Iran is not going to be a cake walk. The people pimping these 72hr 2000 target dreams worry me (I thinks its called "setting yourself up for failure"). We may take out some of the high priority targets in the first 72hrs to keep it from going to ground but I think the first 72hrs will probably be used on the Iranian Naval, Air Defense & Ballistic Missile abilities. Cut off their Weapon hands and you can kick back and at will degrade the rest at will until you decide to stop.
After those first 72hr we should destroy as much of the Iranian Gov Control Structure, Communication system, and Infrastructure as possible. I would foresee more like a 91' Gulf Air War rather than 98' Fox. You cannot just skip A for B, when A is the foundation making B possible.
Iran could would be crushed under the US military power but we will lose aircraft, we will lose some oil tankers, and their is good possibility we will have some heavily damaged warships. I don't think the chances of sunk ships are too high simply by the fact any Iranian attack will be a hit in run type and small/moderate weapon load, after which we will immediately re secure the area around the damaged ship. Tag that with some impressive coordination and damage control systems plus of course nearby friendly ports of call.
Done right we could buy a decade on the Iranian WMD program, cripple their ability to conventionally threaten their neighbors, and force those billions going to support terrorist around the world to be redistributed to the Iranian homeland to rebuild their infrastructure. Humiliate Iran and her allies showing the world how the strong horse is the US and her Allies which will embolden our allies + expand them. (everyone loves a strong horse).
Bonus if done right and Iran doesn't correct themselves some SOF insertion tagged with weapons, funds, and maybe even some air support we can turn Iran into some real chaos, NW Kurds, SW Shia Muslim, NE Baloch, N Armenian, Center & N Persian Student Movement.
I completely agree, its a major effort, bigger than Iraq in 2003, and no matter what anyone says it will require Marines on the ground on those islands to open the Gulf to traffic.
These sunny side up few thousand sortie benchmarks are fairy tales.
These are good posts......
I believe that the US would strike the Iranian Kilos as a pre-condition of any planned series of attacks on Iran. Ditto the Iranian naval bases serving as hosts for "small boat" swarms. The mines are a problem.....but since the Strait of Hormuz is so narrow, sweeping mines there could be effectively accomplished using the mine killing sleds towed by USN helos.....Then "cleared" ship transit lanes would have to be established and carefully policed to prevent new mines being laid...The US has deployed newer mine sweepers to the Gulf....and I believe other friendly nations have done the same.
The new Iranian anti-a/c missile systems sold by Russia can be over come.....The Israeli jets attacking Syria last month proved that.....
NO Cake Walk, true....the the USN's new SSGNs amy make their initial debut in any attack....While Iran is a BIG country....only military sites would be targeted.....AS most of the Iranian people are NOT hostile to the US....they'd probably welcome us ridding them of the mullahs and the over zealous IRGN. Nevertheless, I think this is a case of not if, but when......that's the sad part of the
current world situation.....
Galrahn
"no matter what anyone says it will require Marines on the ground on those islands to open the Gulf to traffic."
Without Doubt. Not to mention the over a hundred other offshore Gas Rigs. On top of that I would say a push very possible into SW Iran if for no other reason than to secure the Quom terminals for Iraq and the Kuwaiti terminals.
Destroying every small boat that moves in a large flat body of water is one thing (very feasible in my opinion). But trying to destroy every single truck with a Silk Worm on its back in a populated area were you can't just kill every car/truck/blip that moves like on the water is a whole different story.
Iran is very doable and like Bob mentioned its not if but when. I just worry about the leadership doing what they did on Iraq and allow the media to set the bar. They will set that bar at impossible levels so to ensure even if we succeed we fail. The Iraq phase of the GWOT by all historical comparison is a unbelievable success yet due to the impossible Media bars its a utter failure. The Leadership should sell this to the people as worst case scenario so even if things go non-perfect (guaranteed to happen) the LLL & Media will not be able to say we failed even when we succeeded.
We live in a sad time when you actually have to plan before hand how to defeat your own nations Media/attempt to undermine destroy their own nations War Effort.
I thougt the simplest way to neutralize the kilo was to destroy them in port.Is it possible?
" On top of that I would say a push very possible into SW Iran if for no other reason than to secure the Quom terminals for Iraq and the Kuwaiti terminals.
"
Surely,you will agree that this require some careful diplomatic and miltary planning?And that we can expect a resistance similar to the Hezbollah in 2006.And that such action can have unexpected consequences.And so it should be carefully considered.
I for one am not convinced the Kilos, among other systems, can be successfully defeated in port.
Possible, sure, but counting on that is hard.
I am also not convinced you have to push into mainland Iran. The Kuwaiti, Saudi, and other Gulf states oil terminals are only vulnerable by sea, air, and ballistic missile attack, unless I am unaware of Iran owning some new chinese cruise missiles.
The Iraqi Terminals on the other hand, would be one of the most intense running battles in naval history, and it would take an incredible, special effort for it not to end in total disaster.
The best way to kill a sub is while she's moored at her home base, using precision guided munitions. Not sure if the Iranian base at Bandar e Abbas has concrete shelters,if they do a US/GBU-28 or the newer version of same is the weapon to use...At sea,
the best way to kill a sub is with another sub. The other important question is: How well are the three older Export version Iranian Kilos maintained? Hopefully about as well as their F-14s and F-4s. Nevertheless, it is sad to see this scenario unfolding,
but unless things change dramatically better, Pilae jacita est...."The die is cast".....my Latin's almost as old as I am.....sorry...
The best way to kill a sub is while she's moored at her home base, using precision guided munitions. Not sure if the Iranian base at Bandar e Abbas has concrete shelters,if they do a US/GBU-28 or the newer version of same is the weapon to use...At sea,the best way to kill a sub is with another sub. The other important question is: How well are the three older Export version Iranian Kilos maintained? Hopefully about as well as their F-14s and F-4s. Nevertheless, it is sad to see this scenario unfolding,
but unless things change dramatically for the better, Pilae jacita est...."The die is cast".....my Latin's almost as old as I am.....sorry...
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