They will just sing less loud "Uh, ah, Chávez no se va".
I wonder if the same goes for the very independent Corte Suprema.
How can you shout Uh, ah, Chávez no se va! with real feeling if you know you can't buy a new nice car this year or your daughters have to cut down on weekly clothing shopping?
Chávez should be careful not to weaken the very pillars of the Robolution.
There are some people who haven't been payed for several months in the public sector, but they are basically people Chavismo knows are not Chavista to the core. What I heard from very good sources is that they just payed policemen after a lot of wrangling but they don't know where the next salary is coming from.
I am sure where it will be coming from: from Miranda, from Carabobo, from Zulia, from every opposition region.
The government is reducing the situado for ALL regions, but it is diverting lots of the cuts to the regions not dominated by the opposition or, from now on, to parallel governments.
Expect gerrymandering big big big big big big time. I will write a post on that in Spanish.
Part of me thinks this is a set up - Ramirez announcing no increases so that Chavez can swoop in later and give a modest increase of 10% or 15% which would still have them losing ground but would allow Chavez to appear generous and curry favor with the workers. So we'll have to watch and see how this plays out.
But if it is for real this is definitely serious. To not even give 10% or so is surprising and shows they are definitely starting to feel the lack of money. And it certianly makes their promise of no layoffs seem much less of an accomplishment than it at first seemed - they are having EVERYONE take a huge cut.
Further, this does seem to point out something that Quico at Caracas Chronicles was right about. They announced their "packet" a month or so ago that turned out not to be much of a packet and didn't change much. So Quico pointed out that rather than having a big bang of an announcement the cuts would just happen as they go along. This would seem to indicate that.
30% is a huge pay cut. Combine that with fewer CADIVI dollars for luxury items and you'll have an angry workforce.
And is it true that Venezuela's non-oil GDP is back down to 1977 levels? That's revolutionary.
And is it true that only 20,000 out of a 1/4 million coops is actually functioning?
now Rafael Ramirez implies after an over the weekend meeting with union leaders that the wage freeze was only for white collar workers and he will negotiate a new contract with the unions.
We'll see.
JSB,
that would be easy to look up on the BCV web page.
I suspect that it is UP to that level as it would have been down from it during most or even all of the 80s and 90s.
Remember Venezuela has been a basket case for many decades, not just now.
Ow, is it possible to have an overview of
what those employees earn?
I just want to compare that to what primary school teachers get every month.
I don't know what they get. I believe it is quite high but if anyone can find the numbers I'd love to see them.
Suffice it to say I have no doubt oil workers make a LOT more money than school teachers.
Well, the deputies of our socialist Asamblea Nacional were about to prosecute the person who revealed how much our dear comrade and class-fighter, comrade Figuera, head of the Partido Comunista de Venezuela, earns.
http://desarrollosostenibleparav...-de-
paises.html
Our revolutionary deputies thought it was a state secret.
There is something wrong in Venezuela. Some weeks ago a bloke who occupied a flat in Aragua together with some other professional and non-professional squatters said "he had the right to be have that flat because he studied".
Well, I studied successfully in Venezuela and Germany and if I were to say something like that here people would laugh their head off.
"Pero es que somos un país rico", Venezuelans think.
Ow, you should listen to the clips of Uslar Pietri in Youtube. We are still thinking in El Dorado way. Real education, no thank you.
ow, very simple to understand. No pay increase with 30% inflation means that there is an implicit layoff of 30% of the headcount. Instead of retaining the good ones and paying them well, they will pay everybody shit. Socialism at work for you right there.
We'll see how the "new man" will react to this.
I suppose that you could make the case that it is good not to have people completely without a job. Further, they still have people around to do work and get done what they need done. Thing is though they don't need much work done. They are intentionally letting production decline so how much work do they really need.
BTW, Ali Rodriguez came out with non-sense about the exchange rate for the umpteenth time. He basically said we can't devalue because we import most everything so we have to wait until we've given incentives to build up local production and then we could devalue. Its not a good sign that the perverse nature of that statement is lost on him.
BTW he also mentioned how gasoline prices do have to be raised but right now is not the right moment to do it. Sure. Why do today what you can put off for tomorrow and hope that increased oil prices bail you out from ever having to do???
The difference between socialism and capitalism here is socialist workers understanding the need for sacrifice. Real sacrifice. As opposed to having to be perennially bought off and pandered-to.
So I wonder just how truly socialist this revolution is -- or is going to be -- for the mass of the people. Certainly the leadership of this revolution has been doing a lousy job (Chávez aside).
So I wonder just how truly socialist this revolution is -- or is going to be -- for the mass of the people. Certainly the leadership of this revolution has been doing a lousy job (Chávez aside).
Comandante Gringo | 04.28.09 - 3:30 am | #
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Another gullible Gringo hits the scene. Why do you say that Chavez is doing a good job? As far as I can see, his whole revolution has been fueled by money. In ten years he could have saved and prepare the country for a downturn that everybody knew eventually would come. Instead, he promoted a spending binge. Sounds pretty capitalist to me.
How can you say that the leadership has been doing a lousy job but leave Chavez out of this criticism? It is his job to run the country. If the people under him are doing a lousy job, he should replace them. He is still recycling the same people, so he is the main culprit. Deal with it, new gringo on the block.
Impartial,
For these blokes Chavez is like the pope for the guys of the Opus Deus or like Mason for his followers back in the seventies in the USA. Really: their pop corn socialism is their new opium.
Meanwhile, PDVSA is borrowing money to pay suppliers.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT...428-
713384.html
I wonder where they'll get the money to pay SIDOR, The Justice Department, etc. etc.
Pretty soon, we'll see the true measure of 21st century socialism. Once the sh*t hits the fan, I'll wager there will be a lot of converts to the OLD WAY OF DOING BUSINESS.
