Enjoy your break.
Truth is you need to muster the balls to say that the Revolution is a fiasco on all counts. Good time to break, this blog was getting too dense.
Have a good time.
I can understand the desire for a break. After a while it starts to feel like you are repeating yourself, both in your posts and in discussions in your comment section. I stopped blogging myself for the same reason.
Thanks for such a great blog. It's rare to find people who are so objective, especially when it comes to commentary on Venezuela.
Best of luck.
Thanks so much for all the thoughts, you will be missed. Come back whenever the pressure in your head gets too high and you just need to say something.
This is where you go for analysis about Venezuela.
I think you'll return soon. The opposition doesn't rest.
All the best.
what? does that mean we are going to try to discuss things at oppo blogs?
Best luck and thank you for this interesting blog.
thanks for a great site, hope you have a really nice time doing whatever it was that brought you to venezuela in the first place.
Good riddance you anti communist fool. Going to yankee land are we liar. You used to talk sense until you joined the opposition and started to tell great lies. You will not be missed by many people who consider you a failure
I'm with grac. This hiatus of sorts comes from Dan without him admitting a truth as big as a house: Chavismo sucks big time, it's ruining the country and people supposed to run things don't have the slightest idea of what they're doing, and .
Take Minister Chacin, for example, on the auto-kidnapping performed by prisoners' relatives at El Rodeo. He actually said that the "U.S. empire is to blame". And what about the 'anti-inflationary' measures?
With these clowns in 'command', we can't except anything but failure. Dan-OW himself is to blame too for all these years of blind support.
Also, Dan, where's your mea culpa on supporting terrorism?
"I'm with grac. This hiatus of sorts comes from Dan without him admitting a truth as big as a house: Chavismo sucks big time, it's ruining the country"
Maybe you haven't been there in long time and so don't know but the country isn't exactly being ruined. If it were I doubt Venezuelans would keep electing those doing the ruining.
Now, I'll be the first to agree that Chavismo has some HUGE flaws, large enough that one day they might well bring the country to ruin. And I'll admit that I misjudged many things.
But your not happy that I am supposedly not fessing up fast enough???? I don't know, I think it is quite clear where I diverge from Chavismo and also what I have been wrong on. Moreover where are others fessing up for supporting a coup or supporting an oil strike which did huge damamge both to Venezuela overall and to the political discourse in the country? Lets everyone here make sure they see the log in their own eye...
This isn't a one way street. And the people who are really still in the wrong here are those who think one side or the other here have a monopoly on virtue or a monopoly on faillings. Neither side does even though some commenters here may well have enough youthfull arrogance to think the other side does.
And until someone who emerges who spends more time putting forth positive and constructive ideas for exactly what should be done to make the country better rather than just engaging in the Venezuelan blood sport of shredding their opponents Venezuela won't be going anywhere good. So M.T. if you are a Venezuelan patriot, which I trust you are, you should think about that as at least your compatriot Kepler does.
Good luck, thank you for taking the time to post. Thinking about Venezuela and it's politics everyday will drive you nuts!!! Do what we Venezuelans do. Go to the beach with your friends and family and bring a cooler full of whatever.....
OW,
Ignore Mario. He's shown time and again how ridiculously incapable he is of having a constructive discussion about anything.
As for your time off, I wonder if I can have any influence on what you spend your time reading?
Just a couple recommendations that I think would be useful for you, many of which I've already given you:
For an explanation of why Venezuela would not be able to rely on world markets to fuel its industrialization, and why poor countries need to unite to confront trade imperialism:
Dilemmas of Domination, by Walden Bello
(this should also remind you of that little thing called Imperialism, and why it is still relevant)
For a good general overview of current concepts in economic development, why an export-based strategy isn't viable, and why pretty much the only way forward is South-South integration, read:
Economic Development, by Michael Todaro
For an old, but still valid explanation for why third world capitalists seldom invest in industry, and why this kind of investment will have to come from the state (and won't be stimulated by market forces, like devalued currency):
The Political Economy of Growth, Paul Baran
For a concise, but good explanation of the general trends of the world economy since WWII:
The Boom and the Bubble, Robert Brenner
(this book gives a short explanation of the general trends that allowed the late-developing countries in Asia to develop in the 60's and 70's, and why the US made efforts to turn the tide back in the face of declining profits due to foreign competition from newly industrializing countries. Another reason why this strategy is no longer viable.)
As for some general theory on imperialism, and why it is a product of capitalist development:
Lenin: Imperialism, the highest stage of capitalism
Bukharin: Imperialism and World Economy
And for a real basic and concise explanation for why capitalism is a disaster, and the root of the problem, not the solution.
Why Marx still matters, Paul D'Amato
Okay, that's all I can think of right now.
Oh, and just in general. I think you should read more on China, and how they are able to pursue development differently than most other underdeveloped countries. Why the size of their domestic market gives them so much more power in world trade. But also why their model is also creating such a disastrous monster of inequality, human exploitation, concentrated economic power, and ecological distruction, that it would be a terrible idea to emulate them.
I'm actually looking for something good and relatively up-to-date to read on China's economy. If you know of anything in particular, I'd be interested.
Tosh, have you ever worked in a position that required labor? ...or have you always been a member of the privileged landed classes? It's easy to be a Marxist when someone else's labor is paying your bills. From experience in the real world I can tell you that your reliance on Marxist doctrine to lift up those in poverty will fail.
I read your blog but have not posted comments too often. The world needs to re-think how things are done. Chavez is attempting to do some things differently,some may fail and some may succeed. What I do not like is the way he wants to hold on to the presidency forever.
We need a neutral blog that says what is happening truthfully and not taking sides as in a Chavez blog or an opposition blog.
Have a good rest and hopefully you return with fresh ideas and stronger than ever.
I haven't been around for awhile, and I was just planning to catch up on your recent posts about the failings of Chavismo economic policy, when I saw this today.
