Ah, the lovely irony of it all. A white, upper class gringo is going to teach me about my own country.
As I said, you're basically a privileged white leftist practicing revolutionary tourism.
"is going to teach me about my own country." Sorry dude. Your even more lost than I thought. This blog is about Venezuela, not the U.S. So, to be taught about your own country you'll have to go to some other blog (DailyKos, AmLeft, SKB, Pacific Views are ones I can recommend)
Your confusion problably explains why you couldn't get the first half of the sentence right.
Actually, maybe your not confused. Maybe your dazed after looking at the Sejiaa numbers 
That would make sense.
Sorry, ow, no amount of revolutionary tourism will be able to mask your obvious white lefty approach to a country you barely understand.
Tired white boy, you can't get enough of the exotic Third World.
The tragedy is that you're actually proud of your Orientalist views. To such a degree that you have no understanding of US Latino culture, let alone Venezuelan culture.
"Every one of them kept intact the separateness of the Orient, its eccentricity, its backwardness, its silent indifference, its feminine penetrability, its supine malleability; this is why every writer on the Orient, from Renan to Marx (ideologically speaking), or from the most rigorous scholars (Lane and Sacy) to the most powerful imaginations (Flaubert and Nerval), saw the Orient as a locale requiring Western attention, reconstruction, even redemption. The Orient existed as a place isolated from the mainstream of European progress in the sciences, arts and commerce. Thus whatever good or bad values were imputed to the Orient appeared to be functions of some highly specialized Western interest in the Orient."
(Edward Said, Orientalism, Vintage, p. 206)
Its amazing all you can do is harp on this kind of BS - especially considering you make a career out of being a wanna be Venezuelan.
Well, actually maybe its not so amazing considering you seem to not have anything to say about Venezuela itself - or Iraq for that matter.
"to a country you barely understand."
Again, wrong blog. I'm not the one whose been calling it so wrong for so long. Maybe you should start to wonder about what you and your friends understand.
OW--I will let you in on a few secrets.
A while back, when massa let me change-out a wood floor in his big house, I found myself in the liberary.
Read about this cat named Frued. Anyway, from what I read about Frued, it seems like GP is suffering from 'displacement'.
Indeed, GP has never been to Venezuela, and he doesn't even have family there--yet he claims that his ideological opponents are those with no connection and no knoweldge about Venezuela.
Indeed, check out his argument-style. To wit: there is no argument, no 'there there' as G. Stein famously quipped about a certain US locale way back in the day.
All GP can do is engage in various smears of sorts. This is standard for the rightwing in every country.
This little switch-a-roo is designed to have us take our eyes off the ball, off the arguements.
More, GP lives in the belly of the state-terrorist beast, yet he seems to have no problem with his own country's invasion and occupation of other people's land.
My guess is that GP drives a big fat SUV--and he figures that he needs the cheap gas. Tens of thousands of Iraqi kids dead don't phase this cat.
Supporters of real terror always call others the 'terrorists'. Yeap, this is wack, but it seems to follow this idea of 'displacement'.
Gotta go, don't want massa to catch me on his computer--I'd surely get a whupp'in.
(More, I just stole young miss's copy of "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"--ain't gonna get much wurk done today. Harry Potter is definately a Chavista!)
Another thought for GP to mull over: Edward Said was definately a supporter of Chavez and the Bolviarian project.
Edward was good friends with Noam Chomsky, definately a Chavista.
Forgot to say it: you know what time it is GP. It's a time when the minions of imperial terror are exposed as total hypocrites.
We are living in the time of a slave revolt. Dig it--live it--revolt!
Actually, I'm not interested in GPs background or where he has been or not. It would just be interesting if he used the comment section for its intended purpose - discussing current events in Venezuela or Iraq. He just seems to want to discuss about me or others here. I don't know about everyone else but I'm much to boring to be the subject of a conversation.
BTW, that displacement theory sounds interesting.
OW:
You must have struck a nerve:
" Ah, the lovely irony of it all. A white, upper class gringo is going to teach me about my own country."
Poll figures will have that affect on some when the numbers shown do not fit their liking.
You know, frustrations set in, it grows inside with every positive article on the Gov. and then the release...
Hey Guillo Where were you last Friday?
Anyway - Chamo que pasa? Y que dices de los que no son gringos? Muy bravas las palabras de uno que ni vive en Venezuela y ni es 100% Venezolano. Pero esta bien, Ellos como tu saben que ser Venezolano es cosa del corazon, de hecho no tienes ningun derecho de estar hablando de los gringos cuando tu te encuentras en las mismas. No te agites pana, sabes que es verdad.
I have come to know that speaking a certain "P" word in certain circles is a akin to anathema.