November, folks, November is when it will get hot. Escribalo!
Here is a more detailed analysis of the PDVSA bond sale:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/
oi...lBrandChannel=0
Apparently they won't sell them at the official exchange rate but at a much higher 4.7 exchange rate!!
It would seem PDVSA is tired of always getting ripped off and only getting paid 2.15 BsF for its dollars.
So I wonder just how truly socialist this revolution is -- or is going to be -- for the mass of the people. Certainly the leadership of this revolution has been doing a lousy job (Chávez aside).
There is no leadership but Chavez's. He's made sure to clip the wings of any potential rival who's dared to mear fuera del perol. Look at the scorn Podemos and -increasingly- the Communist Party are the subjects of for refusing to surrender themselves to the PSUV collective.
Chavez has made sure to centralize authority, so he shouldn't get a pass when his hand-picked underlings do a lousy job. "Es que al Comandante no lo dejan gobernar" ceased being a valid excuse over half a decade ago.
You wonder how socialist this revolution is?
When are you going to come down off the cloud of opium? It NEVER was (or is) about Socialism. That's the crap for the masses.
It is ALL about greed, money and power.
How many of his cronies will stick around when it all comes crashing down? How many will still spout propaganda when their paychecks bounce?
That will give you the true measure fo this so-called "revolution".
I sincerely hope and pray that Oil goes to $20 a barrel. Not because it will ease my pain at the pump, neither.
I know you've already had your share of humble pie, ow, but let me serve you another slice: remember I told you to keep an eye on PDVSA? You kept saying that everything was fine and dandy. As it turns out, the company that got all the revenues to support the revolution is out of cash.
This doesn't come as a surprise to people that understand and work in the industry. You should have listened.
BTW, where is Tosh??? Looking for the billions of dollars that are in the Fonden and other funds??? hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
They aren't out of cash. Sure they have less, the whole country has less.
But if you go back to the calculations that I did last fall and that were based on PDVSA's numbers being true you can seen something interesting.
I figured the country had net exports of 2.2 MBPD after discounting internal consumption, free oil for Cuba and some others, and OPEC cuts. This is probably now down to 2.1 or 2.0 MBPD due to they have to give CHina oil to pay off the debt they just took on from them. Calculating the numbers the country should get about $2.5 billion a month in oil revenue (assuming the current sale price of $43 per barrel).
Further, it has been reported by many sources that only about $2.5 billion is being given out by Cadivi. So the exports and imports seem to be balancing out.
And guess what? if you look at the foriegn exchange reserves they have been holding steady at about $28 billion dollars.
So in other words, what we see happening with the reserves seems to corroborate what PDVSA has given as its numbers and the calculations I did.
Thus, things look like I would expect them to. OF course, this still means Venezuela's is in a slow steady slide into a recession that it probably won't get out of for a long time.
Ow, you are definitely smoking something known as a "lumpia verde".
Here you are, fresh from the market as it were:
Mucho menos La memoria y cuenta del Ministerio de Finanzas registra que al cierre de 2008 los recursos disponibles en el Fonden, aun no asignados a determinados proyectos, sólo representaban 7 mil millones de dólares, una cifra enana en comparación con los 50 mil millones que anunció el Ministerio de Finanzas.
El balance auditado del Banco del Tesoro también arroja luces, e indica que a diciembre del pasado año, Fonden, Bandes, la Oficina Nacional del Tesoro y el Fondo Nacional de los Consejos Comunales tenían colocado en el fideicomiso que administra este organismo inversiones en divisas por el orden de 12 mil 500 millones de dólares.
De este monto, unos 8 mil 700 millones de dólares están invertidos en papeles de corto plazo, mientras que 3 mil 800 millones están colocados en distintas notas estructuradas.
http://www.eluniversal.com/2009/
...a_1367199.shtml
So audited results, in the Ministry of Finance's own books. 7 (SEVEN) Billion, not 50 billion as was said earlier this year. Where the hell are those 28 billion you're talking about? Answer: In your head and the head of anyone who takes this government's word for it.
Wake up and smell the coffee, will you? And drop the lumpia verde while you're at it, bro.
Roberto:
That article is just taking out of context quotes from Ali Rodriguez and some others about how much money had gone into FONDEN since its inception. Everyone knows that Fonden didn't have $50 billion in its accounts at the end of last year. They had approximately $8 billion, or maybe this $7 billion, to which you add the $12 billion they moved in and you get $19 or $20 billion.
Add to that the $8 billion that they got by bartering oil with the Chinese, $16 billion in dollar equivelents they had from unspent budget monies from last year, and then whate ever little bitt they had from BANDES etc and you see they had substantial savings.
I believe the key word in your response is had.
And I don't think it was out of context at all.
Beginning of the year: It was claimed by the government they had $50 Billion, now they say we have $7. No explanation as to where the remaining $43 Billion went.
Once again, lies damn lies.
There was Mr. Chavez: "Ponganme el petroleo a cero" "estamos Blindados" Blinded, more like.
Now Mr. Chavez: "Well we're not as blindado as I said earlier".
I could go on and on, and fill this post with more examples, but that would be ludicrous.
If they're so flush with cash, why are they emmitting more bonds? PDVSA can't pay its own suppliers! They won't discuss a collective bargaining agreement, and are applying pressure to ALL government employees to the tune of "No discussions, no contracts, no effin nothing"
And as for the Chinese deal, want to place a wager on the price they will be "buying" that oil at?
And frankly, taking out of context anything Mr. Rodriguez says is equivalent to NOT taking it out of context. That guy has so many sides to his mouth it's hard to keep track of each idiocy that spews forth from them.
According to Chavistas, Rumsfeld is responsible for the swine flu:
http://www.aporrea.org/internaci...es/
n133558.html
Tosh must be still tripping on whatever substance he uses, because the last time he came here he was yapping about Venezuela being unaffected by the crisis and predicting oil price increases soon. I suppose the prices won't decrease next Summer as they used to because this time his god-comandante won't allow it to happen.