While we haven't always seen things eye to eye, we have at least been in the same ballpark, and your posts about the dire consequences of the country's overvalued currency are on the mark. After all, in a broader context, does anyone not recognize that the US may be playing a devious game of trying to reinvigorate its manufacturing sector through a devalued dollar? Look at the consequences for Europe and East Asia if it persists.
It's not easy to find, but I think that the neoconservatives have talked about this from time to time, suggesting that the war on terror necessitates a more nationalistic economic policy. So, there are geopolitical reasons that justify being concerned about the overvalued Bolivar as well, as it plays into the hands of the G-8. If Venezuela is going to develop an agricultural sector, then it requires a combination of pragmatic left and right policies, left on putting land in the hands of people who actually want to farm it, and right in the sense of making sure that the production is competitive with other countries.
I could go on and on, but I think that I will conclude with best wishes in your future endeavors. If I may, here are some friendly suggestions for more "in-depth" reading, not necessarily dependent upon a connection to Venezuela: (1) the recent English translation of the 1947 Victor Serge novel, Unforgiving Year, about the tragedy of the anti-Stalinist left before, during and after World War II, a great book that anticipates the work of Thomas Pynchon: (2) the recent Verso release of Political Interventions, a collection of political writings of Pierre Boudrieu, for some reason, I think that a lot of his sociological analysis about the creation of cultural and economic elites and how they perpetuate themselves may be pertinent to the Venezuelan experience; (3) anything by Peter Linebaugh, The London Hanged, The Many Headed Hydra and, most recently, The Magna Carta Manifesto, as he is a very inventive historian who integrates the history of culture, social movements and capitalist development within the context of the transatlantic trade of the 17th and 18th centuries; (4) the Hayashi Fumiko novel, Floating Clouds, a fascinating story, brilliantly told in a folkloric style, about the interrelationship of fascism and misogyny in Japan during and just after World War II; (5) a book that I found over the weekend, Walking Tractor, by Bruce Patterson, about the lost history of the work of loggers, artisans, and farm laborers in Mendocino County, told by someone who lived that life and socialized with others who did as well; and (6) a great Seven Stories Press release about the the Lower East Side of NYC, Resistance: A Radical Social and Political History of the Lower East Side
(con't)
Also, it is always worth checking out the AK Press website, they invariably have something unusual, interesting and eclectic. As you can see, I have by and large recommend things without any obvious purpose, but you probably don't need my recommendations, being a pretty independent minded person.
Anyway, enjoy yourself, and please stop by and visit my blog, American Leftist, from time to time and comment. Also, if you get the urge to write something from time to time, outside of the framework of this blog, I would love to post them, book reviews (as you are about to read a number of them it seems), film reviews (by all means, watch a lot of them!) and just plain personal experiences. So, you have a standing invitation to do that, if you get the urge, if not, just come by and say hello every now and then.
--Richard Estes
Have fun OW. Go to the beach.. .relax...
Shoulda done a post about the 37 relatives Cilia Flores has working at the AN. That must be a world record.
Have a good break. A person needs that now and then. Thanks for having put up the blog all this time, doing the posts, the analysis and so forth. You don't owe it to us. Having it around has been a privilege.
It's been a privilege for the dorks and the plant (LaFevre--if he's a real Communist I'll eat my hat) as well as for the rest of us, or they wouldn't keep on coming back. I might have expected a little bit of grace from them, a little recognition of the space you've made available for them while never controlling their offensive rants in any way. But I didn't really. All politics aside, what ungrateful putzes.
Thanks for the posts. I find most of your posts very informative and appreciate the amount of time and effort you put into them.
It's unfortunate that some of your long time readers (ex: grac) are bashing you for this as if it has something to do with you taking some time to see what the opposition has been saying. As if you had been wrong and need some time to reflect.
This is a counter-revolutinary step backwards -
ESQUALIDO!
OW, though we have had our (sometimes heated) disagreements, I have come to somewhat understand where you are coming from--as well as REALLY respect your sense of fair play, social justice, and belief in uncovering that most enigmatic of concepts, 'the truth'.
Take some well deserved time off, reading deeply the thinkers that stoke your curiosity, enjoy your family, etc.---but, please, do an occasional post here and there when your are inspired to voice your points of view.
Suerte compadre.
Yeah, the guy Steve L.---please. He would have fit in well in Stalin's Soviet Union. Crazy effer. And it is to OW's credit that he never attempted to ban the guy or erase his comments (another exemplary trait of OW's--unlike 'some' bloggers we all know.
I will have to say that I was disappointed when OW did not help me patent and popularize the oligarch plow. Oh well, I am not bitter about it. 
Jesus Christ Slave, when will you give up the mantle of he-who-decides-who-is-righteous?
As for your enigmatic concept of "the truth," go read some post-structuralism. You're treading in the backwater of religion with such words.
Ow, take care, read some fun stuff as well.
Take a public library card, else you will become broke with all the books.
Tips: Ideas: From Fire to Freud (Watson), Collapse (Diamond) - I think I mentioned this last one. For the first one you will need a lot of time but it gives a nice overview of the history of Ideas
Good luck ow, rest up and be well.
Or I can post here and there, but like you my friend - I also do not have the time.
Youre wrong slave. That guy ow has deleted my comments so get your facts right mate. Ps i was anti soviet union so i would not have fitted in there at all slave
Thanks for all the comments and reading recommendations. I already have the Todaro Economic Development text and have browsed it. For sure I will read big parts of it.
Also want to read Stiglitz's books on globalization.
Oh, and I am reading "El Terrorismo del Estado en Colombia" which I got for $1 in Venezuela and is quite good
Well, if everybody's already giving reading recommendations, I'll join in.
