That’s rather remarkable!
I note from MG Caldwell's slides that 44 death squaders dragged off the street in a week. I struggle to believe there are any more than say 1000 of these people actively just killing people. I would think 1000 may well be very high. With this sort of focus and pressure we should see some material impacts on death squad activity over next month or so.
The troubling aspect was the fact that Caldwell did not see them as being particularly organised or acting under some higher authorities command. That suggests to me political solutions won't work for this particular aspect of Iraqi violence but given lower numbers may not matter too much.
What did you guys make of Caldwell saying they were doing it for their "personal goals"? I found that very ambiguous. Is that code for more like say extortion or crime related goals than political ones?
Overall I found it the most comforting thing I have read about Baghdad in weeks. Long way to go but it showed to me the good guys can get these bastards and the locals are helping us not the enemy.
Extrapolating out perhaps a bit too far at this early stage but the death statistics are going to really get hollowed out if the death squads get whacked and terrorists stop bombing market places. Plus the death squadders may well have inadverently accelerated political reconciliation.
"more like say extortion or crime related goals"
Add revenge to that and I would say 40-60%.
Brigandage under cover of war is historicaly normal (and brutal - no witnesses is the rule).
Crime (violent and other) always goes up in a war zone.
More opportunities and cover.
And it is lumped in to the stats as part of the insergency.
nailgun,
If there is indeed some sort of political reconciliation going on, then a number of "free lancers" will emerge as various groups lay down their arms.
The more radical members of any given group won't want to lay down their arms and become even more violent, as they feel the group that they belonged to betrayed the 'cause' and them personally.
An update on what’s happening in Southern Lebanon.
This site is usually about 12 to 24 hours ahead of other MSM media sources.
http://www.debka.com/article.php...le.php?
aid=1190
Just watched the President and Milaki? (not sure if that is spelled correctly) speak... anyway it is not a good thing that Milaki does not openly condemn Hezbollah but rather also calls for a cease fire. He says it is about the peoples safety and yet he refused to openly condemn the terrorists army Hezbollah!
President Bush looked extremely discouraged and irritated today.
Do they think we have such persuasion with Israel that when they began their bombing there were around 25,000 Americans inside Lebanon? It is now going to costs the US even more money to help stabilize and feed another freaking country when we are facing our own difficulties! They have still not repaired the damage done to Cameron Parish from Rita, yet they need that area for gas and oil lines! We have wild fires burning up the west and gas prices soaring. We have elderly living hand to mouth. Israel chose to make this step in order to end the costant threat from which they live under from terrorism and I highly doubt that we knew of their plans and I doubt we can stop their war to protect themselves. If Lebanon and Iraq are to succeed, there must be total disarming of terrorists and radical factions and denouncement of terrorists must be said out loud by the leaders of these two countries. If they chose to constantly look the other way for political reasons or religious reasons, their society will surely fail and succumb to terrorism and radicalism. And then these types of wars wll be fought again and again until they face the truth. You cannot have a free society and knowingly have a terrorists organization flourishing within it...then you are not free. You have to stand up and fight for your freedom!
When we are still inside Iraq fighting with Shia and Sunni extremist, remember Irans roots are from Persia not Arab.
I will frankly be glad when the day comes when I don't have to try to pronounce another Arabian name! I will glad when this mess is finished and they are decided on what they want to be and quit killing one another or threatening to wipe another nation out! This is ridiculous and time is about up for them to get their act together!
OT:
http://
pentagonchannel.feedroom....af08726118b051f
FJI 25 July 2006
- 1-2-2 TOA of West Mosul.
- 35% of Ninawa Province turned over.
- Azaris have security of Haditha Dam.
- Refurbishing Baghdad Train Station.
"This plan will involve embedding more U.S. military police with Iraqi police units to make them more effective. The Prime Minister advised me that to support this plan, he and General Casey have agreed to deploy additional American troops and Iraqi security personnel in Baghdad in the coming weeks. These will come from other areas of the country. Our military commanders tell me that this deployment will better reflect the current conditions on the ground in Iraq."