No surprise there.
Those Lumpias Verdes are HUGE.
Yeah, I think Hugo has asked his doctors something to sleep as he keeps thinking all night long about Obama since Trinidad.
Life is not fair. Bach had to die and Chavez is still living.
"It would seem PDVSA is tired of always getting ripped off and only getting paid 2.15 BsF for its dollars.
ow | 04.28.09 - 11:50 am"
Are you being sarcastic or you're just stoned? PDVSA has been the main provider for the black market.
"Are you being sarcastic or you're just stoned? PDVSA has been the main provider for the black market."
Yes but that is small potatoes.
Last year CADIVI gave out over $45 billion at 2.15 BsF to the dollar. Where do you think all that money came from? PDVSA.
Even the $2.5 billion per month CADIVI is giving out this year all comes from PDVSA and as a result PDVSA is getting screwed big time on the exchange rate (or if you prefer the government is getting screwed).
"According to Chavistas, Rumsfeld is responsible for the swine flu:"
Yes, I saw lots of that kind of junk on Radio Mundial and the readers of that site seemed to gobble it up.
Pretty depressing.
It just shows that it is the loony, moonbat, infantile, pro-Castro left that is running things in Venezuela.
"(or if you prefer the government is getting screwed)."
I'd prefer to say that it is the children who are trying to learn something at Escuelita de los Guayos and Escuelita Negro Primero in Miguel Pena and in Parapara who are being screwed up of their future by people who are running the government right now...and yes, in part by people who are not in government but not doing their best to get us off this government
I was only referring to the exchange rate, not all the other stuff people are getting screwed on...
I'm sure we could make a long list.
Even the $2.5 billion per month CADIVI is giving out this year all comes from PDVSA and as a result PDVSA is getting screwed big time on the exchange rate (or if you prefer the government is getting screwed).
Or maybe the government is screwing itself?
After all they are the ones who decide what we do.
Now Venezuelans who own more than 1 house or apartment are "abusers" because they rent them out. Yes.. that is what "el presidente" is talking about on National TV. has he nothing better or more important to do?
Tank, I have no time now to translate, but do you know what Alpha wrote here about? (talking about houses)
http://free-opinion-venezuela.bl...ers-
gratis.html
Pequiven, the large state owned petro-chemical company, follows PDVSA's lead and announces no increases for its 8,500 employees and 20% cuts for its higher level employees.
“Precios de los carros son una grosería”
El presidente Hugo Chávez instó, ayer, al ministro de Comercio, Eduardo Samán, a librarse un “combate” contra la especulación de los precios de los automóviles.
“Yo conversé éso con (Álvaro) Uribe y unos amigos de Argentina y me dijeron que en esos países los autos eran mucho más económicos que acá y mandé a que se hiciera una tabla comparativa del costo de los carros en Venezuela y esas dos naciones, y hemos descubierto que, en la mayor parte de los casos, en nuestro país un carro cuesta hasta el triple (...)”, explicó.
Mientras leía un informe llevado por Samán, dijo: “¡Ésto es una grosería, no se puede permitir!”.
Pidió no aprobar dólares a empresas que compran en el exterior autos o cualquier tipo de bienes y servicios, para luego venderlos en el país a precios especulativos.
Bs. F. 1.400 millones manejará la jefatura del Distrito Capital. El Inti Intervino 12 mil Has. en Amazonas.
El presidente, Hugo Chávez, criticó ayer que los vehículos provenientes de Colombia sean vendidos en los concesionarios del país al doble de su precio, por lo que exhortó al ministro del Comercio, Eduardo Samán, a los diputados de la Asamblea Nacional y al resto de su tren ejecutivo a implementar medidas de “acción” contra la ola especulativa de los precios.
En consejo de ministros, transmitido en cadena de radio y televisión, Chávez reveló que se enteró de los costos especulativos de los vehículos, en conversación con su homólogo colombiano, Álvaro Uribe.
“Yo lo hablé con Álvaro. Los vehículos que venden desde Colombia, sólo pasando la frontera aquí, valen el doble (...) eso es la distorsión del modelo capitalista venezolano. Yo le dije a Samán: ¿me averiguaste ya? Es que no puede ser, Hay que trabajar muy duro en esos mecanismos de especulación que son obscenos de verdad, hay que frenarlos”, se quejó el jefe de Estado.
Luego de recibir un informe realizado por el ministro del Comercio Eduardo Samán, Chávez puntualizó, por ejemplo, que un carro Fiat Uno año modelo 2009 en Argentina cuesta $7.397 y en Colombia $12.486, mientras que en Venezuela se vende a un precio promedio de $27.000.
No había terminado de ofrecer los datos cuando dijo: “¡Ésto es una grosería, esto no se puede permitir!. Así que invito al consejo de ministros, a nuestros compañeros en la Asamblea Nacional para que miremos esto y tomemos las acciones que haya que tomar. Estamos obligados a proteger a nuestro pueblo, a los consumidores, aún a los sectores que nos están con nosotros”.
Indicó que la medida de revisión también incluye a otros bienes de consumo importados, como ropa, alimentos o electrodomésticos. “Y eso ocurre lo mismo con los alimentos, la ropa, los televisores (...) por eso nosotros tenemos que apurar la marcha en la conformación del nuevo modelo económico”, añadió.
I love how Chávez seems to"discover" a new outrage every week. I realize he's been living in his high castle for a decade now, but surely he hasn't forgotten what it was like not to be a boliburgués...
Prices of those products are indeed very high in Venezuela, but has the guy not seen the whole picture about the dollar and all prices in Venezuela? How thick can he be?
