All I can say is that he reflects sincerity and benevolent power.
He's got my vote.
It's all about the love, baby 
I "love" it! 
"All I can say is that he reflects sincerity "
Without a doubt. Love him or hate him I think most people acknowledge that is honest and straightfoward. He is definitely no "slick Willy" Clinton type. And people appreciate that after all the BS they've had from politicians over the years. Ultimately, that is why Rosales campaign of trying to mimick Chavez won't work.
Im sure Chavez will get more than 60%, but on the other hand i doubt that 70% will vote. 70% voted in the RR, but maybe Venezuela was more politizised and mobilized back then.
Btw, i did a frustrated comment on CC (when they were all hysterical and though that this add could make Rosales win the presidency) that i think was deleted. I repost it here because it is on the topic:
"Look, what we have is a pretty large group chavistas who will vote for Chaves. And then a little smaller group oppos that will vote for Rosales. Then we have another pretty large group, Ni-Ni's. You might think/hope that they are pretty fed up with Chavez, want to try something new and will go for Rosales. I tend to think most of them are pretty happy with their situation, are not prepared to take a chance with Rosales, and will go with Chavez.
But no single add, no single rally, no single promise/proposal with decide this election!!!
If Chavez was totally unknown to the public, those small details could have an impact. But he have been the president for 8 years!!"
My point is that this election is just another referendum on Chavez. And pretty much everyone have an opinion about him and what he have done for the country.
"Look, what we have is a pretty large group chavistas who will vote for Chaves."
Thing is that group seems to be 55% of the population. That is all Chavez needs and so the outcome is all but decided irrespective of what any "Ni-Nis" do.
The oppositions position is essentially an ideological one, not one based on reality. They start from the premise that the country is in bad shape and most people are disssatisfied. The reality of course is that the country is doing quite well and most people, between 60 and 70% depending on the polls, think things are going well for both the country and themselves. No one who is at all reality based thinks an incumbant president will lose under those circumstances. Just ain't gonna happen.
"My point is that this election is just another referendum on Chavez. "
Actually, I think it is more than that. The opposition is actually running a campaign and making claims as to what they would to. Those things, as I've pointed out, are quite revealing about the opposition. They are having to put their cards on the table and in the process are showing themselves to be quite unprinicpled power-mongers.
No one who is at all reality based thinks an incumbant president will lose under those circumstances. Just ain't gonna happen.
I know i know, and this is why i should stop read oppo-blogs. I get sooo frustrated when supposed intelligent and educated people forget all about reality when they get some emotional injection (rally, add, fake poll).
"and this is why i should stop read oppo-blogs."
Have you considered therapy? 
"I get sooo frustrated when supposed intelligent and educated people forget all about reality when they get some emotional injection (rally, add, fake poll)."
I have to admit, I have never seen a group of people who consistantly let their emotions get the better of them than the Venezuelan opposition. I don't which was my favorite moment - when after a lackluster campaign which left them mostly convinced they would lose the RR they let themselves get all worked up over a final rally and convinced they would win, only to lose; or the 2005 legislative elections when they like lemmings running off a cliff pulled out of the A.N. elections.
Thing is with the opposition is they are really good at figuring out what is the wrong thing to do, about six months after the fact.
Is just plain stupid to believe in Chavez's love for the people.
Since he was the new kid on the (political) block when he became president it is pretty obvious that he did not took opposition pretty well and he ignited (not started) the divisions so evident now in Venezuela (where some members of a family that are oppo might not speak to members that are red).
He might have started with lots of Love for the people.
Now his true love is power.
I see.
It is Chavez's fault that the opposition is filled with crazed, hate filled and violent people.
It would be great if everyone in Venezuela loved Chavez. But I'm sure he'll settle for 60%.
The percentage of people voting could still go up; some sort of news could come out, either good or bad. Bill Clinton said about his elections, never take anything for granted and work hard.
I get the impression that the Venezuelan party structures are not very strong, and that there isn't a real organized push to get out the vote.
Any guess as to what percent of the Opposition vote? What percent of Chavez supporters, like the people in El 23 de Enero?
