Thanks very much for the post and all the work.
Perhaps - I am not joking - that report has been read by two or three people: you, the writer of said article and his best friend who read it as a favour. Perhaps the one who wrote it is a nini or oppo who knows nobody would read that report.
I was amazed there was more information on what kind of manufacturing Venezuela has. It is not very detailed but it is something. And as you saw, we were right: Venezuela produces beer.
It also produces Harina Pan. I can get Harina Pan here in many places. It produces Cachapa powder and it produces some other things we like eating or drinking. I am sure the manufacturing related to plastic is mostly related to the whiskey glasses.
Just this: the use of Castroism for Chavismo is wrong, but Francisco is not that wrong in stating Chavez's control of the ECONOMY. As you have seen, manufacturing is just a small part of it all in Venezuela. We all know the oil sector is by far the most important sector.
The manufacturing sector has been declining rapidly since the last Q of 2008 and that won't show there. Also: high ranking Chavistas are forcing more and more people to sell their businesses to Chavista allies and that is something you won't see in El Nacional and only sometimes in crappy Noticiero Digital. The percentage is still not huge, but it is increasing. The "Diosdado cases" (Ebeva someone?) are just some tiny examples. Venezuelans who know some businessmen have heard from first hand
about that.
And last but not least: manufacturers' dollars depend on the state and the state is restricting much more the flow.
Thanks!
I thought the same you wrote when I read the figures for "Edición e impresiones" :D.
I wanted to ask (just curiousity, because I don't know) how come you are so sure the government doesn't publish bogus Statistics....
I mean, there are many ways to publish misleading numbers, like for example, changing the way things are calculated (like in Inflation, I think..though it is too early and might be wrong) or such....
if the way things are calculated is not specified, it would be as I said: misleading.
Kepler: Harina Pan is manufactured in Colombia nowadays....at least the packages I buy...I know: I must always argue with my Colombians friends, reminding them, that even if they produce it, it is STILL a venezuelan product. 
at least every unit of harina pan available in europe says "hecho en colombia" (i dont't know whether it's produced in colombia entirely or only packaged there).
but this fact may be an example for the adverse conditions those 95% private producers have to operate under in venezuela. apparently, it is safer and/or cheaper and/or more rewarding to produce harina pan outside its traditional country of origin. many regulations, restricitve dollar assignment (cadivi) and the constant, at least latent, threat of sudden nationalization is a strong incentive to produce elsewhere...
even if import substitution industrialization was going to happen someday, it certainly would have to be state company driven as long as the private sector has no incentive to expand (or even to stay?) in industries relevant for substitution. but wasn't this inefficient in the long run in the past?
maybe we should be more concerned with export diversification in order to improve venezuela's resilence regarding oil prices (but that would mean re-evaluating the current exchange rate policy and a few other "holy cows").
I am sure Tosh will come back and say "you morons, it is not that productivity is going down, it is that Chavismo is getting up speed and for that it needs to get more space in front"
OK, I checked my Harina Pan. It is made in Colombia. But we do produce beer as I said.
Export diversification will only take place if the private sector gets the freedom to do that, but that would emasculate Hugo Chavez. As Tosh himself admitted: Kirchner has not the same control over his country as Chavez over Venezuela precisely because of that: Chavez is the one in control of most of the money coming to Venezuela.
Well, the challenge will be that when Tosh emerges, keep him on topic. Don't let him hijack the thread.
More lying horseshit from ow. Manufacturing and industrial output as a percentage of GDP has rocketed under chavez as any commentator not motivated by anti communist hatred will tell you. Across Venezuela there is mass industrilisation by the state as the economy moves away from oil dependency. The moves by chavez to disversify into industrial and agricultural development is there for all to see if they can be bothered to go out and look. Try it some time OW you might learn something
Sorry Steve it is right there in black and right - assuming you know how to read spanish and can read the last slide in this post.
Manufacturing GDP is not growing relative to overall GDP, even though it did during the 1970s oil boom. Apparently CAP built more industry than Chavez has. Ouch!!!
And that squares with what is seen on the ground. Lots of new shopping mall, little new industry.
black and white, not right 
I am afraid not ow the evidence on the ground shows the opposite, mass industrilisation of the economy and a developing agricultural sector. I dont care what stastistics you quote ow its bullshit. In this world there are statistics and statistics and the statistics backed up by real developments on the ground show the opposite to the horseshit you have outlined. A number of caveats mind you
Firstly private manufacturing and industry has declined and state development has increased rapidly in the last few years a fact not bourn out in your statistics. This is because the bourgeoisie in venezuela has not invested enough in industry not suprising considering they are parasistic scum. The state has had to take on the slack and you will see in the years to come a mass completed industrial landscape in venezuela. Sorry to upset you ow
"Manufacturing and industrial output as a percentage of GDP has rocketed under chavez as any commentator not motivated by anti communist hatred will tell you.
--- converse argument: manufacturing has skyrocketed as any commentator motivated by pro communist hatred will tell you. who's telling the truth? Oo
"The moves by chavez to disversify into industrial and agricultural development is there for all to see if they can be bothered to go out and look."
--- 1. "going out to look at" a few occurences is no reliable way to objectively assess reality in macroeconomics (unless the economy you're looking at is as small as an anthill).
2. it is a common fallacy to identify "moves" with "results".
3. if agricultural development has been so positive since 1999 why is venezuela importing more basic agricultural goods (having the doomestic agricultural sector lamenting?)
4. export share of non-petroleum goods decreased in the last decade, ergo dependency has increased (or why would venezuela have to cut spending and expand borrowing after oil prices went down? less oil dependency, less "distress". and yes i know, other countries show negative development, too...). check BCV's payment balance data.
A couple of things ow
Chavez is about to produce a decree nationalising the briquette sector in Guayana your reaction to this fantastic announcement please.
Could you give us the figures for agricultural production please ow or is that to embarrasing for you as well mr neo liberal ow
(quote steve)
"...and you will see in the years to come a mass completed industrial landscape in venezuela."
--- we've been hearing and reading this for a couple of years now...
But Zamora go around venezuela and you will see that state owned industrial plants are being built. All over venezuela oil refineries, cement plants,steel plants petreochemical plants car plants, engineering plants etc are being built in venezuela puting thousands back to work. The decline in venezuela private sector is due to the parasite bourgeois refusal to invest. My advice to chavez is to nationaliuse all private manufacturing plants that are closed and put more people back to work!!! and keep on ignoring OW!!!!!
Congrats OW, this is the most informative post on Venezuela that I've read in quite some time.
...awaiting Tosh/Chris/Anon's scathing rebuttal.
Steve - Go ahead and pack up your bags and say goodbye to "mumsy" and find your paradise in Venezuela or Cuba. It must be hell being a Communist and living in a Capitalistic country.
Antonio go fuck off to your nazi golpista friends in honduras
Ho Ho Stevo, good one, someone must have pissed in your "spot o' tea" and crumpets this morning.
I guess it's easy to hide behind a keyboard and live the good life rather than getting involved and actually fulfilling your "Communistic" dreams.
