I've always been a bit confused about the upcoming elections. From what I know, a Prez can serve a maximum of two terms, each one being five years. If Chavez was elected in 1998, how are there elections scheduled for 2006, and if (ok, when) Chavez wins, does he get his full 5 years until 2011? I'm assuming the recal referendum somehow messed up the regularly scheduled election dates, right?
Oh and by the way, awesome blog.
The terms are 6 year terms. What happened is that Chavez was first elected under the 1961 constitution which allowed for a five year term. But that constitution was re-placed by a new one that was written by an assembly and voted in. Then all office holders had to stand again for election under the new constution. Chavez did that, in 2000, and won a six year term as president which will go until the end of 2006 when the next presidential elections are. The first almost two years between when he was elected under the 1961 constitution and then later under the new constitution aren't counted against his terms.
If he wins in 2006 and serves out that entire term (ie isn't recalled) he will have served a total of 14 years. But any new president going foward under the current constitution would only serve a maximum of 12 years.
Hope that helps.
I have been saying this since the begining, had the opposition done this 'triangulation' thing then Chavez might not even be in power today or at least barely (it is hard to say though), the problem is that they thought they were doing 'it' but everybody knew it was lip service, destroying an economy will never win you brownie points.
The only thing that can defeat Chavez is Chavez now, what the oposition needs to do is to think longterm, after Chavez if he does step down in 2012, try to start from zero and this time be genuine, you are center-left, not left. most if not all Latin America is rejecting the right and the 'third way' what makes them think it will be accepted here?
It will be hard though, the first thing they need is to jettison the old guard and the true capitalists, you don't need them, their presence will just remind the people of a time when empty populism always won elections.
"The only thing that can defeat Chavez is Chavez now"
So, so true. This is definetly Chavez's game to lose. And he could lose it. Its not likely, but he is making enough mistakes to leave the door at least a little open for the opposition. But fortunately for him even if he screws up he can still win as long as the opposition screws up even more - which is of course quite possible.
It is definitely true that a portion of Chavez's success has to be attributed to the ineptness of the opposition. Had he faced a more capable opposition he might have already been driven out. But fourty years of a political monopoly made the old political class (the current opposition) fat, lazy, and incompentant. They simply never faced anyone even as remotely determined and adroit as Chavez in all those years so they were left with no idea what to do when he appeared. Worse still, for them, is that after 6 years of more or less constant confrontation they don't seem to be getting any better. But of course, its hard to get better when you still can't acknowledge your mistakes.
"try to start from zero "
Thats isn't possible. The nature of life is you only get to start from zero once - after that you just keep accumulating baggage that either you can deal with or you can't. Obviously, the opposition can't. Look, they can't even come out and apoligize to the country for the "strike". So they'll never get past it because 75% of the country will never let them get past it.
"true capitalists" I assume you meant crony capitalists? True capitalists are almost unheard of in Venezuela
It's hard to take this blog seriously with it's selective view of the opposition. Do yourself a favor and post my website link on your main page and I will do the same. Then you will be one step closer to credibility.
Sincerely,
Carlos I. Alberto
Editor in chief
Venezuelatoday.net
"Thats isn't possible. The nature of life is you only get to start from zero once - after that you just keep accumulating baggage that either you can deal with or you can't. Obviously, the opposition can't. Look, they can't even come out and apoligize to the country for the "strike". So they'll never get past it because 75% of the country will never let them get past it."
I am not saying they will I am saying they should, I understand that the old guard will not go away under any circumstance, but if they did attempt to do so they might have a chance for 2012 or the inevitable RR in 2009-2010.
They should have literally dumped the leadership on the street, but instead fell for their 'fraud' cries, they have to remain in power at all costs.
As for Chavez he is not that safe either, if he can maintain economic growth at current levels until 2006 (likely) then he will win easily, the question is beyond 2006, will high oil prices slow down the global economy considerably? will regional trade offset it? can we finally 'sembrar el petroleo'? If he does maintain this type of growth for a long while, like China has done, then he will have converted me to the red side of the force 
"It's hard to take this blog seriously with it's selective view of the opposition. Do yourself a favor and post my website link on your main page and I will do the same. Then you will be one step closer to credibility."
Man what is it with you guys and credibility? does ad hominem ring a bell?
It is obvious that the site is Pro-Chavez/anti-oposition. But at least you are free to comment if you disagree, the other anti-Chavez blogs have banned or deleted my messages, and I do try not to even chose sides.
One of the things I am sure of is that the oposition needs to shift to the left.
Flanker, the problem is that asking the opposition to shift to the political left is like asking a duck to be an eagle--it just ain't go'nna happen. It just ain't.