Elliv -
With the "Ni-Ni's" potential vote - if one is really generous, one could split them half and half, but then Chavez would still win.
What is the reasoning for why they would go for Rosales?
The poll showing Chavez leading Rosales by 30% in my opinion underestimates Chavez vote. I doubt the pollsters who conducted this poll polled in poor working class areas as oposed to middle class areas. I find it hard to believe that in the middle of a super economic boom with unemployment falling fast and povety falling fast that Chavez is only polling 54%!!. I d'ont believe it. I believe Chavez is on around 60% to 70% easy!!
If you would see the poll as a "mini election" where those who donīt answer are seen as non-electors, Chavezīs 54% is not really 54% right now, its 54% out of 82%, that is 65,8%. I donīt know about the U.S, but thatīs how we use to see the opinion polls - like an "election today", not counting the "donīt knows".
But then again most people know what Chavez stands for, and I donīt expect him to grow in percentages from now on. Although I would say that 60% is an absolute low for Chavez, Iīm quite sure he will get more than that.
Getting people to vote is of course not only a matter of objective events, but a matter of how well the red-shirts are in their day-to-daywork in getting people to vote for Chavez. Itīs more than just a campaign with speeches and so on, itīs a fight of tens of thousands of activists.
its a cruzade in order to wash some brains properly
and about the campaing, i think it looks like Chavez is suffering from tourettīs simdrome. First theyīre all gona kill us for being the traitor "admirors of Bush", now he loves us. Give me love...or Iīll kill ya! imperialist pig!
He should stay with the red wich represents everything he stands for: comunism, Fidel Castro, imitating Fidel Castro, big loud notorious speeches for some atention, violence, blood, the devil, failure, resentment. He can stick his new copycat color up his ass.
by the way, WHO THE FUCK gives a crap about Chavez playing baseball in his childhood? the publicist who made this is absolutely certain that venezuelans are mentally retarded.
"If you would see the poll as a "mini election" where those who donīt answer are seen as non-electors, Chavezīs 54% is not really 54% right now, its 54% out of 82%, that is 65,8%. I donīt know about the U.S, but thatīs how we use to see the opinion polls - like an "election today", not counting the "donīt knows"."
Excellent point and you are absolutely right. I didn't think of that. It didn't say these numbers were from "likely" voters as they do with some polls so the numbers would likely go up.
i love the talk about love. when i visited caracas just before the last election, i could feel the love in the chavez supporters and in chavez himself. you all have it "goinin' on". of all politicians i know of, only chavez can honestly speak of love! i hope he continues with this approach. save revealing the truth about rosales's motives and history for the last days of the race (if needed). as for the opposition: those that i met were mean spirited and fact-less to say the least.
pedro
i'm sensing you have a lot of anger inside of you. you should seek some professional help. you could also talk to them about your fixation with fidel; it isn't healthy!
carlitos
Carlitos--you could say that Pedro has a 'hard-on' for Fidel. He has a 'thing' for aged revolutionaries dressed in green uniforms.
To you and me, Carlitos, this is weird--but to the types that align with the opposition, this appears to be perfectly normal.
Pedro, stay away from sharp objects and windows; put down the crack pipe. Help is on the way.
í have a fixation with Fidel? your idol has gone more than ten times this year to go see his boyfriend. He almost lives in Cuba. Now thats pathetic, expending our resources for pleasure and private trips, just to tell the old guy he couldnīt sleep thinking of him.
Of course, let us forget 8 years going on of nonstop threats of physical violence, of prosecution, and intimidation. Now he really loves ALL Venezuelans... yeah right...
The not so subtle inference is that he gets away with everything because he loves you. C'mon!