This is one of the most impressive cases of selective intelligence I have seen. The guy is undoubtedly very clever in designing new ways to stay in power and broaden his influence in a banana republic like Venezuela and he he is also clever in trying to charm a certain type of humans, the famous Pendejos sin Frontera, but that is all about it.
Well, a guy who went through bachillerato and has travelled around the world for many many years and thinks mankind is 20 to 25 centuries old (no matter how bad bachillerato is in Venezuela), a guy who seems to pick up the classical books of commies around him and tries to make sense of the world based on that alone without further reference and deeper thoughts about conflicting ideas, without a clue of history, a guy who did what he did about the time zone in Venezuela, a guy who gets excited about mathematics in front of Alo Presidente because he manages to sum up 2 small numbers (he really mentions then how important it is to have a good command on math), such a guy is the president of 28 million people.
That is embarrassing, utterly embarrassing.
It does show what a bunch of pillos y/o huevones somos nosotros.
By the way: "eso" NEVER has an accent.
Did that come from a newspaper? I keep finding that time after time, even in Venezuelan legislation. No wonder the average Venezuelan (and others) think Chavez is a well-read person.
Depends on the spell checker, Kepler.
Going back a bit to the PDVSA part. OW, PDVSA will never tire of being screwed over the exchange rate.
How many deals do you think go through PDVAL and PDVSA wherein $$ are obtained at 2.15, for later resale as permuta? Many, Many, many is the answer.
Funny thing is, they've got it down to a science now, many times the merchandise doesn't exist but on paper. Phanton rice, phanton milk, phantom meat. It's all good man!
So even with a 4.17 equivalent, there's still enough room when the permuta is at 7.
Oh! ummm, Kepler, you meant "eggones" right?
Come on, Roberto!
Spell checkers my foot.
The rules for writing the tilde in Spanish are very simple. There is no way "eso" can get a diacritic on top, the same as "ti".
You and I know that, but I've run across spell checkers
( Word 2003 comes to mind, that would give 2 interpretations, one with and one without, on certain words)
For example éste, and esté.
You are, of course, absolutely correct in that it seesm there is a certain ignorance of grammatical rules, even in respected circulations.
Here's a question for you:
Is this correct? "Yo haré lo que pude"
Umm, can't edit posts. I meant "yo aré lo que pude"
Yeah, but that is another case. este - éste: you need some parsing for that.
I don't know what spell checker can say "éso" is right. There is no single "éso" instance that is correct in Spanish, same as tí.
Vous avez d'la raison, Monsieur.
Kepler,
"No hay cosa que haga más daño a una nación como el que la gente astuta pase por inteligente."
- Sir Francis Bacon
Venezuela was tied to the global bubble economy, as James Petras, among others, has emphasized. Oil revenues skyrockted into the stratosphere because of it, so, of course, when the bubble bursts, there is going to be some pain. I have said this consistently since the middle of last year during my periodic forays here.
The question is, which countries are going to get hurt worse than others? And, what is the best way out? So, far, it is hard to say that Chavez is doing worse than the US and Europe, which are bankrupting themselves in an attempt to revive insolvent transnational financial institutions. Instead of stabilizing employment, and reviving consumption through a social safety net, they are bailing out the banks and brokerage houses responsible for this catastrophe.
At least, Chavez isn't doing that, even if what he is doing is unclear. My sense is that South America is going to have to develop a coordinated response, or get deindustrialized, consistent with Petras' warning.
Richard Estes,
When we talk about crisis in Europe the people have still a standard of living that is way above that in Venezuela, but for the very rich in Venezuela, who will always live the best.
Bankrupt EU and US? Well, tell me what situatin Venezuela has. You won't learn about it by reading Chavez-payed http://www.venezuelanalysis.com
Chavez is selling Venezuela's future...once more. Seen than before, not as bad as now.
Is it true that the National Guard is closing health centers in Miranda? The timing couldn't be worse.
Not only in Baruta, where they sprayed tear gas INSIDE the ambulatorio, with patients still inside, but also in La Carlota. They have also tried to take over Defensa Civil in La Bandera Terminal.
And on, and on, trampling what is left of the Constitution.
Chavez is selling Venezuela's future...once more. Seen than before, not as bad as now.
Anonymous | 05.01.09 - 4:50 am | #
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Do you pay any attention to what is happening in the US??? What's happening in Venezuela is nothing compared to the trillions that Obama is pouring into the major banks and brokerage houses. It is easily the greatest bailout in world history, nothing is even close. And it is doing nothing to revive the US economy, if anything, it is impairing it.
Mr. Estes. Why do you bring the US up? Why anything wrong in Venezuela (or elsewhere) has to be compared to something seemingly even worse in the US. I am tired of this being used as a valid arguing point...We get it, the US sucks. It's evil and terrible. Wall Street sucks. US corporations suck. US polititians suck. Ok. Fine. You win. Now how does this excuse things being done ass backwards everywhere else?
Cheers.
Yeah, whatever. You visited Venezuela for a social forum and otherwise you listen about Venezuela from Chavista news. You also hear Venezuelans still drink whiskey and they are puzzled about other countries in recession, so you assumed they are fine.
My Chavista aunt is worried for me because I am living in a country that is in recession and thousands of people are being sacked whereas Venezuela 'has so far been spared'...
She does not understand European recessions - EVEN US recessions with their crappy social network - are much better than Venezuela's "boom" that is just coming to an end.
My aunt never went out of the country, she always believed in "Mal de Ojo" and stuff like that. And you?
Ow, cómo les explicas a sujetos como Richard las cosas de una manera simple, que entienda?
Qué vaina con esta gente! Me pregunto cuánto tiempo habría estado idolatrando a Stalin si hubiera nacido antes de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Supongo que no habría creído informes adversos.
