Be nice!
I've done a complete breakdown on this survey here.
The Time's statement that “most Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein” is misleading, as they are basing this claim on a question which asks people whether they prefer the previous political system or the current one, and not one which specifically asks whether they believe life is better.
The Shi'a *should* prefer the current political system. They control it. That doesn't mean that they all think their lives are better, however.
There are also many things the poll finds that the Times aren't reporting on:
Amongst other things, the poll says:
- 26% of those surveyed nationwide said they’d had a family member or relative killed within the past three years. These numbers are even higher outside of Kurdish territory, where only 5% report losing a family member.
- Less than 1/3rd of Iraqis believe that the recent U.S. surge was intended to increase security in Iraq. More Iraqis believe the actual goal is to depose the existing government, establish U.S. control of Iraq, attack Iraq’s neighbors, or to kill and destroy Iraqis.
- 53% of Iraqis believe that the security situation will improve in Iraq once Coalition forces withdraw, as compared to only 32% who disagree. The percentage of Iraqis who think a Coalition withdrawl would be beneficial increases very significantly if you disregard the Kurdish region of Iraq, where only 15% of the population think that security would improve without Coalition forces.
- Only 15% of Kurds approve of the current governmental system. Most want an independent government. Shi’a, however, overwhelmingly support a strong, central government that imposes its will over the rest of the country. This could lead to significant conflicts in the future.
Among those with a clear preference, the Sunni in Iraq prefered the political system under Saddam by a nearly 2-1 margin. Over 26% of Iraq's Shi’a believe that the current political system in Iraq is just as bad or worse than the political system under Saddam.
- Approximately 60% of respondents considered themselves unemployed. Those percentages are even higher if you disregard the Kurdish region, where only about 50% were unemployed. These unemployment figures are approximately the same as was seen in the months following the invasion — they have not improved noticeably in years.
Lastly, although the survey polled residents in "every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq", the choice of places within those governates for their clusters seems skewed. Indeed, it appears that the data gathered in Anbar province, for example, was gathered in the far west of Iraq near Ar Rutbah, with no data from cities such as Fallujah, Ramadi, or Samarra. Much of the Sunni triangle is simply overlooked, even in situations such as Fallujah where there is a strong U.S. pacification presence allowing f
The glass is always half-empty, Mark...h'ain't it?
Well...if'n it's one o' dem der republicans what's responsible for keepin' you folks' thirstiness satisfahd...ah reckon!
One thing's fer-sher, though.
It didn't take long for the "patriotic" American press to release their own poll...did it?
Mind you...Al-Sadr's not hiding...he's waiting.
Until the "brilliant" "generals" in the house and senate are finally victorious over our troops, the troops' mission, and America's continued existance as a land of liberty.
He'd like to wait until we leave...since he thinks the soulless democrats will succeed in getting a firm date set for withdrawal.
But...
Setting aside half-ampty/half full debates, I am struck by some of the things that Iraqis believe that are at variance with apparent facts. They think we plan to depose alMaliki. Why? Why would we do that? If he is our stooge, we keep him. If he is not, we oppose him. Many of them also express a belief that there would be less violence in Iraq if we left. This sounds like war-weariness to me. It is understandable, but is such a belief based in any more tangible reality? Most of the victims of the violence are Iraqi, not American. Would the various terror groups suddenly have more love for Iraqis if we were gone? If so, why? I see people who have lived all their lives under a violent dictatorship, not accustomed to covenant citizenship, nor mututal responsibilityy, who accept as a given that governments always lie, and always rob. To say that America has the same sort of government is to demonstrate a serious deficiency in quantitative thinking skills. It is a reasonable desire to want to take from this poll some reassurance that the good things we are trying to do in Iraq may succeed. To desire to take from this poll the message that we are failing is more difficult to understand. I can grasp the idea of wanting a quick end to our troubles, but who really believes that withdrawal from Iraq would bring that? This country's retreats of the past thirty two years have brought neither peace nor love. One more retreat and we shall have our hearts' desire? This seems pretty thin, to me.
I'd like to add that I do not think that Iraqis are ignorant, nor do they appear unwilling to engage in building a civil society, with covenan citizens, as evidenced by all those purple fingers, at seriious risk to life and family. The poll responses tell me that they are somewhat naive, as who among us has not been, on one topic or another, if s/he has lived long enough?
Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 03/20/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.
KM, you'll probably want to read this.
I disagree. It's not that bad news sells, it's that bad news is cheaper. I blogged about it here.
KTCat - Thanks for the link. Yes, in this case the "good news" survey probably did cost more to execute than did the "bad news" one because it had a larger sample size and used the same methodology. There's no intrinsic reason why that had to be so however (i.e., the good news coming from the larger sample and vice versa).
There remains, in this case, the issue of parochialism (we paid for this survey and so we're darned well going to feature it and nothing else) and the basic problem of bias. One perceives more easily what one is prepared to perceive and the effort of writing (and reading) the same story over and over again is much less than that for writing (or reading and assimilating) something fresh.
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