I would take this clip and put it side to side with the real Chavez. Then the tagline would be: Do you recognize this man? or Chavez vs. Chavez
Like I always say: You cannot blame Chavez for the failures of the opposition. I mean, how can you explain the fact that the current leader of the opposition is someone like Rosales? Couldnīt you pick someone better OR al least someone who wasnīt on the verge of being declared clinically retarded? CONCHALE VALE EL SEŅOR ES UN CERO A LA IZQUIERDA, por dios. Well, I guess I am exaggerating a bit. However, most people are not going to vote for a person perceived to be dumber than themselves. So, come December, a lot of people (and I mean A LOT) are going to vote for Chavez not because they like him but because they will perceive the alternative to be much worse. Rosales signed the Carmona decree and the best excuse he had for that was: "uhh..Well I thought that was an attendance sheet?" To be honest I would have had more respect for the guy if he had admitted from the beginning that he participated in the coup and that it was an obvious mistake and that he was sorry for it. People make mistakes all the time. Even Allan Garcia, aka Caballo Loco, who flunked the peruvian economy in his first presidency understands quite well the power of a mea culpa (When campaigning, AG promised to mend the mistakes heīd made in the past. Basicamente el tipo dijo: no lo vuelvo a hacer y la gente compro la idea).
Anyways, you might think I am repetittive with my statements but I find the fact that a presidential candidate does not know, a ciencia cierta, the true amount of oil being produced in Venezuela pretty disturbing. No whoīs fault is that? Chavez? pleeeez...
The fault for the 11th April coup lies in the lap of Chavez, as well as on that of Carmona and his close associates (that does not include Rosales, they were mostly military men and some businessmen).
The protests were ignited by the firing, in a totally undignified manner by Chavez, of some 5 managers of the oil industry, because they did not accept revolutionary management.
The widespread perception that Chavez had quit was produced by the Faithful Revolutionary General Lucas Rincon. He said so on a nationwide broadcast, along with the High Command of the Armed Forces.
Nobody, except a rabid chavista, would really consider faulting anyone for thinking that Chavez had quit and fled.
Nobody but a rabid antichavista would fault the Armed Forces generals, most political parties, and the CTV (the union headed by Carlos Ortega) for not supporting Carmona.
Sorry, but A mi no me cortas con ese cuchillo de carton.
You really believe all that crap, donīt you? And the paro is also Chavezīfault because he didnīt resign, right? Well, if that is the road you want to travel in...I wish you luck. But donīt come crying here when reality faces you on December 3rd. Yo, por mi parte, voy a hacerle caso a mi filósofo favorito y no le pienso pedir más peras al horno cuando de ustedes se trate.
The problem with your line of thinking is that you are trying to prove everything Chavez does is wrong. And when you, at first, label something like Barrio Adentro as completely useless/evil then your candidate comes out and promises not only to keep it but to make it better, you end up insulting the intellect of the very people you are trying to win over. But hey, keep it up if you think that is going ot help you win.
I have never said that I considered everything that Chavez does ill-advised... Specially from an inmediate political point of view. He is a master of inmediatism.
As for the 11th. April 2002, the facts are there and you cannot change them. As for those facts still unknown, I would like to know better than the Chavez fable or the pro-Carmona fable. For example, the role of the military in all of this. Particularly Rincon.
This is an interesting ad. More multifaceted than it seems.
Take the question earlier "who cares if he played baseball?" Oh, come on. It's essential for a political candidate to seem human. Those personal touches, handled well, are political gold.
A key decision in political campaigning is whether to take a largely personal approach (like, say, George Bush, who had few actual qualifications and so chose to sell his personality--which bizarrely to me is apparently the kind of personality many Americans can relate to) or to take a political approach, emphasizing policy or even ideological issues.
The "love" message quite cleverly integrates the two--it conveys that Chavez believes in his policies and ideology based on the same forces that form him as a person. At the same time, to his supporters it's clearly a quite radical message. Why?
I'm absolutely amazed that nobody has mentioned the obvious connection with Che Guevara, and his famous quote, "Let me say, with the risk of appearing ridiculous, that the true revolutionary is guided by strong feelings of love. It is impossible to think of an authentic
revolutionary without this quality..."
Clearly, Chavez is sending a message to the Venezuelan left underlining his connection with that revolutionary tradition--and the apparent incomprehension of the opposition just emphasizes that any populism they may manifest is skin deep. And of course, since the connection is not explicit, if Rosales were to start ranting over reds under the bed because Chavez is talking about love, he'd look foolish.
This ad is probably a sincere statement--but it is also a cunning message from a seasoned campaigner.