Mr. Estes. Why do you bring the US up? Why anything wrong in Venezuela (or elsewhere) has to be compared to something seemingly even worse in the US. I am tired of this being used as a valid arguing point...We get it, the US sucks. It's evil and terrible. Wall Street sucks. US corporations suck. US polititians suck. Ok. Fine. You win. Now how does this excuse things being done ass backwards everywhere else?
Because PSFs don't actually give a flying fuck what happens to the countries and peoples they claim to support. Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador (just to cover our neck of the woods) are simply convenient proxies through which to work out their anger at their own government.
They're (usually) children of privilege, who've grown up without a cause to fight for, and the comfortable, uneventful lives they've led have left them with no "enemy" to rebel against but their own government. And so all injustice, real or perceived, must be contextualized against their government, the ultimate daddy figure to spite.
It's arrested political adolescence, nothing more.
EA,
You couldn't have described it better. Congrats.
BTW Tosh, where are the billions you said the government had??? Please tell them where they are deposited. They are going around the world begging for loans. You might spare them of that humilliating act...or is it that you fell for that lie??? hahhaahahahahhahahahahahhahahhahhahaha
Well, I'll agree with Richard that things sure are not going well in the U.S. The level of incompetence, self-dealing, corruption, stupidity, etc. is breathtaking. And I agree with him that in spite of spending (wasting?) trillions they are not really dealing with what the fundamental afflictions of the U.S. economy. But that would be a whole other blog....
On the other hand, as has been said already a very bad DEPRESSION in the U.S. would still leave most Americans better off than the boom of Venezuela. The economists dictating policy in both countries are more or less equally inept. The big difference is that the ineptness is much more damaging to a country that is already rich than it is to a country that is poor. Sort of like youthful mistakes inflict much more damage on a young person from a poor family than a young person from a well off family.
"The question is, which countries are going to get hurt worse than others? And, what is the best way out? So, far, it is hard to say that Chavez is doing worse than the US and Europe,"
Indeed, it would be hard to do worse than the U.S. is doing. But give Chavez some time; he will likely accomplish just that.
There are two VERY important points to keep in mind.
1) Venezuela's economy was already sliding into very big problems BEFORE oil prices went down. Oil prices were at an all time record in Q3 of last year yet Venezuelan GDP growth was dropping rapidly and in key sectors like manufacturing it had already fallen to zero. See anything wrong with that - oil at an all time record and manufacturing dead in the water??
2) Venezuela is just about a year behind most other countries. Remember, the housing bubble burst in 2007 and the U.S. started going into recession in early 2008. In Venezuela the oil bubble didn't go bust until Q4. I expect that by Q3 or Q4 GDP growth in Venezuela will turn negative. Economies don't turn on a dime. Further, for a variety of reasons Venezuela's recession will likely be long and severe with any future growth being anemic. Predictions are always hard to make but I feel comfortable in saying the oil boom for Venezuela is over and the rapid rates of growth seen over the past several years are not coming back.
Ow,
There are important differences you are not considering here.
A Venezuelan in principle spends and spends and spends as long as long as he finds money in his pocket and he does not reflect on that at all. Gringos are like that to a big extent, but not so extreme (hard to believe). Europeans (specially not Southern Europeans) start to panic when they see they have less money to SAVE.
A lot of the disaster was financial fraud, but a lot of it is the psychological factor: oh, a recession is looming...I don't buy/I reduce production
In Venezuela you have some of the most restrictive laws for laying off people.
Now Estes will praise those laws. I don't. They are extreme and I'd very much have in place a system where people without jobs get 1) unemployment money and 2) the opportunity to learn real things that would make them more productive. In Venezuela there are some courses at the "INCES" (sic, it was called before INCE...thankfully they did not call it INCEST), but they have turned more and more into a farce. I know because I have relatives who have taken some courses there. They are more brainwashing than learning really technical things.
What I am getting at is that Venezuela don't see it coming until they are completely struck by it and then it takes much longer.
"What I am getting at is that Venezuela don't see it coming until they are completely struck by it and then it takes much longer."
Not just Venezuelans, Kepler.
Just look at OilWars' own PSF mascot (Tosh).
According to him (or his acid induced psychedelic trip), Venezuela is doing perfectly fine, and there's nothing to worry about.
I am not worried for Tosh. Once this is all over his dad and his mom will provide for him, he will be able to relax in their nice house for a while and read a little bit new commie stuff about why different movements failed, he will eat what Josefina (their Mexican cook) prepares for him and he will go back to look for some job in California. His dad may help him with his connections.
I am worried about the Venezuelans who are staying.
By the way, I have a question about something in Venezuela. Could you send a message to
desarrollo.sostenible.venezuela at
gmail dot com
? Thanks
Wow, this blog (and the banal commenters that seem to keep repeating themselves here) has become totally irrelevant.
Jeff, Impartial, Kepler, et. at.
Where exactly is this horrible crisis that was going to sink Venezuela??? I'm having a hard time seeing it. Yesterday Chavez inaugurated over 100 Barrio Adentro I, 5 or 6 Barrio Adentro II, and a dozen or so Barrio Adentro III. In addition they inaugurated a medicine factory, and announced the sale of cell phones from a new cell phone factory.
Does that sound like a country that is in "crisis"???
As for the savings, they are exactly what I said they are before. FONDEN, Fondo Miranda, bilateral investment funds, etc. Venezuela has easily enough savings to last them through this year, and will not have any problems balancing the budget.
Yes, they will have to cut spending, which will adversely affect growth this year, but that is to be expected. Can you show me a country that is NOT supposed to see growth slow down this year?
You guys need to try to grow a brain before anyone will take you seriously. Right now you are about as relevant as Elio Aponte.
So audited results, in the Ministry of Finance's own books. 7 (SEVEN) Billion, not 50 billion as was said earlier this year. Where the hell are those 28 billion you're talking about? Answer: In your head and the head of anyone who takes this government's word for it.
