I put article in reddit:
http://reddit.com/info/a037/comments
Great post, Mr. Brown. Keep up the great work here and on T.O.D.
Good posting. This AM we were having a fairly major debate over this issue and the interlinking with global warming. The ones that don't want "someone else to impose a choice upon them" are arguing that we'll adapt. They don't see that the Iron Triangle is telling them what to do and that they are doing it like Pavlov's dogs. Are they really responding out of "choice?"
Of course we will adapt. But the adaptation will hardly be a choice and if we let free markets decide the fates of us as individuals, then all we'll prove is that Darwin was right.
Yes, Let's raise the prices and really kill the people who can barely afford to drive now. That will solve all of our problems. Which tax are you going to cut to compensate?
Not to mention that raising gasoline taxes historically has little effect on the amount of gasoline consumed.
Why don't you do some research before making stupid suggestions. It's suggestions like this that makes _any_ dissention look bad.
Great post.
Some additional information:
Yet another voice says Peak Oil is here now
Ali Bakhtiari, a former senior adviser for the National Iranian Oil Company, says this year is when we hit the peak. And, just like Cantarell, the North Sea, and some other spots are showing not gradual but sharp declines, he expects that to be the worldwide situation in the not-too-distant future.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/
2006...nt_060713060628
Blogged at:
http://socraticgadfly.blogspot.c...eak-oil-
is.html
Happy Yergin day!
Good post.
there are some in the peak oil movement who think that it's in their and everyone's interest to get the word out. many of these activists have little or no personal wealth. what will happen to them when the word does get out, as it is only beginning to do now, is that people will become alarmed about where they live, with the few exceptions of those who already live in the places where everyone else will suddenly want to live. then, the ability to live in those places will be decided for the most part by who has how much wealth.
this post does a good job of identifying the systematic and deliberate skewing of public perceptions against the peak oil idea, which until recently actually affected the crude oil market. the famous chart of rolling long-dated crude oil prices posted at the oil drum, in which the five-year-out crude price was always about $20 but then turned up and is now in the $70s, shows us how recently and dramatically peak oil awareness came to the oil market.
for some humble activists, making money off of peak oil is anathema. but given that wealth will be a critical deciding factor in the upcoming survival sweepstakes, some will use this special knowledge, in particular with regard to the disinformation campaign, to enhance their survival prospects. although crude looks like it's unstoppable, and indeed it probably is, i would be at least a bit apprehensive about it, since peak oil is now old news in the crude oil futures market.
on the other hand, and i would say inexplicably, it is not old news in the natural gas futures market. there are still nat-gas contracts for delivery in 2011 selling for less than $7. how can that be right? kurt wulff (www.mcdep.com) expects $30 nat gas by 2010, and he's a somewhat cautious subscriber to the peak energy worldview. and i imagine julian darley would have plenty to say about $7 gas in 2011.
the cheapest 2011 nat gas contracts are, of course, in the off-season months for gas, but it seems to me that if north american nat-gas production goes off a cliff in the next few years, the seasonality of prices might decrease, since supply will decline while storage infrastructure remains unchanged, allowing producers to withhold relatively more gas during the off-season thus reducing the seasonality of price.
here is an investment scenario:
deposit $20,000 in a futures brokerage account. buy one 2011 contract for $7. this would give you a cushion of more than a dollar before you would receive a margin call. in other words, the market would have to anticipate something like $5.80 gas in 2011 before you would have to put up more cash.
using kurt wulff's price forecast, this contract will have a profit of $230,000 in about four years. and well before then, you would be able to withdraw your initial capital (and then some if you prefer).
i think that long-dated, off-season natural gas futures are mispriced and represent one of the best risk-reward profiles of any possible investment today.
Just watched the 2016 National Geographic special, scary stuff. If the U.S. represents 2% of world population and 25% of oil consumption, we have the opportunity to innovate and be the leaders in conservation and sustainability. Your pen (or keyboard) is a valuable tool in this effort. Are you able to find work as an independent consultant? given your industry critical voice? -RG
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