OK Carlson, let the unabashed defending begin!!!
Simple, ow does not understand.
Ummm....
Antonio beat me to it.
grac,
it's not just that he doesn't understand. but that he's arrogant as well.
also he's a social democrat, the equivalent of satan.
he probably hates black people, too.
4.5% is an acceptable rate of growth for a quarter given the extreme explosions of growth over the past few years.
This amount of growth has caused a high level of inflation, which you are right to identify as acceptable if the growth is necessary, but the government is not adopting a zero-inflation policy. They just might want to slow things down and if that's the case, the reductions in inflation won't happen right away.
The high world prices of food have indeed affected the economy, since the government has been forced to rely on costly imports to scramble to fix the problem of inflation.
It's hard to tell at the moment if the slowdown in growth is 1) bad or 2) the result in economic poor economic policy.
We have to keep in mind that our economic officials in the U.S. also tend not to give a hard economic analysis when talking to the press. The goals are different when talking to Ultimas Noticias than when talking to someone like ow or me, who likely know a bit more about economics than the readers of UT.
Vincent vencentral.com
ouch
4.5% is an acceptable rate of growth for a quarter given the extreme explosions of growth over the past few years.
Its NOT for a quarter, but annualised. When will you guys stop believing blindly what the gov propaganda says...?
And yes, if you ask me, this one confirms yet again that people in charge are indeed in the majority just clowns...
Sounds like you are advocating the neoliberal economic policies of the second CAP administration which resulted in the world's highest economic growth rate but with significant inflation. After rioting, two military coups and presidential impeachment using the flimsiest of charges, the Venezuelans recognized that neoliberalism, as effective as it is at expanding wealth, would be political suicide in Venezuela.
uh oh, the worst slander of the revolution has come out. now I am being called "neo-liberal" because I advocate trying to be competant, having more investment, and building up industry.
Funny thing is there is nothing neo-liberal about those proposals - the high tarrifs, undervalued currency, and heavy state investment in industry go completelly against the "neo-liberal" orthodoxy.
Now, the Chavez government does indeed remind me of another government - CAP I. And it isn't a favorable comparison.
Vincent the government has to start educating people about economics and about the consequences of different decisions. If it makes no attempt to educate them and makes things worse by giving false explanations then it can't blame people for not understanding these concepts.
For example, in speaking to many people they've all seemed dead set against raising the price of gasoline even though that subsidy costs Venezuela many billions of dollars per year in lost revenue. The problem is they don't understand the notion of opportunity cost. Its not complicated and if the government would keep explaining it for a period of time people would understand it and could then make more informed decisions.
The government should try to elevate peoples level of understanding and not make things worse by giving people false explanations.
It's not my area of expertise (so please don't shoot me down in flames), but isn't part of the reason for the huge economic growth of recent times the consequence of starting from a low base in 2003?
Coupled with the high price of imports (particularly food), wouldn't you expect to see a slowdown in growth as the economy stabilised?
I'd be interested in finding out what is the historic pattern of growth in similar natural resouce rich economies?
There can be reasons to slow down an economy some times and Venezuela slowing to 4.8% growth isn't fatal.
From my point of view what is most worrisome is manufacturing has always been lagging way behind other growth and continues to do so because its growth dropped to an abysmal 1.3%.
Growth in manufacturing should consistantly be 8% at least if they plan on building up their economy and breaking their dependence on oil.
Furhter that number results from the worrisome trends we've seen - a screwed up exchange rate that undermines local industry, booming imports, and not enough investment. Sadly, the 1.3% was predictable and now it is here.
But... but... but... you've been saying, for years, that the economy was in terrific shape, Dan. How come, all of a sudden, chavismo doesn't know what to do with the economy?
Mario:
The economy is in fine shape CURRENTLY. Yes, for years I've been combatting the opposition propoganda that the economy is imploding, that things were getting worse, that the depression of 02-03 was created by Chavez and not them, etc.
The sky is not falling and for right now the economy is moving ahead thanks to both good oil policies and some good luck.
However, I have also always said that the country has to industrialize if it is to ever truly give its citizens the lives they deserve and reduce its dependance on oil.
I thought that the government would start doing that in 2007. Up until 2006 I knew they weren't investing enough but I assumed that they were doing that for political reasons - ie the need to win big elections including the presidential election. Having won that election I thought the time was perfect to switch gears, cut back in consumption and start making more investments.
To my great dismay they haven't done that. They seem to have continued down the path of just spending and not investing which now convinces me they don't have any plan to develop the country. They seem to more interested in winning elections each year than actually governning for the long term good of the country.
So yes, I misjudged them on that. It is a very bitter disappointment for me to see them frittering away a great opportunity that isn't likely to come back for a long long time.
OW you have one foot in the opposition camp why dont you clear off and join them you traitor
All this noise about the economy is fruitless. Let's face it there has been a slowdown but 4.8% growth is fine.
It's not surprising when you consider the consumer boom in both malls and car sales, for example, as well as the huge increase in food consumption.
My take is that most Venezuelans have spent what they intend to and are now buying less since they have more financial committments and with rampant price speculation taking place, people are obviously going to buy less than before.
In addition, the government has reduced lquidity in th economy as a whole so it is impossible for growth to continue at 8%+.
OW - of course the government is investing. In people, Social prgrams account for a large slice of the national budget.
The size of the ecopnomy has more than doubled in recent years. But for the opposition and orthodox economists, this is not good enough and is just swept under the carpet.
- You, fool!
- You, stupid!
- "You fucking bastard"
- You, neo-liberal"
- Neoliberal your mother
- Yours!
- Not, yours!
- Yours is neoliberal and all your family and you!
- And yours ten times more neoliberal
- After yours has become 20 times more neoliberal still
- Oooooohargh, you neoliberal ad infinitum woooa!
And so on. And these are the representatives of the left? I see grim times for their lot.
As for the 2% growth: indeed, the "minister" has not the slightest idea. I wonder if he ever opened a book about economics (I am sure he never read one, but I just wondered if he ever opened one).
Pobre república babanera!
From my point of view what is most worrisome is manufacturing has always been lagging way behind other growth and continues to do so because its growth dropped to an abysmal 1.3%.
This is mostly because the government has been focusing on agriculture right now, not manufacturing.
And they have very good reason to do so. Anyone who understands anything about import substitution knows that you have to build up a domestic market to consume your production before you can do anything.
What is the best way to build up a domestic market? Well, since a big part of the population (and certainly many of the poorest) work in agriculture, or live in rural zones, if you redistribute the land equitably and raise agricultural production then you are creating wealth for a significant portion of the population (and the ones who need it the most).
This automatically creates a stronger domestic market which can then consume the manufactured goods that you begin to produce.
Another way to build up a stronger domestic market is to integrate with other Latin American countries. Venezuela is doing both of these. They are way ahead of OW and his bogus economic theories.
The problem with OW's theory is that he thinks you should begin with manufacturing, without having a market to sell it to. So, you will be trying to produce all these manufactured goods, but won't have anyone to consume them.
Neither the United States or Europe would permit these subsidized manufactured goods to enter their markets. These kinds of goods are illegal according to the WTO, and the US and Europe fought very hard to make sure developing countries in the WTO could not use these tactics.
So where are you going to sell them? To China? Is China likely to allow free entry to goods that compete with their nascent industries? Probably not. And, besides, would China's market, which is already saturated with production from China's and others' industries, be capable of absorbing enough production to allow for Venezuela's development?
As much as people like Sire and OW like to make the Venezuelan government look like clowns, those clowns certainly are way ahead of you guys.
Not to mention that apparently neither of you are aware of the fundamental contradictions of capitalism that make your capitalist strategy condemned to repeat the same fundamental problems that the world is currently dealing with. Venezuelan economists are so far ahead of you guys in so many ways that its quite entertaining to hear you give them advice.
Anonymous, how many acres of land does the Chavez family own?
thanks again anon for taking the time to rebutt the narrow arguements of ow, et al. ow is completely right from a normal western perspective regarding economics and material standard of living.
gladly that is not the direction of venezuela's government.
Anonymous, how many acres of land does the Chavez family own?
Kepler | 06.10.08 - 12:24 pm | #
Please provide evidence of your accusations. Otherwise they are simply more of the nonsense propaganda that the Venezuelan opposition is so famous for.
Chris, if you can't see the signs in Barinas that show an increasing wealth among the Chavez family, you are simply naive. ...or worse, your capacity to reason has been impaired.
