Yup. I just read that, too. I'll be watching to see if our esteemed Canadian Broadcasting Corporation features this in any of their upcoming news reports. If they do, will it be spun in some sort of anti-American tripe? Will they pass it off as hardly worth mentioning? Or will they actually admit that the war was perhaps just a weee bit ever so slightly justified. If it's the latter, I'll need someone to lift me off the floor.
This would make a good thriller movie someday. And to think it's now going to be used for the production of nuclear energy in Canada! Whew!!!
I haven't heard a thing yet...but I've been busy.
I have to weigh in on that last post SD. I don't care how many experts want to blame ethanol for high food prices. They're all full of hooey. Oil prices are 7X higher than they were 7 years ago. That's the reason....and the only reason...grain prices are going through the roof. We don't use rice for ethanol. The world harvested a record amount of rice last year. Yet,rice prices doubled,and have gone up a LOT more than corn since oil got 7X more expensive.
"Rice, the staple food for half the world, rose 2.4 percent to a record $21 per 100 pounds in Chicago today, double the price a year ago and a fivefold increase from 2001. It may reach $22 by November, said Dennis DeLaughter, owner of Progressive Farm Marketing in Edna, Texas. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne...SK64&
refer=home
Sorry Maury...
Take ALL the corn in the world...it'll give you maybe 3 million barrels of oil a day...TOPS.
So we can burn 100% of the worlds corn to get 15% of the oil we consume.
Or we could cut the weight of our cars by 30% and end up with the same result.
Just go to aluminum/carbon fiber/composite bodies and chassis..same strength...same safety...30% less fuel.
There is your 3 million barrels a day.
But aluminum/composite bodies and chassis cause problems for big steel and big autos...they don't rust. Building a car that doesn't rust out in 10 years is just plain cutting the throats of Detroit and every other big
manufacturer.
So the best answer is to burn the entire worlds supply of corn.
"Let them eat coal"
"So the best answer is to burn the entire worlds supply of corn."
I never said that SD. But,you can't argue with the fact that corn is just one of a number of commodities that have tripled in price. Some,like rice,have gone up five times in price.
The U.S. is the only country using corn ethanol. A bushel of corn used for ethanol provides 18 lbs. of feed corn. So,using 30% of the corn crop for ethanol only reduces U.S. corn feed availability by 20%. Since the U.S. only grows 40% of the world's corn,the world's corn feed is only reduced by 8%. Since the ethanol mandates,the world corn harvest is up a lot more than 8% SD. Blaming ethanol for the price increases is what's called a red herring.
Why should corn be the only crop NOT subject to the laws of economics? When input costs increase 7X,it's a tad unreasonable to expect prices not to rise at least 40% as much,since inputs are 40% of the cost of grains.
Btw, 100,000 Mexican farmers held a protest recently. With the end of tariffs due to NAFTA,the're terified that cheap American corn will put them out of business. You can still buy 4 lbs. of corn for the price of a gumball. About 50 cents.
This conversation is surreal. Food prices are up because of:
1) increased meat eating in the developing world
2) increased food buying in general among poor in the developing world thanks to the most rapid global economic growth in recorded history
3) biofuels
4) supply constraints
Within supply constraints:
a) unusual one off weather events
b) increased energy and other raw commodity costs (fertilizers) are pushing up cost of goods sold. This is reducing global aggregate supplies.
PS. the news from Kabul and Pakistan (twin bombings) is very sad.
Maury,
http://www.gumball.com/
bulk_gumb...k_gumballs.aspx
One can buy 850 Gum balls for $29 or 4 bushels of Corn. I couldn't find anyone selling gum balls in rail car quantity which is the quantity required to actually buy corn at $7/bushel.
I can however buy 5 pounds of sugar for $2.89.
Anand,
My first wife lived in Iowa...flooding is not a "one of" thing. If one is multiplying acreage and yields and coming out with "available product" without taking into account the endless cycles of droughts and floods than one is seriously over-estimating capacity.
I grew up in a corn town...the fields flooded every spring...which was good...the flood waters brought nutrients for the soil. It was bad if the rains and floods came after the crop was planted..which happened.
Unfortunately...EPA has mandated how much corn MUST be processed into ethanol regardless of whether this years harvest is good or bad.
In a good harvest year there is almost certainly excess corn that can be converted to ethanol.
