've had recently (and I lived out here prior to coming to U of M, so I saw them regularly over the last several years, too).
I just don't think they'll survive the tough four-game stretch coming up without Torain, but ya never know.
carpenter looks like the right choice all along over samuel the cornhusker, I saw the U-Dub game this weekend and ASU has swagger on both sides of the ball. Oregon will be the tough one on the road, but the Sun Devils look really comfortable in Tempe. keegan herring is not a bad backup to torain
I live in Chandler, which is a few minutes away from Tempe, so I have been able to watch the Arizona State games. And, I don't know much more about them than the rest of you. I mean yeah, they are a good team. But how good are they? I guess we'll find out over the next four games. Torain is out indefinitely, which will really hurt. ASU has sucessfully proven that they can't protect Carpenter to save their lives... soooooooooo this could prove to be disastrous especially against the USC pass rush. EEK! i predict 2-2 through the Cal, UCLA, Oregon, USC stretch and a 10-2 overall record and a holiday bowl. Pretty good first season in Tempe for Dennis Ericson
Another on the explanation of Kentucky and Missouri over S. Carolina.
What has Michigan done to get ranked, aside from spanking a complete unknown (Purdue has gotten annihilated by both opponents that were neither MAC, 1-AA, nor completely incompetent)? I don't see how Michigan can possibly be ahead of Illinois at this point (same number of losses, but I don't think anyone will dispute that Michigan's losses are worse, and Illinois's wins are slightly better too). I guess that will shake itself out by this time next week, whichever way it belongs.
Nothing aside from that looks too unreasonable. But if you have some justification for it (aside from homerism), I'd like to hear it.
I don't think it's accurate to say that Illinois' wins and losses are better than Michigan's.
Illinois' losses are to top-15 Missouri and a bad Iowa team, while Michigan's are to top-10 Oregon and Appalachian State. The App State loss is probably worse than the Iowa loss, but Oregon has shown itself to be a very good team.
Both UM and Illinois have beaten Penn State, while their second-best wins (Purdue for UM, Wisconsin for Illinois) are against mediocre conference teams.
Overall I'd say the resumes are very similar, but the fact that Michigan appears to be playing their best football of the season (while Illinois just suffered a bad loss) justifies UM being ranked higher - for now.
That being said, Illinois and their Juice Williams-Rashard Mendenhall combo scares the crap out of me.
you're right about wvu playing no one - they had a bye this week, but I'm sure they should drop since they have only one loss to your no. 2 team. yep, it makes sense, just like michigan whooping on appy state ... oops.
Interesting on 2 things:
1) Wyoming in the polls after a 20-3 loss to New Mexico?
2) Tennessee is absent?
If we play that 3-3-5 with Harrison able to make it look like a 5-2 and we bracket Benn, I'm confident we'll keep their score down.
I've watched ASU play SDSU and several tOSU games. The schedules appear comparable and both played Washington. I suspect that ASU has a slight edge over tOSU in offense while tOSU possesses a significantly stronger defense. For that reason I would rank tOSU higher at the moment.
More gawbage...I'm not following the logic. Maybe its my Ohio funded education holding me back but who's frickin problem is it that Michigan can't beat Div II teams, Oregon, USC can't beat Standford, LSU can't beat Kentucky, Oklahoma-Colorado, or Texas K-state. Why does OSU get punished for other teams falling to far lowly opponents and OSU just goes out and lays the beat down.
I heard all this bullshit when OSU went to Seattle, "They haven't played anybody", so OSU goes in and crushes U-dub like O.J. Simpson bride. Then all the same pundits spewed the same garbage when OSU went on the road, at night vs Purdue and layed the smack on them. People still continue to say they haven't played anybody. Hello, since when did losing to marginally less talented teams equate to quality.
I know I know. All ye experts were slobbering Wisky, PSU, Oky, USC, LSU, even Florida. I know I know, now all experts look like colossal assholes for not being remotely close for like 10 teams but who's fault is that. Reward OSU for playing good football because looking at this schedule their are no real opponents left...So who's fault is that???????????
I am the one who has been on ASU's bandwagon since the Colorodo game where most teams cave after getting down but they ended up whiping the map with them.