Chris, if you can't see the signs in Barinas that show an increasing wealth among the Chavez family, you are simply naive. ...or worse, your capacity to reason has been impaired.
jsb | 06.10.08 - 1:41 pm | #
Neither I, nor most of the people here, are in Barinas. So we aren't able to see the signs.
But if indeed there are signs, then that would be evidence wouldn't it? Therefore, if your accusations are true, you should be able to prove them. I'll be waiting to see the evidence.
(but I won't hold my breath)
"Well, since a big part of the population (and certainly many of the poorest) work in agriculture, or live in rural zones, if you redistribute the land equitably and raise agricultural production then you are creating wealth for a significant portion of the population (and the ones who need it the most)."
Ok, even if this is true where is the increased agricultural output? Agriculture isn't seperately reported on by the BCV.
Everything I have seen is a mixed bag - some things up, some things down. For example, Ultimas Noticias had an article showing beef production is down about 10%.
Do you have a source of comprehensive statistics for this?
Ok, even if this is true where is the increased agricultural output?
As far as I know the only numbers available are numbers from the MAT, and they show production to have significantly increased in recent years. Certain products have decreased, and others have increased, but overall production has definitely increased, especially since 1998.
But, I think there have been some serious problems carrying out land reform, and building the kind of infrastrucure (roads, irrigation, storage capacity, processing plants) that are needed.
I haven't seen any statistics for 2007 yet, but MAT said production increased significantly.
I had looked on their site before but didn't see any stats - though they did have a denial that beef production was down, probably in response to the U.N. article.
For example, Ultimas Noticias had an article showing beef production is down about 10%.
Minister of Agriculture says this is a lie. He gives statistics on beef production here:
http://www.mat.gob.ve/publiarchi...o/
boletin41.pdf
"What is the best way to build up a domestic market? Well, since a big part of the population (and certainly many of the poorest) work in agriculture, or live in rural zones, if you redistribute the land equitably and raise agricultural production then you are creating wealth for a significant portion of the population (and the ones who need it the most).
This automatically creates a stronger domestic market which can then consume the manufactured goods that you begin to produce." Said Anon
Anon, in a previous thread you wrote about land reform:"So Venezuela doesn't have the access to markets that Asian countries had. Also, Venezuela is still in the process of carrying out land reform, something that was carried out in SK by the US military in the 1950's. Venezuela first has to become independent in their food source, then they can worry about industry. For these reasons, and many more, Venezuela has a lot longer road than South Korea did.
Once again, you'll never understand anything in Venezuela as long as you keep trying to look at it through this filter of what South Korea did."
Anonymous | 06.08.08 - 5:16 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
Why is land reform moving so slowly? Is it essential to "food independence?" Is there a plan to get it into gear?
Why is land reform moving so slowly? Is it essential to "food independence?" Is there a plan to get it into gear?
Eugene | Homepage | 06.10.08 - 3:17 pm | #
I don't know whether its moving slowly or not. Venezuela has always had a lot of unproductive land, and its a matter of the state giving incentives and support to farmers so that they can start to produce it.
This means they have to train farmers to produce the right crops in the right zones. They need to supply them withe infrastructure they need, such as roads, irrigation canals, agroindustry, farming machinery, storage silos, etc.
Then the government has to decide what the best way to support them is. Should they give them subsidies and credits. How? Should they be organized in cooperatives, or on individual farms, or on state-owned farms, etc.
From what I can tell, they are doing all of this, and agricultural production has increased substantially. Can they do more, or could they do it better? I don't know enough to say.
ow-
I agree with your responses to my comment. The Venezuelan government, like the U.S. government, should be a little more open about its economic policies and how economics works.
I also agree that the basically free gas in Venezuela amounts to a massive cash transfer from all Venezuelans to the ones who drive or use the most energy.
But I'll still stand by the claims that 4.5% is not a disaster and there's nothing really about that interview to lead me to believe he doesn't know what he is talking about. However there is nothing to lead me in the other direction, either.
Vincent
vencentral.com
The bottom line is that the Dutch Disease will be basically inescapable as long as market mechanisms allocate the resources for production in Venezuela.
"its a matter of the state(Government) giving incentives and support to farmers so that they can start to produce it."
"they (Government) have to train farmers to produce the right crops in the right zones. "
"They (Government, I agree with part of this) need to supply them with infrastructure"
"Then the (government) has to decide what the best way to support"
Government, government, government...Why do you think it's always up to the Government to make all the decisions and decide exactly how everything is to be done and not just set up opportunities and allow "individuals" to make some choices to decide what they will do with those opportunities?
Do you really think that it's the Government's responsibility to micromanage every aspect of these people's lives? What kind of efficiency do you expect from a Government that already has it's plate full running a country, but now they have to decide who, what, when, where, why and how everything happens.
There is no way you can believe that a system set up in such a manner can be efficient or effective.
Less Government, more personal responsibility and decisions.
"Please provide evidence of your accusations. Otherwise they are simply more of the nonsense propaganda that the Venezuelan opposition is so famous for."
Anonymous | 06.10.08 - 12:38 pm |
Chris Carlson,
Why do you play dumb about the Chávez clan in Barinas? Is that part of your job description?
http://www.aporrea.org/medios/a5...ios/
a53891.html
http://www.aporrea.org/actualida...ad/
n113278.html
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/p...elpepspor_6/
Tes
http://www.talcualdigital.com/Es...er.aspx?
id=8059
http://www.talcualdigital.com/Av...er.aspx?
id=7008
http://64.21.147.60/~aporrea/
for...1aaea99842c0de0
Chris Carlson,
Is this supposed to scare me? I think you might scare me more if you actually tried to make an intelligent contribution. But, thankfully, I know that will never happen.
Why do you play dumb about the Chávez clan in Barinas? Is that part of your job description?
I said I wanted to see evidence, not hearsay. I know that there are a lot of accusations of his brothers in corruption. I didn't ask to see the accusations. I asked to see the evidence.
What you sent me are simply more accusations, without evidence.
Y según la oposición, lo que se ve es evidente.
Las acusaciones son de Antonio Bastidas, ex diputado opositor.
Tres oficiales del ejército y cuatro civiles están acusados de malversación de fondos y estafa, valorados en más de un millón de euros.
Todo el mundo sabe que quien mueve los hilos del Gobierno es Argenis
Are these evidence? No. They are accusations and hearsay.
And, by the way, I never denied that there was corruption among Chavez' family. I just asked to see evidence of it. You provided none.
Either way, it is completely irrelevant to what we are discussing, which is the economic policies of the government.
GP,
Did you even read the articles you sent? They certainly aren't conclusive, and the actually bring up doubts about those who have made the accusations:
El Diputado Azuaje decidió hacerse propaganda y ganar espacio en los medios de comunicación de la oposición para lanzar su candidatura denunciando supuestas irregularidades donde supuestamente estarían implicados miembros de la familia Chávez.
Just for fun (and I hope someone at elchiguirebipolar reads this), imagine this:
The UN listens to one of Chavez's impassioned speeches about the evils of capitalism and the wonders of socialism, and in an unprecedented moment of intellectual clarity, they decide to socialize oil worldwide.
What does that mean? It means that from that moment, all oil worldwide will belong to everyone regardless of their country of origin. All companies currently producing oil, regardless of their being state-owned or private, will be acquired by the UN in the next ten years. For the moment, it is illegal for anyone to sell oil for more than $12 a barrel. And they should all at least triple their production in the next five years. Failure to do either will mean that a UN commission will immediately take over the company.
The kick is, what do you think Chavez's reaction would be? He'll claim that oil in Venezuela belongs only to the venezuelans. If people in Jamaica have no oil, it's clearly their fault. Who told them to be born in a country without oil? And of course it's utterly ridiculous that some external organization filled with people who couldn't tell oil from horse manure if their lives depended on it will be deciding the price of oil. Didn't they go to school? The market is the only one who can decide the price of a product!! And taking over our processing plants just because they say so, just because it would greatly benefit the poor worldwide? How ridiculous can you get? Those are OUR processing plants and OUR oil wells. We built them, not them. They have no right to just take them simply because they want to. Who died and made them god?
I've always loved it when I see chaburros failing to realize that Chavez and his OPEP buddies are by far the biggest, most capitalistic oligarchs the world has ever seen.
Government, government, government...Why do you think it's always up to the Government to make all the decisions and decide exactly how everything is to be done and not just set up opportunities and allow "individuals" to make some choices to decide what they will do with those opportunities?