- To get the macro stuff:
http://www.oup.com/uk/catalogue/
...i=9780199264964
(well written, well presented, light on maths)
- To get the balance the international stuff:
http://books.google.com/books?
id...=robert+mundell
(yes, it's old, but nowhere as lucid; if you do not understand it i here, you'll probably never understand it)
ow, I too have been in a bit of a hiatus. I will try and burden a bit of the load at least make 1-2 weekly posts. Keep things warm until you come back 
Thanks Flanker
Oh, no! Here comes the numbers about how the crime situation is improving and how our economy is getting stronger!
Sire
kind of funny they call it "European" macroeconomics.
Is European macroeconomics different than anyone elses?
BTW, Sire, I assume you've noted that inflation really does look like its starting to get out of control in some developed economies, particularly the U.S.
U.S. workers would probably start to insist on bigger annual increases save for the fact that the employment picture is also getting worse so they don't have much leverage.
Well, almost all macro books have an "American perspective", i.e. regarding case studies, data, etc. It's the usual macroeconomics, but with some "European content", such as data not just for the US, but also Europe, some European monetary history, etc. But, all very well written and light on maths.
Inflation: look at core inflation, not headline inflation, that is what matters. And, as long as you have a credible central bank and a flexible labour market, it won't get out of hand. Naturally, central bankers need to be somewhat hard-nosed now; which is not so easy though, given the deteriorating growth.
And wage increases axed on headline inflation would be the worst thing people could request now, as this could start a dangerous inflation spiral (of the sort VZ has), in response to which the central bank would have to raise interest rates to combat inflation (with, as a consequence, a deeper recession). And the danger for that in Europe is actually higher because of the relatively widely used collective wage bargaining in which employees have considerably more leverage than in individual ones. So, voilà here a European aspect of macroeconomics. All this stuff is very well explained in the book, thus my recommending it.
Oh, and I am reading "El Terrorismo del Estado en Colombia" which I got for $1 in Venezuela and is quite good
ow | Homepage | 07.18.08 - 2:26 pm |
Read stuff that distorts your already sick point of view on Colombia? What for? Is it possible that you can show even more support for terrorist Farc?
Por qué no leer algo que vaya en contra de lo que piensas? Te sugiero 'Manuel del Perfecto Idiota Latinoamericano', y 'El Regreso del Idiota'. Es una sugerencia retórica. Ya se que no vas a leer un carajo.
ow, I too have been in a bit of a hiatus. I will try and burden a bit of the load at least make 1-2 weekly posts. Keep things warm until you come back
Flanker | 07.18.08 - 3:33 pm | #
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Now this is going to get really funny. Bring it on Flanker!!!
"Por qué no leer algo que vaya en contra de lo que piensas? Te sugiero 'Manuel del Perfecto Idiota Latinoamericano',"
Ya lo lei.
"Inflation: look at core inflation, not headline inflation, that is what matters."
I've never been a fan of that. Why would you do that? People have to pay for energy and food costs so why would they be unimportant.
Furhter, when giving the Venezuelan inflation rate I've never heard it given without those segments included.
I've never been a fan of that. Why would you do that? People have to pay for energy and food costs so why would they be unimportant.
These prices fluctuate stronger than other ones, thus by not including them, you prevent erratic monetary policy. Also, monetary policy outcomes are *better* when targeting core inflation, rather than headline inflation.
"Popular" inflation figures are always the headline numbers, that's why you may not have seen them..
OW - you realize that whatever reason you give for taking a break, the oppos will classify you as a repentant chavista and other as a counter revolutionary.
Make sure you do not vanish for good and I hope that El Pulpo and Flanker can take up the slack for a while with one or two posts a week.
BTW Mario and Jsb - go take a hike to Colombia and watch unionists being murdered.
Well, I for one would welcome any contributions by Flanker.
About criticisms of 'the Truth' from some anonymous esqualido: please the parenthetical highlight of the term in itself alludes to the problematic nature of the concept--as it is habitually deployed in a concrete, procrustean fashion by apologists and defenders of the forces of the status quo.
"Truth' and 'fact' are different animals.
Anyway, I am sure that OW gets my intention.
Mario--your typical of the feeble rightwing. You call names--'terrorist'--and impune OW without bringing any argument to the forefront of discussion.
The oligarch control of most of the media has addled your mind--your ability to critically think through issues is retarded.
Dissect the concept 'terrorism' and follow how it is used in political discourse--and then go look in the mirror, if you dare.
Tosh, have you ever had a job? ...in the labor market? I don't think you ever have.
BTW Mario and Jsb - go take a hike to Colombia and watch unionists being murdered.That might be hard to do considering unionist murders are down. If you really want to see people getting killed, Venezuela is your place. Sad, but true.
Jeez, OW, your friends over at CC are really tearing into you bro.
I tried to stick up for you--but you know that they simply censor my comments.
Slave - I sincerely hope tha OW reflects and realizes that the first thing the opposition would do if they get back into power is string him up - figuratively as they are now, and if he lived in Venezuela physically.
Forget those idiots on CC. They just want to score political points.
Don't sweat it Slave. I'm not.
It is sort of funny - the people getting on me about whether I've fully "repented" or "admitted" my errors are the very same people who have spent the last 4 or 5 years argueing the coup wasn't a coup and that all of Chavez's electoral victories were fraudulent!! So much for introspection on their part.
Anonymous, you are probably right. All the more reason why things need to be done RIGHT and those who see them being done wrong need to speak out and fight for them to be fixed. The price of failure will indeed be high for all of Venezuela and for those who currently benefit from the things Chavez has accomplished up to this point. Hence my anger at Chavez and those around him - at Chavez for his stupid policies and crazy form of governance (and Francisco is right in what he wrote about that) and at those around him for their cowardice and/or opportunism.
at Chavez for his stupid policies and crazy form of governance (and Francisco is right in what he wrote about that) and at those around him for their cowardice and/or opportunism.
Jeez, OW, I can't believe you let Quico convince you about things that he knows nothing about.
He claims that it has to do with Chavez only promoting ministers that are loyal to him (would you expect him to promote people who aren't loyal?), but that doesn't prove anything about how policy decisions are made.
