How fast will the reserves grow back?
Over the past year they have grown considerably and I might put the number over 5 Billion, the price of oil is not comming down anytime soon, so the question is will we keep saving until we own the bank? put a cap and invest the surplus? or take money out put a cap and invest + 5 billion more?
Intreaging minds want to know
Flanker, the reserves will keep growing but the rate depends on many things. But that is not the key question. I think the more important question is what is the level of reserves that the government considers appropriate. If they choose $22 billion then they will just take anything in excess of that, regardless of how rapidly the reserves grow. If the reserves grow to only $25 billion then they just get $3 billion - if they grow to $30 billion then they get $8 billion.
The irony of this is they are just getting money that they really should get to begin with but don't because of their own fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate is fixed at a level with the Bolivar artificially high against the dollar. So when the government sells its dollars it gets from oil revenue it actually doesn't get as many Bolivars as it should if the exchange rate were more realistic.
That is one of the huge ironies here is that the opposition bitches about the exchange controls but the primary victims of the exchange controls is the government itself because it is the main seller of dollars to the Central Bank and loses out on those transactions. The private sector importers get dollars at a subsidized rate so the opposition actually has it good!!
Actually, it cracks me up every time someone in the opposition brings up inflation. What was it when they ran things, I think 50 and even 100%.
It just kills them that for all their predictions of doom and gloom Chavez is doing a better job than they did.
Yeah, it is sad that these opposition-types can't see that it is their pro-imperialist, profligate, discredited anti-human policies that have led Venezuela into a sea of collective immiseration, where a majority of the population live in poverty.
The 'private sector' has no concern about housing, health, and/or education.
Now they bitch about inflation and would keep these funds secuestered by the Central Bank (to save for the day that the government is overthrown, I am guesssing).
It is good to shame these people to the point to where they will voluntarily leave for Miami, with their other oligarch, imperial-loving bretheren.
Any country that cannot control the wealthy elite class is doomed to mass misery.
In the Bolivarian Republic the people are rising up to say "Por Dios, we will not obey--no how, no way'
Let Uncle Sammie and his miserable minions put that in their pipe and try to smoke it.
"It is good to shame these people to the point to where they will voluntarily leave for Miami, with their other oligarch, imperial-loving bretheren."
Now, now we really don't want the opposition to mix with the cuban exile comunity 8-), no really that would be a lot of people I know and would miss 
Flanker, let them go there - its a swamp. Where better to keep all the reptiles than in a swamp with other reptiles.
Of course, my thoughts above are half hyperbole.
There is always room for a 'loyal' opposition--but the opposition that tries to get a criminal imperial power to invade the country to install a tyranny (like Afgan. & Iraq) is simply slimy and traitorous.
There are probably at least 20% of Venezuelans that fall into the catagory of vendepatrias. They are already joined at the hip with the fascistic, white Miami Cuban exilos.
" Flanker, let them go there - its a swamp. Where better to keep all the reptiles than in a swamp with other reptiles."
May be a swamp but I sure as hell would not want to repeat what happened to Cuba (in more ways than one) I want some to stay but if they must go then let them go to another country or a solid red or blue state, Cubans in Florida have inordinate amount of power, and an incredible amount of irrational hatred.
"There is always room for a 'loyal' opposition--but the opposition that tries to get a criminal imperial power to invade the country to install a tyranny (like Afgan. & Iraq) is simply slimy and traitorous."
Yeah I know the type... but again let them go where they can cause the least amount of trouble.
"There are probably at least 20% of Venezuelans that fall into the catagory of vendepatrias. They are already joined at the hip with the fascistic, white Miami Cuban exilos."
I would say half that. 30-40% would be the oposition, 20% is the harcore contingent, and 10% would openly advocate that.
Good points Flanker--indeed, it is important to remember that there do exist 'honest' ideological differences that can be mitigated with open discourse and compromise over time.
However, a vile ten percent of the population would rather Uncle Sammie made their (impossible) task much, much easier. These people know no patriotism--they are just servants of the guy with the biggest stick, the most dominant global mafia.
At the core, they really despise the majority of Venezuelans; their lives are just about obtaining all the trappings of power. True parasites--not a bit of 'symbiosis' in their relationships.
Flanker, Jim:
Indeed the problem isn't opposition to Chavez per se that is the problem (I, like most, oppose him on some things) nor even most of the current Venezuelan opposition that is the problem. It is the radical opposition that is the problem. It is that group that has led the coups, strikes and every other effort to destabilize the country. And I think Jim is right in saying that this is the old elite which had lots of privalages and lots to lose with Chavez's reforms. There are certainly plenty of decent people who oppose Chavez but they don't have much of a say on anything. I don't think they have any more say within the opposition than they do within Chavismo - and that says a lot. And of course, Chavez has always made it clear he is willing to work with a rational opposition and since last A15 there have been signs there are more sane opposition types willing to work with him.
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