Antonio just fuck off to your nazi friends in Honduras and take your neo liberal buddy ow with you. Make sure mommy gives you a pac lunch
By the way anyone interested in the true picture in venezuela regarding industrial and agriculture development check out Mark Weisbrot statistics and his incredibly accurate description of the reality in venezuela, much better than the steaming pile of CIA horseshit provided by the traitor OW
steve,
you say "the decline in venezuela private sector is due to the parasite bourgeois refusal to invest. My advice to chavez is to nationaliuse all private manufacturing plants that are closed and put more people back to work!!!
---what is the bourgeoise usually know for? i am not as familiar with the technical terms as you and your kind, but i would put it this way (imagining i were you): they're known for their insatiable desire for profits/capital accumulation on the expense of those they exploit in order to satisfy their need".
so, when you suggest that la bourgeoisie is reluctant to invest, it is because "exploitation" (i'd say "returns") don't appear to be as appetizing as it used to be. you cannot seriously advocate nationalizations and blame the private sector's timidity at the same time. think of what may cause potential private investors not to invest...
Zamuro,
This Steve is quite a character who can be very amusing sometimes, but not to be taken seriously for one second. I have sometimes wondered if he is in some sort "institution" in Glasgow's South. Not the drunkest drunk in Scotland would write the kind of delirious stuff Steve writes.
Zamora what the liar OW has failed to point out to you is that the decline in venezuela industrial production is down to the Venezuelan bourgeoisie refusal to invest because for the bourgeoisie the rate of profit is too low in other words it is not making a return on its investment. Therefore it is closing down its plants. At ther same time the State through state ownership import substitution is investing massively in industrial and agricultural development all around venezuela. Ow knows this but because he is motivated by anti statism and the export model of growth he refuses to acknowledge these facts. What i am saying Zamora is this.
Nationalise all manufacturing closed or otherwise
Continue state development of industrialisation
State monopoly on trade
Nationalisation of the Banks
These policies i feel will mean more industrilisation, more jobs, good wages
Steve - you note how these commentators are obsessed with communism?
Not to worry - more nationalizations are underway and what will they say when Globovision is closed down and its license revoked for a minimum of 5 years?
Geez Steve, Steve, Steve -
Can you show me one, 1, (UNO) model of where what you have just listed above has worked? I am extremely interested to know where your "strategy" has been able to accomplish this successfully.
"what will they say when Globovision is closed down and its license revoked for a minimum of 5 years"
I would say that Censorship has taken place and that full-blown Authoritarianism has taken over.
But what do I know, I'm just a neo con or whatever you call me.
Yes Cuba
No, Antonio, you may not be a neo con but you certainly are a person who does not want the law to be enforced.
There are 5 procediemientos open against Globovision and any two proven will revoke their broadcasting license - and this includes cable.
The only thing asked of Globo was to respect the telecommunications laws, which it has not. So, do we allow them to get away with this or set an example?
"Yes Cuba"
I rest my case.
Ow - From your point of view is it such a bad thing to drive the economy forward by consumer spending - ie building more malls?
After all 70% of the US GDP is made up of consumer spending.
"No, Antonio, you may not be a neo con but you certainly are a person who does not want the law to be enforced."
If you are so worried about the "law being enforced" you should be worried about the out of control crime rate in Venezuela. That would deserve some much needed attention.
Antonio - name one country where the population is not up to its eyes in debt and which will have to be paid of by future generations thanks to good old capitalism?
I'll give you the answer. Cuba. I rest my case as well.
antonio: "Can you show me one, 1, (UNO) model of where what you have just listed above has worked?"
steve: "Yes Cuba"
that says it all.
anonymous: "you note how these commentators are obsessed with communism?"
right, THAT is enough reasoning to invalidate even the slightest criticism...
Of course I'm wooried about the crime rate in Venezuela and in all of Latin America, Antonio. The crime phenomenon of the last 20 years is not limited to Venezuela.
However, that does not mean that telecommunicatins crimes should go unpunished just beacuse there is a wave of street crime.
"Antonio - name one country where the population is not up to its eyes in debt and which will have to be paid of by future generations thanks to good old capitalism?"
So what you are saying is that it is better to deprive your people and limit (control) the amount of food they can have each month, if they can have access to the internet or a cell phone, or if they can leave the country or not.
No thanks, I'll take my capitalism and debt.
@anonymous:
"name one country where the population is not up to its eyes in debt and which will have to be paid of by future generations thanks to good old capitalism?
wild guess (really, only a guess): norway?
Yes. Norway as well. And North Korea.
@ano
how could you possibly see norway and north corea in the same set of countries? are there ANY similarities (except the fact they both start with "n")?
antonio: "Can you show me one, 1, (UNO) model of where what you have just listed above has worked?"
steve: "Yes Cuba"
Why in hell if Steve has such a "hard on" for Cuba doesn't he just up and move to paradise???
Maybe because he knows he might not be able to post his garbage on the internet for us to laugh at....just a thought.
"Yes. Norway as well. And North Korea."
I think he meant North Dakota.....jajaja
Cuba is a working class paradise and soon Antonio, ow, kepler Venezuela will be too. Venezuela will be a paradise on earth for the WORKING CLASS
Then put your ass where your mouth is and move there. What's stopping you?
There is more freedom of speech in Cuba than anywhere on earth antonio and definately more than what your golpista coup friends in deindustrilised honduras have
Why dont you go and go to honduras antonio with your military golpista friends in power there.
Again, one more time, What is keeping you from the land that you worship and so truly love? If I was that enamored with a place like you are, I would have to live there, whatever it took.
I am british antonio and proud of my country i want to build socialism here. You on the other hand want to build a golpista venezuela like honduras
"There is more freedom of speech in Cuba than anywhere on earth antonio"
Yeah, your free to shut your mouth or be thrown in jail for being a disadent. I guess that's the freedom you want, eh Stevo?
"However, that does not mean that telecommunicatins crimes should go unpunished just beacuse there is a wave of street crime."
But it is telling which is the one getting the most government attention, it is funny seeing Chavez claim he is a champion of the law in one case but a caring humanitarian in another.
If Chavez moves to the cuban model you can guarantee that he will not win another election.
As for the numbers, I find them too insane to be true, not the current numbers per se but the 80's and 90's numbers, there has to have been a redefinition of manufacturing along the way.
PS I have come to learn to never trust manufacturing and industrial numbers from any government without a detailed breakdown.
Condemn the coup in Honduras golpista lover
"But it is telling which is the one getting the most government attention, it is funny seeing Chavez claim he is a champion of the law in one case but a caring humanitarian in another."
Good point Flanker,
Words without action is just words.
"Condemn the coup in Honduras golpista lover"
Take your meds Stevo, the dose seems to be wearing off.
Tell mumsy to give you and extra tart for supper, it will be alright.
flanker: "As for the numbers, I find them too insane to be true, not the current numbers per se but the 80's and 90's numbers, there has to have been a redefinition of manufacturing along the way.
PS I have come to learn to never trust manufacturing and industrial numbers from any government without a detailed breakdown."
are there any attestable government attempts to "clarify" this?
"are there any attestable government attempts to "clarify" this?"