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.ph...=1253&
Itemid=21
"We also agreed that Iraqi security forces need better tools to do their job. And so we'll work with them to equip them with greater mobility, fire power, and protection."
How many APCs, mortars, etc?
FOX is talking about a "second front" in the Metula area (northern most tip of Israel).
If so, it is either a punch into the Bekka Valley or a pincer move to encircle center front (or both).
(I go with both, they have a time limit.)
Did any of you see this???
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/sto...-07-13-16-34-
52
Yep, they are free now...
With speak like this, it appears to becoming another Iran! Is this what we sent our soldiers to free???! To free Radical Islamists that blame all their problems and crimes on the Jewish and American people?
I need this "new" sentiment that the Iraqis hold explained to me or I will see no more reason to be there anymore and I will think it senseless and even harmful to us for us having ever went there in the first place!
So please explain these Radical Islamist views that are being held by this dude and Maliki's siding with Hezbulla!
Press Availability with Secretary Rumsfeld at the Pentagon:
SEC. RUMSFELD: "It's a -- there are more Iraqi troops that will be going into Baghdad than U.S., but both will be going in in fairly good numbers, more than hundreds."
- I still think that part or all of 1st IA Division will redeploy to Baghdad...
Lisa,
Changes in social attitudes take generations. I can remember some 25 years ago, Saudi Arabia being pushed really hard for universal education of Woman, 25 years later, their are more female University Graduates than male, yet woman still are not allowed to drive. If someone were to survey Iraqi woman older than 40, the idea of driving is rediculous, younger than 40, the prohibition on driving is rediculous.
For at least 40 years, the Iraqi people, thru a controlled Media were told all their problems were the fault of the Jews.
If Maliki were to condemn Hezbollah, he would immediately be considered an American/Zionist Puppet and lose any credibility that he has.
Try to imagine an American President using the term "African American" in 1960. The Term was "Negroes", and if a Negro showed up at an all white school, the national guard had to be called out to stop a lynching.
Maliki's National Guard has it's hands full right now.
DJ Elliott,
FOX is talking about a "second front" in the Metula area (northern most tip of Israel).
If so, it is either a punch into the Bekka Valley or a pincer move to encircle center front (or both).
I think it’s first objective is to drive toward the Litani River and cut across Hezbollah front lines and cut their direct connection to Syria. If you look at a map there is a bottleneck of only a few miles in the Hezbollah front lines between Metula and the Litani River. If the Israeli’s cut across that area and blow out all the bridges across the Litani they will isolate the South Lebanon south of the Litani river. Supplies coming in from the north will have to cross the river. Supplies coming in from the Syrian boarder will actually have to either cross the Litani twice or take a route much further north before going into the south
"Supplies coming in from the Syrian boarder will actually have to either cross the Litani twice or take a route much further north before going into the south."
- Look at the road network and distances. Hizbollah already has to cross the river twice without Israel crossing the border.
- The reporting indicates this build-up streaches into the Golan. That means the Bekka Vally is the primary target.
- A pinch-off and physical (troop on ground) encirclement of the Hizbollah center would set up the next puch to the coast along the Litani River (I would go north/I suspect they are going south of the river.) This would physically isolate Tyre and surroundings.
- Remember the objective is to destroy as much of Hizbollah as possible. The river is not a solid obsticle, it can be forded at places without bridges.
- And the Bekka is a major target area.
An American Zionest Puppet? Hardly!
I was born in 1967 and I remember a time when people still had "maids" down here and my parents went to segregated schools. I think it was LBJ that set the governer of Alabama straight on intergration even though it was unpopular. Yes, it takes many generations but what happens until then. Are we supposed to support a country that hates "American Zionests" or Jewish People? That hate Jews and have hated them forever...
