SD
Could you or DJ advise how many Iraqi troops have been deployed to Baghdad and how many are expected to be deployed during the Surge.
Thanks.
Depends on how you count:
- IA Already there at start of announced surge:
6th IAD: 5 Bdes/21 Bns (16-20,000)
1-9 IA Mech Bde: 3 Bns (2500)*
4-1 IA Bde: 3 Bns (2000 since filled out to 2500)
- INP Already there:
8 Bdes/23 Bns (14-18,000 total) As they finish QLII training they are filled out to 2300 per Bde. Three of nine INP Bdes have graduated QLII.
Since added by IA:
1-2 IA Bde: 4 Bns (3000)
4-2 IA Bde: 2 Bns (1800) still enr/in training at Rustimaya/poss relief for 4-1 IA Bde.
3-1-3 IA Bn (750) added to 3-4
3-4 IA Bde: 1 Bn (1000)
4-10 IA Bde: 3 Bns from three different Bdes (3000). Still in
training at Besmaya
3-9 IA Tank Bde: 3 Bns (2000).*
* 9th IA Mech Division is stationed in Baghdad Province but not in Baghdad City.
IA is deploying for 90 day periods. That means 4-1 is due to rotate out in first week of Apr. Factor in the turnover time and one of the Bdes arriving is their relief.
Given an 18 month period of this operation and all IA Bdes/Bns will cycle thru. Gives them training in deployment planning, preparation, execution, range time at IA's only Bde sized range and field operations time in Urban Combat plus they get full manning fill.
7500 replacements are trained to fill out the Baghdad deployers every 5 weeks.
Good training.
Terry,
It is a tough number to come by. The big variable is where are the 7,500 troops that graduate Iraqi run basic training every 5 weeks going to. Anectdotal evidence is that they are going to units either depoyed to Baghdad or about to deploy to Baghdad.
The other issue is the INP, there is always one Brigade that is being pulled off line, retrained, re-equipped, manning topped off then sent back to Baghdad. Those are supposed to be 3,000 a piece.
The plan for Baghdad city calls for 10 US Battalions + 10 IA Brigades.
So for Baghdad City, the Units are at some stage of being manned at 110%, which would be 759 per battalion * 1.1 = 834 * 30 battalions = 25,020 Iraqi Army. Plus between 21,000-24,000 INP + local police.
SD and DJ
Thank you very much. Kindest regards to both of you.
SD, DJ, you both have stated numerous times that most of Iraq is calm. I'm curious as to what your opinion of this report from the The Washington Institute of Near East Policy. It has a very distinguished Board of Advisors:
http://
www.washingtoninstitute.o...tiveNav=aboutUs
and here is the abstract for the article:
"In May 2006, Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki declared a state of emergency in the country's southern Basra province. This status has been maintained ever since, amid spiraling violence and local political troubles. Why has southern Iraq seemingly deteriorated since 2003, when British coalition forces took on the task of bringing law, order, and, eventually, Iraqi self-rule to the area? And what can be done to change the situation on the ground?
In this Washington Institute Policy Focus, Michael Knights and Ed Williams diagnose the many problems afflicting southern Iraq, a key population center and the main source of revenue for the central government. Beginning with prewar realities and the immediate aftermath of the coalition invasion, they discuss the British military and civil plans for the region and how those plans have been challenged -- and often thwarted -- in the years since by rampant disorder, dangerous local political developments, well-organized Islamist movements, outside interference from countries like Iran, and the partisanship and weakness of government security forces. With promising new initiatives balanced against the sober reality of a British troop drawdown, the south's fortunes will have profound implications for the future of Iraq as a whole."
You can find the whole thing here:
http://www.washingtoninstitute.o...C04.php?
CID=267
Ash,
Unless I've missed something, the British reduced the number of troops they have in Maysan, and extended the length of time they intend to stay in Basra.
It is easier to keep track of what is going on in Iraq if you look at it from the standpoint of 18 separate conflicts.
Maysan,Qadisiya and Ninewa will be going to provincial Iraqi control shortly. My guess as soon as the 1st units that rotated to Baghdad rotate back to their home bases.
You've missed a fundamental part of the "Bahgdad" Security plan...each unit that is rotated into Baghdad is plussed up in size and refitted with equipment, then receives substantial additional urban combat/policing training.
They are only scheduled to remain on the streets of Baghdad for 90 days until they return home.
Does that unit then represent better security for the residents of its home base when it returns? We don't know yet...but in theory it should.
Take a look at the article SD, I think you will at least find the analysis rigorous.
Ash, that is one big doc! Thanks for sending it our way. I will try to read it over the next couple of days.
I think that SD tried to answer your question.
You should look over:
http://www.defenselink.mil/home/
...inal_Signed.pdf
Simply put, Basrah has deteriorated and now has as many attacks per capita as Ninewa. You are right that there are real problems there. The trand in Basrah is stable to up, the trend in Ninewa is down.