Amazing the animosity that is carried over time. I suppose not many people like having thier face rubbed in Sh!t, symoblically speaking of course, and perhaps that may be the cause of the grudge. That foul taste of Crow lingers quite a while on the palate im told. If I could offer some scotch to ease the embarrassment I would.
GP it is not good form to be always using argumentum ad hominem, in intellectual debate it is not the people/messanger that counts it is the idea.
I would like to see the questions asked in that poll, while I do believe his approval is 70%, 80% mihgt be too much, perhaps the question itself was worded differently. 59% strong support if true is very bad news for the oposition
Los muertos firman contra Chávez
...
31 de mayo del 2004
Un promedio de 578 firmas de difuntos fueron reparadas en el estado Aragua, según denunció el director de registro civil de la Alcaldía de Girardot, Víctor Magallanes, quien ofició al Consejo Nacional Electoral en la región la desincorporación del Registro Electoral Permanente con la correspondiente anulación de las rúbricas.
Explicó que según la data de la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas, la lista de difuntos, cuyos nombres, apellidos, números de cédula de identidad aparecen en las listas de solicitantes del referendo revocatorio presidencial, aún se encuentran registrados en la data del Poder Electoral, por lo que se solicita al máximo ente comicial actualizar la data del registro electoral.
Magallanes puntualizó que la incorporación de firmas de difuntos,representa un atropello a la voluntad del pueblo venezolano por parte de los sectores facinerosos de la "Coordinadora Golpista" que se encuentran desesperados ante los resultados desalentadores del proceso de reparos.
...
Old Habits die hard Huh JIM? - Only now with added sensationalism and spin - its the 05' chic didnt you know?
(source)
http://www.rebelion.org/
venezuel...40531firmas.htm
The lemmings will jump off the cliff every time Jim every godamned time!
Sure, as Steven Hunt says (in his best blackface voice) I've never been to Venezuela. It's all part of my hallucination.
As Pulpo says, I'm not 100% Venezuelan. I'll never be able to live up to his "authentic" Latino standards. I could never be as real of a Latino as he is...but I can dream.
As Flanker says, I'm in bad form. If only I could bring the type of civilized debate Yo El Supremo, Iris Varela and Nicolas Maduro bring to the table. Maybe you can teach me, Flanker.
I still can't figure out though why Chavistas feel so threatened by us in the opposition. If all of Venezuela supports Chavismo, and if the revolution is unstoppable, then why do you concern yourselves with even responding to us?
I find it funny how you guys all avoid the obvious: you love Fidel Castro. And you have no problem with the Cuban G2 being all over Venezuela. As though that weren't a violation of sovereignty.
Like I said previously, the logo yo sport on your upper right-hand corner is seen only on sites and companies financed by the Venezuelan government.
But at least now I know where to come whenever I want to learn about Venezuela and Iraq.
Here’s something interesting: Finance Minister Nelson Merentes says that oil revenue is 20% higher for the first half of 2005 than was expected:
http://buscador.eluniversal.com/
...rt_13201B.shtml. Good news!
However, the average Venezuelan oil price for the first half of 2005 was about $40.45, while the average price for the first half of 2004 was $30.01 – nearly 35% less! How does oil price go up 35%, but revenue go up only 20%?
But wait – that’s not all! Merentes isn’t comparing oil revenue to what was earned last year, but to what was budgeted. And what was the budget value for oil? If it was around $34, a 20% increase was pretty good, but it was…TWENTY-THREE DOLLARS!
http://www.mf.gov.ve/archivos/
14...Presupuesto.pps
How does an oil PRICE 76% over the budgeted amount result in oil INCOME only 20% above budget?
Here is a hint at one explanation - do you know the difference between royalties, dividends and taxes and when they get paid?
BTW, for people who want to check out Just Noticed getting caught in a multi billion dollar lie about oil numbers check out the last several posts on:
http://www.haloscan.com/comments...88487920/
#32310
From that it is clear J.N. lacks the integrity to carry on a serious discussion.
Heh Heh enquiring minds enquired too much I suppose. the truth hurts OW and you my friend are too damn cruel or are you?
Guillermo, the generalizations you make about us is rife with 'straw man' and ad hominem logical fallacies.
Attack our ideals, our ideology and our interpretation of historical and unfolding events. Your attack on us as people is not credible--you underestimate your own intellectual abilities to flesh-out and articulate the 'argumentative core' of our divergent ideologies.
Emotion is great--it comes from a passion about life, strife, paradoxes that we humans need to work through. However, logic must never be sold short, especially with politics.
OW: is GP's accusation true:==that the logo on the upper right handside of your home page, "Ahora Es Todos" signifies being sponsored by the Venezuelan government?