I would've never guessed that this would be their attitudes after the atrocities that Saddam put them through. And I never thought that they would blame their aggressions against each other on us and on the Jews. They obviously held this hatred in their hearts and we just freed them to be able to express it and to possibly one day use that hatred against us or the Jews. Maliki showed no delight or gratefulness towards us fighting for their freedom yesterday. This is very disappointing to me and I think we opened Pandoras Box and we are yet to see the repercussions of it and their scope of hate for Christians and Jews. We need to leave that place!
They just feel like they have been oppressed by Saddam and then oppressed by the USA...that is intolerable for me.
I just want to say you stay on your side of the world and we'll stay on ours...but I know that is not how it works.
Now ALL other countries besides the US are calling for a cease fire in Lebanon and Israel. Why in the world did Israel pick a part of this damn world where they are surrounded by people that hate them and desire their destruction? I know the anwer to that but still... And this decision that we stand alone on will only strengthen the hate towards the American and Israel Zionests!
Sd and Dj
Do you understand where I am coming from? While I understand the time from which an individual or country has to take to change its' mind and attitude...this means that it could be a 100 years!
Plus aren't there already tendencies towards Islamic Extremism inside the newly freed Iraq? Did we free that? Did we free a society to oppress their people using religion? Did we free a society of which many hated us all along? And are we going to avoid answering these questions because we are afraid we may see we may have went about this wrong?
Even Bill O'Reilly says we are in a low-level civil war and I never thought I would hear those words from him!
What have we done?
Lisa | 07.26.06 - 1:33 pm | #
- Quit watching the news (it is bad for the blood pressure):
1. They never get it right.
2. They err to the side of extremism.
3. "If it bleeds, it leads."
4. Always bad news.
5. If they can't find bad news they make it up or speculate on how it could go wrong.
6. "The sky is falling."
7. (do I need to continue)
- You are buying the spin.
Look at the chart and tell me, when did a handfull of hotspots become a civil war?
- As to extreme religious attitudes, I have lived in parts of the US that were more extreme than most parts of the ME.
It would be safer for me to walk down the streets of most ME cities than most US cities.
Attitudes vary like any society and the press reports the worst cases.
- Read the daily police reports for any major US city. Then read the AP for Baghdad. The difference is Baghdad gets page 1 (above the fold), while the US city gets articles buried in the regional section of the local paper.
DJ Elliott,
I took your advice and had a closer look at the maps of South Lebanon even took a 3D look with Google Earth. It was an educational experience. Yes, the Bekka is a major target area. I essentially agree with what you have said with only a few differences on details.
A few things I noticed:
1. With the exception of the coastal road this is rough mountainous terrain. Lots of little winding mountain dirt roads and small villages between the Litani river and Israel. This will be slow going.
2. I wish I had a good ethnographic map of Lebanon but it looks like Israel is purposely choosing to fight through the Mountain Shiite villages as opposed to the Christian villages near the coast and in the valleys. This appears to be much more difficult but does force Hezbollah to ruin sympathetic villages.
3. There is a series of defensive roads that run along the Lebanese side of the boarder. My guess is these are defensive roads left over from the Israeli occupation zone. They do run the entire length of the boarder from coast to Syria. No doubt they are now part of Hezbollah’s defensive positions. I imagine Israel has cut these at many places and will in more. This prevents supplies and personnel from easily shifting from one defensive area to another.
4. The Litani river is more of an obstacle than you may be aware. Have a look at it in 3D. It’s a very deeply cut mountain river. I’m sure you can ford it with small numbers of men but you aren’t going to move large amount of materials across that river at too many places.
5. I agree that the invasion path will stay south of the river. They only way to work your way along the north side of the Litani would be with airborne troops. Nice 3D view, go take a look with Google earth.
"I’m sure you can ford it with small numbers of men but you aren’t going to move large amount of materials across that river at too many places."
- The equipment Hizbollah has south of the river, are write offs.
Objective is to eliminate enough Hizbollah fighters to discredit them and reduce them down to a size LA can handle. If they get away then they can re-arm in south Beruit/Syria.
- The equipment is not the target. Hizbollah is. And Hizbollah does not wear uniforms, so they are "civilian" casualties to the press.