I have had some inside views of how policy decisions are made, and Quico's version isn't even close to the truth. The policies are based on specific goals, and are changed whenever the goals they have set are not being achieved.
For god's sake, many of Chavez's ministers over the years have been old guys like Rangel, Giordani, Ali Rodriguez. etc. who were militant communists since before Chavez was even alive, and were more like fathers to Chavez than his loyal kiss-asses. They designed policies based on what they thought worked, not based on some die-hard loyalty to Chavez.
And Chavez has often recognized when specific polices are not working. He hasn't changed many of the specific policies that you take issue with not because of some "loyalty" complex among his ministers, but rather because they believe these are the right policies!!! I've talked to people inside the government about those very policies that you object to, and they defend them with intelligent arguments.
You might think they are wrong. I think they are right, and trust their knowledge of the economy more than yours. But, regardless, it has nothing to do with Quico's nonsense explanation.
The reason they haven't been changed is because the policy-makers in the Chavez government sincerely believe these are the correct policies.
Tosh:
FT hasn't convinced me of that. The conclusion comes from watching how things happen there over a long period of time. And while I have ZERO inside info it sure DOES look like how it goes (and BTW, Wilpert, who does have some inside contact has noted this in the past too).
Lets just take one example: Chavez announcing on TV (and it really looked like he made the decision right then and there) to eliminate many tolls on highways). In the whole discussion (and I did a post with the video of this) did he ever really discuss the rational of it, the financial impact, how revenues would be made up, what the alternatives were, etc? no he didn't. As far as what was said in public went it was just a fiat decision with no explanation of the cost/benefits behind it. And then, as an apparent afterthougt, a minister comes out later in the week and says the government will keep all the toll collectors on the payroll!
Now, maybe there WAS more to it than that. But I have to say, after years of watching these sorts of decisions (and the 10 brigades to the border was another famous recent one) they sure do look capricious, not thought out, and amatuerish
"Rangel, Giordani, Ali Rodriguez"
That might be true of the three of them, but not of most others. And of those three Rangel is just a talker who does nothing, Giordani I don't know much about but he has never impressed me, and Ali Rodriguez is very good but he has been sidelined in recent years until a month ago.
But when I look at all the incoherent and false statements coming from someone like El Troudi, who may be a very decent person, I can't help but see ideology and loyalty taking precedence over competance.
Now, maybe there WAS more to it than that. But I have to say, after years of watching these sorts of decisions (and the 10 brigades to the border was another famous recent one) they sure do look capricious, not thought out, and amatuerish
ow | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 2:16 pm | #
But I think you are mixing two different things here. No one is doubting that Chavez makes very capricious decisions from time to time, and has that kind of style when it comes to less important policy decisions.
But that's not how the economic policies have been put in place. It wasn't just some whimsical notion on Chavez' part to make all kinds of economic agreements with China, for example. That was a well-thought-out strategy. Or the plans to being in technology from Iran. This isn't something that Chavez just blurted out one day. They are things that have been planned among planning committees.
Currency controls aren't just some dumb notion that occured to Chavez. They are an intelligent way to avoid capital flight.
But when I look at all the incoherent and false statements coming from someone like El Troudi, who may be a very decent person, I can't help but see ideology and loyalty taking precedence over competance.
The only false thing I have seen him say is that the currency is not overvalued. And it actually makes perfect sense for him to say that, since he wouldn't want to make people worry about keeping their money in Bolivars.
Did you see this?:
http://www.rnv.gov.ve/noticias/i...=ST&f=4&
t=73972
Este domingo, el presidente de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, informó que, próximamente, el país exportará vehículos, maíz y arroz.
Asimismo, el Primer Mandatario Nacional, durante el programa Aló Presidente número 314, señaló que eventualmente se exportarán otros productos, cada vez en mayor dimensión, diferentes al petróleo. Indicó que la pronta exportación de arroz y maíz se debe al esfuerzo del Gobierno Bolivariano en aplicar nuevas tecnologías para la siembra de estos cereales.
Not going to work until they get the curency and other issues staigtened out.
Not going to work until they get the curency and other issues staigtened out.
ow | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 3:11 pm | #
We'll have to wait and see what they decide to do when they begin to export.
Chavez has always said they will begin to export production as soon as domestic needs are taken care of. I don't think corn or rice production meets domestic needs yet, so its will probably be awhile before they begin to export.
They could decide to do something about the currency, or they could simply subsidize the exports. They have a number of options. But I think its fairly obvious that they will make the necessary policy changes when they need to.
OW, I just think that it is pathetic that they attack you--while you present staid, rational arguments for your point of view to their face.
I love how their comprador-authoritarianism comes to the fore--when they imply that all US folks should fully back whatever crazed, illegal, imperialist slaughter that our government decides to wage. It is really sick shit. These are pathetic boot-lickers for the crapitalist, imperial order.
No wonder the vast majority of Venezuelans detest these vendepatria toadies.
About the arguments between you and Tosh. Again, I have to come down more on the side of Tosh in these debates. Sure, you make great points of criticism--and I agree with you that Chavez many times appears impetuous and half-assed--but I tend to think that there is a method to the seeming madness.
Simply stated, I think that Chavez is trying to develop along import substitution lines--but the government is engaging this in the face of tremendous domestic resistance on the part of Quicos compadres the the vendepatria upper classes.
ow,
some sensible talk regarding economic policy in venezuela
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/...m/analysis/
3661
keep the faith dude,
Good link John Smartt,
As I have explained here before, the Venezuelan government is barely obtaining control over major sectors of the economy. At this point, it isn't reasonable to expect industry to be growing at a fast rate. The government first needs to gain control over major sectors, and then they can begin to plan for an industrial process.