However, Maysan has very little violence (media reports to the contrary)
Look over the report, the news from the South (excluding Basrah . . . Babil has a few problems near Baghdad . . . but that is more an ISF shortage issue; once 8th IAD is up to 4 brigade HQs, 12 combat battalions in its battlespace all of the South except Basrah will be on a positive track), Kurdistan, Ninewah and Tamin are pretty good.
To change the topic and describe the general state of affairs in Iraq:
Attacks 11.11.06 to 2.09.07 [page 15]
Salah ad Din averaged 23
Diyala 17
Al Anbar 36
Baghdad 45
Ninewah 11
Al Basrah 8
Tamin 5
Salah ad Din attacks have increased slightly (from 20) as US GI presence has been significantly drawn down. More ISF needed there. Attacks in Diyala increasing significantly (already known). Al Anbar attacks starting to decline. Baghdad was a record before the recent crackdown.
PIC
Next three provinces for PIC are Ninewah (positive surprise! I thought this would happen sooner than expected as you know.), Maysan (makes sense with low violence) and Qadisiyah (expected) [Page 24] All by Spring (May).
Wasit and Karbala PIC has been delayed (implied). Karbala has little violence, so its delay is confusing. Perhaps because of 8th IAD battalions (and soldiers from existing units) being sent to Baghdad? I would be surprised if PIC didn't happen by June.
Wasit is now seeing a slight amount of violence. It was expected to have PIC by Dec 2006, and later by early this year. Perhaps because of 8th IAD battalions (and soldiers from existing units) being sent to Baghdad? Or maybe to guard the Iraq/Iran borders better. I still think Wasit has PIC by June.
Al Anbar PIC early next year. I'm glad this delay has been made public. Thre previous time table made no sense.
Still insisting that Baghdad and Diyala have PIC this year. I am skeptical. I think Baghdad might beat Diyala to the punch. Baghdad is much less violent than Diyala per capita (especially now).
Tamin is not very violent per capita. But I suspect that political wrangling will hold up PIC until late fall. Although it is much better prepared for PIC than Salah ad Din. Salah ad Din might get PIC first.
Thanks Anand, that also is one big doc you send my way. I shall spend some time this weekend cosying up to the compter and having a nice read.
Ash,
I've had a stroll in the des ert with Bob MacFarlane, I don't need to read the whole article to know what his take would be.
The fundamental regional question is whether the Saudis and Iranians want to be neighbors.
I believe the answer is that they do not.
In the event of a failed Iraqi state, each side will support whoever they have to to insure the other does not become a neighbor.
The Iranians...not having access to the internal thinking of the US Defense Community is hedging its bets.
The Saudis can pick up the phone and talk to Hillary or George and get the straight answer.
Until quite recently...the Saudis have been silent on the issue of the possibility of becoming a neighbor with Iran....they don't want it.
They want to quote from Star Trek.a "Neutral Zone".
They didn't support Saddam all those years because they thought he was a great guy...they supported him because they didn't want to share a border with Iran.
They didn't want a border with Iran in 1980...they don't want one now.
They've bought off the support Iran has from China with a sweet preferential oil contract. They bought off Russian support for Iran with a nice big arms purchase...have you noticed that the Iranian payments to Russia for Bushir seem to have trouble clearing the bank?
It costs $3 a barrel to get Saudi Oil out of the ground...it costs $15 a barrel to get Iranian oil out of the ground.
It is well within the means of the Saudis to completely bankrupt the Iranian economy.
The Iranian influence problem is being worked.
Hillary's recent blathering about supporting a long term stabilization force of 75,000 US troops is part of the negotiations.
Figuring out a number that will satisfy the various regional players that Iraq will not become a failed state...but at the same time...not be a threat to Iran.
Just look at how the Iraqi AirForce is being built...F-16's...F-22's...no...Cessna's and C-130's.
The same goes for the Army...almost no offensive capability.
The paranoid nutcases in Iran are quite slow on the uptake.
The whole "Regional Balance of Power" with Iraq and Iran armed to the teeth was a seriously flawed idea. I would note that the ASSHOLE Brezinski from the Carter administration is still trying to sell it.
Iraq will be armed for self defense, just as the Japanese and Germans are.
That is why I am seeing reports of wheeled APCs for most of the Division, 300 tracked APCs this year (prob BMP1 with ATGM) and NO TANKS. They found two more Bns of T55 somewhere but that is not an offensive mix.
The FY07sup and FY08 talk about adding Artillery, mortars, MI, MP, Engrs...
NO TANKs.
No combat jets.
I am making my calls based on what we are asking for money to do vice what some eggheads feal like speculating on. Hard data vice opinion...
SD wrote:
"The fundamental regional question is whether the Saudis and Iranians want to be neighbors.
I believe the answer is that they do not. "
Like it or not, they are neighbors, regardless of Iraq's status. Heck, the Bush admin even carries that logic further to justify our intervention in the region. Gotta luv globalization. - we are all a bunch of neighbors trying to build nice little white picket fences.
