I think I want to see "Battle of the Andrews".
So you really are a Liberal, right?
NO REPUBLIC
Labor needs to win 16 seats, which means all of the following:
- fairly safte liberal seats will have to be won;
- marginal seats where we have in all states need to be held; and
- marginal seats with government members must be won.
Liberals ftw
I am very amused by those who just assume that by saying Little Johnny is still in the hunt that I must be a Liberal. I'm not.
I have respect for many Libs, for sure. Just as I respect many ALP people. I can honestly say I have no idea who I'll vote for in the House of Reps but I can tell you I'll be voting for Labor in the Senate in support of Bruvver Feeney against the Greens menace, as should all patriots.
As one of my mates always says, ASSUME makes an ASS of U and ME.
Personally I usually vote below the line in the Senate and for Labor in the House of Representatives.
I forgot to mention before too that in "96" Keating was preferred PM and Howard won in a landslide.
Here's how the Coalition still has a chance to win:
Labor has to win 16 seats
Labor has to win the seats it already holds
Plus an extra 16 seats
In Victoria Labor held Holt, Issacs and Chisholm are winnable for the Libs
The libs are winning in W.A
When people answer polls they answer you they would like to vote for, not who they will vote for
The polls will narrow until the election
The polls have a margin of error
In the lead up to the most recent elections, the polls favour labor, but the Coalition always wins
It doesn't matter who wins the popular vote
Kevin Rudd is new
John Howard will win the television debates against Rudd
It will be just like Menzies fifth in 61, where he won by one seat
I think the ALP will win by 15 seats - that means they will pick up 31 seats from the coalition. It will be a wipe-out. I look forward to reading all about it on your web-site Sophie. The only worry I have about my prediction is that Charles Richardson thinks the ALP is going to win in a landslide too.
31 seats!
I am not naming any seats as that would help the Liberals and I have spent considerable time on this analysis.
will you publish after the election then Mr/Mrs Prediction?
You're counting Bennelong as part of the 31, that's gotta be wishful thinking.
I don't dare go over to our friends at Poll Bludger and get into this but I can't imagine that the multi-million dollar All Howard All The Time Liberal ad spend in the Sydney market will be ignored in Bennelong where the man himself is running.
Liberal sources tell me fund-raising has been going very nicely, with everything basically set for a big effort in NSW. My friends on the other side report some financial pain after the supposedly free spending on the state election in NSW.
So I doubt I'll have to go ahead with the name change.
As much as I want to the Libs to pick up seat in Vic (and in every other state), I must disagree with "Laboor will win but". Holt, Issacs and Chisolm are not winnable at this election.
That said, LaTrobe, Deakin, McEwin, McMillan and Corangamite are not the certain victories that the ALP people in those electorates arrogantly assume. I expect that only one or two seats will change hands in Victoria.
Andrew, I trust that you will be voting below the line. The ALP traditioanlly preferences the Greens ahead of the Liberal Party, as part of the Greens-ALP Deal.
If your aim is to slay the green menace (a noble quest) then voting above the line for the ALP is not an option (unless you are aware of some Liberal-ALP Deal that you have yet to share with your readership).
The ALP thinks it can win LaTrobe with that union hack Greg? Jason Wood even has a carbon neural office! He will retain the seat.
Yes I neglected to mention Tasmania and please remember that there isa margin of error (2-3 seats) factored into these figures. It could have been as close as (1) seat let's not mention the Northern Territory.
Our chaps in Canberra need our wise assistance Vic, can the Dr Haneef case do without your talents for a few weeks whilst we save our once great Party?
Dr Hannef's human rights are very important. However a trip to Canberra may be in order. I need to explain to Phil Ruddock my case for being Callinan's replacement on the Hight Court.
Good point Victor, Ruddock is a sour old puss though.
I am happy to help you and promote your immense skills and abilities.
On another side benefit I remember going to Canberra when I was at Teachers College and there was young skirt everywhere, all those young public service girls looking for some excitement to offset their boring days looking out the dept window.
Indeed Fatty. The young skirt in Canberra is impressed by Liberal credentials but for only so long as we remain in power. Try handing out a business card with "Opposition" on it in the Holy Grail and see how quickly the attention of the young lasses dissipates.
Very funny. Have you ever considered the following:
(a) talking to women your own age; and
(b) that nobody goes to the Holy Grail anymore.
Yes indeed 8.16, I'll vote below the line to ensure the purity of my vote. Greens and other pagans will be last.
good job Andy
great photo of Howard. he's a tough bastard who might well yet wipe the floor with Pixi-Anne Rudd
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