You agree with Souhan? I'm shocked! 
Seriously, though, I like your prediction. I don't agree with it, as I do not see Slowey either in the bullpen or Rochester. I don't know what Gardy/Smith will do.
I was talking to Marty Andrade about this, what are your thoughts on a six-man rotation? I know it sounds crazy and totally unconventional, but it is very interesting, to say the least. It would decrease the overall innings pitched of each pitcher, which is good for a young rotation like this. It would also allow each starter with more rest, which theoretically will allow them to go deeper into games, which in turn decreases the stress on the bullpen.
I don't necessarily support it, but what are your thoughts?
I know, it's rare and although I do like his writing style (not his doom/gloom style, but his grammar usage), I don't generally agree with Souhan.
As for the 6-man rotation, I'm with you... I don't care for it, but it would be interesting. The team would still need to waive a pitcher (again, I'd waive Bass), but with there being so much concern about limiting innings among young starters (not necessarily on this team, though) and with this being Francisco Liriano's first season back from TJ Surgery, I think it could be very beneficial. I think the rotation would also be more "fresh" heading into the post season compared to starters on other teams who aren't getting nearly as much rest.
Interesting proposal, that's for sure.
I'd waive Bonser before Bass with the way Bonser has been pitching this season. Results do matter.
I think Bonser holds more value over Bass and I think Bass has a better chance of clearing waivers.
There is absolutely no way your prediction will come true, Slowey has been our 2nd best starter besides Baker. Blackburn or Perkins would go down before Slowey would, and Perkins would also have the option of going in the bullpen because he has been there before. I can guarantee it, without a large drop in performance immediately, that Kevin Slowey will remain in the Startin rotation for the duration of the season.
I don't know about the prediction. I have heard crazier ideas, but this one doesn't really pass the "likely" test. I don't think Slowey will end up in the bullpen, though I am hard-pressed to think of who would go instead. I would have said Perkins last Thurs, but then he went and shut out the Rangers. I would have said Livan, but it seems like he has too many friends in the clubhouse for that one to happen.
The position we are in right now hurts. There are no other MLB-ready starters in the whole system, other than the five in the majors and Liriano. If I thought for a second that Boof would clear waivers, then I would say "put him on waivers and try to pass him down to Rochester." But, then again, if he has too many more outings like yesterday, he will have little value left. The next best is Brian Duensing, and he hasn't exactly dazzled this year. If there was someone (anyone!) ready in AAA in case of an injury, I would try to shop Blackburn around, trying to fill a hole or two, since I don't know if his stock COULD get much higher. But, that doesn't mean I would deal him for anything less than three prospects or so.
I think the Twins do have to get Liriano up here soon. They really don't want him to turn into Matt Garza and start to hate the team. The idea of Liriano throwing that fastball in the majors again (this time, for strikes) almost makes me foam at the mouth, but I would wait until July 27. I did the math, and Liriano would qualify for Super-2 status on the second game of the World Series (if the Twins make it that far) if brought up today. I don't like the idea of letting the service clock dictate Liriano's season, but it makes sense to keep him under control and cheap for as long as possible.
I would also waive Bass, but first I would try to find a team that would be interested in a Boof project... He has a lot of potential still, but I don't think he'll develop in MN. Boof is a strikeout/power pitcher, not a control pitcher, and MN doesn't really do power pitchers well. I would be happy with a B (or C, if push came to shove) prospect and some small amount of cash (he's under control for a couple years, right? that should add value).
There is absolutely no way your prediction will come true, Slowey has been our 2nd best starter besides Baker.
I respectfully disagree. Blackburn's been better and so has Perkins. Slowey's ERA is sitting at 4.26, while Baker, Perkins and Blackburn all are under 3.84. His command has allowed him to have a very good 1.13 WHIP, but that still doesn't do it for me. He averages under 6 innings per start and really had just a 4 game stretch that was great and besides that he's been pretty ineffective. Especially in his last 2 starts in which he's given up a combined 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings.
I like Slowey, I'm just trying to be practical here. Livan Hernandez doesn't look to be going. Blackburn, Baker and Perkins have all been better than Slowey... so I believe he will be the one Liriano replaces.
I know the prediction is bold, but I just don't see another way without there being a trade, and like I said it looks unlikely that the Twins will trade Livan Hernandez and I think we can all forget about trading one of our young starters.
Thanks for the comments, guys. I just wanted to clarify my reasoning for my prediction.
Twins starters, by xFIP:
Baker: 3.76
Slowey: 4.15
Blackburn: 4.23
Hernandez: 4.66
Perkins: 4.80
Slowey isn't going anywhere, nor should he. He really has pitched better than any starter on this team other than Baker. He's had a couple rough outings, but everyone does from time to time. His ability to limit hits and walks while missing bats at a solid rate makes him a good bet to rebound from his current short funk and get back into a sustained run of success.