This year the floods came late..there is going to be a bad harvest. The amount of corn that MUST be converted into ethanol is set in EPA regulation.
Which means the supply shortfall will have to come out of food.
The amount of corn dedicated to ethanol is not subject to the laws of supply and demand. I.E. Since it is government mandated..the demand side is not elastic.
Anand,
Yes the suicide bombings in Pakistan and Kabul are sad.
"While nearly all experts agree that increased biofuel production by companies such as Archer Daniels Midland Co. and Pacific Ethanol Inc. has contributed to the higher food prices, there is little consensus on the scope of its role.
The ethanol industry says ethanol and other biofuels account for just 4 percent of the price surge, while the Department of Agriculture says the figure is closer to 20 percent. Last week a group of international scientists recommended halting the use of crops for biofuel, saying it would cut corn prices 20 percent."
http://www.boston.com/news/natio...thanol_mandate/
WoW! The best case scenario is a whopping 20% cut in corn prices if we stop making corn ethanol. And corn prices are what,250% higher than they were two years ago? Of course,needing 5% more gasoline means we'll import an extra million barrels of crude oil each day. That will add $145M per day to our trade imbalance,and drive oil to $250 per barrel...but at least corn will be up to 20% cheaper for a few months. Then the laws of economics kick in....and the increased cost of inputs doubles the price of corn again. Woohoo.
You guys can do econometric regressions to estimate the contribution of each factor to food prices over many years. But because the contribution of each factor varies over time, I am not sure you could estimate the real time current contribution of these different factors.
You would also need to agree on how to define these different factors for the regression.
You guys seem to agree on what is affecting food prices and in what direction they affect food prices and are merely arguing over the contribution of each factor.
Soldiers Dad, the bombing in Kabul will have major consequences (one of the top 5 most important bombings inside Afghanistan since 9/11.) I hope the consequences are positive. I hope India steps up its assistance to Afghanistan, and its assistance to the ANSF. That would be the right response.
Anand,we need to somehow get through the next few years. If world economies can survive intact that long,alternatives will begin to make a difference. A number of companies will begin commercial production of cellusosic ethanol and production of oil and gas with modified yeast by 2011. Those businesses promise quick scalability,and will increasingly diminish the role of fossil fuels. Also,PHEV's will be hitting car lots about the same time. Consumers will be all over them. Problem is,we've got to get from here to there....and oil will probably triple again before we get there.
For goodness sakes Iraq wants us to leave...
Okay...let's get. Pack our crap up and go. I mean it.
Maury, the oil man in my family says we just need the price to stop...you know stabilize.
I think it will not and we are looking towards a worldwide depression if somebody doesn't slow down.
on a different note...
And I want to know why Pres. Bush is going to China for the opening of the Olympics. DO you know how bad that loks?
Let 'em get after it.
Talk about oil shooting up!
Woooh.
{{for the agreement will be respect for the sovereignty of Iraq,"}}
Yeah, right.
Get ready for that to be a cluster----
"And I want to know why Pres. Bush is going to China for the opening of the Olympics. DO you know how bad that loks?"
That is "EXACTLY" what he should do. China is an emerging global superpower, and the vast majority of Chinese are "VERY" proud of these olympics. Far more proud than many of us can imagine. Pres Bush going there is a sign of respect. Kudos to him for doing it.
Lisa, I don't understand why you think oil prices will keep shooting up.
Maury,
My next door neighbors..nice young 20 something couple with a 2 year old baby.
They own 2 GMC-Yukons...they both work in banking. They don't go camping or have a boat or mow their lawn. They are consummate 'city folks'. It's a simple middle class neighborhood.
They are too young to remember the first "Oil Shock".
It's just part of life that people want the biggest, baddest vehicles on the block. They couldn't afford Hummers so they bought His and Hers GMC Yukon's.
With oil at $30/barrel the economics of fuel efficient vehicles don't make sense..at $60 a barrel if starts to make sense..at $120 a barrel it makes real sense.
We can put CVT transmissions into every new car today and cut fuel consumption 10%.
As far as electric cars..we don't have the generating capacity to run them.
The average US household consumes ~1,000 Kilowatt Hours/month.
1,000 KW Hours = 1,341 Horsepower Hours.
