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took you a while 
Flanker |
04.24.06 - 8:28 pm | #
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Not everywhere in the world gets as much vacation time as Venezuelan's do which can be used to write posts (or go to the beach) 
The good thing is regardless of whether I write it in February, March or April the points to be made remain the same.
BTW, I forgot to thank Pulpo who was kind enough to convert the PDF file so I could post the charts. Thanks Commandante P!
ow |
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04.24.06 - 8:46 pm | #
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La Venezuela Saudita vive. Only, mercifully, MINUS the Saudis...
Who'd of thunk that neocon-onomics could be such a resounding failure? 
BinaBecker |
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04.24.06 - 9:01 pm | #
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"La Venezuela Saudita vive"
Hope not. Saudi Arabia is not a rich country, but it could be. In fact, it seems like the economic policies there have not been neo-lib at all.....in fact rather statist and state controlled.....more so than in Venezuela in fact.
Just some food for thought.
Tor |
04.24.06 - 9:28 pm | #
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Great job OW, as usual. And thanks to P. too.
This class D situation has to be addressed in a substantive, structural fashion.
I am hoping that if Chavez gets re-elected there will be a massive public works program to get rid of the haphazard shanty homes and build something that will last and be safe. This will require huge amounts of labor.
The class D anomoly seems to fit here to the US contexts as well. There fucked, and it's bullshit. But at least in Venezuela there is some back-up with social programs and reduced costs for sundries through the Mercals.
Slave Revolt |
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04.24.06 - 9:29 pm | #
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"I am hoping that if Chavez gets re-elected"
If? If?!?!? Slave, its hard to see Chavez not winning for any reason short of a meteor obliterating the plante.
"La Venezuela Saudita vive"
Actually this is much better than the Venezuela Saudita. Back then it was the upper classes and part of the middle class that did well - getting their trips to Miami where they could famously buy two of everything given how cheap it was for them. Now it is those who have been on the outside looking in for decades who are getting the benefits. I've always thought of what is going on in Venezuela as a revolution of the dispossessed. This helps confirm that.
ow |
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04.24.06 - 10:25 pm | #
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Since it was mentioned above, Saudi is actually forecast to have an economic "golden age"
"Kingdom's banks look to golden era"
http://www.ameinfo.com/65347.html
Alyosha |
04.24.06 - 11:33 pm | #
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Alyosha,
I have read something to this effect too. Keep in mind that the Saudi's have opened more up recently (to investment) and are working to free their economy. They may have been inspired by (1) Dubai, (2) hordes of unemployed workers and (3) lackluster times when oil prices were low. (1)-(3) seems to motivate even the comfy royal family.
Tor |
04.24.06 - 11:52 pm | #
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Actually I have no problem excluding A and B from the missions (except obvious ones like Mission Identidad). These are designed to benefit the lower classes like food stamps and medicare in the US.
In fact, targeted aid at the unemployed or poor would probably distort the economy less than price controls and subsidized food (mercal) and gas.
The minimum wage deal is somewhat overdone though. Chavez keeps increasing it by decree whether it is realistic or not. A too high minimum wage keeps workers out of the formal sector. Sure, a just minimum wage should provide for a family of four, but what good is this if only a small portion of the country benefits (which is the case now)?
In fact, the labor market is super rigid in general. This is one reason why job creation especially in the private sector is disapointing.
Tor |
04.25.06 - 12:03 am | #
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Very interesting report - thank you.
The link in this sentence, however,
"The slide also breaks that statistic down by social class (for a definition of the social classes see here). "
takes one elsewhere, to Microsoft.com - a place that I try to avoid. LOL
The nice thing is, there is no reason why this rate of growth shouldn't countinue for a while. China has been growing at about 10%/year for decades.
Owl |
04.25.06 - 2:45 am | #
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"The nice thing is, there is no reason why this rate of growth shouldn't countinue for a while. China has been growing at about 10%/year for decades."
It is possible to grow like China. But Venezuela and China are growing very differently. Private/Foreign investment are high in China and this is driving growth in export industies. Venezuela has an oil boom in virtually its only export industry and is therefore growing through government spending and the ripple effects of this (on consumption and construction for example).
So it may seem that Chinas growth is more sustainable. Also China is and has been growing from a much smaller base...it is poorer.
China is also achieving something else that has always escaped Venezuela...diversification. Chavez's only attempt here seems to be at best a more efficient CVG 2.
Venezuela's growth seems in the future, as in the past, to depend mostly on the oil markets.
Tor |
04.25.06 - 5:31 am | #
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Owl:
The link is fixed - its actually the same as the first one anyways. I had two "https" at the beginning which somehow takes you to Microsoft! Hmmm.
BTW, I dind't sum them but the numbers show that social class E (more than have the population) has had its income go up a stunng 46% in two years. The social programs sure are accomplishing their intended goal. The poor are getting to be a LOT better off no matter what the BSers in the opposition say.
