Exactly. Like I've been saying, a McCain Presidency will probably result in big wins for the Democrats in 2010, adding to what will already probably be an increased majority in both houses. An Obama or Clinton Presidency, by contrast, might enable the Republicans to regain control of one or both houses of Congress in 2010. At the very least, they should cut into the Democrats majorities significantly.
That's because people focus all their anger at the President, fairly or unfairly. In most cases, the Presidents party loses seats in off-year elections.
There have been exceptions, but they are rare. Republicans won in 2002, while Democrats won in 1998, but I think you have to go back to the Roosevelt years to find the last time this occurred.
In 2002, Bush won because of 9/11. He was so popular, a lot of Democrats ran their campaigns with shots of them standing next to Bush. A fourth district Congressman from Kentucky tried this tactic, and still lost his bid for re-election.
In 1998, people were angry over what they perceived as the unfairness of the Republicans regarding the Lewinsky scandal and the impeachment debacle.
If McCain wins this year, people are going to have plenty of good reason to be pissed off at him and the Democrats in 2010, but McCain and his party will be the ones to catch the most hell.
You might have a situation where the best hope a Republican Congressman has of retaining his seat is by campaigning against the record of his own President and standard bearer.
People read too much into polls that point out the unpopularity of this or that Congress. People vote for or against their own Senators and House members. By and large, people tend to view their own Congressmen in a different light (generally more positive) than they view the Congress as a whole.
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