The United States government does all of the things above and more for their farmers. Would you say that their system is not efficient or effective?
The kick is, what do you think Chavez's reaction would be?
I'm sure he'd agree, as long as they socialize all the rest of the world's wealth along with the oil.
Socializing the oil, but nothing else, wouldn't be fair to Venezuela, because their wealth lies in oil. How about the United States socializes their industrial production?
I've always loved it when I see chaburros failing to realize that Chavez and his OPEP buddies are by far the biggest, most capitalistic oligarchs the world has ever seen.
The Insane Guy Over There | 06.10.08 - 6:05 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
You are dead on, dude. Shit for brains' response is a classic. What an idiot.
Why do you play dumb about the Chávez clan in Barinas? Is that part of your job description?
I said I wanted to see evidence, not hearsay. I know that there are a lot of accusations of his brothers in corruption. I didn't ask to see the accusations. I asked to see the evidence.
What you sent me are simply more accusations, without evidence.
If you put the same faith in this than the one you put in every little rumor against the US, you would be a believer. You just CHOOSE not to believe so you can keep living you dream.
You are young and stupid, what a terrible combination.
"Is this supposed to scare me?"
Anonymous | 06.10.08 - 5:56 pm
No, I just think it's hilarious that you try to pretend you're not Chris Carlson when your prose style (arrogant & combative with a dash of delusional hallucination) is so easy to notice.
Did you even read the articles you sent? They certainly aren't conclusive, and the actually bring up doubts about those who have made the accusations..."
Anonymous | 06.10.08 - 6:05 pm
Maybe it's Wilmer Azuaje who scares you?
"Is this supposed to scare me?"
Anonymous | 06.10.08 - 5:56 pm
This is really odd. Why would mentioning your name have anything to do with fear? I mean, as a U.S. citizen you're not scared of working for the Venezuelan government, are you? I assume you've weighed all the consequences of your employment. I'm assuming the likes of you, Chesa Boudin, or Eva Golinger have thought about the contradictions of being U.S. citizens who work for the Venezuelan government as propagandists. So, why would you associate your name being mentioned on a blog with fear?
"Then the government has to decide what the best way to support them is. Should they give them subsidies and credits. How? Should they be organized in cooperatives, or on individual farms, or on state-owned farms, etc.
From what I can tell, they are doing all of this, and agricultural production has increased substantially."
Anon, I guess that after ten years some of these questions and problems and what if's would have been resolved in a fast moving or revolutionary process. Jeezis the US Army did it in South Korea in how much time? There was a report back in 2005 of moving "full speed ahead." If the government is concentrating on food independence and agrarian reform is important for achieving it why are there still these big plots of unused land and landless people with no jobs, and massive food imports?
Anon, I guess that after ten years some of these questions and problems and what if's would have been resolved in a fast moving or revolutionary process. Jeezis the US Army did it in South Korea in how much time?
Sure, its a lot easier to just do it by force, and throw the rich off the land at gunpoint. Its also a lot easier to carry out a development plan if you don't have to worry about elections, opposition parties, public criticism, etc.
I'm not saying these things aren't resolved. From what I can tell they have already established what kinds of policies they are using, and how they are going about it. But I would imagine its going to be something that's going to take a long time to carry out. Especially since they are doing it in a democratic, non-violent manner.
"But I would imagine its going to be something that's going to take a long time to carry out. Especially since they are doing it in a democratic, non-violent manner."
Anonymous | 06.10.08 - 11:18 pm
Of course, the boliburgesía won't have to worry about losing any of their lands, businesses, homes (in Venezuela & abroad) or assets, will they? The Chávez clan won't have to hand over any of their estates or assets to the government. After all, as the Cuban model teaches, the revolution will always allow its own elites to prosper.
"Sure, its a lot easier to just do it by force, and throw the rich off the land at gunpoint. Its also a lot easier to carry out a development plan if you don't have to worry about elections, opposition parties, public criticism, etc." Says anon about agrarian reform.
Anon, the right, the oligarchs, the new rich, the media, the US financed groups will all yell and scream at every step, big or little, that cuts down their power and advances the interests of the poor. As far as "gunpoint" goes isn't it the oligarchs who point guns at land reform activists and peasants?
http://mutualist.blogspot.com/20...ainst-
land.html
So whatchoo spending your CIA checks on these days, Dan? Me, I'm going for high purity cocaine. (Getting paid in kind, in other words...)
Yeah, El Troudi's answers are amazingly assinine, but it's true that there's nothing particularly alarming about a 4.8% quarterly growth rate. Okay, so there are diminishing returns to oil dependence, and Venezuela certainly hasn't discovered the path to sustain Chinese-style growth figures, but nobody has bothered to explain what the bar for success or failure is. I'm simply unsure as to what yardstick we're supposed to measure the quarterly growth rate against.
[quote]
Sure, its a lot easier to just do it by force, and throw the rich off the land at gunpoint. Its also a lot easier to carry out a development plan if you don't have to worry about elections, opposition parties, public criticism, etc.
[/quote]
You are seriously saying, the cambodian, cuban, pre-1985 vietnamese, GDR, hungarian, polish, czech, yugoslawian, pre-1976-chinese way of agricultural "reform" were more efficient?
Justin, no 4.8% growth in itself is not all that worrisome.
But the following are:
1) manufacturing grew a dismal 1.3%. Growth there is what will allow Venezuela to get off its dependence from oil and we aren't seeing it.
2) Venezuela has followed a number of policies that hurt manufacturing and make that 1.3% number all too predictable, cheif among them a totally screwed up exchange rate.
3) Much/most of the tens of billions that is coming in from the oil boom is being wasted on unnecessary consumption by the upper classes. This money could be used for much better things such as industrialization/paying down debt/or simply saving for a rainy day
4) Some say they are focusing on agriculture first - yet the government doesn't publish statistics that would allow us to evaluate whether that sector is doing any better than manufacturing.
5) As we see from the interview in this post the government doesn't do anything to improve peoples understanding these important economic issues and allow them to make informed decisions.
Add all that up and we have a recipe for disaster that will wipe this government out and put the country right back to where it was in the 90s.
I'd like to know where El Universal got these stats from so I could see them myself but if this is true right here is a really big problem:
"Las estadísticas registran que en el primer trimestre de 2005 la inversión, es decir, recursos destinados a adquirir equipos, maquinarias y todo aquello que permite aumentar la producción, aumentó 47,4%, en el mismo lapso de 2006, 19,7%; en el de 2007, 33,9% y en el de este año sufrió un descenso de 1,8%."
Investment shouldn't be declining. But apparently it is. And unfortunately that is predictable given that cheap imports are having a big impact on domestic production.
Uh... time to use a famous quote:
"Its the Economy, Stupid!!"
The cause of all the problems is called: Centralization.
Too much micromanagement leads to more corruption and inefficiency.
Kinda sad to have 4.8% growth when the barrel of oil is at $145 and 90% of our exports is oil.
Tank - no Tank the problem is greed and speculation by the private sector pumping up prices.
Centralization has nothing to do with this.
You guys change like the wind. First you said that the economic boom was due to too much public spening which was BAD. The when the government reels in speninding and cuts liquidity this is also BAD.
Fact is that whatever the government does it is BAD for you opposition hypocrites.
Oil is not US$145 and never had been.
To my great dismay they haven't done that. They seem to have continued down the path of just spending and not investing which now convinces me they don't have any plan to develop the country. They seem to more interested in winning elections each year than actually governning for the long term good of the country.
So yes, I misjudged them on that. It is a very bitter disappointment for me to see them frittering away a great opportunity that isn't likely to come back for a long long time.
ow | Homepage | 06.10.08 - 10:58 am | #
Dan, I think you're still a fool for falling for the chavismo propaganda in the first place, and for writing on this blog that Venezuela was on the right path of development, but having also seen the replies from the likes of Carlson, I must say there is still some hope for you.
Looks like your current stay in Barquisimeto has given you a new perspective about the state of my country. It must be bitter to know first hand that all those pretty statistics you've been feeding yourself with mean nothing when the main national commodity is at record prices, and still poor kids walk to your car to beg for money, ON EVERY SINGLE FUCKING RED LIGHT.
The latest years of the 4th republic were damaging to Venezuela, but these clowns you've supporting since 1999 are far worse.