The accusation has been boldly made by GP. He is either lying, or he is privy to information that I am not (tell me how to cash in on some of that 'blog-money' of $500.00 per week just to sport the logo with interesting, timely information. LOL).
I am inclined to take you, OW, at your word--that you are doing this privately and have deep affinties and relationships with the Venezuelan people. Nothing that you have said or done has given me pause in the least.
GP--I ask you to present the source for your 'insider' information as to the nature of featuring this logo with respect to Venezuelan government sponsorship.
Let's see your attempt at using logical argument to present a compelling case for our consideration.
Let's see the evidence; otherwise you owe OW an apology in my opinion.
But you know what time it is.....
yeah, it's time for a slave revolt!
S.R.
Absolutely not. GP is just bsing. But I must admit I did cadge the logo from a government web site. I hope GP doesn't turn me in and get me sued or arrested!
"I still can't figure out though why Chavistas feel so threatened by us in the opposition. If all of Venezuela supports Chavismo, and if the revolution is unstoppable, then why do you concern yourselves with even responding to us?"
No one is threatend by the opposition. They are free to think and organize as they like. More power to them. But what this English language blog is going to try to combat is delliberate lies and disinformation peddled by some to potentially justify the overthrow of a democratic and legitimate government. Iraq has given a clear example of what lies and disinformation can lead to. I'm not going to sit here passively while some try to create a similiar scenario in Venezuela.
Pulpo, I'm not cruel. I'm a nice guy, really. Its those dastardly facts that are cruel
So, as a US or European Union citizen, ow delineates her purpose with this blog:
"[...] But what this English language blog is going to try to combat is delliberate lies and disinformation peddled by some to potentially justify the overthrow of a democratic and legitimate government. Iraq has given a clear example of what lies and disinformation can lead to. I'm not going to sit here passively while some try to create a similiar scenario in Venezuela."
ow | Homepage | 07.18.05 - 10:32 pm | #
Does this mean that you have become a Venezuelan citizen, ow? Or, are you working for the Venezuelan government? What would motivate a non-Venezuelan citizen to defend a country that is not her own? Perhaps the same logic that would motivate the Cuban G2 to have a say in Venezuelan foreign & domestic policy.
The logo on the upper right-hand corner is used only in official Venezuelan government web-sites, documents and promotion (such as the full page ads in The New Yorker and the Boston Globe and the quarter page advertisements in the NYT op-ed page).
So, I'm assuming this is a Venezuelan government sponsored blog.
Directions for use of logo (pdf):
http://www.mci.gob.ve/manual.pdf
GP:--you can't fathom why a non-Jew would have rallied against Hitler during WWII. Why non-Vietnamese would be against the Vietnam war? Why non-Iraqis would be interested and involved in opposing the US occupation and puppet government?
Parra, you are dense and a liar.
"The logo on the upper right-hand corner is used only in official Venezuelan government web-sites, documents and promotion (such as the full page ads in The New Yorker and the Boston Globe and the quarter page advertisements in the NYT op-ed page).
So, I'm assuming this is a Venezuelan government sponsored blog.
GP | Homepage | 07.19.05?
For the record, Parra, I have seen the logo on non-governmental, pro-Bolivarian sites.
Suggestion: Don't 'assume'--because when you 'assume' you make an 'ass' of 'u' and 'me' (dig it, 'ass-u-me').
You know what time it is Para, lest I remind you, you are in the midst of a slave revolt.
Now, about that apology you owe OW....
GP: As Pulpo says, I'm not 100% Venezuelan. I'll never be able to live up to his "authentic" Latino standards. I could never be as real of a Latino as he is...but I can dream.
You see OW I told you this one learned quickly - can we keep him.
Guillo Im not questioning your "latinoness". Ive already told you on several occasions that I respect you even for what you are. What you do not do is offer the same in reciprocity where for you no one other than a latino can feel latinoness. To that end, if you are correct then the gringos cannot have any you have 50% y yo soy el unico gallo latino aqui! Sorry to pull rank on you like that but you deserved it. I hope you realize that our arguments extend beyond domicile and melanin content, and by way so are yours. That is why I can accept that you feel the way you do even though you are 50% pollito.
GP: "I find it funny how you guys all avoid the obvious: you love Fidel Castro. And you have no problem with the Cuban G2 being all over Venezuela. As though that weren't a violation of sovereignty."
You throw out generalizations like you throw out the garbage. If we "love" fidel so much like you say we do we certainly wouldnt be championing the market successes of Venezuela the way we have been, or posting articles on micro loans for the development of small businesses. I think you dont know enough about these issues to blurt them out so nonchalantly as you do.
And can you do us a favor and show us where the G2 are operating in Venezuela? Can you cite specifically where they are? Just saying that operate in Ven does not make it so Guillo.