Well, for Chavez and Che Guevara:
Love, authentic LOVE is shown to your fellow human beings when you do NOT KILL THEM, DO NOT TORTURE THEM, DO NOT IMPRISON THEM or order them to be KILLED, TORTURED, IMPRISONED.
Particularly if you happen to believe that THIS LIFE, in THIS WORLD, is the ONLY one there is, the only shot at it that WE HUMANS get. More so then...
Worth responding to? Probably not. But . . .
As you probably know perfectly well, Chavez's government has a better record in that regard than probably any previous Venezuelan government, than any South American government I can think of off hand, and indeed far better than the record of the United States during his tenure, or say in the 60s-70s. Heck, there were generals armpit deep in a coup against him, who even in Canada where I come from would have ended up in jail for life for treason, who were just forced to retire. Certainly he has a better record than those elements of the opposition who had been in power once upon a time.
Yes, everyone already knows this stuff. I just don't like letting blatant lies go unchallenged, even when the blatant lies are tiresome repetitions so hackneyed I feel like just ignoring them.
Purple Library Guy
There are some right-wingers who use to venture their hatred in this forum. Often they don't present any reasoning and are not worthy to aswer too.
Thanks for the great analysis on the add btw.
Indeed, PLG very well said. I particularly like the way you put this:
"it conveys that Chavez believes in his policies and ideology based on the same forces that form him as a person"
You said in one sentence what it took me an entire post to say
As you probably know perfectly well, Chavez's government has a better record in that regard than probably any previous Venezuelan government, than any South American government I can think of off hand, and indeed far better than the record of the United States during his tenure, or say in the 60s-70s.What exactly do you mean by "better record"?
Well, for Chavez and Che Guevara:
Love, authentic LOVE is shown to your fellow human beings when you do NOT KILL THEM, DO NOT TORTURE THEM, DO NOT IMPRISON THEM or order them to be KILLED, TORTURED, IMPRISONED.
Particularly if you happen to believe that THIS LIFE, in THIS WORLD, is the ONLY one there is, the only shot at it that WE HUMANS get. More so then...
Lorenzo | Homepage | 10.16.06 - 3:28 pm | #
So, Lorenzo...remind us again of why you support "W stands for War" Bush, who has killed, tortured and imprisoned more people than Castro and Chavez combined.
BTW, whom HAVE C and C tortured, killed and imprisoned, anyway? I bet the list of names is a helluva lot shorter than the Lancet's latest true casualty figures from Iraq.
Care to justify THAT bit of "love", Lorenzo?
No???
Thought so.
BTW, OW, speaking of Rosales campaign strategies not working: Did you see his "Mi Negra" speech? Aporrea had the video a few days ago. He kissed a "negra" as part of the gimmick, but couldn't refrain from IMMEDIATELY wiping his mouth! It was priceless--the racism and lovelessness of the oppos, unconsciously summed up in a nutshell!
I find it funny how the chavez crowd is dwelling on Rosales wiping his face after kissing this lady. God forbid it be hot in Caracas. Keep trying to make a issue over nothing, it helps the NiNis make their decisions.
Bina: How would I tell you: I DO NOT SUPPORT WAR!!! NOHOW! NO WAY! I DO NOT BELIEVE IN ARMIES. THE WORLD WOULD BE A BETTER PLACE IF SOME FACTORIES PRODUCED CARS FOR US TO DRIVE INSTEAD OF TANKS AND AIRLINERS FOR US TO TRAVEL INSTEAD OF FIGHTERS!!!
And Chavez has killed. What was that the 4 February 1992 or the 27 November? Even if I do not stick him with 11th April or with the things his followers have done since there is enough...
Che Guevara imprisoned, tortured and killed, himself or by firing squad: BY THE HUNDREDS IF NOT THE THOUSANDS. And I do not talk about combat deaths. I talk about persons that were HOGTIED and defenseless. In Cuba, in Congo and in Bolivia.
Decide Bina: Are you ILL INFORMED AND IGNORANT or is it that you support killing when it suits your ideological agenda? In any case do dissemble no more: you do not love persons.
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