Since you are on the 'Anonymous Leftists' 5-step program, I suggest you go on to step two: 'Withdraw support to terrorists organizations, regardless of ideology'. Trust me, you'll feel better.
" Tank - no Tank the problem is greed and speculation by the private sector pumping up prices. "
Yes considering how much of the GDP comes from the "private sector".
Centralization is a big problem. But just look at history... Im not going to explain it to you.
"You guys change like the wind. First you said that the economic boom was due to too much public spening which was BAD. The when the government reels in speninding and cuts liquidity this is also BAD."
Funny.. considering this is like the first time I post here. Talk about generalizing.
"Oil is not US$145 and never had been."
Oh... I forget its at $140? Make it $130.. heck make it $80.
In 1998 it was around $16.72.
In the 10 years Chavez has been in power, Oil increased by over $100.
Tank - your original post was factually inaccurate. Oil has never been to US$140.....yet.
Tank I said "you guys" not you personally. In other words the opposition guys.
Read what is written not what you imagine is written.
Mario terán - you are full of it. Things are much, much better than is 19987/98 for the vast majority of us Venezuelans - both in economic, educational and health terms.
The system you want to return to was the one which created all the social problems in the past 300 years or so. Get a life!!This change has only had 10 years. It's nothing. And you people have yet to present a national plan. Where is it?
Things are much, much better than is 19987/98 for the vast majority of us Venezuelans - both in economic, educational and health terms.
Now you're just trying to make it into the chiguirebipolar staff. Stop it, please.
By the way, you were given a cédula just to vote for Chavez, so you're as venezuelan as Mickey Mouse.
Anonymous or whoever you are...
The results of the economic policies of the current administration speak for themselves. There is no need for an in-deep analysis to conclude that they dropped the ball and that they are completly incompetent.
In the same 10 years look at what Colombia and Chile did (from an economic point of view).
Happyness, Education and everything else that you have brought up have nothing to do with this discussion and will not change the fact that with the barrel of oil at RECORD prices, our goverment has been unable to properly diversify and develop our economy.
Wow OW, now you're even getting praise from the clueless liberals at caracaschronicles.blogspot.com for taking positions closer to theirs.
That's certainly not a group I'd want to be close to.
"Wow OW, now you're even getting praise from the clueless liberals at caracaschronicles.blogspot.com for taking positions closer to theirs."
Oh, that is what that was, praise?
Anyways, just because they have nothing to offer in terms of solutions doesn't mean that some of their critiques can't be correct. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see most of this stuff.
"Dan, I think you're still a fool for falling for the chavismo propaganda in the first place, and for writing on this blog that Venezuela was on the right path of development, but having also seen the replies from the likes of Carlson, I must say there is still some hope for you. "
What Chavista propoganda? Chavez has done any number of good things - taking control of PDVSA, revitalizing OPEC, spending more on pressing social needs. No one has any need to apoligize for those accomplishments.
Nor am I ever going to apoligize for being critical of an opposition which is equally bereft of ideas on how to develop the country and has an insatiable lust to get back into power for what ... not to develop the country because they have no plans for that so I can only assume their real gripe is that THEY can't get their hands on all the oil revenue.
Now, yes, it was very naive of me to HOPE that Chavez had a plan to develop the country in spite of the very obvious fact that he has never made one public. In hind site it is obvious - he never publicized one because he has never had one and still doesn't have one.
So yeah, that was a big error and misjudgement on my part. One that I won't repeat in the future. Meaning I am not supporting anyone until I see a very clear and detailed program on exactly how they plan to take the country foward.
Now, I don't count for shit. But I sincerely do hope that Venezuelans thesmselves get a little more demanding and ask to see such things before they all get on someones bandwagon next time.
Sadly, I don't think anyone should hold their breath waiting for that to happen.
BTW, what I as saying in sort of a round a bout way up above is I think Venezuela is caught now between a well intentioned but infantile leftism which actually takes pride in not knowing anything about economics (and is afflicted with a nasty cult of personality too) and an old reactionary elite who are still only interested in themselves.
Being caught between those two forces leaves most Venezuelans in a bad spot with no obvious way out.
This is subject for a future post but I can only think of two things your average Venezuelan can do to try to break out of this:
a) insist that their political parties have complete internal democracy and refuse to join or support any party which isn't.
and
b) insist that the parties be program based, as opposed to personality based, with very explicit programs on how they believe the country should be governed and refuse to join or support any party that isn't that way.
Currently, there isn't any political party in Venezuela that comes close to meating those criteria. I dont' believe Venezuela is going to get anywhere until it starts coming up with political parties that do rather than having political parties that exist solely to stoke some meglomaniacs ego.
Oh, that is what that was, praise?
Maybe praise isn't the word. But they certainly seemed to conclude that you are starting to "see the light".
Doesn't matter to me one way or the other.
Despite all the comical theories that go around the internet most blogs are just personal writings that signify nothing more than the personal oppinion of the person writing. That is the case with this one and I write what I think without worrying about who will agree or disagree.
Anyways, just because they have nothing to offer in terms of solutions doesn't mean that some of their critiques can't be correct. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see most of this stuff.
ow | Homepage | 06.11.08 - 2:35 pm | #
These guys are far from rocket scientists. These are the same guys who still claim that there is no "freedom of expression" in Venezuela. The same people who still believe that Chavez was responsible for the events of April 11th, and that is wasn't a coup, but rather a "power vacuum." These are the same people who still believe that Chavez robs elections.
Hell, they even still believe in "free trade" and "small government."
Burnett, let's just say, for argument's sake, that yes, Chavez has done 'a number of good things'.
Are you willing to balance those 'good things' against the 'number of bad things' chavismo (i.e. Chavez) has done? If so, how do you see the outcome? Are those 'number of good things' actually improving the lives of the Alexis and Yumairas?
My point is, Dan, that the stupid oppositions HAS NOT BEEN RUNNING VENEZUELA for the last decade. Chavez has. So, are you gonna stop bitching about the opposition's lack of ideas and start bitching about how Chavez has squarely screwed up RUNNING -and ruining- the country?
I mean, you're there, man. You can see it with your own eyes. There is no Aporrea, Minci or Alo Presidente filter. You can actually touch Chavismo's results. Ask your in-laws how they're managing to stretch their paychecks, why they feel absolutely terrified about going out at night for a perro caliente, if they manage to go to a SINGLE grocery store to get everything they want, how they feel about losing 2% of their money every month.
Ask them why the man running the country talks like if he had won the latest referendum, and completely disregards the popular vote.
He hasnt only been managing the country for 10 years.
He also has 95% of the governaciones and alcaldias, a fully supportive AN, Congress, Armed forces, etc.. .Yes there was a coup (6 years ago) and a few other events... but there is always "something".
Ask your in-laws how they're managing to stretch their paychecks, why they feel absolutely terrified about going out at night for a perro caliente, if they manage to go to a SINGLE grocery store to get everything they want, how they feel about losing 2% of their money every month.
Hahaha! Talk about middle-class gripes!
How about you go into the poorest sectors on any city in Venezuela and you ask those people if their lives haven't improved significantly under Chavez?
I have done it, many times, and I think you all know what the answer is.
Yes, Chris. People in the barrios feel the safest in these revolutionary times. Thanks to them, polls show Venezuela is the heappiest place on earth -after Cuba.
I was talking about 'middle-class issues' because I was talking to Dan about his in-laws. Can't you read?
"Ask your in-laws how they're managing to stretch their paychecks,"
My in-laws were barely scraping by in 1997. La suegra was in the hospital with cancer, which was very expensive. El suegro had just lost his job because his company was privatized, and they cheated him on his retirement plan. He started driving his car around town as a make-shift taxi, and the family could only eat meat once a week. Their daughter had to drop out of the university because they could no longer afford it.
Now, 11 years later, the two parents both get pensiones from the state for 800 BsF. per month, their son is making good money working at a state university, and the daughter works for CADIVI, after finishing her degree. Even the mom gets a pension, although she never worked a day in her life.
They have bought two new cars, (one through VenezuelaMovil) put air conditioning in their house, a new computer, and are now planning on making an addition to their house.
El suegro has a problem with his vision, so he is going to get operated on through Mision Milagro.
So, you tell me, were they better off in 1997, or are they better off now?
If you believe sucking on the state's titties and driving new cars that run on free-fuel is good, then your relatives are fucking great.
Now, since -in the real world- the state cannot possibly afford to give every cuñado or suegra a job, is it wise to squeeze the private sector (like your idol has done), by far the most job-creating one?