Josh - When you look at it in terms of ERA, you have to remember that Baker (luckily) managed to skip the Sox series where all four starters got butchered. His ERA would be a mite bit higher if he had given up six runs in two innings. Blackburn got lucky yesterday in that only three of the six runs were earned, or his ERA would be higher. Perkins, well, he's Perkins, and like Livan and Slowey, he's alternatingly brilliant and a bust.
That said, I have been thinking about the Slowey move for a while now, and while I still don't like it, it is starting to make more sense. I still don't like it, but it is certainly bold, and the kind of move that would say "We really care about this season and the future of the team." I guess not so much the last part, by demoting Slowey, who I think the Twins see as a 2 or 3 starter in the future (or even now).
Good argument, Nick. But listening to Bill Smith's arguments recently, the team doesn't care how the pitcher does as long as the team wins. And although Slowey has had an impressive season, the last couple weeks (which this team has been focusing on) he has been very ineffective as a starter.
I'd like to see Slowey up just as much as the next guy, but being that he's the only starter who's struggled recently (besides Blackburn yesterday) and since he still has options, it's still a possibility. It's just a question of whether or not it's a probability, and I know I was in the minority when I wrote that but I don't see another way (again without trading a starter) of getting Liriano up here.
Perkins in now way deserves a demotion, neither does Baker or Blackburn. The team wants to keep Hernandez. That leaves Slowey on the bubble.
We'll see, tonight's performance could play a part and facing a Yankee lineup trying to get out of a funk is no easy task.
But I hope he proves me wrong!
Nick,
Do you think that the Twins look at xFIP? That's actually a rhetorical question... maybe they do. I'm always curious of what types of things they look at...
I know there are about 5 million reasons that Livan isn't going anywhere.
Jonas, Baker also made the Rangers (best offense in AL) look like minor leaguers. So Slowey got to skip that one.
But listening to Bill Smith's arguments recently, the team doesn't care how the pitcher does as long as the team wins. And although Slowey has had an impressive season, the last couple weeks (which this team has been focusing on) he has been very ineffective as a starter.
Slowey has had two bad starts. Prior to that he had rattled off 17 straight scoreless innings. For the Twins to demote Slowey based on two (or even three or four) rough outings would be absolutely ridiculous, considering that Hernandez seemed to be in no danger of losing his job when he posted an 11.10 ERA and .467 BAA over a span of five starts earlier in the season.
Do you think that the Twins look at xFIP? That's actually a rhetorical question... maybe they do. I'm always curious of what types of things they look at...
I don't think they do, but xFIP is indicative of how a pitcher is actually performing as opposed to the results he's getting. I think the Twins coaches and front office personnel can see with their eyes that he's been been the one of this team's best starters when it comes to the things he is actually in control of. I think they realize that players like Blackburn, Perkins and Hernandez, who put on a high volume of base-runners, are going to have a worse outlook than guys like Slowey who keep the bases clear.
Not going to disagree with you Nick that it would be ridiculous. I'm just guessing what this organization might do, this in no way is what I (personally) would do. As again my move would be to kick Hernandez to the curb as I agree that Slowey doesn't deserve a demotion of any sort.
Sure this team's given players more than enough chances to prove themselves this season, but they know the potential Liriano has on this team and knows that he can change the course of the season. I just think they'll find any way to get him up here and since Liriano is (again) dominating I just see this being the most likely of moves. Again, the most logical move would be to get rid of Hernandez and even though we might disagree on who the 2nd best pitcher on this team has been, I think that Slowey is the next that could go.
I guess we'll all have to agree to disagree. I understand exactly what you're saying though. I just see it a different way.
Twins starters, by xFIP:
Everyone knows FIP's are really the most important measure of success. Really, what are the Twins thinking? With FIP's like those, it ought to be clear they should just give up and start rebuilding for the future.
Walks, strikeouts and home runs certainly are factors in a pitcher's success. But they are by no means determinant.
While I think the Actual numbers the Twins Front Office takes into account as a determening agent to compare several of their own Starting pitchers are many tangibles that numbers can't really dictate.......
However, I agree that Slowey is actually the "one" if we had one who is on the bubble
Its hard to believe it, but its really true
theres no way Baker, Blackburn and Perkins are going anywhere any time soon. That leaves Hernandez and Slowey with the younger one in for a probable surprise.....
I still hope we Deal Livan though on July 30th.
Slowey really wasn't that bad tonight. Not great, but he really showed what he is made of. When he left, the Twins had no excuse for not coming back to win the thing. However, the gross bullpen, ummm, was gross.
I think that if Slowey is terrible next Monday against the Sox... I might reconsider my earlier position. But I think he should get at least one more chance.
Slowey pitched an alright game last night, he was neither great nor terrible. Perkins has a big task today of shutting down a very good Yankee lineup. Hopefully he can do what neither Blackburn or Slowey could do, which is get us a win.
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