Hey genius, the $7 billion is referring to FONDEN, which now has around $20 billion. The $28 billion is talking about the international reserves, which have remained constant.
Try not to get confused, okay?
It just shows that it is the loony, moonbat, infantile, pro-Castro left that is running things in Venezuela.
ow | Homepage | 04.29.09 - 3:30 pm | #
Yeah, that's right, because whatever Aporrea or Radio Mundial says is what the Chavez government thinks!!! Seriously OW, you've become totally irrelevant.
"Yesterday Chavez inaugurated over 100 Barrio Adentro I, 5 or 6 Barrio Adentro II, and a dozen or so Barrio Adentro III. In addition they inaugurated a medicine factory, and announced the sale of cell phones from a new cell phone factory."
Oh, so that is proof there is no crisis in Venezuela?
Chavez's show is the proof? And all those barrios are open today, the day after?
Geez, Tosh...we are here in the middle of a recession and you would not believe the amount of money going around.
When was the last time you left Venezuela?
When was the last time you went to Colombia, Brazil or Mexico?
Ow: of course, people in Venezuela are poorer than people in the US, but the question is whether Venezuela has outperformed comparable economies in terms of their level of development, as I have said here before
my sense is that Venezuela outperformed during the bubble, and may outperform during the recession, even though this still obviously involves a lot of pain, precisely because it is less industrialized as the bailout and the stimulus in the US creates a risk of crowding out capital for industrialized "emerging market" countries. something that Petras highlights in regard to South America generally
the prospect that Venezuela will continue to display sufficient GDP growth to improve the standard of living during the worst economic downturn since the 1930s is close to nil, but it may still succeed in protecting its citizens against the worst, and thus, be in a better position when it is over, that question remains an open one
as you suggest, 2009 and 2010 could be very bad for Venezuela and South America, Petras certainly thinks so, and the critical question is, what will the governments of the region do about it? this is where one could legitimately criticize Chavez and all the leaders on the continent, because following the US lead will be disasterous, and result in an economic recolonization, that is the clear intent of US policy, both in South America and even the East Asia
Richard,
You wrote:
the prospect that Venezuela will continue to display sufficient GDP growth to improve the standard of living during the worst economic downturn since the 1930s is close to nil, but it may still succeed in protecting its citizens against the worst, and thus, be in a better position when it is over, that question remains an open one
Perhaps I'm oversimplifying things, but as far as I'm concerned, Venezuela will still be an oil state when the recession/depression is over. That means that all the bullshit that Venezuela has gone trough since Gomez essentially founded the country will continue. I don't see anything positive in that.
This is what makes the whole Chavez phenomenon so much less important than chavistas and the US left make it out to be. Venezuela is an oil state, first and foremost. And it will only cease to be one through extraordinary pain: the end of oil as the main energy source of the global economy.
So what is your point?
Eric: being an oil state was a pretty good thing during the bubble, and may be pretty good after the bursting of it as well
during the bubble, it was in demand, which fueled speculation that pushed the price even higher
after the bursting of the bubble, it provides something of value that can still be sold even as other productive sectors of the global economy collapse (note, for example, the closures of manufacturing facilities in East Asia), because demand for it is less elastic than, say, automobile, flat panel televisons and semiconductor chips
I say this without endorsing the global economic circumstances that have brought this about, or the environmental consequences that result from the use of hydrocarbons, but it appears that the production, distribution and sale of energy is one of the better safe havens during this economic hurricane, as it is a commodity that people have to have (along these lines, note, in the US, for example, that some of the last states to go into recession were in the farm belt)
and, if Venezuela being an oil state is bad, just look at the nearby alternative: Colombia
of course, Venezuela will have to transform its economy, someday (who knows when?) oil will not be so marketable, but you can overstate that, after all, the US had to transition from agriculture to manufacturing, and now, appears to be trapped in a downward spiral wherein no one needs the exotic financial instruments that it, along with the UK, pioneered
in other words, most economies eventually face this sort of thing, even if it may be more challenging for resource rich countries
Richard, have you heard of the Venezuelan Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso? He died thirty years ago (1979.) He's credited for being the founder of OPEC. At the very least, he spearheaded the idea. During the last years of his life, time and again he warned that Venezuela's dependence on oil is actually an impediment to its progress and that it will eventually bring ruin to Venezuela. It was Perez Alfonso who first called oil "el excremento del diablo." He also had common-sense ideas on how to get out of the oil curse. In his old age he was somewhat of a guru. His pronouncements irritated the government and Venezuelans nodded with approval at his words. At the end of the day, though, nothing was done. Neither then, nor now.
Two comments. One, why is there no mention of food production/agrarian reform (interlaced topics)? Numbers from the manufacturing sector may not be up, but domestic food production certainly is, and for a petro-state like Venezuela which saw its domestic food industry pummeled for decades, that's no small thing.
Two, the dismissal of the importance of spending petro-money on health is really astounding. Childhood nutrition has long-lasting effects on future development and health. Literally an entire generation of Venezuelans who in the past would've enjoyed stunted physical development--including stunted cognitive development from protein-intake deficiencies--are growing up well-fed. That's an investment in Venezuela's future. Such spending may well do nothing to divert Venezuela's development path from resource-dependence, but that doesn't make it unimportant.
More broadly, Tosh is of course absolutely correct about there being enough money to ride out the year. And China seems to be running Venezuela a line of credit, thereby stabilizing it during the current downturn in oil prices/production, which, um, would kind of insulate it from the worst of the recession (which again is hammering the industrialized countries and the East Asian exporters).
"One, why is there no mention of food production/agrarian reform (interlaced topics)? "
Chavismo has lasted so far 10 full years, twice as much as any other after Chavez's idol, former right-winged dictator Pérez Jiménez, left the country. Oil prices have not doubled, not tripled, but multiplied a couple of times more up to last year: annual average of $12 in 1998 to $90 on average last year to still over $40 this year.