That's a cop out Mario. You said things had gotten so much worse, and that we could see it with our own eyes.
I'm telling you, that's not the case 100 percent of the time, or probably even 50 percent of the time.
Regardless of whether or not you agree with Chavez' policies, or whether or not you think they are sustainable, that's another issue. What you were arguing is that things are worse now. That doesn't seem to be the case for this guy's suegros, or for the millions of people in the barrios who keep supporting this government.
" If you believe sucking on the state's titties and driving new cars that run on free-fuel is good, then your relatives are fucking great."
So let me get this straight. You don't think old people should get retirement pensions? You think the state should privatize its education and healthcare sectors? And anyone who works for the government is automatically "sucking on the state's titties?"
I think you guys are wasting your time with particular examples. You will always find an example of a family that is better of and another that is worse off.
You know what does not lie?
Economic Indicators and statistics.
I can guarantee you people in the Barrios are feeling the impact of the highest inflation rate in America combined with the unemployment rate (even tough the Venezuelan goverment skews it by including informal workers).
The point is, the goverment has done some good things. But the economy is what determines the well beign and the future of the country and if things continue going the way they are the country will go nowhere.
The fact that "Epales" parents have managed to do better in the last 10 years doesnt mean the economy is better. Its also pretty sad to have a whole family depend on the goverment...
Too much centralization.. too little control, too much corruption... too much incompetence.
"Mario terán - you are full of it. Things are much, much better than is 19987/98 for the vast majority of us Venezuelans - both in economic, educational and health terms."
Anonymous | 06.11.08 - 12:11 pm
Us Venezuelans? Have you become a Venezuelan citizen recently?
Vast majority? When you run in the elite lower circles of the revolution, you cease to belong to the majority.
"Meaning I am not supporting anyone until I see a very clear and detailed program on exactly how they plan to take the country foward."
The majority of Venezuelans feel this way.
"Now, I don't count for shit. But I sincerely do hope that Venezuelans thesmselves get a little more demanding and ask to see such things before they all get on someones bandwagon next time.
Sadly, I don't think anyone should hold their breath waiting for that to happen."
ow | Homepage | 06.11.08 - 2:43 pm
Venezuelans haven't even hit bottom yet. Things will have to get much, much worse before Venezuelans wake up. It'll make Central America in the 80s seem quaint.
"The fact that "Epales" parents have managed to do better in the last 10 years doesnt mean the economy is better. Its also pretty sad to have a whole family depend on the goverment..."
Ha, this is a stupid criticism. My parents in the United States both depend on the government as well. Mom is a teacher, dad is a judge. So I suppose you'd say that's a sad situation too?
"So I suppose you'd say that's a sad situation too?"
Epale | 06.11.08 - 9:03 pm
Yeah, I'd say the US is in a pretty sad situation these days: endless war in Iraq, mindless presidential candidates, rising cost of living and an educational crisis that keeps the majority of citizens misinformed & self-centered. As far as I know, Judges in the U.S. are doing quite well, though.
"Ha, this is a stupid criticism. My parents in the United States both depend on the government as well. Mom is a teacher, dad is a judge. So I suppose you'd say that's a sad situation too?"
Its normal for the state to be the biggest employer in the economy. However, in the US there are many other big players.
A qualified professional will have a much easier time looking for a job. Also lets consider low inflation rates, a developed economy and lwoer unemployment. Also the US goverment is a Federal goverment where every state its pretty much its own entity.. unlike in Venezuela where everything needs to go trough Caracas.
But this discussion isnt about the US, is it? Im not from there... why do most pro-Chavez bloggers end up being American leftists?
Ha, this is a stupid criticism. My parents in the United States both depend on the government as well. Mom is a teacher, dad is a judge. So I suppose you'd say that's a sad situation too?
Epale | 06.11.08 - 9:03 pm | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
So let me tell you Epale, you are surrounded by losers.
"why do most pro-Chavez bloggers end up being American leftists?"
Tank | 06.11.08 - 10:23 pm |
Three reasons:
(1) No one gives a fuck what they say in the US because they're mediocre writers w/ no relevance beyond their circle of friends & family. (Who in the US actually reads Eva Golinger?)
(2) Venezuela is an exotic adventure that gives meaning to their small lives.
(2) They're employed by the Venezuelan government to promote Chavismo abroad (Cf. Eva Golinger, Eric Wingerter, Chesa Boudin, Chris Carlson – Who in the US even knows who these kids are?).
I've got a question:
Why do all the anti-Chavez guys have such an infatuation for these pro-Chavez activists?
They hate them so much, yet they keep coming back here to sling more and more insults at them.
Obsessed much? Or are you just so frustrated that you can't resist?
Grac, GP, Mario, etc..... I think you guys need some serious help.
Its out country..
And to be fair, OW is interesting to read every now and then.
A better question, why not blog about the problems of your own country?
Why try to defend the indefendible?
http://aporrea.org/actualidad/n1...ad/
n115402.html
sounded similar to some of the thoughts on this blog? is that a real change in policy that Chavez is speaking about?
discounted taxes for importing capital goods? to the non-economist mind, this sounds like great stuff...
Tank, the policies you defend are responsible for the two worst decades of economic performance in Latin American history. Talk about defending the indefendible!
But you continue on with your talk of decentralization (hidden word for privatization) and your "small government" (code for neoliberal state).
There is almost no one in the third world that defends these policies anymore. Even in the developed countries they have lost popularity (except from the likes of The Economist, and other raving ideologues).
The theories and policies you promote have never worked once, anywhere, ever in history. Every country that has ever developed throughout history has done it with massive state intervention, centralized planning, subsidies, protectionism, etc.
So, when talking about defending the indefensible, I'd take a look in the mirror if I were you.
" Chávez los tiene locos"
Simón Boccanegra
TalCual
12 Junio 2008
"Chávez los tiene locos": así coreaban los activistas del comandante en jefe, burlándose de sus adversarios. Pero, Dios castiga sin palo ni mandador. "Chávez los tiene locos", ciertamente, pero a sus seguidores. No hay sino que leer Aporrea o conversar un rato con alguno de sus fieles para percibir que están vueltos un ocho con las vueltas y revueltas del Gran Timonel. No es para menos. El hombre es absolutamente desconsiderado con ellos. Acostumbrado como está a darles ordenes y acostumbrados ellos a berrear "ordene comandante en jefe", con lo de la Ley Sapo y lo de las FARC han quedado completamente descolocados. El jurisconsulto Carlos Escarrá habrá aprendido que hasta para jalar hay que tener sentido de la oportunidad. Salió de safrisco, junto con Calixto Ortega, a "defender lo indefendible" un día antes de que Yo-El-Supremo les echara la partida pa’tras. Díaz Rangel fue otro que peló el gajo. La fulana ley le pareció de pinga y hete aquí que El Supremo dijo que violaba los derechos humanos. Nada más y nada menos: los derechos humanos; "detallito" por el cual no se habían paseado los exegetas voluntarios. El minpopó de Interior es otro que quedó haciendo cui-cui. Tan entusiasmado que estaba con su chamba de embajador ante las FARC y vino el comandante a decir que los tipos están "fuera de orden". Otro que puso la cómica fue Müller Rojas. En medio de su pea llegó a sostener que "ellos" en el Psuv "se habían dado cuenta del error" de la Ley Sapo. Sí, no hay duda de que se dieron cuenta. No era necesario haber sido general y gobernador de Lusinchi para darse cuenta. La gracia estaba en que se lo dijeran al jefe. Se quedaron callados. Después no se pongan bravos cuando uno dice que éste es un régimen autoritario y personalista. Chávez los tiene locos.
from "Chávez Changes His Tune"
Daniel Duquenal
Pajamas Media
11 June 2008
" (...) The pro-FARC sympathy of Chavez has long been playing havoc with his international image. But what made it worse is that apparently Chavez had bet on the wrong horse: ever since Alvaro Uribe reached power in Colombia he has been able to slowly but surely dismantle the worst of the paramilitary groups while waging a full-fledged internal war against FARC. The results are for all to see: more and more of the countryside in Colombia is now accessible to its citizens, the economy has been growing at a steady pace, and desertion from the FARC and the paramilitary continue at a fast clip. In short, every day the FARC is increasingly confined to remote areas of the country, and its image within Colombia is at an all-time low, even in popular sectors of the country. FARC seem to be losing their war.
