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I find the Russians' speed of action somewhat less surprising and suspicious, in itself, than Peters does. When, after all, have the Russkis been slow in operational maneuver since, say, 1943? No serious occasion comes to mind. Slow into Czechoslovakia in 68? No, not once the political decision to move was made. Slow into Hungary in 56? Nah. Slow into Afghanistan in 79? Their move was faster than ours was, 24 years later and, arguably, even smoother. And Afghanistan really did catch them at least half unprepared.
Now were they preparing this for months? Almost certainly, to some extent. Did they tell their S. Ossetian compatriots (com-passport-holders, anyway) to provoke the Georgians? I would be really surprised if not. But the mere fact of the attack is not _proof_ of prior intent.
For an intel type, too, Peters betrays a certain innocence of the way the Soviets, now the Russians, did and do things. They use models, norms, and various other cookie cutter planning techniques, that tend to make their staff planning very quick, though rarely perfect. It would never take them weeks to line up the airlift sorties, or the airstrike sorties. I said, "innocence," but I'm certain he does know all this and is doing his bit to shade opinion of the succesor to a power he (and I, for that matter) grew up hating viscerally.
As for what we can do about it, not much.
When I first read Peters' article, I wondered what your take on it would be concerning the allegation of prior intent.
The only instance of relatively slow, deliberate Russian action that comes to mind is their invasion of Manchuria in August 1945, which (as promised at Yalta) began three months after Germany's surrender. And given the greatly weakened state of the Kwantung Army, it was no surprise that the Manchurian invasion took less than one month to complete.
But regarding Georgia, it seems that Bush is trying to make a strong statement by declaring his intent to start an airlift and sending Condi Rice to Georgia via France. Interesting times...
Great post and reply from Mr Katman.
I agree with Peters that this invasion by Russia is not a "response", but a plan looking for an excuse.
I read Mr Katman's bio homepage, and thought I would acknowledge his impressive background. I am a native of the New River Valley in southwest Virginia (Pilot), and feel comforted that we have such great citizens as him and his family in Blacksburg. I, too, am an Army infantry paratrooper veteran (86-90 honorably, recalled back in for Desert Storm). I got levied to Korea after a couple of years in the 82nd at Bragg, and after that tour, tried to get back to my old outfit (1/325 under McNeil, US Supreme commander NATO forces in Europe the last time I checked), but, alas, I was told they were only accepting jump school graduates. They at least kept me in 18th Airborne Corp, and stationed me at the 101st (2/187) for my last year. Best experience of my life.
I live the cubicle life, now, as an IT technician for a cancer doctor's group. I read one of your recent posts, Mr LaRoche, about the distaste in living the life of a "cubbie", and I can tell you: you're right. Keep up the great work, here. And it was a pleasure to make your acquaintences, the both of you.
John Galt
Thanks, John. I'm glad to see that I'm slowly gathering a great group of commenters and readers here. Hopefully I'll be able to keep everyone interested by posting entries on a more regular basis. Teaching can be rather draining at times.
I finished up the summer session last week and then headed out of town for a bit. Anyway, I should have a new post up for tomorrow.
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