Ramirez verifies this:
Now we are focussed on broadening out our productive capacities: we believe that activities fundamental for the economic development of Venezuela, such as basic industries, industrial complexes, petrochemicals, industries capable of creating and reproducing economic activity etc. have to be in the hands of the state in order to have a real possibility to begin to construct socialism. Until now we did not even have this possibility, because the means of production were under private control. But does this mean we want to control the entire economic chain? No! There is peripheral activity and services that we are not interested in. Our objective is to make the presence of the state hegemonic in the country’s large basic industries in order to be able to plan the economy. Having this control we could decide that certain products and certain goods be destined to a specific objective, that is, to guarantee that the elementary needs of our population are attended to.
What do you say OW? Is this guy just a clown too? Or a loyal ass-kisser to Chavez?
Sure doesn't sound like it.
Tosh - high five for Ramírez. OW - don't you think you may have been sucked in by too much capitalist logic and even values?
one of the problems is that, from my limited experience, the apparatus of government in Venezuela is too decentralized to carry out the type of program described by Ramirez
it is a serious paradox, the desire to impose state control over basic industries, however defined, in a country without any coherent political and administrative system
James Petras has tended to emphasize the dilemma of agriculture as fundamental to the country's future, the need to exploit land that is not being farmed by putting it in the hands of campesinos in a country that imports about 80% of its agricultural commodities
in effect, this is the Chinese Road to economic development, which I believe that Chavez could travel in a more compassionate way than Deng did, one that would employ lots of people and economically empower them, with immediate benefit for the people of Venezuela
but the government has never possessed the political will to unused land held by absentee landlords and turn them over to farmers
cooperative campesino farming would generate synergistic effects through the economy for goods and services, again facilitating economic development, and eventual industrialization, not to mention the creation of a social class that would strongly identify as Bolivarian
now, I know that Ow tends to side with those who see the campesinos as a workforce for industry and services, which has been used an an excuse to avoid challenging absentee landowners (the need to reassure capital investment and all that), but I believe that the emergence of a viable agricultural sector is a precondition to it
if the Bolivarian Revolution fails, this will be remembered as one of the major reasons that it did
Ramirez's comments were indeed interesting. He pointed out many things that many outside observers of Venezuela often don't understand - the tiny size of the working class, the battle over the oil rents, and that the fundamental distinction in Venezuela isn't a class one but rather who gets the oil rents and who doesn't.
As far as what he said about nationalizing industry as a necessary precursor for development, I dont' know that I agree. Is the problem with housing that they really just didn't have enough cemement? I've never heard that, even as a defense offered by the government. Same for the rest.
So I would make three points on this:
A) if nationalizing these industries was so important then why did they wait so long to do it?? Why not do it in 2005 for example? They had the money.
B) if the problem was a shortage of materials or control couldn't you build NEW industry instead of buying existing industry and thereby get the materials and control you need AND a bunch of new production and jobs?
C) the numbers don't seem to show this as being important. Remember, manufacturing was growing by about 7% per year up until this past year. Coincidentally the nationalizations occur and growth is now 1%. I am not saying the nationalizations are responsible for the drop, I don't think they are, but it does show there is more going on here.
In any event, if what RR says is true when should we expect to start seeing results? When should they be able to meet their housing targets for example? If the only thing that was holding it up was lack of concrete and steel and they now have those things I would think they should meet their numbers in the second half of this year. Will they? We'll see.
A) if nationalizing these industries was so important then why did they wait so long to do it?? Why not do it in 2005 for example? They had the money.
Taking control of PDVSA was one of the first things they worked on, way back in 2001.
I would imagine that they have to guage the political situation. You can't just nationalize everything all at once. Not only would it create enourmous political instability, but it would also cause economic problems, and capital flight.
Who knows what the exact explanation is for them not doing it in 2005, but is it really relevant? Renationalization is obviously their intention, regardless of whether they did it in 2005 or 2007 or 2002.
B) if the problem was a shortage of materials or control couldn't you build NEW industry instead of buying existing industry and thereby get the materials and control you need AND a bunch of new production and jobs?
You're kinda missing the point here. Before you can build new industry you need things like cement, steel, gravel, etc.
That's the whole point of them taking over these sectors, so that they can control the flow of these inputs, and make sure that they aren't being exported to other countries.
C) the numbers don't seem to show this as being important. Remember, manufacturing was growing by about 7% per year up until this past year. Coincidentally the nationalizations occur and growth is now 1%. I am not saying the nationalizations are responsible for the drop, I don't think they are, but it does show there is more going on here.
Looking back I think much of that manufacturing growth was a recovery of the 2002-2003 economic collapse. Things like manufacturing were high growth as they caught back up to their pre-2002 levels. Now they've more or less leveled off.
but the government has never possessed the political will to unused land held by absentee landlords and turn them over to farmers
Richard, do you have any more info on this? From what I know they ARE expropriating unused land at a decent rate.
I'd be interested to see info that says otherwise. That could indeed be a major problem if agrarian reform isn't being carried out effectively.
James Petras has tended to emphasize the dilemma of agriculture as fundamental to the country's future, the need to exploit land that is not being farmed by putting it in the hands of campesinos in a country that imports about 80% of its agricultural commodities in effect, this is the Chinese Road to economic development,
I think this is correct. Land reform is essential, and it was a very important ingredient for development in places like China.
But I wouldn't go so far as calling it the "chinese road to economic development."
The Chinese road since 1979 implies a whole lot more, including a big dose of capitalist inequality and exploitation.
My impression is that the Venezuelan government understands the importance of agricultural reform. This is why they have placed so much emphasis on improving ag production recently.
I had the chance to interview Petras last fall, and he was critical of the government's efforts, but he may have been behind the curve.
Perhaps, the government has improved its efforts in this area, but from 2005-2007, what they said in Caracas was not what was necessarily happening western Venezuela.
Of course, the Chinese Road implies a number of harsh Friedmanesque capitalist measures, which I would not like to see applied in Venezuela, but the general principle of spurring economic development by first moving the agricultural sector forward is valid.