Mestizaje, Pulpo, mestizaje. You have some white in your geneaology as well. We all do in Latin America.
(The poet Roque Dalton is one of the more famous instancess, half American-half Salvadoran. Whose close friend, Oswaldo Barreto, writes for TalCual by the way.)
I have no problem acknowledging my white, Indian and black ancestry. I reject none of them and none of them make me any less or more Latino.
As for G2, well let's start with the security detail that surrounds Yo El Supremo. Let's also mention the Cuban military advisors who have offices in several Venezuelan army bases, including Fuerte Tiuna in Caracas.
I can tell you there were some G2 in the huge entourage accompanying Mari Pili Hernandez and Juan Barreto when they came to Boston to speak at MIT a few months ago.
I owe no apology for denouncing those who are helping to install a dictatorship in Venezuela today.
For Parra, US military advisors are no problem--even though the US government is a top world criminal in fleecing the world's impoverished people is a leading exponent of state terrorism to further its diabolical, one-sided, destructive geopolitical goals.
Parra, Venezuela is evolving with participatory democracy as its benchmark--your alarmist rhetoric works to disguise the real issue that is happening--and expansion of democracy. But that is the point, right Parra? The ad hominem attacks on people's character, the outright lies, etc--all of this is to keep people from thinking through the real issues involved in the development of the Bolivarian project.
You do owe OW an apology--for pulling this crap, any opposition website would have banned a flame-thrower such as yourself.
We are used to dealing with disinformation such as yours Parra--your fallacy-ridden discourse here functions as an indictment of the rabid rightwing rhetoric we have all grown tired of, but used to.
But remember, and Uncle Sammie knows this well, the revolution is armed and we will not sit back and allow a Venezuelan Fallujah or what you and your boyz are doing in Haiti.
So sit in the armpit of the imperial superpower (in decline) and suffer.
You know what time it is Parra.
'
That's right--you live in the time of slave revolt.
Meanwhile, Steven Hunt, lives in the vary same "armpit" he deplores.
Ironic your use of the word "misinformation" since that is what this blog has been set up to do, to offer a manicured version for North American and European consumption of what is occurring in Venezuela.
It's the same type of marketing strategy that led the Venezuelan government to donate $1.5 million dollars to the City of Boston last spring to help renovate their famous CITGO sign in Kenmore Square. That same week when the repairs to the sign were unveiled, the Venezuelan government paid for a full-page, full-color ad in the Boston Globe.
That's a saavy and expensive method of spreading propaganda.
"Directions for use of logo (pdf):
http://www.mci.gob.ve/manual.pdf\"
Wow, they even have manuals for this stuff? I guess I didn't get that memo. But given that I don't work for the Venezuelan government, don't get any money from them, don't have any affiliation with them (other than maybe shared ideas and politics) and that probably no government officials even know of this blogs existence would explain why I didn't get the memo.
BTW, why the fixation on the G2. Are they throwing a monkey wrench in someones desire to assasinate Chavez?
GP:
"I have no problem acknowledging my white, Indian and black ancestry. I reject none of them and none of them make me any less or more Latino."
Good I have no problem with you acknowledging them either - the problem is when you throw out the anti-gringo line against certain posters. See the problem Guillo.
"You have some white in your geneaology as well."
What do you know - I could be black as midnight for all you know.
"I can tell you there were some G2 in the huge entourage accompanying Mari Pili Hernandez and Juan Barreto when they came to Boston to speak at MIT a few months ago. "
How do you know they were G2 did you ask them? I repeat, just saying they are does not make it so.
"I owe no apology for denouncing those who are helping to install a dictatorship in Venezuela today."
Theres that plague talking again. You sound like the guy who just got sent to jail for life for bombing the abortion clinics.
Schools out for summer huh?
So, you don't get paid by the Venezuelan government. You'e still propagating a false picture of what' occurring in Venezuela, following the Chavista strategy to the T of misinformation and marketing abroad.
My fixation with the G2 is related to the fact that they represent the longest running dictatorship in the Americas. The presence of Cuban military and intelligence forces in all levels of the Venezuelan government is a clear violation of the nation's sovereignty.
Pulpo,
You can try to deviate from the topic at hand by labelling me a right-wing fanatic. Go ahead, call me right-wing, if that'll make this all easier for you.
I can't afford to take summers off. I simply have decided to challenge your lies and illusions here. Feel free to ban me anytime.
"You'e still propagating a false picture of what' occurring in Venezuela"
I like to think I'm correting the false picture of Venezuela painted by the opposition propoganda machine including some other web sites. But you disagree. Fine. You are perfectly free to argue/discuss the specifics of any of this in the comments section.
