yes. endless growth is magical thinking. we are very clever in small ways and dumb as a post about the larger picture. i have long suspected that pathogens are the controlling predator of humans. SARS seems to have receded as a threat, but AIDS is coming on strong and avian flu is "poised to become a pandemic threat" says WHO (world health organization--not sez who).
i have also read that human male fertility (sperm count, i guess) is decling worldwide. good thing we have invented in vitro fertilization for childless couples, he said sarcastically.
perhaps dealing with the catastrophe of collapse will restore some meaning to our lives.
i'm happier with your brand of magical thinking than with that of economists.
oops--male fertility is declining, not "decling." male proofreading is also declining.
Wow. It's amazing to hear someone with perspective describe the world. Thanks for this post.
DPR, from my lay perspective it seems like there is an important piece of the puzzle missing in the scientific understanding of pandemics. You'd think that, given the historical evidence that influenza has existed among humans for centuries, that avian and/or swine flu would have jumped the species barrier many times, with many resulting severe pandemics. But as far as I can tell, 1918 was the only one. And speed of transportation may not be the answer as to why it spread--sea transportation was slow, and flu epidemics--not evidently not causing much mortality among Europeans-- were spread to the New World by sailing ship transportation.
Bubonic plague is endemic in the Western US among wild rodents. Several human cases occur every year, but for whatever reason it does not spread. It's kind of mysterious.
this may explain why plague is not a problem in the US at least. it is from the cdc (google bubonic plague)
"People usually get plague from being bitten by a rodent flea that is carrying the plague bacterium or by handling an infected animal. Millions of people in Europe died from plague in the Middle Ages, when human homes and places of work were inhabited by flea-infested rats. Today, modern antibiotics are effective against plague, but if an infected person is not treated promptly, the disease is likely to cause illness or death."
the little reading i have done about avian/swine/human flu suggests that the increasing density of human/swine/bird populations, due mainly to increasing human population, offers more opportunity over a shorter time for virulent, easily transmitted mutations to occur and spread.
medical science hasn't yet worked this out, and may never. religion offers explanations that include "morality" or even piety.
Population density probably does have something to do with flu mutations getting established. It just puzzles me, from what little I know about it, that some new diseases (or recurring old ones) just damp out, and others spread. But I certainly think science can discover the answer.
about the reasons for the behavior of diseases:
i am optimistic that science can discover the answer. i reject the religious views.
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