Someone compared them with OSY but I would say a schedule of San Jose State, San Diego State and Colorodo is much better then Kent St, Youngstown St and Akron. They both played Washington and both won good in the end.
Losing Torrain hurts but it happens to be at their deepest position with Harring and Nance who both would start at alot of places. They even could play Rudy Burgess at rb if the had to. Their RB position is akin to Michigans receiver position.
I dont think they are a top 5 team but I would say they could be anyone on a give day and they beat either USC or Cal, Lose to Oregon and finish 10-2 and go to the Holiday Bowl and win there.
It's your fault you don't have a brain.
OSU loses @ Penn State and Michigan.
By your logic, how can Kentucky not outrank LSU? Kentucky has beaten solid competition in Louisville, Arkansas, and your beloved #1 LSU, with their only loss to #11 (at the time) SC, on the coast in SC's house no less. And they beat LSU! C'mon now, if you're gonna go with the 'quality wins' and only a loss to a good team on the road argument, then you gotta put UK at #1...
The tricky thing about that is that South Carolina beat Kentucky, so they should have to be ahead of UK. And then LSU beat South Carolina, so they would have to be ahead of the Gamecocks.... it's a chicken-and-egg sort of issue, as mentioned above.
Any time you have a situation like that, you obviously can't use head-to-head results. You basically just have to look at the teams and decide, based on merit, who is the best.
Brian, I agree with you 100% that LSU is still the best team in the country.
Juice Williams does not scare me.....He can't throw downfield. Only scrambling QBs that CAN throw accurately have destroyed us over the years. The 1 dimensional guys that can only throw, or only pass, even in spread offenses, we have been able to contain.
The guy that does worry me is Mendenhall. Much is made of Mich's inability to stop QBs in the spread offense, but perhaps just as important is getting gashed by running backs out of spread shot gun looks (OSU, Ball ST, Mich St. 03, Appy St.) While Mendenhall is not the classic spread scat back, he may present even more problems, being able to both run up through the tackles for tough yards, and having the ability to gash Mich for large chunks out of spread looks.
IMO...We contain Mendenhall, we win the game.
yes jorel, it's a travesty OSU hasn't gotten any love from the media...
wait...
/reads paper
huh. #1? well. they should be #0001!!! dammit.
Wyoming #25? LOL.
RE: the bitterness from Bluewolverine
When you can't find a bad OOC loss in the entire conference and have a half dozen teams playing at a high level, you tend to get that sort of respect.
"whose", SOJ, not "who's". Who's is a contraction of "who is".
clearly, someone has to explain to you how ranking teams works.
1) if the team you are playing against scores more points than you do by the end of the game, it is a loss - no matter how close it was, or how many overtimes it took to determine an outcome.
2) teams with a loss cannot be ranked above teams with no losses from major conferences, unless those teams names end with "rizona state".
3) saying ohio state hasnt beaten anyone, but putting michigan back in the rankings for not beating anyone AND losing two games at home smells faintly of homerism.
4) you move south florida up FIVE spots for beating no one, and leaving osu at 3 for plastering kent state is funny to quite funny.
5) i question why USC moved up.
that is all.
I think ASU is for real -- or at the very least worthy of a top 10 ranking. ASU pummelled Stanford, who turned around and beat USC the following week. ASU beat Colorado, who subsequently beat Oklahoma, and ASU beat Oregon State, who subsequently beat Cal. That's pretty damn good.
I understand the point with OSU. Their SOS is reminiscent of an undefeated Big East team from last season or lesser conference. However, they are in a major conference and while we all know the Big Ten is horrible we have to respect the big conference. OSU or USF should be #1 for now. But since that number was not so much earned as survived they stand to lose it to the next high ranked team that does something great. On the off chance OSU goes undefeated think how much fun a reprisal of last year's championship game will be.
BC. One of the few consistent measuring sticks is how quickly and thoroughly a team puts away ND this season. BC failed horribly and hence must not be that good. Don't buy the idea that ND has gotten substantially better. They haven't.