When I was a child in the seventies there were not so many problems of malnutrition as they have now. Domestic food production has not even risen according to population growth.
"Two, the dismissal of the importance of spending petro-money on health is really astounding. Childhood nutrition has long-lasting effects on future development and health. Literally an entire generation of Venezuelans who in the past would've enjoyed stunted physical development--including stunted cognitive development from protein-intake deficiencies--are growing up well-fed. That's an investment in Venezuela's future. Such spending may well do nothing to divert Venezuela's development path from resource-dependence, but that doesn't make it unimportant."
I said it already. There was a tiny improvement from the times in the eighties and nineties when oil prices were low. Period.
"More broadly, Tosh is of course absolutely correct about there being enough money to ride out the year. And China seems to be running Venezuela a line of credit, thereby stabilizing it during the current downturn in oil prices/production, which, um, would kind of insulate it from the worst of the recession (which again is hammering the industrialized countries and the East Asian exporters)."
Is China not an imperialist country for your?
Or it is not because it has, at least pro forma, a communist party in power? (although it is currently much more far away from communism than any country)
Don't you see how we are again selling our future?
Have you read Black Swan?
I think I will be adding your blog to my list of Chavez apologists.
Interesting: Venezuelan economics
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/ameri...cas/
8028865.stm
Geez, this thing will blow up very badly end of this year.
Chavez will have to do gerrymandering big time, apart from upgrading electoral cheating, not to lose massively in the AN next year...or perhaps he will order the present AN to emasculate itself before the opposition arrives
"(which again is hammering the industrialized countries and the East Asian exporters)."
I'll have more to say tonight on your other points but this is not true. China, the most rapidly industrialing country in the world and which hugely depends on exports is seeing growth this year of 6%. That compares to Venezuela's 4.8% last year in the midst of a huge oil boom. God only knows what Venezuela's numbers will be this year - the government is hoping for anything above zero but I suspect by the second half of the year they will be in negative territory.
Clearly having bad economic policies hammers you worse over time then even a bad recession.
Richard, I thought from your first posts that you were implying having natural resources for sale was better than depending on manufacturing and now it seems you definitely are.
Again, I'll have to comment more later but I strongly, strongly disagree with that notion. It is countries that depend on value added manufacturing that will do better over time, not those that depend on extracting natural resources or those that engage in financial speculation. And that is precisely what is so ironic and wrong about the U.S. governments response to all this - they are bailing out big finance yet continueing to let their manufacturing base wither. Not smart for them, nor is it smart for Venezuela.
As for oil holding its value, oh boy, manufactured products hold their value better than natural resources. That is why gasline is selling for less than what it used to in the U.S. while cars cost more or less the same.
More later.
Parece que estos carajos se hacen los pendejos.
OPEC oil barrel in 2007:
$69.08
OPEC oil barrel in 2008:
$94.45
Venezuela export revenues are to 90% oil and gas.
That is the growth Venezuela had and that is why now the government is in big difficulty even if they still earn several times what they earned in 1998 (even normalizing by inflation and population growth)
Pero estos pendejos sin frontera fundamentalistes no entienden.
I better go and explain evolution to a gun-totting US creationist from some wee town
in the South
One of the problems we have is that we are ruled by politicians. Here in Europe first thing they started to talk about was to invest in motorways and the like. I thought: how thick are they? How many motorways do they still want here, a region that is chock-a-block with motorways?
Now they are investing in the big car companies. Thick, thick.
Why do they do that? In part it is because of the lobbying groups, but I think a lot has to do with the fact that they don't want to think.
To develop policies that promote sustainable development you have to think hard, hard.
I have seen some interesting developments: big subsidies on biotechnology and technology around environment. We need more, like spend in technology that allow us to upgrade unskilled workers (not a la Mision Robinson)
Kepler: watch your tone, chamo, you're in far over your head. The UN's FAO has lauded the Venezuelan government's food programs. If you bother to look at specific production numbers, some of them have rapidly outpaced population growth (some have apparently tripled), while others--milk--haven't even kept up with it.
Now, it's just a coincidence that large companies were keeping down milk production in Venezuela, right, and it's just a coincidence that during an oil boom that under standard petro-state economics would've been expected to vitiate the agricultural sector, the sector actually increases due to, wow, Chavista economic strategy!
Best to ignore such things.
Your response to my comment in nutrition and long-term human development is meaningless.
"I said it already. There was a tiny improvement from the times in the eighties and nineties when oil prices were low. Period."
By every measure the overall health of the Venezuelan government has vastly improved. Chavez may or may not have mismanaged this oil boom, but there's no question that the food and healthcare flowing to poor families will have a long-term effect. If you don't believe me, go read some Sen and Paul Farmer. Your willingness to ignore these things, which will have an effect on future Venezuelan development, as well as on people's lives, simply bespeaks massive class-arrogance and a lack of care towards poor, struggling people.
And believe me, that's not a shock.
"Is China not an imperialist country for your?
Or it is not because it has, at least pro forma, a communist party in power? (although it is currently much more far away from communism than any country)
Don't you see how we are again selling our future?"
It's difficult to tease out sensicality from this comment. Too many unarticulated assumptions. Let me try. The credit lines with China aren't premised on Chinese veto power over either Venezuelan foreign policy or the composition of the domestic political economy, a la ALL IMF agreements and, for example, US aid to Nicaragua in 1990. Hence, there's little to complain about.
Your cheap comment about "communism" in China is non-sense, and barely merits reply. China, former USSR, Eastern European countries, USA, all similar political economies, or will be considered such by historians in 200 years, if we're around.
I know exactly what OPEC oil prices were, I know what Venezuela's growth rate has been. Those aren't the issues. The issues you've maladroitly sidestepped, because they're outside your reach.