They live and breath class priviledge. More, there is a strong psychic racial element to their power. Further, they have been molded in the comprador mindset for generations:--they super idealize the empire (USA) and they are totally discredited because everyone can see that they don't object to the invasion of Iraq, or any of a host of policies that work to immiserate the vast majority of the world's population.
The most they can hope for is a US sponsored coup or invasion senerio.
Sad but true. Give these bastards the opprotunity and they would participate in the murder of millions of Venezuelans (if need be) to further their position.
Look no further than many of the comments by the rabid opposition--asking these priviledged people to change their political views is useless.
Six months after the RR and they are still convinced that Chavez 'stole' the referendum. Pathetic little lackies for empire
Actually, I'm not sure what Flanker meant by them shifting to the left. If he meant truly shifting to the left in their beliefs then I agree with Jim R. But if Flanker meant just shift to the left in the oppertunistic sense, to win an election and then revert to their true nature after the election, then I would agree with him. At the end of the day the opposition isn't ideological. They are just a bunch of oppertunists out to make money off of the state - ie crony capitalists. So they can pretend to be anything they want to get into power. Remember CAP ran as a quasi populist.
CIA
I think Flanker handled the credibility issue. As long as the opposition people who come by think I'm not credible I know my blog is ok. I only have to be concerned if they start thinking it is credible. 
Anyways, I have seen your site before. My criteria for who to link to is determined by a site having relevance to the topics at hand AND having original material not easily found somewhere else. Your site actually does have that in that you have a pretty comprehensive list of Venezuelan media sources that I have never seen anywhere else. So it was an oversight on my part that I didn't link to VenezuelaToday before. I'm due for an update to the links section so I'll include your site in the next couple of days - definitely by the weekend. Not, of course, that I expect it to do anything for Oil Wars crediblity.
One thing though. When you put in my link in your blog section please make sure Oil Wars is classified appropriately. I noticed you gave the OAS a red beret. If that is the case, then I insist Oil Wars be given TWO red berets.
Thank you.
OW--and if Jesus were alive today he would be given at least a dozen red berets---I mean halos. LOL
With Jesus, Bolivar, Chavez, and Che on our side--we cannot, and will not, loose.
CIA you can take that to the bank--or, the country club. Your call.
"They live and breath class priviledge. More, there is a strong psychic racial element to their power. Further, they have been molded in the comprador mindset for generations:--they super idealize the empire (USA) and they are totally discredited because everyone can see that they don't object to the invasion of Iraq, or any of a host of policies that work to immiserate the vast majority of the world's population."
I disagree, while true that a good portion of the remaining oposition may be what you describe they certainly aren't monolithic, remember that 40% voted against Chavez (30% now) there aren't that many wealthy people in Venezuela.
Besides I know of some lefties that do opose the goverment, mostly for non-economical reasons. The whole point is that it is them that hold the keys to victory, not the rabid elite that stand to benefit the most from a US run puppet.
Again I am not saying they will, I am just saying they should.
"But if Flanker meant just shift to the left in the oppertunistic sense, to win an election and then revert to their true nature after the election, then I would agree with him. At the end of the day the opposition isn't ideological. They are just a bunch of oppertunists out to make money off of the state - ie crony capitalists. So they can pretend to be anything they want to get into power. Remember CAP ran as a quasi populist."
To tell you the truth that is the absolute worst thing that can happen if they win, might as well start a civil war now, besides Lucio Gutierrez already proved what a folly that is.
Flanker--indeed I generalized widely and, perhaps, wildly.
However, I do recognize a class-based reaction to the idea that those on the bottom begin to mobilize and demand equal representation and authentic democracy.
Many people are deeply programed by the class and race hierarchies that have become 'naturalized' by dint of a relatively stable status quo.
Here in the US we have the phenomena of working class people voting against their own economic interests.
The middle classes in 'capitalist' socieites generally cast their collective lot with the ruling class--by endorsing policies that perpetuate poverty and ensure unequal distribution of opprotunity and wealth creation.
But yes, not all of the people that oppose Chavez are 'for' a US invasion. However, they have allowed themselves to be crassly manipulated by these comprador vendepatria oligarchs. For example, on April 11th, when the leaders altered the path of the march and directed members of their own movement into sniper's bullets.
In my opinion, the leaders were aware that a pretextual slaughter of marchers would take place.
After six years, for the middle classes to continue to align themselves with the vendepatrias is rather interesting--there are deeper psychic currents at play (which I interpret as coming to the fore because of unarticulated, but cogent, ideas having to do with social class heirarchies and racialized, color-coded identity construction/maintenance.)
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