The death of the historic leader of the FARC, a “sureshot” named Marulanda, must have been the latest and most terrible blow to the organization. FARC claims that he died of a heart attack. They broadcast the news in a suspicious video that now is claimed to have been orchestrated with help (via Telesur?) in a “foreign place” (Venezuela?) according to Uribe himself. As far as Colombia is concerned, Marulanda was killed during a successful raid against some of the FARC hideouts. That FARC does not offer a way to verify where Marulanda is buried seems to confirm that.
It is clear there is distress reigning today inside the FARC camp and its very compromised major supporters in the higher governmental echelons of Venezuela. (...)"
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/cha...hanges-his-
tune
La adulación y la caída
Elizabeth Araujo
TalCual
12 Junio 2008
El reciente giro de 180 grados del impredecible Hugo Chávez, con relación a la llamada ley del sapeo, no hace más que confirmar lo que se sospechaba: que desde hace años los grandes "teóricos" de la revolución bolivariana han dejado de pensar con cabeza propia o, sencillamente razonan según el libreto de un líder que en la mañana rinde honores a las FARC y en la tarde los echa al pajón, al tildar a esa misma guerrilla como antigualla ideológica que sólo sirve para secuestrar y matar.
En el caso de la Ley de Inteligencia y Contrainteligencia pasó un hecho aún más vergonzoso: quienes salieron a defenderla, pasándole por encima a sus principios de gente de izquierda, hoy se miran al espejo y sienten, como aquel personaje Bertold Bretch, que alguien les susurra: "Los aduladores apestan".
No hablo del inefable Rodríguez Chacín, suerte de clon de Carreño sin corbata Louis Vuitton, que halla paramilitares en los barrios y se solaza de la eficiencia de una policía que él mismo ha calificado de inútil y corrupta. Tampoco me refiero a los Carlos Escarrá y Mario Silva, de cuyas convicciones políticas dudan más adentro que afuera del PSUV, sino de gente que ha defendido los derechos humanos y ante el inminente peligro que encierra esta norma, por ahora derogada, sencillamente la aplaudieron, olvidando episodios tan dolorosos como los abusos de la represión en las dictaduras militares de Chile, Uruguay y Argentina de los setenta.
(...)
(...)
Apenas un día antes de que el presidente Chávez se enterara del bajón en las encuestas y presintiera que esa ley que convertía a cada ciudadano en un delator podría acrecentar su impopularidad, Eleazar Díaz Rangel se lanzó con un enjundioso artículo que en esencia justificaba la Ley de Inteligencia y Contrainteligencia, por aquello de los tentáculos de la CIA y el Plan Balboa que hábilmente "develó" Eva Golinger. Mi ex profesor de periodismo interpretativo prometió para este domingo próximo una segunda parte que yo, sinceramente, no se cómo va hacer para torcerle el pescuezo a sus argumentos.
Peor aún, días atrás, el hoy candidato rojo a la alcaldía mayor, Aristóbulo Istúriz, en su programa Dando y Dando, salía en defensa de la ley con razonamientos todavía más peregrinos, frente a un ex ministro de Defensa, Orlando Maniglia, que demostraba una enorme sequía intelectual, y la siempre seria Tania Díaz, que mantenía una posición distante y discreta de los planteamientos de su partenaire.
Aristóbulo no encontraba riesgo alguno de socavar las libertades ciudadanas y atribuía el alerta que se había extendido en la sociedad, a una manipulación mediática en la que, desde luego, detrás estaba las manos de la CIA.
¿Qué pasará ahora con estos defensores a ultranza de la ley del sapeo frente a los argumentos expuestos por Chávez, aún cuando estas palabras no sean del todo sinceras? ¿Cómo hacen los aplaudidores de Aló Presidente para secuestrar sus propias opiniones y suscribir sin objeciones las extravagancias de alguien que ofende a Uribe, después lo besa, después lo ofende y luego vuelve a besar? Definitivamente, si el currículo bolivariano va, al menos alguien debería incluir el capítulo 23 de El Príncipe, de Nicolás Maquiavelo, me refiero "a los aduladores, que abundan en todas las cortes; porque los hombres se complacen tanto en sus propias obras, y de tal modo se engañan, que no atinan a defenderse de aquella calamidad".
"But this discussion isnt about the US, is it? Im not from there... why do most pro-Chavez bloggers end up being American leftists?"
They don't - most of them are Venezuelan. If you read spanish you would know that.
""Meaning I am not supporting anyone until I see a very clear and detailed program on exactly how they plan to take the country foward."
The majority of Venezuelans feel this way."
I am not sure about this. I have never heard anyone say this and they certainly keep supporting political parties that don't do this.
So I think the change is yet to come, if it ever comes.
Chavez announced his new economic measures. As I expected, they are a joke. Actually, a very bad joke:
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/y...oticia.php?
6647
It is 100% certain at this point - he and his advisers don't have a clue on the economy. They just don't have a fucking clue.
So let me get this straight. You don't think old people should get retirement pensions?
If they were formally employed during the period the law says, yes, they should get their rightful pension. If not, tough luck. Why should mommy-state give you money if you didn't collect your share while you were working?
You think the state should privatize its education and healthcare sectors?
Only basic education should be free. The rest should be privatized. Poor students with good grades would get full scholarships.
And anyone who works for the government is automatically "sucking on the state's titties?"
Epale | 06.11.08 - 5:20 pm |
From my own experience, something like 95% of public workers are incompetent and are there only because they can't do anything other than sipping coffee and gossipping about their co-workers.
Relax, Dan.
You can go to the Aporrea forum and rant about how clueless these measures are, and then watch how 'real' chavistas te caen encima. They're really open-minded. Remember when you wrote that the currency was overvalued?
Jesus you follow those forums?
That was a classic - when I complained about the lack of industrialization the response was "what do we need to industrialize for? We have oil".
Pissing into the wind gets old after a while.
Just for the record, those ideas didn't go over any better on the N.D. forums.
That is why now I just stick to my own pathetic little blog 
From my own experience, something like 95% of public workers are incompetent and are there only because they can't do anything other than sipping coffee and gossipping about their co-workers.
Mario Terán | Homepage | 06.12.08 - 9:20 am | #
--------------------------------------------------
------------------------------
As I said in an earlier post, Terán, you really are full of it.
OW,
Take a look at the reforms Chavez announced yesterday. You say it doesn't take a genius to make criticisms of the economy, well it certainly doesn't take a genius to understand what their strategy is either, yet you still seem to not understand it.
Take a look at the policies, its obvious what their strategy is, and its exactly what I've been telling you all along. It doesn't take a genius. Even if you just watch Alo Presidente you get the picture.
They are building agricultural production, and they are building industry to replace imports. Import substitution. Not that complicated.
You can go on and on about the rates of growth for one quarter, or you can listen to what their doing and realize that the industry is coming. (Fabrica Adentro I, Fabrica Adentro II, Fabrica Adentro III)
You say they don't have a clue, yet you continue to show that the only one who doesn't have a clue is you.
Anonymous,
How much is agricultural production up? Show me the numbers.
How much is being invested in agriculture? Show me the numbers.
How much is being invested in industry? Show me the numbers.
You don't have to tell me how much industry is growing this year - I already know that pathetic number - 1.3%
Dan,
You used to be like him. Please be patient. He insists on calling some wacky emergency economic plan from people who's been running the country for a decade, 'strategy'.
Are you familiar with Eudomar Santos? His motto was como vaya viniendo, vamos viendo.
To say these clowns improvise is an understatement.
Yep, exactly what I said. You just keep repeating the growth for this quarter like a broken record. Is that all you've got? A number? The fact that you rely so much on this one number, from one quarter, just shows how out of touch you are with what is happening in the country.
As for agricultural numbers, Ministro Jaua is constantly announcing production numbers, and is constantly showing how the numbers are way up. He reports the official numbers from MAT. Again, you just have to be paying attention.
http://www.aporrea.org/desalambr...ar/
n102111.html
http://www.abn.info.ve/go_news5....lo=132914&
lee=3
http://www.eluniversal.com/2008/
...7A1391159.shtml
http://minci.gov.ve/noticias/1/1...a.asp?numn=207/
http://www.guia.com.ve/noticias/...icias/?
id=16569
http://www.rnv.gov.ve/noticias/i...=ST&f=4&
t=68315
http://elperiodico.web.ve/conten...=22592&
Itemid=2
http://www.rnv.gov.ve/noticias/?...=ST&f=4&
t=69503
As for investment, I don't know where to find the numbers, but I'm sure you could look for it if you were genuinely interested. But it appears you are more interested in repeating 1.3% over and over and over again, and not understanding anything else.