You have inspired me to look into this question more closely to see what has transpired in the last year or so. In order for domestic agricultural production to be competitive with imports, the government will have to address the extent to which its currency is overvalued, and, if so, the extent to which it favors agricultural imports over domestic production.
In order for domestic agricultural production to be competitive with imports, the government will have to address the extent to which its currency is overvalued, and, if so, the extent to which it favors agricultural imports over domestic production.
I agree with most of what you said, but on this I don't agree.
The way Venezuela's currency controls work mean that they don't have to worry about imported production undercutting domestic production for the simple reason that they only approve the importation of anything that domestic production cannot supply. So, this means that imported production doesn't compete with domestic production on the open market. The Venezuelan government looks at how much milk they need, for example, and then they look at how much of that domestic production will cover, and they import whatever they need above and beyond what is produced locally. So, in other words, domestic production is pretty much guaranteed to be consumed in the local market.
this assumes that there isn't a black market for agricultural commodities in Venezuela
here in the US, which allows for the relatively free movement of goods by comparison, there is such a market when it comes to quality and grading standards, people purchasing non-conforming produce for restaurants, inner city markets, etc.
What do you say OW? Is this guy just a clown too? Or a loyal ass-kisser to Chavez?
Sure doesn't sound like it.
Tosh | 07.22.08 - 12:42 pm | #
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------------------------------
Actually he is both. Funny how the only credential this pseudo-journalist can give of Ramirez is his political background. Actually that is very telling of what is valued in the Revolution. Technically Ramirez is worthless and PDVSA is going down the drain.
this assumes that there isn't a black market for agricultural commodities in Venezuela
But for imports? The only way I can imagine that happening is if they come across the border with Colombia. Otherwise it would be pretty hard to import a substantial amount of foreign goods without going through CADIVI, wouldn't it?
Funny how the only credential this pseudo-journalist can give of Ramirez is his political background. Actually that is very telling of what is valued in the Revolution.
I didn't talk about his background at all. I posted from a recent interview of him about the economic policies.
Graciela, let's face it. You're a raving moron, and that's why no one discusses anything of any importance with you.
well, I did encounter someone once who illegally brought some produce from Mexico into California for restaurant purchase, so it doesn't strike me as implausible that produce could be brought into Venezuela from elsewhere on the continent, although, transport might be more challenging, and more dependent upon air and sea than here in the US
"The Venezuelan government looks at how much milk they need, for example, and then they look at how much of that domestic production will cover, and they import whatever they need above and beyond what is produced locally. "
Interesting you happened to pick this example. just today one of the agricultural associations was calling on the government to stop imports of milk because they said the market was oversaturated and domestic production was losing out. According to them domestic production was way up after the price controls were lifted and consumption was down 10% [interesting how the opponents of Chavez complained when there were lines to get milk but don't complain at all when consumption is down - guess that shows what ARE and ARE NOT their priorities.]
From Panorama newspaper today:
Agricultores piden suspensión de la importación de lácteos
Texto:
Consumo de lácteos se ha reducido por altos precios de alimentos.
La Federación Nacional de Agricultores venezolanos (Fedenaga) pidió ayer al Gobierno que suspenda inmediatamente, y al menos durante dos meses, la importación de productos lácteos con el fin de incentivar la venta de la producción nacional.
“Estamos solicitando al Gobierno que suspenda inmediatamente la importación de leche, por lo menos por dos meses”, pidió el presidente del gremio, Genaro Méndez.
Para Genaro Méndez, el consumo de lácteos se ha reducido en Venezuela debido a los elevados precios de los alimentos, que hizo que la demanda se redujera cerca de un 10% este año, según los responsables de los supermercados.
Además, el actual período de vacaciones escolares, durante el que siempre se consume menos leche y carne, sumada a las importaciones, hacen que la producción nacional, estimulada por las recientes lluvias, no tenga espacio.
Por otra parte, el experto criticó que productos nacionales como los quesos blancos no puedan ser comercializados correctamente debido a la terrible competencia de los productos importados, que resultan más económicos que los locales.
Yep, so obviously Fedenaga understands how its supposed to work. The government doesn't authorize the import of goods unless the domestic production can't meet demand.
Who knows what the truth is with the milk situation. You never know if you can trust what these business groups are saying, or what their real motives are. But that's how its supposed to work, and I would expect the government to cut back milk imports if what Fedenaga says is true.
I wonder if they'll call this guy a "dictator"?:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/2...ml?
ref=americas
I wonder if they'll call this guy a "dictator"?:
--ow
very funny. never happen in usa.
It is about time someone brought this up:
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/y...oticia.php?
8329
The opposition is bitching about some of their candidates not being allowed to stand for the local elections. But actually, all of them should be banned from the elections because in direct contradiction of the Venezuelan Constitution they WEREN'T chosen via primaries.
Instead they are using, get this, opinion polls to select their candidates!!!!!!!!!
And to think, these are the same people who always complain about Venezuelan elections not being transparent enough How do they know candidates aren't just being decided on by a few and then the polls later being dummied up to justify that selection? Enquiring minds should want to know
I wonder if they'll call this guy a "dictator"?:
Yeah, so he's going to change the constitution to get a third term. And they don't even mention that they already changed the constitution once so that he could go a second term, and that they have recently discovered evidence that they bribed congressmen to vote for the constitutional change the first time. Not to mention the fact that he has intimate ties to paramilitaries, who are responsible for the vast majority of killing and violence in Colombia.
That's why people like Quico from the Venezuelan opposition totally discredit themselves when they give tacit support for the Colombian government, and when they show utter glee at Uribe's political victories.
I swear, its almost like they haven't taken the time to analyze anything, and simply form their political opinions around what "feels good" to them.
I liked the site, too bad you will be away for a bit. I just stumbled upon it. If anyone wants check us out we are at http://www.semipolitico.com
Here is something showing how corrupt and incestous the Venezuelan elite (and opposition) is:
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/y...oticia.php?