Tor, yup its still all on oil prices to keep this going. I really wish Chavez would change some of his other economic policies and leverage his oil supplies with countries like China to help get the industrialization ball rolling but so far he hasn't. The one hope though is that Chavez tends to focus on one thing at a time but he does that one thing very thoroughly. So if he does start to focus on industrialization it could be good.
ow |
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04.25.06 - 8:52 am | #
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Well only CVG 2 is selling the thing short it is also about investing in the old ventures and rescuing them from the CAP II Caldera II decay. Alcasa should have line VI finished within a year bumbping production by around 120,000 tons. Bauxiven (in the black by the way) is also recieveing french investment to increase production. Pequiven is being rescued too. As for new industries the VIT has potential to start building PC computer components with the help of China, perhaps make them 100% open and find a niche market for export. Also the defense industry is in its golden age with it likely to produce its weapons or provide maintenance to the rest of teh continent.
Construction is the bigger job creator though.
Flanker |
04.25.06 - 1:14 pm | #
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Off topic but interesting:
http://hotzone.yahoo.com/b/hotzo...wNibG9nLWVudA--
Kevin Site is reporting from Colombia. I seldom talk about that country (not much oil there) but it certainly is interesting. His report makes it pretty clear that the para-militaries were tied to the government and army and also involved in drug trafficing. Considering how many leftist politicians and labor leaders have been assasinated in that country it barely qualifies as a democracy. Sure they have elections - but can you really be viewed as a democracy when saying the wrong thing gets you killed?
Yet, the opposition and Condi Rice would have us believe Colombia is more of a "liberal" democracy than Venezuela is.
Also, interesting to note how the army soldiers and paras were just used. I'm sure some GIs from Iraq can relate to that.
ow |
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04.25.06 - 6:45 pm | #
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ok, file this one under too much time to kill. I was reading an article by someone on Vcrisis.com about how bad the electoral registry was. Supposedly they downloaded the registry data from the Venezuelan CNE website, sorted it, and discovered interesting things like there being tens of thousands of people over 100 years old registered to vote. They claimed that the CNE has been secretive with the data all along because of this sort of thing. The article is here:
http://www.vcrisis.com/index.php...rs/
200604251640
Yet when I clicked on the links where they claimed to show all the incriminating data they found it was PASSWORD PROTECTED. Ie, you can't look and verify for yourself what this person claims. Yeah, and then they bitch about the CNE!!!!
ow |
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04.25.06 - 7:02 pm | #
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OW, yeah, I re-read the statement with the 'if'--your right, my bad (better watch out: the rabid oppos might accuse Slave of smoking crack, with this 'if' )--it is much better, the 'when Chavez is re-elected'. Again, my bad.
Great comments about Colombia. It has been known all along the the oligarchy, the military, the government, and the paras are all connected. I agree completely, the way Tor's masters try to focus and attack Venezuela for being 'undemocratic' is ludicrous given the happenings in Colombia. It's a pretty frightening situation--all leftists can be accused of sympathizing with the FARC, the 'terrorists' (when, if I remember correctly, roughly two-thirds of what can be classifed as terrorism comes from the government/military and the paras.)
This has been the reality for years now--but, like Haiti, it is very rarely spoken about truthfully.
To date, the Chavez government has been adroit and mindful in their dealings with Colombia. At the least, Uribe has not let the US attack Venezuela military from Colombian territory.
The Colombian oligarchy hates Chavez with the same vehemence as does the US--and I do give creedence to idea that de-stablization from Colombia is more of a problem for Venezuela than vis-versa.
So, who knows, maybe the way the Chavez/Uribe dynamic plays-out is that Uribe has to keep the dogs at bay, he has been a force the restrains the most fascistic elements in the Colombian far-right/pro-US wing.
I wonder, though, if indeed there were elements in the Colombian government/military that were planning assasinations of Venezuelan leaders?
If this were in the works, I somehow doubt that Uribe was aware of it. But I could be wrong/
Slave Revolt |
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04.25.06 - 10:06 pm | #
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Actually, Uribe admitted a while back that Venezuelan military officers had plotted in Colombia with DAS agents against Chavez. So that is openly admitted. Also, according to the revelations a couple of weeks ago the DAS was involved in plots against Chavez's life (remember that article linked Patricia Poleo with the Jorge 40 that also appears in the Kevin Sites article - dime con quien andas y te dire....
ow |
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04.25.06 - 10:18 pm | #
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"Yet when I clicked on the links where they claimed to show all the incriminating data they found it was PASSWORD PROTECTED. Ie, you can't look and verify for yourself what this person claims. Yeah, and then they bitch about the CNE!!!!"
Sounds to me like good ol' right-wing nutball projection at work again. This isn't what the CNE is doing now, it's what the Vcrisis nutjobs would do if they ran the CNE. Not to mention the fact that they KNOW they're just making shit up...and they don't want YOU knowing it too. 
BinaBecker |
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04.27.06 - 12:28 am | #
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