Here are some numbers for investment in agriculture:
http://www.abn.info.ve/go_news5....o=108389&
lee=18
http://www.minci.gov.ve/
noticias...las_detres.html
http://www.guia.com.ve/noticias/...icias/?
id=14844
http://www.conapri.org/
ArticleDe...tegoryId2=15226
But really, do I have to do your homework for you? If you really wanted to know this stuff, you could look it up.
As for investment in industry, I would say its too early to say. As I have said time and time again, the focus has been on agriculture. The construction of industry is just beginning with the first 200 socialist factories to be finished by the end of 2009.
But a lot of investment has been going into nationalizing key sectors of the economy, something that is absolutely essential for carrying out a development plan. They have nationalized telecommunications, electricity, steel, oil, etc. These things will be very important to the industrial process.
ow the national assembly has expropriated another private company called Ruedas de Aluminio C.A a company that makes alumium wheels for vehicles. Your reaction to this marvelous news ow if you please.
OW factories are not created by magic wands they take time to build. I can assure you ow that when they are built you are going to look a fool. I look forward to the day when Coniba and 10 state owned companies within it are operating. I look forward to the day when 209 socialist companies are up and running by next year.
Chavez should now do the following to complete this revolution.
Establish state control of all prices
Establish a state monopoly on trade
Keep building factories under majority state ownership or complete state ownership.
Nationalise the banks insurance and finance companies.
Do not devalue the currency
Nationalise the whole land although he already has nationalised 25% of it.
Nationalise the food monopolies like polar
Nationalise the multinational interests like the car industry and mining
Bring in a wealth tax
Nationalise 90% nof the economy under democratic working class control.
Keep ignoring ow
Socialism of this sort has never worked anywhere else in the world. Why do you think it's going to work in Venezuela?
"Socialism of this sort has never worked anywhere else in the world. Why do you think it's going to work in Venezuela?
jsb | Homepage | 06.12.08 - 1:27 pm | # "
Capitalism has been tried in Venezuela and the rest of the third world for more than 200 years. Has it worked?
The only places socialism has failed, capitalism has also failed. So what's your point?
"Establish state control of all prices
Establish a state monopoly on trade
Keep building factories under majority state ownership or complete state ownership.
Nationalise the banks insurance and finance companies.
Do not devalue the currency
Nationalise the whole land although he already has nationalised 25% of it.
Nationalise the food monopolies like polar
Nationalise the multinational interests like the car industry and mining
Bring in a wealth tax
Nationalise 90% nof the economy under democratic working class control."
Ok Mr. Godwin, let's say Venezuela does everything that you list as you wish.
Then what happens when technology or demand changes and your "oil" subsidies dry up and the cash flow is cut to a trickle?
You've already proven that no one in their right mind inside or outside of Venezuela can trust the Government or is going to invest one dime inside your "own little created world" so now what's the Government going to do for the people? Or better yet, How is the Government going to get out of this mess?
I wouldn't want to be on your side of the pitchfork when this idea blows up in your face.
You've already proven that no one in their right mind inside or outside of Venezuela can trust the Government or is going to invest one dime inside your "own little created world"
Get a brain Antonio,
http://www.aporrea.org/actualida...ad/
n115419.html
Geez Carlson, you really need to stop the "Evelyn Woods Speed Reading" course and pay attention to the words.
I was saying if the Venezuela government implemented Mr. Godwin's "wish list" and then gave my opinion based on the obvious result.
"As for agricultural numbers, Ministro Jaua is constantly announcing production numbers, and is constantly showing how the numbers are way up. He reports the official numbers from MAT."
Anonymous | 06.12.08 - 12:31 pm
A close friend of mine studied with current Agriculture Minister Elías Jaua at UCV in the 90s. They knew each other from the Thursdays they spent encapuchados at the entrance to UCV throwing molotov cocktails, fighting cops & being self-important "activists." Jaua was literally a "tira piedra" throughout his time at UCV.
His training in the field of Agriculture is minimal, though he has nice taste in expensive tailored suits these days. But like most of the Ministers in the current government his only preparation for the job is his loyalty to the boss. I wouldn't trust a single piece of data Jaua presents.
His training in the field of Agriculture is minimal, though he has nice taste in expensive tailored suits these days. But like most of the Ministers in the current government his only preparation for the job is his loyalty to the boss. I wouldn't trust a single piece of data Jaua presents.
GP | Homepage | 06.12.08 - 3:28 pm | #
Like most of what GP says, this is total nonsense. I know several people who work directly under Jaua and they say he is one of the hardest working Ministros, and that they have been very successful in carrying out their goals.
And, by the way, if you don't trust MAT's stats, you might ask why the opposition private agricultural sector DOES accept them as legitimate.
OW,
The most prominent ones are in the US or UK. Look at Venezuelan Analisys or VenCentral or whatever it is... No me vengas con vainas raras, fuera de Aporrea es dificil encontrar pro-goverment blogs en ingles escritos por Venezolanos.
Anon,
OW asked you for numbers and you provide them a bunch of inconclusive links?
If you ask me what the growth rate the answer is 4.3% not http://www.blahblareadhere.com.
The truth is, the numbers are either not there or unreliable and hard to get.
I still don't understand what Chavez economic policies are. The speech last night fue pura paja, no substance. He still has the same morons coming up with laws and new expropiations.
Steve Godwin,
You are just nuts.
Anon,
OW asked you for numbers and you provide them a bunch of inconclusive links?
They are only inconclusive if you don't know how to read.
Anyone with a brain can see that they are official announcements from the Ministry of Agriculture about how production has been increasing in recent years, and what investment they are doing. That's exactly what OW asked for.
I mean, seriously, its not that hard. But, if you really don't want to believe something, I'm sure you can convince yourself that its just "pura paja".
The truth is, the numbers are either not there or unreliable and hard to get.
Wait a minute, which is it. Are they there or not there. They can't be both. I just provided links above with numbers. So that means they are there.
And, hard to get? WTF? How hard is it to click on a link on the internet? Is it really strenous for your finger to click the mouse?
Please explain how they are hard to get.
No me vengas con vainas raras, fuera de Aporrea es dificil encontrar pro-goverment blogs en ingles escritos por Venezolanos.
Why would you expect this to be any other way? It is mostly the poor that support Chavez. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out. And since the poor are less likely to get as good of an education, and are less likely to have the opportunity to learn English (they can't afford your average language institute), and since they are much less likely to have access to a computer or internet, is it any surprise that most blogs in English by Venezuelans are opposition?
Hmmmmm. Doesn't take a genius.
Is it also fair to say that these bloggers don't accurately represent Venezuelan society? Sure.
I still don't understand what Chavez economic policies are.
You don't understand because you aren't paying attention. Its not that hard. Go look up import substitution, read about it, and you'll see exactly why Chavez is doing most the policies he is doing.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Oh, Anonymous, you almost killed me.
What has Chavez substituted? AK-47 instead of M16 ?
Or Whiskey 24 years instead of 8 years?
Or bigger SUVs from the US?
Give me an Iranian tractor, man! You have no idea...
It is like the thing with 2 per cent as excellent growth for a nation that has more than 1.5 of population growth (Ow, I believe it was 1.
Anon,
No need to spam. You can answer in 1 post.
"Why would you expect this to be any other way? It is mostly the poor that support Chavez. "
The poor and left wing bloggers from the US and the UK.
I never really expected you to answer much...
"Go look up import substitution, read about it, and you'll see exactly why Chavez is doing most the policies he is doing."
it is only that Chavez is not even doing import substitution. There are negligible barriers to trade in Venezuela. If anything the government is busily making it easier to import stuff to keep inflation under control (especially food). There is not much investment in Venezuela as ow has pointed out many times - and the little there is going into non-tradables (i.e. real estate, shopping malls etc.) stuff that does not substitute any imports. So even if you agreed that import substitution is good policy, it is unclear Chavez is pursuing it.
Sure, you've got Venirauto et al., but that is a drop in the ocean - even assuming that Venirauto will be success. Why is it doubtful that Venirauto will be successful? Did you buy Venezuelan hangers at a local supermarket recently or maybe a Subway sandwich 
...and that is only the most obvious problem.