8378
But here is an even more important question. Why was the Venezuelan government giving scholarships, using hard earned and scarce foriegn currency, for people to study theology?!?!?!?!?!?!
When you are a poor and underdeveloped country wouldn't having well trained engineers, managers, and scientists be more important than having theologians??
But here is an even more important question. Why was the Venezuelan government giving scholarships, using hard earned and scarce foriegn currency, for people to study theology?!?!?!?!?!?!
Dude, it was the Fourth Republic. What do you expect? And his dad was the head of Fundayacucho.
No wonder Leopoldo hates this government so much, because his daddy isn't in charge of a state organ anymore, and can't be handing out money to his friends and family.
another thoughtful look at the revolution:
http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArt...ewArticle/
18250
"Dude, it was the Fourth Republic. What do you expect? And his dad was the head of Fundayacucho."
Yes, I know. The same stupidity.
BTW, his mother had a high position in PDVSA and used it to steer money to Primero Justicia.
Well, good luck and I hope you will take advantage of the time out. Over the years you have made some very valuable and insightful observations, but your main criticism of the Bolivarian revolution -its lack of an Economic Plan- is valid for pretty much any nation in the world today -and thus lacks any true punch. Tell me of just one nation in the whole wide world today that has a well specified economic plan? China? Mexico? Chile? USA? Germany? France? South Korea? None of them has it. They just follow on certain broad pro-capitalist and mostly neoliberal formulas, which boil down on merely how to use the people, the natural resources, the State, etc., for furthering the interests of small corporate elites. And that is why we continue to inch towards the abyss. On the other hand, that none of us knows today exactly how to further the transition towards a true Socialist Non-State centric system, is clearly a shortcoming that is quite evident in Venezuela. But the Revolution is not merely about the economy. Thus, the advances in so many other spheres besides the economy, somehow compensate for these limitations. Although, one has to admit that it is imperative to develop such a plan. I`m convinced that over the next few years, the world will experience an economic collapse of truly apocaliptic proportions, starting with the agonizing US imperialist economy. We are entering a period of huge turbulence, which will transpire into te need to find deep structural alternatives vis a vis a capitalist global systems that has failed to bring any enduring progress, any real equality across nations and classes, and a sustainable development model. We are in other words, entering a vast, prolongued and deep Revolutionary phase, that will dominate the political, economic, and social scenario over the next couple of decades. Within this historical frame, Socialism will not be just a desirable option, but an inescapable imperative. Try to place your future intellectual and political endeavors within this historical flow, and you will become part of the future, and not just a misplaced advocate for a dying past.
Ow - you are 100% correct. Surveys cannot be used to selct condidates within the Constitution.
In addition the opposition cmapaigns should not even be running until September. This is as usual flouting all the rules since, as usual, the opposition thinks that the rules, regulations and laws do not apply to them.
Wihtoput primaries they should all be excluded and in the event that primarioes are held, the candidates who have been campaigning for months agianst CNE regulations whould all be fined.
Hahahahahahahah
Talk about a dismal economy and the assholes running it to the ground!
One step steeper into the abyss. I wonder what is the Gusano Brigade going to do when the rotten apple shrivels to nothing. We don't want them back here, that's for sure!
-----------------------
Dismal Housing Data Hurt Markets
By Peter A. McKay
Word Count: 676 | Companies Featured in This Article: financial, consumer-discretionary, Pulte Homes, D.H. Horton, Toll Brothers, Bank of America, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, Amazon.com, Qualcomm, Nokia, Ford Motor
Disappointing housing data plunged stocks into the doldrums Thursday as investors' fears about both the mortgage crisis and economic weakness rekindled.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which enjoyed a 165-point rally over the previous two sessions, was recently down nearly 245 points, or 2.1%, at 11387.55.
The stock market opened lower and saw its losses widen after the National Association of Realtors reported a larger-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes in June. Sales were off 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million units. The decline was more than double the drop expected by Wall Street.
Moy, as is usual, I concur with your logic and your sentiments.
Charting an alternative to a capitalist system is precarious, but necessary, if we are going to continue as a species. But the goal is to thrive.
Breaking societies down to smaller, quasi-automonmous unites of fifty to one thousand people. The goal would be to live well, and work toward peace and sustainability. With off-the-grid technologies, and non-aliented labor, this could be a realistic mode of living over the long-term.
What is certain is that the massive herding operations that pass for 'democratic' capitalism just ain't working.
Food independence and social health should and could become priorities--if people become engaged and un-sheepelfied.
In all of this there is plenty of advanced theorizing and thinking toward a more healthy direction.
La lucha sigue y sigue, SR. Maybe in the future we shall meet in some trench out there. Adelante y hasta el final. Un abrazo.
OW,
Another general development plan that should give you some orientation about what Venezuela's strategy is:
www.mpd.gob.ve/Nuevo-plan/PROYECTO-NACIONAL-SIMON-
BOLIVAR.pdf
Whoops, here's the link:
http://http://www.mpd.gob.ve/Nue...MON-
BOLIVAR.pdf
Damn, still doesn't work.
Here it is again:
http://www.mpd.gob.ve/Nuevo-plan...MON-
BOLIVAR.pdf
Tosh,
After so many years they come up with a PDF they call "a plan"? It is nothing but a wish list.
Do you know the difference between a wish list and a plan? I have put more concrete stuff in my ideas in my blog in just some minutes now and then in my free time than they (a lot of people payed for that) in so many years.
Por favor!
Damn, I didn't even make it past the table of contents and I'm already cracking up...
Nueva Ética Socialista? Supreme Felicidad Social? Democracia Protagónica Revolucionaria?
Yeah, right...
Is this supposed to be the Gusano Last Stand in this blog? Santiaguito, you really are a fucking and useless retard. Keep on at it moron! We need more like you!
Hey Leper, whatch ya gonna do now, you freaking coward? Where are you gonna continue your pathetic whining now that this blog will close?