Why clarify if what Kepler stated was true, nobody cares. I don't even know if it is real or nominal.
It is a hard project though, you have to look at the whole picture.
In Chile their industrial sector towers over their mining sector, until you realize that the rise in the industrial sector shadows the rise in copper prices.
Meaning it is almost all of it is copper refining.
Itˇs amazing how fools such as Antonio and Zamuro defend capitalism and condemn Cuba for creating "poverty" and hence it has failed.
They are so blind that they never look at the "success" of capitalism in Latin America and the hundreds of million sof poor and underprivileged it has historically created.
Antonio has the nerve to say that he prefers capaitalism and debt - that's easy to say when you are already part of the rotten-to-the-core bourgeiosie.
Now, Antonio will defend creating more poor to defend his privileges the same way in which he will defend the coup in Honduras as being democratic.
These hypocrites cannot tell the differeence between chalk and cheese. It's pathetic and they cannot see that the great majorities are not going to support them.
There you have it Antonio is a golpista lover who supports military coups and juntas. No wonder he likes honduras, gives him a good hard on no doubt
"Yeah, your free to shut your mouth or be thrown in jail for being a disadent." - Antonio.
Yes, golpista, go and ask Judith Miller that question.
@ano
i don't know what your obesession is with classing people in black and white categories, but -luckily- that doesn't matter.
i was and am just asking questions here. my last question still awaiting your answer (just out of curiosity)
how could you possibly see norway and north corea in the same set of countries? are there ANY similarities (except the fact they both start with "n")?
In the graph on this page we see the relative performance of the different manufacturing sectors over the past eight years. Very interestingly, the strongest performing sector by far is printing and publishing. Hey, I guess all the propaganda newspapers and pamphlets did lead to a boom of sorts!!
I thought the same, LOL.
Don't feed the troll aka Steve la fevre - it's just a frustrated communist - he should put his money where his mouth is, but won't do so as most PSF communists.
Zamuro - stop wasting my time wiht this BS. The question was about DEBT. Remember?
Now - do you condemn the coup in Honduras or are you also a golpista like Antonio
Good Work OW,
I truly missed your writing style and careful analysis( even if I don't always agree with it).
I got to point out how idiotic it is that we got some dude claiming the Central Bank, which is run by the revolution, is lying.
But yep... 10 years and an oil boom and we are still farm from being in the right track. Yes, the quality of life for most Venezuelans has improved... but is that improvement going to be sustainable? (/points to inflation)
Also... the fact that what little of our GDP is controled by the private sector does not mean anything... those who have invested it all in Venezuela will ride it out for as long as they can or have to. But how many foreign companies will invest in non-government projects in Venezuela?
and... what happened to all that money Chavez supposedly pumped into our industries?
Now - do you condemn the coup in Honduras or are you also a golpista like Antonio
You can discuss the coup in Honduras in the other 2 posts... how about we stick to Venezuelan economy here?
I truly wish we had some moderation in this comments section.
Yes, it is better not to feed Steve.
So the few things Venezuela produces more now:
- plastic glasses (for whisky)
- beer
- red T-shirts & red baseball caps (only printing of slogans as the clothes come from the USA)
- paper for the propaganda
- billboards to show Chavez hugging children or side by side next to Bolivar
I remember I bought a Venezuelan stereo in the early nineties: MADE IN VENEZUELA! I imagine if the company still exists (I doubt it), it will be importing Chinese radios or US guns.
If I am not mistaken, the private sector makes up more than 70% of the GDP. Flanker has written about this before.
So, ElTank, what does this BS mean - "what little of our GDP is controled by the private sector"???
So, ElTank, what does this BS mean - "what little of our GDP is controled by the private sector"???
what I meant is that non-oil related GDP (which is dominated by the private sector) is still just a tiny little bit compared to the overall GDP.
The point is, there is little incentives for anyone to invest in Venezuela, unless its a government-backed project or unless you already have an important investment in the country, are in good terms with the government and are willing to ride it out long term.
This is what matters:
"If I am not mistaken, the private sector makes up more than 70% of the GDP."
Flanker has written about this before.
I rest my case.
"Itˇs amazing how fools such as Antonio and Zamuro defend capitalism and condemn Cuba for creating "poverty" and hence it has failed."
OK, now I'm interested yet somewhat confused. What is your definition of success?
"They are so blind that they never look at the "success" of capitalism in Latin America and the hundreds of million sof poor and underprivileged it has historically created."
OK, since you say that capitalism created the poor in South America, can you tell me a time in known history that it has been rich? or even better?
"Antonio has the nerve to say that he prefers capaitalism and debt - that's easy to say when you are already part of the rotten-to-the-core bourgeiosie."
Since you do not know me, how can you know that I'm part of the bourgeiosie? I can assure you that I am just an average american. Nothing more.
"Now, Antonio will defend creating more poor to defend his privileges the same way in which he will defend the coup in Honduras as being democratic."
Actually, I don't give a rat's ass about what is going on in Honduras. I really haven't followed this event to any degree so I have neither a pro or con opinion about it. There you go!
" It's pathetic and they cannot see that the great majorities are not going to support them."
It seems to me that the "majority" of Chavez supporters have been fed a continuous line of "crapola" or they are paid to support his cause. In any case, if the oil money dries up completely, we shall see the allegiance wherein all of his supporters really lies.
Ano, you are rather slow.
30% of GDP is oil.
90% of foreign currency comes from oil
50% of taxes are oil-related
Basically most of the private sector is based
on import + empanada + reselling on the streets
imports + plastic glasses for whiskey
Kepler it does not matter whether the private sector produces rocket spares or plastic bags. We're talking about the size of the private sector and it's much bigger than the state sector in terms of revenue (not taxes) and employment.
has anyone numbers at hand concerning terms of trade development vs. gdp growth?
sorry, "does anyone have..."
Antonio - I never indicated that South America had been egalitarian. The answer is never. For 500 years it was colonialism which kept the indigenous down and then capitalism and imperialism which just continued the same pattern. In fact the whole mess and inequality here is imperialism based.
Ah, so you are "American", or so you say. I guess by this you mean estadounidense to be more accurate.
I note that as an "American" you just spew out opposition propaganda implying that chavistas believe crapola.
This makes your postition even more untenable.
Ano, everything crumbles with oil revenues. No petrodollars, the whole thing goes down: less whiskey glasses, the less empanadas, the less everything.
And a big part of those "generating revenues" are actually selling Chinese diapers and Spanish panties.
But Kepler, you moron - there will never be a situation in our lifetime when there are NO petrodollars. There may be less as the oil prices oscillates but that about it.
Please make a cogent argument.
It's like saying that everything will collpase in Chile if their are no copper-dollars. Also impossible unless the copper ore runs out.
"For 500 years it was colonialism which kept the indigenous down and then capitalism and imperialism which just continued the same pattern. In fact the whole mess and inequality here is imperialism based."
And you accuse me of spouting opposition propaganda? Reread your above statement and tell everyone how "unbiased" you think it is. "Da man be holding me back", You sound like some groups of people here that don't want to take personal responsibility for their own actions.