Anonymous:
Thanks for posting the links. I read most of them. The one I found the most relevant was the first one which starts with this passage:
(Caracas, 26-09-07/Prensa-MPPAT).- Gracias a los esfuerzos realizados por el Gobierno Bolivariano, en su afán de garantizar la seguridad alimentaria de los venezolanos, el país ha experimentado un notable incremento en la producción de alimentos desde el año 1998 –en el que se produjeron 10 millones de toneladas- hasta este año 2007 en el que se estima llegar a un producción de 21 millones de toneladas, según indicó el ministro del Poder Popular para la Agricultura y Tierras, Elías Jaua.
This person is saying that during Chavez's tenure agricultural output has doubled. If true, that would be quite an accomplishment.
But it looks to me quite likely that the minister mispoke and those numbers are not correct for a couple of reasons.
First, look at this slide presentation on Venezuelan economic stats:
http://www.minci.gob.ve/doc/
9_an...on__grafico.pdf
If you go to slide 6 you see that the production of vegetables has increased, but certainly not doubled. And if that didn't double, other things would have had to more than double for all output to have doubled. Yet they didn't put any slides on other agricultural output - why wouldn't they if it had doubled? That would have been a more impressive accomplishment than the slide they did put.
Worse, look at the numbers. Vegetable production in in 1999 was 16 million tons and now it is supposedly 19 million tons. Those absolute numbers obviously contradict the numbers quoted above from the minister. So there is a big mistake somewhere.
Another source of data is the BCV GDP numbers. Here is the link:
http://www.bcv.org.ve/excel/5_2_..._2_4.xls?
id=332
First of all, agriculture is so insiginificant it doesn't even get its own category (more on that in a second). But the "other" category it is part of only increased by about 20% between 1999 and 2008. Given that agriculture is the major component of that "other" category (I'll tell you how I know that in a second too) it is impossible for agricultural output to have doubled as the minister said it did.
While the information you gave in the links is good it isn't a substitute for official data published on a web-site. That data would almost certainly be more reliable than what someone says in an interview. Just as an example I hear Chavez and Ramirez make mistakes when speaking about Venezuelan oil statistics - they are the normal mistakes people make because they have thousands of stats floating around in their head and can't remember everything. But in that case it doesn't matter because we can go to the PDVSA website and read very detailed reports with all the official numbers. Why doesn't the MAT have that? They really should, and that they don't definitely raises some suspicions in my mind. Further, they should at least pu
continued...
They really should, and that they don't definitely raises some suspicions in my mind. Further, they should at least put the "Memoria y Cuenta" on line but they don't even do that.
So the end result here is that even though you have given links to different data here I still feel as though I don't confidently know the real numbers.
Now here is another thing. In reading up on Venezuelan agricultural production it turns out that it is only 4% of Venezuela's GDP. Ie, it is a very small part of the economy (and knowing that it is 4% of the economy allowed me to calculate from the BCV numbers exactly how much it is and know it is the majority of the "other" category).
This has big implications for your notion that they are concentrating on agriculture first and industry second. With agriculture being so small even huge increases in it won't amount to much. For example, even if you DOUBLED agricultural output it only comes to a 4% increase in GDP and per capita income. That is, not much. Even if you TRIPLED it in one year that is only a 8% addition to GDP.
Agriculture is just too small there to make much of a difference in the standard of living of Venezuelans no matter how well you do with it. To to concentrate on it to the exclusion of industry would be a big mistake.
Further, it would be unnecessary. Given that it is so small it wouldn't require that much investment, relative to the size of the overall economy, to increase it alot. So its not like agriculture could eat up all of Venezuela's investment activities for years. They should be able to invest in agriculture and still have huge amounts of money left over to invest in industry.
Yet clearly industrial investment is lagging.
So I dont' think this notion that industry is stagnent because they are first concentrating on industry really computes.
"Like most of what GP says, this is total nonsense. I know several people who work directly under Jaua and they say he is one of the hardest working Ministros, and that they have been very successful in carrying out their goals."
Anonymous | 06.12.08 - 3:34 pm
Weak retort, Chris Carlson. Why would Jaua's employees tell you anything bad about their own boss. I don't doubt Jaua is hard working. He strikes me as one of the more competent among the Ministers.
What I said above, however, is that he has no direct training in the field of Agriculture and that his time at UCV was spent being an "activist" not a scholar. He is not an expert in the field of Agriculture and the main reason for his position is his loyalty to the only boss that matters in Venezuela.
Shit for brains: what have you provided Venezuela outside cheap propaganda for the demagogue? Do something with your life, you are wasting it in a lost cause.
This is the last piece of advise I give you before keep messing with your feeble brain.
Capitalism has been tried in Venezuela and the rest of the third world for more than 200 years. Has it worked?
The only places socialism has failed, capitalism has also failed. So what's your point?
Anonymous | 06.12.08 - 1:31 pm
There should be a picture of you next to "Condescendent" in the dictionary.
First, Venezuela has never experienced capitalism, no matter what the leftist propaganda says. The 4th republic was only a chavismo with power alternance. Nothing more.
What you wrote implies that we, the third world, are not entitled to try the system that has generated more wealth for common citizens and the highest standard of living in history (i.e. capitalism).
Your second sentence shows a total disregard for history books and common sense. Try asking former Warsaw Pact countries if they wanna switch back to communism, which is the same shit as socialism.
Mario Terán - please explain why there is so much poverty in Latin America considering that there has never been "socialism" implemented except briefly in Chile?
The economic model in Latin America has been based on radical exploitation of the vast majorities. This has to stop and will stop.
You can label it however you want but a good dose of egalitarianism is needed otherwise the whole continent is a time bomb.
You must be a real shit for brains if you say that capitalism was never the model used in Latin America. It could be called colonialism or neocoloialism which is still based on the same exploitation concepts as capitalism.
http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/...s.com/news/
3547
Another lies campaign against Venezuela disclosed.
"FARC extortion rackets in Venezuela, say locals
In border states, Venezuelans say Colombian rebel groups extort monthly 'protection' money from businesses and ranchers."
Time for the Venezuelan military to intervene.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/06...07s04-
woam.html
Anonymous | 06.13.08 - 8:09 am |
Please explain why capitalism is good for the country you come from, which allowed you to have a higher standard of living, while it's bad for latin america.
a good dose of egalitarianism is needed otherwise the whole continent is a time bomb.
Your comrades beg to differ.
Mario, you don't even know what capitalism is.
Please provide a definition of capitalism, and then explain why Venezuela, and other third world countries, are not capitalist.
And please explain how the third world could not be capitalist, when the global economy is based on capitalist principles.
Its not even worth wasting my time on such a moron.
Chris, you don't even know where your head is.
"First, Venezuela has never experienced capitalism, no matter what the leftist propaganda says. The 4th republic was only a chavismo with power alternance. Nothing more."
Well put Mario. Somehow people have convinced themselves that what Venezuela got in the 90s was capitalism when all that really happened was that populists (CAP and Caldera) reluctantly (kicking and screaming) were convinced to implement some piecemeal reforms to stave off bankruptcy of the state. Mostly for the past 3 decades Venezuela has had populist and interventionist governments - the only difference now is that the leader barks more and wears a red t-shirt.
"Please provide a definition of capitalism, and then explain why Venezuela, and other third world countries, are not capitalist."
We've been down this road before GIV (Anon). You have definitions of capitalism that differ from what is common. Nobody believes capitalism works in a vaccum. Nobody believes you can just have free competition and economic liberalism and that will lead to development. You need other stuff as well.
"Capitalism has been tried in Venezuela and the rest of the third world for more than 200 years. Has it worked?"
These comment sums up how you misunderstand what proponents of capitalism argue for. Capitalism has been tried in some places, but over the past 200 years there are very few countries and very few times when you've had capitalism, good government, democracy, strong institutions and other factors that are believed to lead to development.
Why do you think Mario would make this comment?
"There should be a picture of you next to "Condescendent" in the dictionary."
...hint. It may have something to do with these types of comments...
"Its not even worth wasting my time on such a moron."
What I said above, however, is that he has no direct training in the field of Agriculture and that his time at UCV was spent being an "activist" not a scholar.
GP has a very strange line of reasoning, which goes something like this: if you're a "tierra piedra," you can't possibly have studied.
There is no necessary correlation between activism and poor study habits. One can be politically active and studious at the same time.
The least you could do, Justin, is learn how to write 'tira piedra' correctly.
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