Gentleman DJ
I know that I don't now what to believe anymore
Yep, I watch way too much news!
And yes, there are some places here that are very dangerous and there are some places here that are very religious...I live in a place where there is a church on every corner!
As far as Hizbollah or Hezbullah...however it's spelled...is it possible to fight them as they fight...guerrilla style? Wouldn't that be more effective than the traditional way? To use their tactics against them...
What does equate as a civil war anyway?
I am still not very happy with the attitudes against Jews and the US that I am hearing.
I'll check back later.
And the destruction is very bad in Lebanon. It is very sad to see. Hurts the heart, you know.
"As far as Hizbollah or Hezbullah...however it's spelled...is it possible to fight them as they fight...guerrilla style? Wouldn't that be more effective than the traditional way? To use their tactics against them..."
- There is no set transliteration of arabic. That is why G/K/Q get swaped because they are the same in arabic. Hence the differing spellings.
- The term for forces that conduct those type of ops is "Special Forces" or "Commando". That is what is leading the IDF right now...
DJ,
I picked this out an IHT article on baghdad
http://www.iht.com/articles/
2006...726military.php
http://www.iht.com/articles/
2006...726military.php
"The additional American forces sent here will include units equipped with Stryker armored vehicles, military police and, essentially, what is left of the American military's reserve in Kuwait."
Who's guarding Mosul?
Strykers:
Here is a possibility (although I dont think it is likely):
172nd SBCT is currently rotating out and 3/2nd SBCT is rotating in. Could be that 3/2nd will go to Bagdad while 172nd is extended in Mosul for a couple of months.
If the IHT article is correct, then about 1 bde of US troops will go to Bagdad, some strykers and some from 2nd/1st AD. That means less than a full brigade of Strykers will go, maybe only 1 or 2 battalions. Therefore, I think this is more likely:
Not all of 172nd in in Mosul. 4/23th reg is in Tel Afar and 4/14th reg is in Rawa/W Anbar. Either or both could go to Bagdad.
This would still leave one bat in Tel Afar (from 1st/1stAD). And either the marines or an IA bat could take over in Rawa.
2nd/1st ID has been activated to go to Iraq. Could be that 2nd/1st will backfill for any Strykers that go to Bagdad.
cjr,
Thanks.
It's just that the Strykers have always been a bit lean when looking at per capita troop ratios in Ninewa.
After receiving some very bad news today about a family member, a very sweet young man who lost his dad in a helicopter accident during times of peace when he was just a baby, who fought cancer last year and today learned the cancer has returned...my how it feels like when it rains, it pours.
I guess what I am looking for is hope and reasons for all the bad in the world. Why when I held the hand of my best friend when she left this world and oh how she wanted to stay for her daughter, why when my young cousin fights again to live for his babies... why do others seek to kill? There are so many who are struggling to survive. To just live...
I pray and hold onto hope that in these times of trouble, despair, and grief, these times of death and destruction will soon pass from all countries near and far and we can rest our souls if just for a moment.
We are after all human beings and fragile is life that people should strive not to waste one more moment killing the life of another for senseless, hate-filled reasons. If the world could hear me, this is what I would say- Enough, our souls are weary!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/
20060...HNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
Brigade may be extended in Iraq
Guess who?
172nd...
Combination of extended 172nd deployment and deployment of 2/1AD...
Which IA units is my question?
I keep coming back to the Fallujah meeting when this started.
1st IA Div (IIF)...
http://www.ktva.com/alaska/ci_4089971
"Nearly 300 soldiers from the 172nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team will return from their deployment to Iraq next week."
If they are due home on Tuesday, they are aready in Kuwait and whatever eqipment they have is already on a ship.
Trying the Strykers in Baghdad is a good idea though. They've done a good job in Ninewah with a population of 3.85 million with one BCT. It would be worth while to see if it was actually the vehicle that made the difference.
I'd send half 2/1 to Mosul and send half the 3/2 SBCT to Baghdad to find out.