Ask my Venezolana wife that tells me that she will "never" return to her own country. Ask her why? Ask her what the difference is living here versus Venezuela. Ask her if I've been filling her head with capitalistic propaganda.
Antonio - I never indicated that South America had been egalitarian. The answer is never. For 500 years it was colonialism which kept the indigenous down and then capitalism and imperialism which just continued the same pattern. In fact the whole mess and inequality here is imperialism based.
and your point is?
A lot of people here love to say Venezuela (and most of Latin America) has not developed because of US imperialism and capitalist interests... while it certainly is ONE of the causes, the true reason we have not developed (and are not even on the road to develop) is our own incompetence., as the "revolution" has proven, even when we have the means... we don't get the job done.
"But Kepler, you moron "
I see you finally made an appearance Chris/Tosh/Anon/Whatever.
Good to see you could join us for the afternoon.
Antonio - if are at liberty to reject my take on the role of colonialism, imperialism, neocolonialism and so on. But that does not make the argument wrong.
Maybe we don't want to develop along European and US lines as if these were the models to look up to. The fact is that both Europe and ther US developed by exploiting other countries resources and using slave labor.
I guess that all underdeveloped countries in the world only have themselves to blame. Right? Strange that you do not mention that the whole system is set up to benefit the already rich nations. Convenitent to ignore this fact.
Antonio - your wife can stay out of the country as long as she wants and re-enter whenever she wants. It's her Constitutional right. I hope she is not too desperate with a collapsing economy around her, foreclosures, unemployment etc. while Goldman Sachs makes billions of dollars from other people's misery. That's the "American" way!!
"Antonio - your wife can stay out of the country as long as she wants and re-enter whenever she wants. It's her Constitutional right. I hope she is not too desperate with a collapsing economy around her, foreclosures, unemployment etc. while Goldman Sachs makes billions of dollars from other people's misery. That's the "American" way!!"
That right Chris/Tosh/Anon my wife can come and go (at least for now) to Venezuela if she pleases, but CHOOSES not to.
And as bad as the economy is (I've never seen it worse in my lifetime) I would not trade living in the USA for Venezuela or Cuba. As for Big companies making money, there are just as many losing money, so what is your point?
And my wife works 2 jobs here in the US, I wonder how many she would have in Venezuela...
"Antonio - if are at liberty to reject my take on the role of colonialism, imperialism, neocolonialism and so on. But that does not make the argument wrong."
I find that most problems are more shades of gray than just black and white, and while there may be issues to be addressed regarding the above statement, there are just as many more that will require personal responsibility and less excuses.
I guess that all underdeveloped countries in the world only have themselves to blame. Right? Strange that you do not mention that the whole system is set up to benefit the already rich nations. Convenitent to ignore this fact.
I'm talking about Venezuela (scroll up and read), and in our particular case we have not developed because our leaders and political parties have always put their interests above those of the nation... just like the PSUV is doing.
Its not the system, its not the rich nations, ITS US. If we were doing everything right and we still could not develop, then it would be ok to blame external factors.. but the FACT is we are not... we have wasted opportunity after opportunity and still have the balls to blame external factors for our failures.
The truth is that venezuela is rapidly industrialising the country through state developmentalism and is also diversyfying the economy rapidly like agriculture for example. They are the facts and OW hates it.
"The truth is that venezuela is rapidly industrialising the country through state developmentalism and is also diversyfying the economy rapidly like agriculture for example. They are the facts and OW hates it."
Of course there isn't a single statistic that backs this up, and still worse it is completely contradicted be the statistics openly presented here and that come from the Venezuelan Central Bank, yet Steve still believes.
Such blind faith would be enough to make any Christian or Muslim fundamentalist proud.
Anyways Steve, you could at least be truthful about the stats: they aren't OW's stats, they are the Venezuelan governments statistics.
Hi Stevo, how are things in Hotel Bates. Is your mother still secluded in that room? She was a bit emaciated last time I saw her.
Ow,
Steve is either an absolute troll or a Glaswegian drunkard. Well, I also thought but hope he is not a deranged Sassenach secluded in a Scottish mental institution, that would be more pathetic.
Off topic, read this:
http://el-nacional.com/www/site/...atos-
opositores
That guy is earning millions and millions a year and he is so shameless.
Anyway: and production last month was down again. How come?
Back to topic: I wonder how long it will take to get back to some sort of sustainable industrial development, even if growth is just what it was in the nineties
The brain drain has been huge. There are less skilled workers now than ever. I am sure the whole infrastructure is outdated for the production that matters...
OW check out Mark weisbrot and you will get facts about the industrilisation of venezuela by the state. I am not interested in selective studies from the central bank which focus on the private sector. I dont give a fuck about the private sector it can go and go bankrupt for all i care as long as chavez steps in and nationalises it which i hope he will. By the way 4 more questions for you traitor
1. What is you reaction to the nationalisation of the briquette sector which is not mentioned in the bank study
2 What is your reaction to the massive public investment in rail, roads, bridges and ports which the report fails to mention.
3. Your reaction to the expansion of agricultural development in venezuela
4 Do you condemn the Honduran coup because you have noit really mentioned it.
I await any reply with interest bastard
Steve, it is rather late in your neck of the woods. Check on Mother before you go to bed. She may need some dusting.
You are my favorite troll, Stevo.
Has Tosh checked in??? If you miss him, I'll give you one of his classic come backs:
"You ow don't have a clue, moron. It is clear that you didn't read Chin Chun Xuan's book. Countries in the Caribbean tend to need more than 10 years to start developing and achieving import substituion due to the ocean currents and the US blowing asbestos into Venezuela. All you can do is use ad hominem attacks because you cannot get through the fact that the best orchestra director in the world was raised under Chavez. Now, suck on it, you moron"
the reality today is that countries that rely upon manufacturing, with the exception of Brazil, are getting decimated by the global recession, especially Japan, China, South Korea and Mexico
whether by good fortune or conscious design, Chavez avoided building up a redundant industrial base just in time for it to get wiped out by the recession, which is ongoing
now, as I have said before, the transformation of Venezuela from a country that relies upon exporting oil and aluminum to pay for imports for consumption is necessary, but the notion that Venezuela should have done so in the last 5-10 years, just so that much of it could be dismantled strikes me as rather odd
I've frequently asked in response to these kinds of posts, precisely who would be buying the products manufactured in Venezuela during this recession, and I've either never gotten an answer, or missed it during periods where I have neglected to visit the site
when I asked for a country that was actually performing well, outperforming Venezuela, the response was . . . . Vietnam! Well, I guess that there had to be a country somewhere that was still growing its manufacturing base in the face of this economic hurricane, but exactly how does Vietnam do this, and what do they make? I suspect that we are talking sweatshops here, and is that really a model of sustainable development to be emulated?
just because an economic goal is important and desirable doesn't mean that it should be pursued in all circumstances, and Chavez, as seems to be typical, escaped a potential catastrophe out of a combination of good luck and indifference
the time will soon come, and perhaps, already has, when Venezuela should take the contrarian road again, and invest in manufacture, so as to benefit from its good fortune in missing the largest contraction of global manufacturing capacity since the 1930s
"the reality today is that countries that rely upon manufacturing, with the exception of Brazil, are getting decimated by the global recession, especially Japan, China, South Korea and Mexico"
Richard, how to you figure this. China is still growing at 6.5% the last time I checked. Venezuela is growing at .3%. And you are saying who is decimated?
