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There are number of reasons why 2006 is different than 2004; for one thing, Patricia Madrid is not Richard Romero. She has learned from his mistakes and has proved to be a much better candidate. Just look at Madrid opening South Valley office or actually answering Wilson's attack ads.
Also, Richardson's GOTV campaign will be much more effective in '06 than it was back in '04. He has much, much more money in his campaign warchest, and is basically concentrating on getting the Dems out to vote to pump his votes up past the 60 percent mark.
You say that Madrid is like John Kerry, but many counted Kerry as a weak candidate, while many view Madrid as a strong candidate.
And this all goes without mentioning the attitude towards President Bush; even with his post-9/11 bounce, he is still floundering in the sub-45 territory nationwide, New Mexico included.
you are in denial about the massive differences between '04 and '06.
in '04 a relatively popular bush was at the top of the republican ticket. in the end, bush lost this congressional district but *barely.* heather's ability to win 25% of democratic voters made the difference. on the other hand, if the presidential election were being held this year, bush would lose this district *decisively.* also, there is no winning republican at the top of the ticket while richardson will win with around 60% both here in Abq and statewide. furthermore, the national trend is strongly against republican congressional candidates- iraq,ambramoff,bush, now the foley cover-up. if you add up the differences in bush's poularity, the governor's coat tails, the anti-incument mood, the distinction is clear.
in summary, the bottom line question is not why madrid has the same numbers as romero did 2 years ago. rather, it is why heather is polling 11% among democrats instead of the 25% she polled last year? the answer is the three factors listed above. given the democrat voter registration edge in this dsitrict, heather cannot win without the support of more democrats and there is no fathomable reason why democrats would flock to her at this point.
Thanks for your comments Mario and welcome to New Mexico. I don't know if you are Republican because you argue your points intelligently, something I have not seen from Republican bloggers since before 2004. Whether Madrid ousts Wilson or not given history, the reason why she should is to get out of the mess in Iraq that George Bush has managed to get us involved in; to stop the already ghastly national debt George has brought upon us; to stop the death and mayhem both to our soldiers and the Iraqis that George has promoted. These are just a few solid reasons why Madrid should oust Wilson. Whether she does or not remains to be seen. I can only hope that Americans are tired of being foreign invaders and causing the deaths of thousands ... and for what?
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