Last I checked it takes 7 horsepower for a reasonably aerodynamic car to maintain 55MPH on level ground. Double that for 65 MPH. Unfortunately, the engine in your car isn't sized on how much power it needs to stay at 55 MPH...it's size by how much power you need to get to 55 MPH. If I want to go 65 than I have to get a Scooter with a 12 HP Engine.
I just ordered a 150CC Scooter with a 9 HP Engine..it will get itself and my fat ass up to 55 MPH reasonable well. Let's call the total weight 500 Pounds.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/
0...RI6bk7RMzQEdPtA
The current average weight of a US car is 4,000 pounds. In 1981 the average was 3,000 pounds.
We have cars that were 1,000 pound light 30 years ago...without getting into carbon fiber and composites.
well, it just went down and I guesss tomorrow it'll go up again.
And China is a commnunist country with a very bad rep. It makes us look like he approves or otherwise does not care.
Yes,we can be a lot more efficient SD,but it ain't happened yet. What makes you think dissing ethanol will suddenly make Americans become more efficient?
"As far as electric cars..we don't have the generating capacity to run them."
Utilities are excited about PHEV's. They hope to use them for load balancing. We do have enough capacity to charge electric cars,since most charging will happen in off peak hours.
See that's the whole thing. We didn't want this thing with China. I don't care if they are immerging as a super power...we helped along. We sold out our jobs for cheap products and now look at us.
And pride...what pride? They are communists. They are still communist and they are now conbining capitalism with communism.
And our entire town's electric bills went up $100 this month.
Last thing on their mind is CHINA"S pride.
You know what's on my mind-how we are going to pay that bill, buy my plavix and put gas in the car.
We are not excited for China. The companies that have benefited from the cheap labor may be but we aren't.
This is not like Nixon goes to China.
Maybe that was the dumbest he ever done...I dunno....but TODAY gas keeps going up and so does food and electricity.
That's why we will be in trouble with the food. It will hit the poor countries and have a cascade effect.
I'm with you on China Lisa. We traded our jobs for cheap Walmart trinkets. I wouldn't mind if it were free trade,but China doesn't play fair. One of my pet peeves with Japan is their consumer market subsidising U.S. sales. I managed a Radio Shack in LA once. We sold a lot of electronics to Japanese tourists,who could buy their favorite Japanese brand for a lot less in the U.S.. Free trade is a nice concept. Even nicer would be our government insidting on fair trade.
Maximizing the electric power grid
Utility companies would also benefit from PHEVs. Southern California Edison (SCE) has studied the feasibility of electric cars and PHEVs for years.
Edward Kjaer, director of Electric Transportation for SCE, notes that the power grid is sized to provide peak power during hours of high demand during the day, leaving a significant capacity unused at night. Recharging electric vehicles at night could help balance the load on the electrical grid.
"There are 20,000 megawatts available from 9 p.m. to noon," Kjaer said, which could easily be recharging 12 to 15 million plug-in hybrids. "This represents an energy security asset that is domestic based. As more and more transportation is electrified, what we ought to be doing is driving it to that off-peak asset."
http://www.edmunds.com/advice/hy...10/
article.html
I believe this is the answer to the oil dilemna. Modified yeast will produce gasoline,diesal,and even crude oil from plants and plant waste. Higher quality products at a fraction of the price. If we can hang in there long enough.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/
tol...icle4133668.ece
I think the majority are with on the fair trade Maury.
It's a select few that don't mind...namely the big haunchos that sit atop the big companies that make gobs of money by putting their companies inside of China.
Meanwhile we are here wondering how to turn sugar into gas and how we are going to pay for our electric bill AND water AND gas for the car AND then food THEN meds. I have wskipped my Plavix every other day because I cannot afford it. I just take an extra asprin...
Bob found some kind of thing on the net where they turned sugar water into fuel. They are going to practice on an old engine.
We said say when...they are saying when...now what?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080...n_re_mi_ea/
iraq
Maury,
I'm all for utilizing off peak energy...especially if it produced from something that is an endless supply..like nuclear.
The unfortunate part of electric vehicles is the current state of weight/energy storage capacity of batteries.
A 118 lb Toyota Prius battery stores two kw/hours of electricity. 1 kw= ~ 1.2 horse power. You can basically run a lawnmower for 45 minutes on a prius battery.
Finding a working Regenerative braking
system with a positive energy equation has been on the R & D engineering boards for 30 years.