"Feel free to ban me anytime"
Won't happen. Remember I'm a Chavista. Which means I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech.
So, I hope you have a few years to spend on this "revolution." Because I can guatrantee you this whole situation will continue to be tumultuous for a long time to come.
You can delude yourself into thinking things are improving in Venezuela. As Lebowski (The Dude) said: "That's, like, your opinion, man."
But, make sure you have some stress-relievers (whatever works best for you) because you'll be experiencing what we Venezuelans (Chavista and opposition) have been feeling for the last 5 years: stress. Just look at Yo El Supremo. He suffers from acute cases of paranoia and insomnia from time to time.
Guillo:
I never considered you right winger - but if you feel you are then more power to you. You should get your one way ticket to Miami soon, you're out of place in the North East.
Copying and pasting a logo to show support for any one cause or another does not constitute sanctioned government support. Im assuming you realize how easy it is to do that. For instance Im sure OW could in theory go to the NRA website, copy thier logo and post it on the blog - that doesnt mean that the NRA is a proud sponser of Oilwars.
Next week OW has promised us an interview with Charlton Heston you should stop by.
I belong to no single place, neither Miami nor Boston nor Caracas. There are plenty of progressive people in Miami, by the way. And Boston has its share of right-wingers.
Like many Latinos, I've led a nomadic life and will always be from somewhere else.
Whether petro-dollars flow into this blog or not, its use of the logo on the upper right-hand corner is a clear identification with the fascist project being imposed by Chavismo on Venezuela.
"Whether petro-dollars flow into this blog or not, its use of the logo on the upper right-hand corner is a clear identification with the fascist project being imposed by Chavismo on Venezuela."
Guillo whats it gonna be buddy - it is or it isnt funded by the Gov. Of course the logo is an identification. Where you see the Swastika we see Doves. And those who see the swastikas are in a minority both in visitors to this site, and in the actual population. So if you thought you were in the minority before - here you have another box to check. But look at the bright side buddy - as far as minorities go, you'll never be african american or a woman (err maybe - such things can happen these days) or an african american woman.
Yet more semantics and avoidances, Pulpo.
Enjoy your illusion of a peaceful, happy Venezuela, where everyone simply adores the state of the nation.
You really have no idea how much stress and strangeness you're getting into by wanting to participate in Venezuela's political situation, even though you have no direct ties to the country.
Like I've said to ow, I hope you're preapred for years of this, because the situation has only just begun to get complicated.
Do you understand that dissent is an action that is usually done by minorities.
I would have no issues with being a black woman, Pulpo. Thank God for Toni Morrison, Elizabeth Alexander, Jean Grae, Angela Davis, etc.
But lets talk about being Indian.
GP your fixation on race is amazing. How does that go down on opposition sites? - you know the ones that maintain there isn't any racism in Venezuela at all.
Wow, ow, you really think you know everything, don’t you? What’s most astounding to me is not the things you don’t know (especially about economics), but the things you really think you know. Would you give chess advice to Garry Kasparov? Physics tutoring to Stephen Hawking? Cooking lessons to Emeril Lagasse? The BCV isn’t in their league, but they are the authority, and yet you still deign to question their results, and impugn the credibility of some who use their numbers, while using their numbers yourself freely and without question.
http://oilwars.blogspot.com/2005...nomic-
news.html
“do you know the difference between royalties, dividends and taxes and when they get paid?”
And the ones of those that are not counted as “Ingresos Petroleros” are…? See http://www.asambleanacional.gov....-
sancionada.pdf, page 29. The same general terms Merentes uses, since they’re talking about the same thing.
The timing issue is interesting, and worth looking into, since there is indeed a lag. However, if some of this year’s payments are late, then some of last year’s payments were collected this year. Let’s say that every single payment is 12 months late. Then the difference in revenues (if oil production is the same) would be the difference in oil price – 35%. Normal delay is 30-60 days, and a 60-day delay would account for a 6% (2/12 of 35%) drop. Got any theories for the other 50%?
As for your figures that you linked to question my integrity, check out the MF’s budget presentation. They estimate oil production (counting the Orinoco) at 3.4 million bpd, price of $23.
3.4 million bbl/day X $23/bbl X 365 days = $28.5 billion
If we take out 400 kbpd for domestic use, we get $25.2 billion.
Yet the MF’s value for oil exports (FOB) is $32.2 billion!
That’s $7 billion, or 28%, over what you would calculate. Makes the BCV numbers, which you dismiss for being $5.4 billion and 20% over your calculations, look pretty conservative. If there’s a lie, the MF is in on it. And bigger than the BCV.
So, what is it you know that both the MF and the BCV don’t?
No, there’s something they know that you don’t, and you can’t seem to recognize the possibility. I admit I don’t know what it is for sure (that’s why they’re the authorities, not me), but I’ve got some ideas, and I’m even willing to share.
