I guess it is finally oficial, while I do want so see justice it is far more interesting to see the dynamics of power on this issue.

If it were for any other republican, one could assume that they would turn over Posada without hesitation, but the Bush administration is somewhat different.

First they remember what happened when the White House crossed the rabid cuban-exile community with Elian, it is not unreasonable to assume that it cost Gore the WH despite having 500,000 more votes.

One could assume that a little boy would be different than an old terrorist, but they are not really emotionally detached to be reasoned with. If Castro ever said that food was good for you they probably would starve to death.

Secondly Jeb Bush's political aspirations are important, we saw a quick WH reaction during the Shaivo mess, only to back down when unfavorable polls surfaced, however it is a scientific fact that the exile community is more fanatic than the pro-life religious fundamentalist movement.

Third, Posada could air dirty laundry if 'betrayed', although that would probably win you a promotion in this administration (eg Bolton, Negroponte, Reich, Noriega, etc.)

Fourth, this is personal with Bush, even realpolitik is morally sound when compared with emotional judgements from simple people guiding foreign policy.

Fidel Castro:

The benefits of getting Posada even by proxy is greater than the political windfall of him staying in Miami.

Posada is active, and fellow anti-castro extremists may feel boldened by having an inpenetrable sanctuary from where to operate.

Chavez:

He stands most to gain from him staying in Miami, he could literally ride this thing forever with the media. Plus it might take some legal maneuvers for him to recieve proper punishment

The downsides are less violent than for Castro, but nevertheless important, it might set a precedent considering that there are oposition members being sought for extradition in the Spanish/Colombian embassy bombings, but he might also want to score the coup de grace on a string of remarkable foreign policy victories over the US.
Flanker | Homepage | 06.16.05 - 12:38 pm | #

Flanker,

Good comments. I'll go over it later.

In the mean time check out this article by Greg Wilpert no Venezuela Analysis.

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/....php? artno=1478

I think you in particular will find it very interesting.
ow | Homepage | 06.16.05 - 1:38 pm | #