Japan and South Korea are already developed countries (having long since pursued successful industrialization strategies of their own) so even if they have a recession they are still far better off than an underdeveloped country. A developed country that grows 2 or 3% per year for a long time is fine - a poor country that has that same growth rate is screwed.
Finally, I think it is very mistaken to think Venezuela is somehow escaping this recession or has pursued policies that insulate it. It hasn't necessarily done anything of the sort. The main difference is that the housing and finance bubbles in the advanced countries popped in 2007 and early 2008 - the oil bubble that financed Venezuela didn't pop until late 2008. Since then Venezuela's drop off has been quite abrupt - their exports for example are down more than any of the countries you mentioned for example. So it is completely possible 2010 for Venezuela will be every bit as bad or worse for Venezuela than 2009 was for the countries you mention.
"I've frequently asked in response to these kinds of posts, precisely who would be buying the products manufactured in Venezuela during this recession, and I've either never gotten an answer, or missed it during periods where I have neglected to visit the site"
The answer to this is simple - Venezuelans themselves could be buying these products. That would be what a import substitution policy would have accomplished. But as we see from the statistics above imports having been getting a ever greater share of the Venezuelan market - the exact opposite of import substitution.
Also, Venezuela has very obviously been following self defeating policies which have been gone over here many times. That is why their manufacturing sector already started to outright decline even while their oil revenues were reaching an all time peak. We have to be careful and look at the data carefully so we note things like that and not get caught up in the revisionist history whereby it was the wold recession that caused Venezuela's problems - it clearly wasn't.
"I've frequently asked in response to these kinds of posts, precisely who would be buying the products manufactured in Venezuela during this recession, and I've either never gotten an answer, or missed it during periods where I have neglected to visit the site
when I asked for a country that was actually performing well, outperforming Venezuela, the response was . . . . Vietnam! Well, I guess that there had to be a country somewhere that was still growing its manufacturing base in the face of this economic hurricane, but exactly how does Vietnam do this, and what do they make? I suspect that we are talking sweatshops here, and is that really a model of sustainable development to be emulated?"
Actually, Vietnam isn't the only country outperforming Venezuela - China is too, in fact by far. But some think China is an exceptional country and can't be compared to Venezuela, hence the Vietnam comparison.
As to sustainability, I would imagine a country with diversified exports and a decent manufacturing base probably has more chance at sustainability than a country that just rides periodic commodity booms.
Lets recall, South Korea, Tawain, and Japan where all sweatshop economies at one time (for that matter so too was the U.S. when it was developing) and their growth seems to have been sustainable - none of them has slid back into underdeveloped status even with occasional recessions/depressions.
"whether by good fortune or conscious design, Chavez avoided building up a redundant industrial base just in time for it to get wiped out by the recession"
Damn, that's a spin I haven't thought of. Do nothing to progress manufacturing and you won't get affected when demand diminishes...BRILLIANT!!!!!!!!! Now, pass me a Polar beer please...
Let me take a crack at your questions, Stevo:
1. What is you reaction to the nationalisation of the briquette sector which is not mentioned in the bank study
Another industry bites the dust.
2 What is your reaction to the massive public investment in rail, roads, bridges and ports which the report fails to mention.
The Robolution is becoming even richer.
3. Your reaction to the expansion of agricultural development in venezuela
Take your meds, Stevo.
4 Do you condemn the Honduran coup because you have noit really mentioned it.
No, in fact they should have dropped the bastard from30,000 feet.
Antonio, you know the lefties are totally desperate when the best they can do about Chavez is that he lucked out.
the time will soon come, and perhaps, already has, when Venezuela should take the contrarian road again, and invest in manufacture, so as to benefit from its good fortune in missing the largest contraction of global manufacturing capacity since the 1930s
Richard Estes | Homepage | 07.14.09 - 9:55 pm | #
And where will the money come from, braniac???
Richard may have come up with the best post of the day. At least he's more original than Stevo.
The answer to this is simple - Venezuelans themselves could be buying these products. That would be what a import substitution policy would have accomplished. But as we see from the statistics above imports having been getting a ever greater share of the Venezuelan market - the exact opposite of import substitution.
Sure, they could have, if Venezuela had imposed a system of tariffs to protect domestic industry, like the US did in the 19th Century, or Japan, South Korea and Taiwan did after World War II. Otherwise, the Venezuelans would have done what everyone else does, buy less expensive goods produced by cheap labor in other countries that allow the environment to be despoiled. If you think that Chavez should have done that, I'll agree with you. But, it would have been difficult in the face of his efforts to get ALBA off the ground. Even so, if probably should have been attempted.
Richard, how to you figure this. China is still growing at 6.5% the last time I checked. Venezuela is growing at .3%. And you are saying who is decimated?
I'm not one who goes around saying that we should never believe any economic data put out by any country, but, really, do you believe this? Look at what is reported on the ground: huge numbers of plant closures in Guangdong province, and an increase in the floating population of workers coming into the cities from rural areas. I haven't followed it closely, but I wonder whether the violence in Xinjiang province is related to competition between Uighur and Han Chinese for jobs. Check out the economic blog naked capitalism there is a vigorous debate about China and the recession there. Note also, because of its large numbers of young people and people from rural areas seeking work, 6.5% in China isn't that great, probably not much better than the axiomatic 2% growth that an industrialized country needs to provide jobs for all that are actively looking for them.
Lets recall, South Korea, Tawain, and Japan where all sweatshop economies at one time (for that matter so too was the U.S. when it was developing) and their growth seems to have been sustainable - none of them has slid back into underdeveloped status even with occasional recessions/depressions.
Yes, that's true, leaving aside the traumatic ups and downs of the process, but, as already noted, they were allowed to protect the development of their industry base before neoliberalism became ascendant. As people like Chalmers Johnson have noted, they were allowed to do everything that the IMF and World Bank have prohibited for the last 30 years. A lot of their growth also occured grew during a period of larger increases of GDP regionally and globally between 1945-1970, as compared with the current period. Even so, given its oil resources, I will concede again that Venezuela might have been able to undertake similar protectionist measures.
Finally, I think it is very mistaken to think Venezuel
Finally, I think it is very mistaken to think Venezuela is somehow escaping this recession or has pursued policies that insulate it. It hasn't necessarily done anything of the sort. The main difference is that the housing and finance bubbles in the advanced countries popped in 2007 and early 2008 - the oil bubble that financed Venezuela didn't pop until late 2008. Since then Venezuela's drop off has been quite abrupt - their exports for example are down more than any of the countries you mentioned for example. So it is completely possible 2010 for Venezuela will be every bit as bad or worse for Venezuela than 2009 was for the countries you mention
Of course, it isn't, and I have never said so, but it is doing better than if it invested in the creation of a manufacturing sector under terms imposed by a neoliberal global economy just in time for it to be decimated because of the financial speculation that it engendered. James Petras is equally pessimistic about the coming years for Venezuela and South America (I was the one who actually linked to his article on the subject here), but I am at a loss as to understand how increased investment in manufacture would help, as he is even more pessimistic about Brazil and manufacturing in South America generally, claiming that the continent is going to be deindustrialized.
