Khebab, Jeffrey,
Something that would help a lot of us picture the effect of domestic usage on exports from exporting countries would be a graph showing this increase over time. I think ideally you would want to show the production curve to present, with a line below that to show exports, and perhaps a line below that to show the loss to EROEI cost of extracting the oil (as the farther we get into unconventional oil, the more energy per output barrel we have to expend to get it). Then going forwards from the present, one could use several scenarios, for example a 2005 production peak, a 2010 peak and a 2025 peak.
My guess would be that after the lower EROEI of an increasing percentage of unconventional oil, plus the increased at-home usage percent by producing countries, was taken into effect, that the net difference when adjusted for the various peaks would be a lot smaller than most people would have imagined- that is, that oil exports decline faster and drop to zero sooner than is widely expected, even on a late peak.
Commenting by HaloScan