Where's the love, Moy?
La conciencia revolucionaria de la ética y la moral busca afianzar valores inalienables que deben estar presentes en nuestra vida cotidiana; el amor, pues como dijera Ernestor "Ché" Guevara "el revolucionario verdadero está guiado por grandes sentimientos de amor". Porque lo que tiene sentido es amar al prójimo, aun cuando este no nos ame a nosotros;
santiago gracia,
in the case of revolutionaries, love is not part of everyday feeling.With an ideology, love is in the ego.
It satisfies their ego to think of themselves as loving
but actual love comes from the heart and the gut and can never choose to base itself in the easy falseness and alienation of ideas
nothing is worse than an unloving person who considers himself more loving than thou,
and it is all in the head
OW,
Forgive me if you covered the International Crisis Group's report on Venezuela anywhere. If not, it merits a look. The recommendations are eminently reasonable in my opinion: Venezuela: Political Reform or Regime Demise?
La lucha sigue y sigue, SR. Maybe in the future we shall meet in some trench out there. Adelante y hasta el final. Un abrazo.
Moyhabin | 07.25.08 - 12:31 pm | #
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I hope a US bomber gets the coordinates of that trench so it can pepper you with a few rounds.
Nope, didn't cover that report. Read it and noted its very obvious and basic errors. In the past that is the type of thing I would do a post picking apart but not now.
Anyway, while some of the recommendations were good and reasonable the report itself was the usual junk coming from this kind of place.
courtesy of Colombia another example of why you don't let your currency get out of whack:
http://www.eltiempo.com/colombia...manga_4400543-
1
The Colombian Peso has gone way up relative to the dollar and Colombians are losing their jobs left and right (I've seen plenty of articles on other Colombian industries also getting wiped out). Uribe better do something about this or even rescueing hostages won't be enough to save his popularity.
And of course, Venezuela's currency is way more overvalued than Colombia's - which is probably why Venezuela never had much of the type of industry that Colombia is now losing to begin with.
If and when you might get around to it, I would like to know what you consider the "obvious errors" in the report. ICG has done some good work in the past (on other countries).
A couple really glaring ones where them saying that the non-oil economy grew only 2% in 2006 and contracted by 5% in 2007. That is completely wrong as the non oil sector boomed during that time.
Then, even more outrageously on page 9 they quote some supposedly average person who says that not long ago Venezuela produced all its own food and that only now under Chavez are they importing food!!!!!!!!!! Is this person like 120 years old and talking about 1912 or something!!!
Its really amazing how they get people who lack such basic knowledge about countries that incredibly bad errors like this go by undetected.
BTW, the use of the word "regime" in the title is certainly pejorative and shows their bias which may have something to do with the types of errors they made.
OW,
Have a good rest I thing your going to need it. Rest up , read up.
Graciela,
I really hope you stocks are doing well.
For poll lovers:
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/
y...06_2008_131.pdf
Lots of interesting data.
Venezuelans say they are much better off than they were even a year ago, Chavez is pretty popular, TV news is not trusted, Venezuelans don't care for the U.S. but do like Russia and China, the National Assembly is one of the most trusted institutions in the country, .....
Seems like Venezuelans have the world pretty well figured out
Ow, I have to say the pdf has very nice colours.
Haha...Venezuelans are more satisfied with how Chavez handles security in Venezuela than how Bachelet handles it and yet Chile as a whole is as safe as Montana or more and Venezuela is the most dangerous country in the world (with perhaps some exceptions like most of Iraq)
Ow, give me a break about Russia and China. Most Venezuelans, including Chavistas, feel much closer to the US than they would ever be to Russia or China in spite of the "yanki go home" for the cameras. Last time I was in Venezuela I was surprised about the amount of anti-Chinese remarks I overheard and it was not by the Ancien Regime, it was by the poor.
As for Russians: most Venezuelans have no clue or care about Russia. A couple went to Russia in the sixties to eighties to study (and I mean less than 1000), that is all.
A lot of Chavistas will even tell you they admire Iran, even those who call themselves "socialists".
Have you read Robert Fisk's latest book? Nice details about Iran and socialists...things I had also read about in my AI group.
Graciela (grac?) owns stocks? In the Dow Jones? Oh dear. Mis sinceras condolencias:
With 249 of the S&P 500 companies reporting results, second-quarter profits are on track to decline 17.9% vs. a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters.
"I'd rate (earnings so far) as pretty bad," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Equity Research. S&P forecast a 10% drop at the start of the quarter but now sees about a 20% shortfall, he said.
Financial firms' profits are forecast to dive 85%. The consumer discretionary sector, including automakers and home builders, also is a big loser.
Por si las moscas.... "dive" quiere decir "una clavá".
it is interesting to argue over these sorts of things (and, amazingly, I tend to agree with Kepler here, I suspect that Venezuelans prefer Americans and American culture to the Chinese and the Russians, regardless of the political disputes), but they are becoming increasingly of marginal importance
the neoliberal system is on the verge of financial collapse, and if Chavez is not careful, Venezuela is going to be swept along with it, as one of the consequences is going to be a substantial decline in the price of oil over the next few years, probably down to the $60 to $80 a barrel range
the collapse in housing values is about to spread to commodities, including oil, and just about all forms of assets, because a lot of global financial institutions, like banks, brokerage houses and hedge funds, used leverage to shocking degrees
we are entering a period of extreme debt and credit austerity, and to the extent that Chavez has allowed the Venezuelan economy to become dependent on high oil prices and liberal extensions of credit, there is going to be a rude awakening
this is the future that the Bolivarians need to recognize and prepare for, but are they?
On another topic, is it common for them to release the cockpit recordings of an air disaster to the public? Transcriben la conversación de la caja negra...
Interesting thoughts Richard. That could happen. I just read that Joseph Stiglitz thinks this is the worst financial crisis since t