As to sustainability, I would imagine a country with diversified exports and a decent manufacturing base probably has more chance at sustainability than a country that just rides periodic commodity booms.
You mean like Japan and Germany? Both are projected to do worse than the US, with the Japanese, as noted, expected to experience a horrible contraction. South Korea doesn't look too good, either.
The problem here is that the neoliberal system of the last 30 years doesn't reward manufacture, it rewards financial speculation. And the countries that are most dependent upon exporting manufactured goods are learning a particularly harsh lession in this respect. When the debt burden in the US burst the housing bubble, the music stopped. In other words, it was unsustainable, and should have been recognizes as such as early as the mid to late 1980s, when the Japanese bubble burst. But the warning went unheeded, rationalized away with the explanation that the causes were culturally unique to Japan.
Furthermore, as noted, a developing country can't adopt a sustainable approach in the absence of protectionist measures which, as already mentioned, haven't been permitted by the US, the IMF and the World Bank, unless your economy is really, really big, with a seductive domestic market, like China and India. There's a reason why countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela with resource dependent economies haven't gone in this direction. The global economy has provided incentives for staying with that, and disincentives towards moving away from it.
Richard,
You really defend Chavismo no matter what. You almost make it look as if what it has done so far regarding manufacturing is product of a strategy and not out of pure incompetence and ideological blindness. The same goes for Iran and Russia.
Here we are not talking about making Venezuela mainly an exporting country in the way China or Germany or even South Korea is. Venezuela does not produce the most basic things anymore. As I said, in the nineties, after a huge fall in standard of living, we were seeing companies appear that started to produce such things as radios and some basic electronic equipment. I bought a couple of those things and I am sure those industries would have had a multiplicative effect in Venezuela's economy: they produce know-how, they train people, they offer alternatives to imports. All that is gone, gone.
Ow,
Did you read Ramirez's latest words about not talking to non-pro-Chavez workers? They are all the opposition and they are all anti-socialists. They are all oligarchs. How on earth are they oligarchs and a guy who earns 60000 Bs a month (without extras, which are a huge lot for him) and the guys such as Diosdado (empresa Ebeva, among others) and Jesse Chacon's brother (several banks, hundreds of million dollars worth) are the proletariat?
Its no about exporting... we don't even produce enough to cover internal needs.
How on earth are they oligarchs and a guy who earns 60000 Bs a month
How on earth is a company where this goes on supposed to function properly?
Now - do you condemn the coup in Honduras or are you also a golpista like Antonio
Anonymous | 07.14.09 - 4:40 pm | #
You want to imprison people for being dissident from the officialism but expect us to condemn an unbloody coup, that ousted a guy like you.. hell, no. And if it's just because you ask for it..
First of all, I'm new here and I want to say FUCK YOU to all. Chavez is my God and Lord and I will do whatever it takes to keep him in power.
This is all about Chavez staying in power forever. Anyone else who disagrees with me and Chavez GO FUCK YOURSELF.
You are all wrong and I am right.
PS Who the fuck is Tosh and why should I care?
Re: Honduras - I hope ALBA countries invade that little fucking country in order to distract the enemy from our power grab and consolidation at home. We also need Honduras back for our cocaine laden flights which covertly fund ALBA member projects and lines our pockets.
Yes that's the truth... what are you pussies going to do about it? Long live Chavez!
Eva Golinger is hot!
"Personally I think the ALBA countries need to step forward here and take some hardcore action to return President Zelaya to the presidency by any means necessary"
The above quote is attributed to Eva in an email she sent me. That's telling it like it is... I love Eva.
Speaking of import substitution? From NPR:
But the results have fallen short, making the country more dependent on foreign food than ever before.
Consider farmer Ramon Barrera, who spends his days feeding a handful of scrawny pigs.
He thought he also would be raising crops after arriving a few months ago in Las Vegas, a town in a sun-baked corner of northwestern Venezuela.
The land had been a vast cattle ranch before the government seized it to redistribute to poor farmers like Barrera.
But Barrera says there is no irrigation, no technical help from the government and no credit.
"How are people supposed to work?" he asks.
http://www.npr.org/templates/
sto...oryId=106620230
Here we are not talking about making Venezuela mainly an exporting country in the way China or Germany or even South Korea is. Venezuela does not produce the most basic things anymore.
Of course, it doesn't, and most countries in the world don't either. And there is a reason. Neoliberal economic and trade policies make it virtually impossible for a country to do it unless it institutes a system of protectionist measures such as tariffs, requirements for the inspection of imported goods that hinder their entry and capital controls
In varying ways, this is how the US developed a manufacturing sector in the 19th Century despite the dominance of the British, and how Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan did in the 20th. Michael Hudson has rightly described the neoliberalism of the US, the IMF and the World Bank as having the conscious purpose of deterring the emergence of economically independent countries.
So the notion that Venezuela could have implemented a policy of import substitution during a period when after other countries have been forced to abandon such policies because of the free movement of goods and capital is not very credible unless the country adopted the measures I describe above, and interestingly, no one appears very enthusiastic about that prospect.
Why? As I have already said, for the simple reason that Venezuelans would have bought cheaper goods produced under terrible conditions from other countries. That's what happens everywhere else absent protectionist measures. And, of course, if that had happened, posters like you would have maligned Chavez for creating a white elephant that manufactures goods that no one can afford.
Chavez is far from perfect, indeed, his limited efforts toward industrialization may have been fundamentally misguided because of the excess capacity created in the global economy in response to financial speculation, a speculation centered in the US home mortgage market, but present in many places, including Britain, Spain and China, just to give a few examples.
If anything, this discussion shows how people will criticize Chavez for anything, as Venezuela would be in horrific condition if it had followed other countries around the world and developed a manufacturing sector in the last 10 years. And, of course, posters like you would have condemn him for all the plant closures and homeless encampments that would have resulted from it.
Finally, also worth noting Ow's emphasis upon "sustainability" in his current economic development argument here, when, if I remember correctly, there used to be more of an emphasis upon export, along the lines of the East Asian tigers, a model that he expressly embraced.
But, of course, in light of what is happening now globally in regards to the ruthless elimination of redundant production capacity elsewhere because of demand destruction in the US and Europe, I can understand why he has distanced himself from it.
Steve is among the 99% of lefties who give the other 1% a bad name...
And Richard, nice try, but face it. already, you guys are running out of excuses. You almost killed me back there. 'Venezuela escaped the crisis through incompetence'. Priceless.
Terán - Venezuela oncompetent? c'mon you imbecile. The incompetents are the US authorities, financiers adn speculators who ripped the heart out of the system capoitalists like you support.
IMagine if the country had been "industrialized" in the last 10 years with exports etc. Now, the industry would be clsoing down with ahigh political cost for Chávez.
Eitehr by luck or design, and it does not really matter what the truth is on this, Chávez and his ministers have done a brilliant job so far, despite the oil ,price collapse.
