LA ¿ALTÍSIMA? POPULARIDAD DE CHÁVEZ
A partir del momento en que Carlos Andrés Pérez gana las elecciones del 88, su popularidad asciende al mismo 80% que hoy nuestro actual Presidente esgrime como prueba inefable del mandato del pueblo soberano. A pesar de lo cual, ocurre aquel “Caracazo” que entre otras muchas cosas, nos habló muy claramente acerca de la volubilidad de las masas. El agrado que CAP despertaba entre los venezolanos bajó en ese momento a 46% y no volvió a recuperarse más.
Para Rafael Caldera el nivel de popularidad en el momento de asumir la presidencia asciende a 70%. En un panorama donde además de otras cosas, se desata la crisis bancaria, la popularidad de Caldera descendió vertiginosamente, alcanzando su peor momento durante la puesta en marcha de la Agenda Venezuela.
El presidente Chávez gana las elecciones presidenciales en 1998 con 56% de los votos, una cifra no particularmente abrumadora y, en proporción, similar a la obtenida por Lusinchi y CAP2. Igual que ocurrió con los mandatarios anteriores, como presidente electo le agrada incluso a la gente que no votó por él. De esta manera, casi inmediatamente después de las elecciones, la popularidad de Chávez asciende a 80%, pero a diferencia del resto, esta altísima cifra, aunque ha bajado, no se ha desplomado –por ahora-.
See it for yourself here:
http://www.consultores21.com/
dom...4256AE6004D721E
With Graphs for those who like visuals whilst they suffer.
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This is one of the most interesting findings of the poll for me. I have always noted that most older Venezuelans who can remember many of the previous governments overwhelmingly say the Chavez government is clearly the best – ie, much less corrupt, does more for average people, more democratic, etc. In fact there was one poll I saw a couple of years ago that broke down Chavez’s level of support by age and interestingly enough he had higher levels of support amongst older people than younger people. But this result, in which people say not only that the Chavez government is good but that it is in effect better than any government they can remember, is a tremendous endorsement of Chavez’s achievements."
Well to be fair all other goverments sucked donkey nuts. I have yet to make up my mind about this goverment and would wait until he is done to do so, but I can no honestly say who was a 'good' leader in all our history, there are candidates and none of them were democratic:
Peres Jimenez
Gomez
Antonio Guzman Blanco.
"So Chavez has the support of 2 and 1/2 times as many people as the opposition. This shows both how much support Chavez has and how much the opposition, through it actions, has turned people against it. It also explains why the old opposition slogan, “elections now”, has fallen into disuse."
The oposition is so horrible and so incompetent that they could have done nothing in 7 years and still polled twice as high.
Flanker, to a certain extent I agree - obviously most of the preceeding governments have been bad. But some of them had huge advantages such as much higher levels of oil revenues then Chavez - CAP I comes to mind. And it does say something that Chavez is viewed more favorably than even the golden age of CAP I.
"The oposition is so horrible and so incompetent that they could have done nothing in 7 years and still polled twice as high."
This is very, very true in my opinion. The opposition has really done itself in with its constant "the sky is fallying" BS. If they would just shut up for a while they would probably go up in the polls. But shutting up isn't something they are capable of doing.
Pulpo:
I liked the graphs but remember they are from 2001. It would be VERY interesting to see what the continuation of the Chavez graph looks like. But I doubt Consultores 21 will make it public.
Caracas graffiti, early 2005:
CHAVEZ: ERES TSUNAMI ERDA.
Guillo:
Do you think that the Venezuelan comedians signed against Chavez and must now resort to graffiti as the medium of choice?
"Flanker, to a certain extent I agree - obviously most of the preceeding governments have been bad. But some of them had huge advantages such as much higher levels of oil revenues then Chavez - CAP I comes to mind. And it does say something that Chavez is viewed more favorably than even the golden age of CAP I."
CAP I is retroactively viewed unfavorably by the people because of CAP II.
But I am talking academically, not poll wise, CAP I was our crossroad, and 'sembrar el petroleo' the right strategy but the execution was so flawed that it led us to misery and poverty while success would have led us to developed status. I could never forgive him for that even without looking at the disaster that was CAP II.
PS the graffiti was funny.
"CAP I is retroactively viewed unfavorably by the people because of CAP II. "
Thats a valid point that I didn't think of. It would be interesting to know if they asked about CAP I distinclty from CAP II.
BTW, not all that CAP did was wrong or a failure. They did try to build up import subsitution industries which at the time was thought by many to be the way to go. It was wrong but that isn't CAPs fault or the fault of all those who worked for him.
And the steel and aliminum industries are about the only non-oil exports Venezuela has.
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