Yet what could possibly elect a New Democrat in Saskatchewan this year? I ask sincerely, since it's a serious problem for the Liberals and Greens too, especially since it would help the country a great deal if we managed not to go 14 in favour of the Conservative Party. They took advantage of us on equalization because they knew the voters here would lean Conservative anyway. How can we reverse that thinking?
I'd think there are a couple of different questions to be dealt with there.
If the main issue is simply flipping a couple of seats out of Con hands, then I don't think that's far from happening already. The NDP can surely point to Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Regina-Qu'Appelle and Palliser as seats which are within reach based on the most recent election results; the Libs may have a shot in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre (since the NDP's candidate dropped out), and maybe an outside chance in Palliser as well.
That said, if the question is how another party can actually swing a large amount of the Cons' popular support (even to cut the percentage deficit by 10 points or so rather than wipe it out altogether), then the odds look a lot worse.
There may be some way for each party to do it: the NDP if it pushed a more populist, anti-Ottawa message; the Libs if they start treating David Orchard and his rural base as a pool of votes worth catering to rather than an embarrassment. But neither seems interested in doing so based on how that might appear elsewhere.
So even if the opposition parties can eke out a couple of marginal seat wins, I'd be shocked if the Cons drop below about 45% of the popular vote province-wide.
It turns out a well placed deal between Layton and May would have easily picked up Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar, and may have won May her seat in return.
Commenting by HaloScan