As Peter says above, tenemo Chávez pa'rato.
jsb - no worries. Mr. Barrera will have to apply for his credit in order to sow crops. The fact he does not ahve them right now is irrelevant.
You always bang the drum about there being no increase in food production in Venezuela. Continue believing this anachronistic BS if it makes you think that this will force Chavez out.
As a gringo said to me the otehr day: "The opposition has no hope and Bob Hope"
That you jsb.
Since you moonbats just came up with this revolutionary theory about Chavez's brilliance through incompetence, I suggest you sell the rights to it to Chris Rock or something.
You'll become millionaires and stop thinking about that socialism crap.
No, Terán it was either by luck of design. Suck on it.
There once was a smallish chap from Great Britain named Steve la fevre. When he was growing up all he wanted to be was a “revolutionary communist”. He studied Marx and Engels with earnest, but he had a particular fascination for his hero Fidel Castro.
One day Steve visited the local “Communism – Patriotism or Death” shop and he saw something that he couldn’t live without – a Barbie doll sized version of his comrade Fidel. He ran home to “Mumsy” to tell her what he had discovered and vowed to be the “best little communist” he could be so that Santa Marx would deliver one under his bed on the celebrated Marxist Day that he always looked forward to.
Sure enough, on the day of Marx, Steve woke his sleepy eyes and lo and behold, a mini bearded comrade Fidel was staring him in the face. Stevo was overjoyed. He could play with his hero now anytime that he wanted. They could discuss overthrows of countries, nationalizations, keeping the people in check with force and propaganda – oh how glorious this would be.
One day, Steve decided to go out to the local sandbox and play with Fidel and plot how they would take over the world again that day. While Steve was having a merry old time with Fidel in the sandbox, the neighborhood bully came by (we will call him Chris/Tosh/Anon) and saw that Stevo was having such a good time playing with Fidel and since Tosh was also a socialist and big fan of Fidel, he told Steve “Hey moron, give me that damn Fidel doll, you idiot”. Of course Steve did not want to depart with his beloved Fidel, so he told Tosh absolutely not you traitor, go buy your own Fidel. Tosh being the bully that he was decided that if Steve didn’t want to give up his Fidel doll that he would just take it from him (you know, kind of a neighborhood nationalization thing) and snatched Fidel from the grubby little fingers of Stevo and ran back home.
Now Steve was heartbroken. He had lost his Hero Fidel to Tosh the bully and now ran home crying to Mumsy and told her the story and she promptly made him is favorite “spot o’ tea and crumpets” and gave him an extra tart to calm him down.
Stevo, here is the question. Do you:
A.Go over to Tosh’s house and demand that he give Fidel back to you.
B.Sit around a wallow in your own self pity about how good things were when you had Fidel.
C.Work on some “revolutionary” idea that might get Fidel back.
D.All of the above.
Did you think it was fair that Tosh took away (nationalized) something that was yours?
Yes or no?
Really Antonio, the length of this paradoy you took time to write indicates that you have no ideas to present and I hope Steve treats you with the contempt you deserve.
In fact, if I were he, I would just tell you to go and fuck yourself with all due respect.
IMagine if the country had been "industrialized" in the last 10 years with exports etc. Now, the industry would be clsoing down with ahigh political cost for Chávez.
Actually, if we had industrialized a little bit more we wouldn't have to be importing as much as we are. Nobody is saying we have to be an exporting nation, but we should cover MORE of our internal needs... we import way too much.
I think the facts speak for themselves: Current policies are not producing results. Chavismo has wasted a lot of resources.
There are many other alternatives that could have been followed to obtain better results, each of them have their own pros/cons but we would have been probably better off with any of them.
When the BCV stats are showing a bad picture... it means things are BAD.
Richard/Anon:
Before getting to some specific points I think I really need to take issue with one key point - that being that you think it is good that Venezuela hadn't invested much in industrialization up to this point because the current world recession would have made all those efforts a big waste.
I disagree strongly on this point.
Economic development strategies are something that are meant to take a country forward over the long term. Their success or failure is measured over many years or decades, not the short term. Hence a strategy that is likely to succeed over decades is the strategy you want to pursue even if their are setbacks that can sometimes happen over the course of a few years.
In an analogous situation, today in the United States it is hard for new college graduates to get jobs, much less good jobs. Some may have to settle for things, at least temporarily, that will even have them earning less than their non-college educated peers.
Yet would you recommend to any young person that based on these conditions they should not go to college? I highly doubt it. More likely, recognizing that over the span of time that most people live college educations prove very beneficial you would recommend that they go to college, even recognizing that there may be a brief period of time when it may not be beneficial to have done to. Truthfully, I highly doubt you would even recommend to someone to postpone going to college until the recession was over given that no one can ever time things perfectly and that over time the rewards so outway the temporary down side it doesn't really matter.
This very same way of thinking applies to countries even more than people - after all people have careers of thirty or maybe forty years where as countries go on indefinitely.
Further, the collapse that countries that simply export commodities suffer is invariably worse than the drop for countries that manufacture products.
Oil prices have dropped 60 or 70%. To keep them from dropping even further they have had to cut production. So all told you are looking at easily a 70% drop in revenues.
Are people who make cars, or airplanes, or computer chips or anything else seeing a 70% drop is sales revenues? Not that I am aware of.
This is not to even mention the fact that countries with a large industrial base generally can offer their citizenry a higher standard of living than can countries that just sell natural resources.
And lets assume Venezuela had done some industrializing during this period. What would be the likely result? It would be:
a) they would have more money as what they manufactured would have brought in more export revenue or have offset the need for imports.
b) they would have a more skilled workforce and would be further along to developing their own technologies
c) and finally, even if the factories closed or reduced operations for a period they could very easily ramp back up as the economy improves. Yet if you have no industry to begin with when the recovery comes you get nothing.
That is probably why when the great deppression happened it was the US, Britian, Germany and Japan that suffered the most yet at the end of it they were right back on the top of the heap. Poor countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico etc. might not have been hit as hard by the depression but when the depression ended they were still poor and left ever further behind the advanced countries which could ramp production back up quickly.
Richard:
More specifically on your points - why would Venezuela have to bend to IMF dictates? Venezuela could erect all the tarriffs they wanted and what is the U.S. or anyone else going to do in retaliation - put a tarriff on oil??
I don't think so.
It is true that many, many countries would face the problems that you refer to; ie they can't get access to other markets unless they completely open up their own which is of course self defeating. So that screws Honduras, and Brazil, and Peru, and Bolivia, and on and on. But Venezuela?!?!?!?!
Not be a long shot. They have both the resources and the free hand to pursue pretty much whatever economic policies they want due to what is under their soil.
Yet they don't. That then is their CHOICE. Not something that was forced upon them.
That is probably why when the great depression happened it was the US, Britian, Germany and Japan that suffered the most yet at the end of it they were right back on the top of the heap. Poor countries like Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico etc. might not have been hit as hard by the depression but when the depression ended they were still poor and left ever further behind the advanced countries which could ramp production back up quickly.