Since it’s the FOB value, it includes any and all value added. This should include the increased value for refined products, transportation and whatever other expenses it takes to get the oil from the ground onto the ship.
“From that it is clear J.N. lacks the integrity to carry on a serious discussion”
You think you’re smarter than the BCV, yet say I lack integrity?
“When confronted with your numbers having been bogus you lack the basic integrity to admit your errors”
Eat your words, or live up to them.
ow,
As a white woman you really haven't had to think about race very much at all. It's a topic you have the luxury of not having to consider if you so choose. Besides, it is your comrades in Chavismo who always come back to the most essentialist notionas of race, class and gender.
I brought up race after Pulpo's crude remark about black women. Of course there's racism in Venezuela. Although I can tell you from experience it's not as bad as the racism in the USA.
"I brought up race after Pulpo's crude remark about black women. "
Oh you silly thing you. The crude remark is your own by not using the proper PC terminology. Besides it was an example of how you are not "the" minority in all cases. No disparage would be taken by someone not trying to twist the meaning of my words.
"You go your way and I'll go mine..."
(Bob Dylan)
I still don't get the fascination with the bleeeping messenger, I could easily assume that all oposition sites are backed by Sumate/Cisneros/Department of state, but you know what IT DOES NOT MATTER you debate the message not the ideas, if your reply to everything is "oh yeah he is just a political tourist" Then you have a very weak ground to stand on.
I know that this is not only evident in anti-chavismo but still far more prevalent. Still the same poeple that whine about it happily embrace the opinion of their own "right wing tourists" who have no flipping idea where Venezuela is on a map but thinkg like a cave man.
Chavez left
Me right
Me hate Chavez...
Ignoring the very criollo nature of our slavation/damnation (depending of your point of view).
IF somebody is dedicated enough to at least pay attention, then they do deserve some respect at the very least.
BTW if he were paid by the goverment he would have at least a personally hosted site, not a flipping web-log on blogspot.
J.N. I see your migrating whats left of the discussion up here. Trying to run away from the numbers?
There is no dispute as to what the BCV numbers are. They are the dollar value of total exports. So as I said before if you want to start with them as the basis for a reconciliation of the dollars given the BCV that’s fine. I already stated that:
“But lets go back to question of possibly including the Orinoco numbers in the caculation. If Guerra wants to do that he can. But then he would have to subract out all of the dollars from those sales that go to the foriegn partners. For one the profits which alone would be potentially billions of dollars. Then any operating costs paid in dollars overseas (probably most all equipment and salaries). Yet, I don?t see where Guerra has ever accounted for any of those numbers in his calculations. “
And as I also clearly stated you have to subtract out the dollars that don’t come into the country. Guerra did part of that subtracting out the following (assuming even these numbers are correct):
2.39 billion for operating agreement payments
2.30 billion for debt payments
1.373 billion for imports
1.8 billion for Fondes
.600 billion for the rotating fund.
Fine, but where are the profits of the Strategic Associations that don’t come back, or their dollar expenses? Just as you subtract the debt payments for example because those are dollars pertaining to exports that don’t re-enter the country you have to subtract the Strategic Association dollars that don’t enter the country. Where are they sub-tracted? These would certainly be billions. Were they simply forgotten about? Or maybe they got in the way of your propaganda attempts so you decided it was best just to forget about them.
In any event, not accounting for them makes Guerra's calculations wrong. You can move around to different threads as much as you want but your bogus calculations are still there.
"I still don't get the fascination with the bleeeping messenger"
I think you have it basically correct. Its just much less work than discussing the actual issues.
A waste of time, but it is sort of entertaining I guess 
I wonder why the oil thread moved up here? I hope I didn't scare him away in the other thread. Anyways OW I don't think you need to explain your point on the Strategic Association any further. I read the other thread and you've explained it very clearly. That someone is ignoring it, or pretending not to understand it, has nothing to do lack of clearity. There are other reasons which I think are very apparent at this point (unless a miracle happens and you get an answer this time ).
ow,
You're such a mediocre tactician. Why bother responding to me if I'm being irrational? Why not erase the posts? C'mon, you can do it, girl, let that inner fascist come out of you, just like your hero Fidel has done for 4 decades.
So, I wonder, what is it about us Venezuelans that you love so much? Is it our critical thinking skills (so ably represented by Flanker's Ni-Ni pleas for "Can't we all just get along?")
Is it the gangsterism embodied by thugs such as Yo El Supremo and Danilo Anderson? Or is it just the petro-dollars?
Sandy, you were very polite on the other post, so why be rude over here? No, you won't scare me away. I'm never afraid of information, whether I like it or not. JN might bore me to death, though. I do hope you answer the questions I posed, either here or there. Just seeking information.