The problem has always been in transportation energy how much energy you can store per pound and how much energy you can convert into actual movement per pound.
Gasoline holds 33 Kilowatt/hours. A gallon of gas weighs 6 pounds. As a energy storage medium it stores 5 kw/hours per pound.
A 118 pound Toyota Prius Battery stores 2 kw/hours of energy. With current technology one needs 250 pounds of batteries to store the energy equivalent of 1 pound of gas.
Conversely 1 pound of hydrogen has the energy equivalent of 3 pounds of gasoline.
The Honda Fuel Cell cars are headed in the right direction.
A converted Honda Accord. A quite popular model..running on a Hydrogen Fuel Cell. Whole package comes in at 3,500 pounds. A standard accord is 3,400 pounds.
http://www.edmunds.com/
insidelin...rticleId=123662
Still need to work out low cost onboard or at home hydrogen generation.
But then again...battery technology could get better.
Tesla car battery has 120 watt hours/kg.
Cutting edge lab research is 200 to 240 watt hours/kg.
And our entire town's electric bills went up $100 this month.
Last thing on their mind is CHINA"S pride.
Lisa | Homepage | 07.07.08 - 8:09 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
wow that is high, my bill last month with ac running at 76-77 24/7 and temps were 75-90 was about 170, and that is ohio and power is not cheap.
Just for fun turn off all the lights at night sometime in the house and look around. my place looks like Christmas with all the LEDS etc.
TODAY gas keeps going up and so does food and electricity.
Lisa | Homepage | 07.07.08 - 8:14 pm |
Not to be smart but when I read that line my mind said "and those are the ONLY things you DONT get from China"
Just imagine the cost of living if pc's were STILL 1500 -2000.00 rather than dell today selling a dual core with 20" lcd for 419 shipped. same for our lcd tvs, cell phones, printers, you name it.
They are not the problem, at least NOT now!
China use to export food. Now they import food, "creating good paying export jobs for Americans" in protectionist big government speak.
Thanks to China creating "good paying export jobs for Americans," the price of food has skyrocketed. Enjoy.
SD,I realise the challenges automakers face with batteries. Still,if the American fleet were all PHEV's right now,we wouldn't have to import a drop of oil. And it WILL happen,even if it's 10 years down the road. Throw in biofuel production,and we'll be oil exporters. The crazy leap in oil prices is probably the best thing that could've happened to us. It got us off our complacent butts.
Maury,
I'll agree that we needed $4 a gallon gasoline. Europe has been at $6 for a long time.
As far as battery technology...no where has there been more R&D into batteries and power conservation than laptop computers.
I've been all laptops in my business for years. The batteries don't last more than a couple of years before they need replacing.
The Japanese are moving towards full scale production of Fuel Cells for home use. Double the efficiency of electricy supplied by a natural gas plant..since you get heat and hot water as a free byproduct...Not a bad deal $5,000 for a combined furnace,hot water heater, generator that cuts ones utility bills in half.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23451723/
Anand:
I am going to throw one out at you...did it ever occur to you that you are wrong?
And did it occur to you that WE CREATED OUR OWN MESS.
Well, EVERBODY around here's bill flew up. If went up $100 per household.
A $100 bucks.
And that we DID NOT ask for China to make out crap...some big company came up with the bright idea...the next thing you know we our "Made in America" signs were taken down and here we are.
breath in...okay look we will have to pull away from oil as a COUNTRY.
We do not have time to play look who is bigger and look at my big rocket and how far it can go with Iran...
"I've been all laptops in my business for years. The batteries don't last more than a couple of years before they need replacing."
I knew a guy that re-built old car batteries SD. He would replace the bad cell and sell it for $20. He did a pretty brisk business too. $20 doesn't sound like much,but he'd get the old battery when someone came by his house,and it only took him 20 minutes or so to replace the bad cell. These new batteries are going to be very expensive. Surely there'll be a market for re-manufactured ones.
I think our cars will have wireless connections to the grid someday. They're doing wireless power connections for small devices like laptops already.
Lisa,
I don't have Air Conditioning. My electic bill was $50 last month.
When I worked in Japan I lived in a 450 sq foot 2 bedroom apartment. That was considered an "Executive Apartment". The rent was only $5,000 a month and it was still a 45 minute train ride into Tokyo. A parking space was another $1,000 a month. Most of my co-workers commuted 90 minutes by train to work.