Is this really true? Did countries like Brazil, Nigeria and Mexico actually have lower growth rates and a lesser expansion of industrial production in the postwar World War II era than the US, Europe and Japan? I'm not sure that that is the case, although, with Japan and Europe, given their completely destroyed infrastructure, it is certainly possible, as to the US and Britain, doubtful, but I'm not an economic historian.
Also, I don't think that they were necessarily left even further behind in the 1945-1970 period. My recollection is that Third World countries actually closed ground with the US, Japan and Europe during this period, but, again, I'm no historian.
Even if it is true, I'd tend to attribute it to the fact that Europe and Japan got a lot of direct economic assistance that the countries you mentioned didn't get (ever hear of something called the Marshall Plan?), and the additional fact that the US, Europe and Japan, as the capitalist centers of the world, structured the global economy to their advantage.
For some reason, there is an obssession with manufacturing investment here, to the exclusion of anything else, with a complete disregard for commonly recognized developments in the global economy over the last 60 years.
Also, I've never quite understood how Venezuela was supposed to create an manufacturing sector that didn't mimic the environmental and workplace abuses of other lesser developed countries absent protectionist practices, because, otherwise it would have been unable to produce goods at competitive prices. Is this what you are saying Chavez should have done? If so, be explicit. Unfortunately, that is the implication of your comparison with Vietnam. If not, describe how it could have been done differently, either with protectionist measures, or without.
I understand why you might think differently, in the past, commodity producers have suffered worse than manufacturers, but that is not the case in this instance. US economists and policymakers acknowledge that many manufacturing jobs will never return, and I suspect that many are saying the same sotto vocce in Europe and Japan as well.
Oil prices have dropped 60 or 70%. To keep them from dropping even further they have had to cut production. So all told you are looking at easily a 70% drop in revenues.
Are people who make cars, or airplanes, or computer chips or anything else seeing a 70% drop is sales revenues? Not that I am aware of.
There is a complete lack of context he
I will let go of my argument that got cut off, it's not that important.
Richard:
More specifically on your points - why would Venezuela have to bend to IMF dictates? Venezuela could erect all the tarriffs they wanted and what is the U.S. or anyone else going to do in retaliation - put a tarriff on oil??
I don't think so.
It is true that many, many countries would face the problems that you refer to; ie they can't get access to other markets unless they completely open up their own which is of course self defeating. So that screws Honduras, and Brazil, and Peru, and Bolivia, and on and on. But Venezuela?!?!?!?!
Actually, if you go back, you will see that I generally agree with this, with some concerns about the extent to which it might impair regional economic integration. It would have required, however, an economy centered primarily around producing for domestic demand, otherwise Venezuela would have found itself in the same predicament as Japan, South Korea, Mexico and others. But, yes, this was something that should have been seriously considered.
Curiously, it is also closer to what Tosh used to say here. My emphasis, if you recall, was that the agricultural sector should have been used to create domestic demand for manufactured goods, as in China in the 1980s (absent the autocracy, of course), but your alternative is certainly better than anything on offer from the US, the IMF and the World Bank.
In an analogous situation, today in the United States it is hard for new college graduates to get jobs, much less good jobs. Some may have to settle for things, at least temporarily, that will even have them earning less than their non-college educated peers.
Yet would you recommend to any young person that based on these conditions they should not go to college? I highly doubt it. More likely, recognizing that over the span of time that most people live college educations prove very beneficial you would recommend that they go to college, even recognizing that there may be a brief period of time when it may not be beneficial to have done to. Truthfully, I highly doubt you would even recommend to someone to postpone going to college until the recession was over given that no one can ever time things perfectly and that over time the rewards so outway the temporary down side it doesn't really matter.
Interesting that you say this. Again, if you look up above, you will see that I have suggested that now might just be the ideal time for Venezuela to take advantage of the loss of manufacturing capacity around the world, to create its own, so as to take advantage of a possible recovery down the road.
BTW, where is Tosh??? Is he finding the numbers from the very Venezuelan Central Bank too hard to twist???
Toshy...come out to play...
hahahahahahahahahahahaha
"In fact, if I were he, I would just tell you to go and fuck yourself with all due respect.
Anonymous | 07.15.09 - 4:32 pm"
Chris/Tosh/Anon, you never cease to disapoint. You guys are so predictable that even I (A guy looking in from the outside) knows what you responses will be. Your lines are more tired that you wore out and failed ideologies.
Maybe I don't "add" a lot of information to this discussion, but most of my time is spent actually WORKING. So for me to have time to research information would take away from my job and I know what is more important. And anyway, If I were to come up with anything, you would just dismiss it as more junk from the oppo morons, so why bother with the effort?
Do you really believe that you are going to change my opinion or that I will change yours? I didn't think so.
Sorry Antonio but you are an oppo moron. Living in the US and no idea what things are like on the ground except for the bourgeois media you read.
BTW - your comment about your wife saying that she would NEVER go back to Venezuela. It's interesting since my daughter graduated from UCLA in 2007, she arrived back in Venezuela saying that she NEVER wanted to go back to the US ever again.
At least Fundayacucho will not have to try and force her to stay in Venezuela and she did not get brainwashed by US values either.
Horses for courses, eh?
Ano, your daughter must take after the father and be a failure, that is why she did not make it in the great U.S. of A.
BTW, is she also sucking off the Robolution titty?
"It's interesting since my daughter graduated from UCLA in 2007, she arrived back in Venezuela saying that she NEVER wanted to go back to the US ever again."
Good lord, she was in Los Angeles!!! No wonder she prefers Venezuela to the USA. So would I. I would never live in that cess pool. Too bad she didn't get to experience the rest of what US has to offer...Oh well, too bad for her!
I guess she's doomed to follow in her dad's footsteps. What a shame...
I wonder, ow, if the import rate wouldn't be higher, if we are adding the black market transactions to it. Remember, not all importers get dollars from CADIVI and yet you can find those products on the market, for a higher price.
OW:
SPeaking from a manufacturing perspective, in the plastic sector particularly, 2008 saw an increase in production for a few, but there were also closings and/or buyouts that took some manufacturing capacity in general offline. So while some in the sector saw gains, more was lost overall.
Food sector packaging saw decreases across the board, but other areas in plastics saw at least a maintenance of production levels.
New investment to replace machinery is down all across the plastics sector, even though Pequiven has committed to keeping the sector productive and has tried to allay fears of takeovers through expropiations.
THanks for the work and the research. There will still be doubts as to the veracity of some of the info provided by BCV, but your analysis certainly deserves good marks.
Oh, Kepler, we do make more than whisky glasses in the plastics sector! Por ahora..........
The Central Bank Of Venezuela is not the Venezuelan government. It is a privately owned central bank just like the Federal Reserve in the US and it operates independently from the state.
What exactly are you smoing, and why can't you share?
BCV independent from the state? gimme a break!................
A friend sent me this link. It’s by NY Times best selling author Steve Alten. The book deals with the 9/11 incident, calling for the 8th anniversary to figure out THE TRUTH BEHIND THE 9/11 ATTACKS ONCE AND FOR ALL. “THE SHELL GAME.”
http://rcpt.yousendit.com/
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