Michigan. Ranking was going to happen this week or next (given a win over Illinois.) The bottom is so transitory it hardly matters. For those lamenting the ASU loss because of what it means for the national championship. I thought I was one of the more optimistic voices on the board and I don't think M has any business playing in the championship game. Half the board thinks predicting victory over Purdue or Illinois is evidence of severe dementia and a rehab of Carr and yet want to play in the championship game? I've seen enuf of that. I'll take a win over OSU and some lesser BCS bowl and be happy as a clam.
OT but does anyone know what type of offense MSU runs?
imafreak: I'm with you on a victory over OSU and a win over a "name" program in a decent bowl. That would help pass the bitter taste we were given by the first two weeks of this season.
That would also be a fitting exit for Hart, who has given so much to the program and been repeatedly let down by overly conservative offensive playcalling, a lack of adjustments, and an ancient, hidebound conditioning regime that is laughed at by those knowledgable in the field of strength development.
does the ap national championship poll have any official recognition anymore than other polls?
even if it still decides half of the MNC, it shouldn't be cited since it has no influence on who plays in the title game, which will decide the champion 95% of the time.
Meh, I don't really care where OSU is ranked, we need to win out regardless, and if we do, we're in...
I do know that BC is a fraud, and not only have they not played anyone, they haven't won in dominating fashion...
And say what you want about OSU's schedule, but they have been killing people. That Northwestern game looked like Nelson vs, Milhouse. I actually feared for NU's safety, don't know if I've seen an in conference 58-7 game that looked more like 108-7 before. And NU has played some decent teams tough since, beating Sparty and Minny, and we saw how they played UM...
Same for Kent State, who rushed for over 300 yards against KY, and gained over 400 total yards of offense against the SEC giant killer.
Overall, OSU has outscored their opponents 250-46, they have not only managed not to lose to anyone, they haven't even come the slightest bit close...the closest game? 20-2 vs Akron? Akron had three first downs and 69 total yards...brutal...
We'll see if we can do it on the road, against opponents who consider playing us their NC game. I don't care who UM has lost to this season, playing Henne, Hart, Manningham, Arrington, Long, etc, guys in their final B10 game who have never beaten OSU, that's as tough a game as any team will play this season.
Ohio St./Arizona St./Kansas
What really is the difference between these three teams? Kansas appears to be the only one with a decent win (Kansas St.), i'm not ssure how to differentiate them. They haven't played anyone but have won all their games. The only difference appears to be people expect Ohio St. to be better than ASU and ASU to be better than Kansas.
The SEC group bothers me. The general consensus appears to be SEC teams are good because they have wins against SEC teams who are good because they have wins against other SEC teams and so on. LSU is a completely different team away from home, they should have been behind at the half at Tulane (Tulane! sidenote, i'm a tulane grad and watched the game intently, the score at half should have favored us and wouldn't have been a fluke, we "won" the first half. We're 1-5 by the way, haven't beaten a 1-A team). Does anyone really believe Kentucky is really that good? Those wins over Louisville and Arkansas don't seem to mean much at thiss point. South Carolina impresses after there 21-15 win over the power house in Chapel Hill? My inclination is that LSU will lose again if Florida pulls it together and gets into the SEC championship game, and people will talk about how a 2-loss SEC team is better than any other team in the country. The SEC will then be exposed come bowl season.
@Mo, #3,
Not putting OSU at #1 and putting UM back into the rankings are two completely different things. And if you have forgotten, UM beat a then 10th ranked PSU, kind of like OSU beat a then 23rd ranked Purdue.
I just don't put that much stock in beating bad teams with stick because I don't see a correlation with that and beating a good team. I guess that's one of the reasons I don't get so exorcised when M wins comfortably but not by a million.
The U-Dub and Akron halftime scores for OSU could be an indicator or abberation. I just think OSU's offense will wilt against good competition. The fact that Tressel is putting up so many points (unlike years other than last season) makes me think he knows something we don't. Maybe he's trying to inject confidence into his weak offense. Maybe he suspects, as I think he did last season, that his defense is vulnerable. Given OSU's competition, I think M's defense could look really good. We know that would be an illusion.
I don't think OSU team is anywhere's as good as 2002 or even last season.