In the land of Milk and Honey...people
who are considered 'poor' have an average housing space of 439 sq ft per
person.
People on welfare in America live better than I did as an executive in Tokyo.
Where do you live?
A few people I know do not run air constantly or only run it at night to sleep.
I am home all the time now and it gets hot here. Which used to be fine but I don't feel as good as I used to.
and you need to see some of the places people live in around here. pitiful.
most of them don't have air and like I said they don't run them except when they sleep.
but this is life...
I am saying that we are those who have that chicken to live on are already in trouble. Now comes the middle class. And we make less than $40 grand a year.
I am in Westminster CO
My Apt is 480sq',
This month's electric with AC in use was 53. (temps up to 90s so far this month)
My rent is 519.
Other Util is ~63.
My apt in Copenhagen cost four times those numbers and that was in the early-90s. That was considered a special deal because the owner did not have to pay tax on it if he rented to a Diplomat. Same size. (The embassy paid, a roof over the head is part of the mil contract.)
Denmark was the cheapest of the Skandinavian countries in the early-90s.
US percapa income is higher than the world's average and our prices are lower than the world's average in almost every category.
Our poor have it better than most country's middle-class and some country's rich...
Seen it. Been in 43 other countries. It is why I do not believe in socialism...
It's true,our poor live like kings compared to the third world....and even a few developed countries. Air conditioning is a luxury. Mankind...even in America,somehow did without it until the 20th century. A lot of poor people don't realize how much cheaper it is in the long run to maximize efficiencies. I switched all our lights to fluorescent and electronic. Bought a 15 SEER AC unit when the old one went out. I even mixed some neat stuff developed by NASA into some paint and painted the underside of my roof. Put the double insulated windows with argon. Cut my utility bill by 65%. Heck,the AC unit is only using half what the old one did. That's the biggest part of a summer utility bill. All those improvements cost money,but they pay off in the long run.
Lisa,
I haven't run Air Conditioning in 25 years. I did the year in th Middle East...anything south of 90 degrees is chilly for me. I also grew up in Connecticut...we couldn't afford AirCo.
Just sleep on the lawn. I own an 8 inch thick down Duvay(sp).
At the peak in my 1700 sq foot house I had 5 children and a partner. I've never spent more than $100 a week on grocery's.
If the food comes in a box..good chance that the Box costs more than the food.(Maury's farmer friends aren't happy about this..as they should be)
Believe it or not,I don't knw a single farmer SD. Don't know if I've ever met one,LOL. I'm a city boy. The reason I favor ethanol is that I think peak oil is upon us. We need every drop we can produce. With peak oil,production of fossil oil will decline about 4% per year. Tar Sands,biofuel,and ethanol will help make up the difference.
Well you know it would look mighty funny us sleeping naked on our lawn with our neighbors and all.
LOL 
We'd have the cops here I suspect.
and giggling.
Maury-
Look this should make us laugh.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25606488/?
GT1=43001
This could've happened...LOLOLOLOL
And I care about how well we have it here.
My pawpaw had to go evermorning two miles milk neighbors cow for milk for my aunt nelda to drink when she was baby during the great drepession.
They didn't sugar, butter...etc.
That is not where we want to get. Where we have to walk miles to milk someones cow for milk.
Maury,
If we don't get wawy from oil now...we will be totallty reliant on the middle east. And we are not willing to play this game anymore.
Well with all that misspelling...pardon me...
But you see what I am saying.
Anyway, I think Bob and a few friends are supposed to get together and try to figure out what else will make our cars run.
We are already changing our habits...hopefully. At least we are having to.
You wear a pair of shoes until they are worn out. Same with clothes. You buy what you need not what you want...and this is very hard since I love scented candles and perfume. But the plavix is more important...damnit I am stretching the last of it out now.
Learning how to shop wisely is getting there for Jessie too. That's good for her. Eating leftovers has always been normal here but I need some new recipes.
Now just the rest of the country will follow.
I know we have it better than the poor nations.
That is not where we want to get. Where we have to walk miles to milk someones cow for milk.
Lisa | 07.10.08 - 11:09 am | #
slow down abit! I think we may be at least 2 weeks away from that. It aint that bad, dont look for/invent stuff just to worry about. what goes up usually comes down, oil will somewhat as well come down, for sure not to 2 a gallon but lower than 4.
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