“J.N. I see your migrating whats left of the discussion up here”
You brought it into this thread, remember?
“check out the last several posts on:”
“There is no dispute as to what the BCV numbers are”
So you say, but before you said:
“Note that is not the $32.5 billion your friend Guerra claims. How could he have come up with that number?”
“Of course, he tries to be clever with his lie and say he got the number from the BCV balance of payments. Nice try but no cigar”
Yeah, no dispute NOW. It only took 6 days to get past that tiny point, which was entirely your misunderstanding. As you say, fascination with the messenger is "just much less work than discussing the actual issues." Now we see the reason it's so much work to discuss these issues with you.
You know what’s really funny about this? You’re proving Guerra right.
You cite PDVSA: “No, the articles cover the numbers from January through April in their entirety. And they clearly show all funds are accounted for”
Without ever explaining what happens with Orinoco oil funds, which seems to be your sticking point with Guerra.
You calculate: “Do that calculation and and I bet you don't come up with the 9.652 billion dollars he uses - not even close. So you see he is lying”
Your calculation can’t explain the BCV’s number, which proves Guerra is lying?
You guess: “But that can probably be explained”
You accuse: “Both you and Guerra are assuming 100% of those monies enter Venezuela go to the BCV”
See, Guerra’s conclusion is not that the money doesn’t enter Venezuela, that it’s being stolen, that it’s hidden in some offshore account, or that it masks underproduction of oil. No, his point is simply that these funds are not explained, that they are never actually accounted for.
And every argument you make underscores that, because you have to guess, and do the calculations to estimate information that should be public, and gloss over facts that are missing when they come from institutions you like, while criticizing the same lack from economists you don’t.
PDVSA is a black box, and you have helped show it. Your arguments against Guerra rest upon that fact.
JN
"I'm never afraid of information"
Thats good. But then I'm not sure why the very valid point of Guerra incorrectly leaving out billions of dollars of money out of his calculations seems to not be of interest to you.
"JN might bore me to death, though"
"I do hope you answer the questions I posed, either here or there. Just seeking information."
Actually, I was hoping that you would answer the question posed to you some time ago. Where in his reconciliation of 2004 oil revenues and dollars received by the BCV does Guerra take account of SA revenue that doesn't enter Venezuela? No one seems to be able to find it. And without that Guerras numbers fall apart and it looks like everything is accounted for, as OW pointed out.
"See, Guerra’s conclusion is not that the money doesn’t enter Venezuela, that it’s being stolen, that it’s hidden in some offshore account, or that it masks underproduction of oil. No, his point is simply that these funds are not explained, that they are never actually accounted for."
But of course, Guerra can only imply that there are funds not accounted for because he has a hole in his numbers so big that you can drive a Mack truck through it. We don't need to guess at what the SA numbers were down to the dollar to know that Guerra was either committing a major blunder or a major lie by not including them. In the thread you challenged someone to show Guerra's numbers wrong and OW sure did do that - in a major way. Thats why you are starting to look like a cat on a hot tin roof avoiding a certain question.
Sandy,
I think you are too optomistic. I've been through this with JN before and it always seems to wind up this way - he changes the subject or walks away without answering point blank qustions.
The irony here is he is the one who wanted to discuss the PDVSA numbers as he was afraid to touch a Racadi Cadivi comparison (for obvious reasons). And now that he gets caught with obviously BS numbers on this topic we get the same old dodge ball routine.
Sandy: "Where in his reconciliation of 2004 oil revenues and dollars received by the BCV does Guerra take account of SA revenue that doesn't enter Venezuela?"
The real question is, where does PDVSA reconcile that information? Whose job it is anyway - Guerra's? Not hardly! It's PDVSA's - and only PDVSA's - and Guerra points out that it isn't done, and the owners of the company (remember who they are?) have to settle for words instead of numbers.
Sandy: "Guerra can only imply that there are funds not accounted for because he has a hole in his numbers so big that you can drive a Mack truck through it"
A huge hole left there by PDVSA.
Sandy: "We don't need to guess at what the SA numbers were down to the dollar"
But you have to guess what they are in neighborhood figures, because PDVSA hasn't done it.
Sandy: “Thats why you are starting to look like a cat on a hot tin roof avoiding a certain question"
Just like PDVSA is avoiding publicizing figures to back up their claims. Are you noticing a theme?
Let’s say it’s your money, that you own a business, and you accountant says that the profits are tied up due to “complex contractual mechanisms.” Are you going to be satisfied with that explanation, and walk away? Hell, no! The guy will be lucky if you don’t fire him on the spot! It’s the Venezuelan people’s money, and they deserve more than a promise that it’s all working out.
ow: "it always seems to wind up this way - he changes the subject or walks away without answering point blank qustions"
Never saw you answer this one:
"How does an oil PRICE 76% over the budgeted amount result in oil INCOME only 20% above budget?"