Remind me how many our soldiers do we have per Iraqi in Baghdad to maintain the peace there? How many ID soldiers are involved with securing Baghdad? And what is the population of Baghdad?
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.ph...=1310&
Itemid=41
IA TRADOC
Okay i found this out so correct me if I am wrong...
*Baghdad population 5,450,000
*The Iraqi government and coalition advisers are reviewing and making adjustments to Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki's month-old security plan for Baghdad, Caldwell said. About 51,000 Iraq soldiers, police and U.S. troops are involved in this effort, he said
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/
...60720_5704.html
This is the link where I retrieved the info from.
Now here is the problem...is definitely not enough coalition troops and Iraqi troops to control a population of 5,450,000. Then what about the rest of the country? And why in world wasn't this done sooner?
Lisa,
The ISF ratio in Baghdad is 6/1000 residents. The national average is 10/1000 residents. With US troops(outside the wire ground types) that goes up to 7/1000 residents.
The NYC ratio is 5 police/1000 residents. The London ration is 3 police/1000 residents. N. Ireland got as high as 12 police/1000 residents and last I checked was 8 police/1000 residents.
But those places are not at war like Baghdad...
check this out that I found...
http://www.cfr.org/publication/
1...ng_baghdad.html
Lisa,
The population of Greater Baghdad is 7.2 million. 51,000 ISF makes 7/1000 residents. With 7,200 US Forces it makes 8/1000 residents.
51,000 includes police forces and you know that they are very tainted. 51,000 is all the forces including the coalition forces. There are aproximately 7,000 coalition troops...
They are not trying police the area as much as they are trying squash a rebellion and crush militias or death squads with a little over 50,000 US troops in combination with other coalition and IDF troops and IDF police in a population of over 7 million people??? Where there is an average of 100 Iraqis a day being killed or blown up? There needed to be more US troops there when the uprising started to stump it down.
What I mean is they are not there to hand out traffic tickets, arrest muggers, solve the occasional murder mystery or bank robbery...they are there to stop sectarian violence and they will need to have more boots on the ground to make this work.
Regular crime is not the issue...so the forces must be overwhelming...
I tell you what the problem is and we'll be facing it soon enough if Baghdad is to be won. The politicians won't bring back the draft when it is needed. We keep the same troops over there and keep fighting the same battles but the enemy is growing larger and we are not.
The draft would just add to our losses for no real gain.
You do not want people you cannot trust at your back and the cost of increasing the numbers of bodies would be at the expense of properly equipping them.
Most of the modern world is disbanding their conscript system for very good reasons. It does not add to your real power and costs more...
And gives the anti-war crowd a rally cry.
Press Release
For Operation Iraqi Freedom, the major units announced today include:
1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
4th Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, Fort Hood, Texas
Regimental Combat Team 2, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina
Regimental Combat Team 6, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina
1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division from Fort Stewart, Georgia has been placed in a prepare-to-deploy status for possible deployment later this year.
Additionally, the Secretary of Defense approved a request by the Commander of Multi-National Forces-Iraq (MNF-I) to extend the deployment of the 172nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team operating in Iraq for up to 120 additional days.
The Department recognizes the continued contributions of the 172nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team and their family members. This extension reflects the continued commitment of the United States to the security of the Iraqi people.
Hey guys, I have a blog though pitiful as of now can you add me to your links and I will try to figure out how to add you.
http://life-politics-war-and-oth...s.blogspot.com/
Whatcha think? That's me and now you know who you are talking to!
SD, give me a while to figure out how to link you to mine...that is if you wan me to
Have those forces listed above been to Iraq already?
Lisa,
Everyone has been to Either Iraq or Afghanistan already. The active duty is now working thru it's second rotations.
Well crap! I am going to get it right!
I did It! I have my own Blog!
You are on there SD anyone else that I need to add?
"Everyone has been to Either Iraq or Afghanistan already. The active duty is now working thru it's second rotations."
That is what I figured...I am so sorry for them...
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