I'm not trying to denigrate anyone. Just my opinion.
I agree with the general consensus that it is very hard to judge exactly how good or bad OSU is at this point in the season. The only thing we really know is that Boeckman has fewer dimensions to his game than Smith.
I don't really think that the Washington victory is a good benchmark. U-Dub has not shown themselves to be a good team this year. Heck, USC was trying to giftwrap a victory for the Huskies and they just couldn't seem to reach out and take it.
Every time I see the ASU acronym, my first thought is the Horror.
AzSU
Gnarls--
If we had beaten App St but gotten smoked by Oregon, we'd have about the same resume as Virginia Tech and be ranked about as high. We wouldn't be a serious contender.
I can't believe you have Virginia and Wyoming ranked. I'm guessing you have Wyoming ranked to justify your Virginia ranking. Wyoming got destroyed by New Mexico last week. Virginia's wins are atrocious. They beat UNC by 2, Middle Tennessee St. by 2, and UCONN (UCONN is also terrible despite beating a bunch of bad teams) by 1. Virginia might have the easiest schedule of any BCS conference team in the country. They play one ranked team and it's not until the last game of the season. They don't play Boston College, Clemson, or Florida St. I can see ranking Virginia based on how you think they'll be in the polls at the end of the year because of how awful the schedule is but I know you don't buy into that so I'm perplexed. Neither team is even close to a top 25 team.
Fuck that, formerlyanonymous. Why should one of the largest research universities in the country play second fiddle to some backwater assclowns?
ASU and ApSU, if you must differentiate.
shorts - Yes, the quality of opponents (Missouri and Oregon) for the not-so-bad losses are comparable and favor Michigan slightly, but one was a neutral-site loss by 6 and the other was a 32-point beatdown at home. The only other major difference is Illinois's win at Indiana (who appears to be reasonably good this year, annihilation in Lansing notwithstanding), which gives Illinois a third good win (Michigan's third-best is probably the demolition of Notre Dame). I hadn't considered the difference in when the losses had occurred (something I think gets over-emphasized in the polls), but you're right that Michigan is playing its best now and Illinois may not be (though I'm inclined to say they were looking ahead to this week's game ... mein Gott, that feels weird talking about Illinois falling for a "trap game").
We'll know for sure by Saturday night.
>>> OT but does anyone know what type of offense MSU runs?
It's more conventional this year (with Hoyer, who's not particularly mobile) than with Stanton at the helm. Ringer's putting up some sick numbers on the ground, especially now that Dantonio's figured out he doesn't have to go pass-wacky late in the game like he did against Wisconsin and NW. Hoyer has been inconsistent (shredded Indiana, but missed badly on just about every play in OT against NW), but not Morelli-level inconsistent.
If you had any faith that um would beat OSU, then you would want the Buckeyes ranked #1 when you play them. As it is, you know that you have very little reason other than pure hatred for putting anyone ahead of OSU at this point. I understand. It would be like me making a top 25, which is utterly pointless by the way, and putting App. State ahead of Michigan.
By my calculations (just updated this evening), Arizona State has played the 109th rated schedule in the country. This would be the worst of the Pac 10 if not for USC, which has played the 111th rated schedule.
This 109 rating puts Arizona State in the vicinity of Ohio State (107), Boston College (113), Kansas (116), and Hawaii (119). In other words, Arizona State is in the same boat as every unbeaten team other than USF (56) - firmly in the Ain't Played Nobody category.
The bottom line---please be #1 on Nov 17 OSU--then if we don't beat them, we need to just shut up and hope for some drastic changes!
Down here in Columbus, buckeye fans don't really have confidence but in the fact that their team is !#1 and they support it. SOOOOOO all Michigan has to do is punk them at home and make our season a whole lot better!
You all know a loss will drop them like a hot rock and the boys who have never beaten them will leave with a lot of satisfaction!
Dave where are you getting your schedule rankings from? NCAA's schedule rank is mucho different. Southern Cal is in the 60s and Arizona St in the 40s.
And Dan, what do you mean by "more conventional" than the spread John L. employed. There's a lot of variation there lol. Thanks in advance.
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