Pretty point-blank, and you walk away, while changing the subject into a personal attack on me. Which is how it always winds up – you accusing me of what you are actually doing, while pretending to care about Venezuela. (With terrible spelling.) What a hypocrite.
I really don't care who is President of the country, but I hope that it is governed well. Losing 56% (or even 32%, 56/176, still an enormous amount) of expected oil income isn't exactly doing that, and it's the people who suffer, not your dear boy Hugo. Some concern.
“he was afraid to touch a Racadi Cadivi comparison”
Not afraid, just uninterested, because Recadi should never have existed, and was created by an administration that I don’t and never did support. I do notice you’re afraid to touch Lucas, whose extradition was refused by a government you DO support.
http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/
20...1119997461.html
That’s a fine example of a double standard. Predictable, and pathetic.
Well J.N. you were full of crap, got busted being full of crap, and aren’t adult enough to admit it. Why am I not surprised?
Remember this:
“OW, I'm calling your bluff. There's a guy named Jose Guerra who has been claiming that the amount of money PDVSA claims to have made as a gross, less the amount of money they have spent/donated to various funds, does not equal the amount of money the Central Bank says they've received. He doesn't guess where the missing money is, but a gap means either the money is being diverted illegally (and quite possibly stolen) or the figure is inflated to mask falling oil production.”
As I have shown, it Guerra’s figures do not mean money is being “diverted illegally” or “the figure is inflated to mask falling oil production.” Guerra’s numbers mean simply a) he doesn’t know how to properly reconcile the BCV numbers to PDVSA numbers because he left out the billions that would never enter the country from SA profits and expenses or b) he does know that but he was intentionally leaving out the numbers simply to make some anti-Chavez propaganda.
“Using the wealth of information available to you from this "most transparent" of governments, prove him wrong.”
Well that certainly wasn’t all that difficult. BTW, there are even more egregious errors that I haven’t harped on. For example, in the 2005 numbers did you notice that Guerra counts (again and incorrectly) the FULL amount of all S.A. revenues in the monies that the BCV should have received? But then he goes and counts PDVSA’s profits from its ownership share of the S.A. revenues separately. So not only does he count a lot of revenue that shouldn’t be counted, some of the revenue that is legitimate to count he counts TWICE!! As Galloway would say, there are some schoolboy howlers here.
“Either that or admit that this government is led by liars, who may also be thieves. Or that you haven't the intellectual honesty to face up to information - from authentic sources - you don't like, but can't disprove.”
Now that I’ve shown you how Guerra’s numbers are egregiously wrong because he has left billions of dollars out of his deductions in the reconciliation and you refuse to even try to answer why he did that (and you do know why) we can clearly see who here is lacking intellectual honesty. Confronted with evidence you “can’t disprove” you again try to change the subject – FROM A SUBJECT YOU BROUGHT UP.
The pathetic retort of “The real question is, where does PDVSA reconcile that information? Whose job it is anyway - Guerra's? Not hardly! It's PDVSA's - and only PDVSA's” isn’t going to cut it. It was Guerra’s reconciliation. Plus he somehow got all the numbers he would have to get from PDVSA (rotating fund, debt, social fund, etc.) yet the numbers he doesn’t need to get from PDVSA at all, the S.A. numbers, you claim he doesn’t know due to PDVSA?!?!? PDVSA wouldn’t come up with those numbers, the companies that run the S.A. do
So your pathetic excuse here again reveals your (and Guerra?s) lack of understanding of even the most basic facts of the oil industry.
Anyways, this makes it abundantly clear, if there was any doubt, that you are here to troll and not to carry on a serious discussion. You other questions could be dispatched just as easily. But seeing as you cannot even address where the S.A. numbers are in Guerra?s calculations, for obvious reasons, what is the point? If at some point you have a change of heart and wish to address this question this please feel free to do so. If you try it you might find you like being an adult.
OW,
I guess there isn't anything left for moe to address - you took care of it. Its amazing what a moron he is - he claims Guerra couldn't have gotten the SA numbers ?!?!?!? I guess he couldn't find Exxon or Chevron's numbers in the phone book
The guy is just a troll. Its obvious from his non answer. But given how much time you spent on this clown maybe you should make a post on all this. Those newspaper articles are excellent examples of opposition lies. That they published such obviously bogus numbers really says a lot about where they are coming from.
Wonder where he is now? Maybe he's reading the PDVSA 2003 financial statements trying to learn about the Venezuelan oil industry
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