More later...
No more later Ash...just no more.
I am so sick and tired of you seeing the world thru GWB. He was a drunk on a barstool in Texas while millions died while Carter lied.
I still can't get a copy of my service record.
I've had enough.
Just so you know Ash,
I have plenty of friends that served in Iran...the Iranian people are wonderful...
I've tried to explain to you...but you have some hatred thing on GWB...I was never particuliarly inpressed with his daddy.
But you come here and act like you are talking to some high school students.
I left the service because the Middle East was too complicated...and the fact that I could speak a bit of Arabic pretty much guarenteed that I would spend half of my entire life there.
Then my daughter ended up being sent to the Middle East.
I still remember the day she graduated from Arabic School. She didn't know I could speak Arabic. She called me...so excited...and I just launched into Arabic.
I blog so that people might understand...GWB is just the current glorious leader....and despite what congress blathers on about...the political debate ends at the nations borders.
I don't need you to point out where my logic is failed...there are a million dead Iraqi's and Iranian's as a result of failed logic.
I'm pretty sure the vast majority of them wanted to make a few babies...live in a modest house...drive a modest car.
They are dead now...those opportunities no longer exist for them.
Carter lied...millions died
"still remember the day she graduated from Arabic School. She didn't know I could speak Arabic. She called me...so excited...and I just launched into Arabic."
What a great picture SD. What you would have to see her face then. A wonderful bonding moment.
Thanks for giving your family time in service.
SD to Ashole: "But you come here and act like you are talking to some high school students."
==============
Hmmmmm. I've always wondered what motivates the Ashole to keep at it. It's been posting its blather on Iraqi blogs for at least two to three years and rarely, if ever, received a sympathetic response to its so called "ideas", yet it continues to blather, on and on and on and on and on.
Some of us, such as myself, have nothing but contempt for it, not necessarily because of its ideas, but because it persists in intruding where it knows it is not welcome, like an annoying telemarketer. Why does it keep doing it?
That fact that he treats everyone as through they were school children, suggests to me that the Ashole is teaching in some university and, being isolated from the real world, is only interested in teaching its cold, hard, emotionless ideology to those it deems to be beneath it.
As with all zealots, where others would long ago have given up and taken their mission up in an arena more accepting of its ideas, it doesn't give up nor does it respect the wishes of others, let alone their contrary ideas. Its own desires trump all concerns about the real world and real people that are in it.
In some parts of the world, people who operate as it does, with its narcissistic personality, become murderous dictators. Being a loser, though, he has to hang out, like a bully on a playground, where no one likes him.
SD:
Might want to update:
It is 24 IA Bns and 3 INP Bns being added.
- 6 new IA Bdes at 3 Bns each
- A third bn for each of the five Bianary Bdes.
- A fourth bn for 3-4 Bde.
- 1 new INP Bde with 3 Bns.
The two new Division equivalents forming are
- "Rusafa Area Command" (joint INP/IA MP Division) forming at Samarra for east Baghdad and
- 11th? IA Division forming at Kirkuk.
I am still looking for the tape or transcript of the blog-conference held with BG Wolff on 16th. So far, I am working from Bill's notes...
Those additions are
- 20% increase in the MND-N area of IA Divisions. (add a Division)
- 25% increase in permanent assigned IA to Baghdad. (add a permanent Division to east Baghdad.)
- 25% increase of IA Bns in southern IA Divisions. (8th and 10th grow to 24 Bns vice 19 total.)
PM Maliki appears to want more troops and sooner.
Smart man.
Terry,
From mid February
http://www.defenselink.mil/
trans...anscriptid=3891
GEN. FIL: Yeah. We actually have seen a large increase in not only the numbers of the forces who are inside Baghdad but also the type that are here. And the Iraqis have added what now -- 13,000 Iraqi soldiers, 20,000 national policemen, in addition to the 41,000 Iraqi police service troops. And of course we've increased the American forces here, too. We're well over 35,000 now. So it's -- you know, it's 112,000 security forces that are devoted to this effort, and growing.
The Iraqi Army in Baghdad should be 30 battalions of ~ 800 each...So a total of 24,000 Iraqi Army plus 41,000 Iraqi local police plus 20,000 Iraqi National Police...so about 85,000 Iraqi security forces total.
I would be careful about characterising this as a "Baghdad Surge" as a battalion of Strykers has already been removed from Baghdad and sent to Diyala.
IA Bn count in Baghdad is actually higher than 30 but, ~30 IA Bns is the on-line part.
Rest is at Besmaya, left-seat/right-seat for rotation, outside of Baghdad proper (but adjacent) or not exclusively assigned to Baghdad (e.g. I SOF Bde).
I am looking for how they are adding the 5xBns worth of Badger Engineering Vehicles to the Baghdad area (ILAV/Cougar)...
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