OilWars: China may be seeing growth this year, but Japan and South Korea are getting hammered unbelievably hard.
Class my foot. My parents were teachers exactly like Chavez's parents, but I don't claim, like Chavez false does, that I had to go barefooted because my parents could not earn enough to buy me shoes (although they indeed did not have enough money to buy the kind of villas the Chavez parents currently have)
Is FAO the Bible for you? Let's get concrete. Which products, please?
China does have some policies: first of all, the country needs to retire support to Taiwan. Then it needs to shut up about human rights in China and Tibet. And then everything is OK for China.
Look at the disaster it is doing in Africa. The only good thing that can come out of it is if African countries can try to force the different powers (China, EU, US) to offer them more for the natural resources and help them in sustainable development (but they are not doing it)
Maxa,
CAP sucked big big time and yet he did more for Venezuela's sustainable development in the 5 years he governed in the seventies than Chavez has done in 10 years, including programmes for the poor, health, education, etc...
Oh, you did not know where Venezuela was back then...and CAP did not wear Che Guevara T-shirts, so you won't defend him.
At the end of this year you will blame all the misery happening in Venezuela on the US.
Ow: generally, I agree with you
a diversified economy is better, over the long term, than one dependent upon resource extraction
but that doesn't mean that it is always true, under all conditions
so I don't believe that that has been true since around 2000, when resource commodities of all kinds started to go up drastically in price, and I'm not sure it is true now, when many economies around the world contributed to an excess of manufacturing capacity, China, Brazil, Korea, Japan, Mexico, and even extremely low wage countries like Bangladesh and those in Central America
the global recession, if not depression, is going to devastate manufacturing for the next 5-10 years, so, it may actually turn out to be to Venezuela's advantage that it didn't industrialize more during this period, because, as Petras has noted, such industrial growth was tied to the global neoliberal economy, export led growth dependent upon speculative finance capital, ideological protestations to the contrary in particular countries
demand for energy, and commodities generally, is actually less elastic than demand for manufactured goods, which people can decide to stop buying for an indefinite period of time, as Americans are doing with cars right now, after all, would you rather have Venezuela selling cars right now instead of oil? indeed, is there any manufactured product that you would rather have Venezuela sell right now instead of oil? is PDVSA laying off large numbers of people? if so, I haven't heard of it
China has a higher growth rate than Venezuela, yes, but so what? it is, rather obviously, not anywhere near an apples to apples comparison, one could, for other reasons, say that same thing about China and the US, and it would mean the same, very little, but, since you are so keen on China, what about Mexico?
anyway, what would be worth knowing, however, is the extent to which the Chinese growth rate has declined over the last year, and compare that decline to Venezuela's, my recollection is that the growth rate has dropped by half, 12% to 6%, which is, by any standard, rather severe, plus, it is not difficult to find economists who distrust the numbers coming out of Beijing on these sorts of subjects as some here do with Venezuela
and, I have said several times, the critical question is how is Venezuela doing in relation to the region as a whole, better, worse, similar? that is something is something that I think would open the door to a valuable inquiry as to what Venezuela, and South America generally, should be doing
basically, you continue to insist that Venezuela should be industrializing more rapidly under Chavez (which may well be true, you and Tosh go back and forth on that), which, again, in the long run, is necessary, but to continue to flail Chavez about it even as the global economy is undergoing an contraction in manufacturing capacity that is unprecedented since the 1930s strikes me as rather odd, if not economica
. . . economically suicidal
my belief, which I have stated here many times, is that a coordinated response among the South American countries is necessary to preserve demand for the goods and services that they provide to one another, so as to arrest the severity of the downward spiral that we see elsewhere, and put them in a better position to adopt growth policies when this recession is over in comparison to people elsewhere
some of the Chavez barter policies, adopted during the collapse of the Argentinian economy in 2001, might be worth examining in this context
Kepler,
You continue to avoid the arguments. I don't know why. Perhaps it's easier to contend with arguments you wish I had made rather than the ones I actually made. Rather conveniently, the ones you wish I had made are easier to rip apart than my actual arguments.
I'm assuming that the absence of rebuttals is an implicit concession that the nutrition and health programs do represent a down payment on Venezuela's future development, unless poor people don't matter, since development should be a top-down technocratic affair wherein common folk have no voice and thus if they have stunted cognitive capacities, who gives a fuck, since the monos shouldn't busy themselves thinking, anyhow?
Putting aside that you're arguing dishonestly and in bad faith, assuming that I'm a "PSF," that everyone writing on Venezuela jetted in for the 2006 WSF, etc etc., that China is at all relevant here (what the fuck?), let's take your points, such as they are.
Glib responses like, "Is FAO the Bible for you? Let's get concrete. Which products, please?" may please the peanut gallery. But they produce rather more heat than light.
So, OK, Kepler, I'll be your researcher, and maybe in the process you'll learn something about your own country. The FAO is one of the UN's major success stories, and its research is largely regarded as impeccable. I refer to the report, "State of food Insecurity 2008," which of course is using 2005 and earlier numbers from Venezuela, and is thus is not an accurate portrayal of contemporary Venezuela since it has grown quite a bit since then. It has exceeded the Millennium Development Goals, more so than any other country in the region.
Or perhaps figures like these are important: "Specifically, corn production has increased by 205%, rice by 94%, sugar by 13%, and milk by 11% over the last decade, reducing Venezuela’s dependency on food imports."
Hmm. Now weren't Venezuelan corporations processing milk into yogurt, because it has higher profit margins? Could that explain why production has only gone up by 11 percent, whereas population growth has gone up by somewhat more? Now, are there credible reports that large farmers have refused to sell milk to processing companies, that the FNCEZ claims that sugar processors refuse to buy their cane? (Raj Patel's excellent work shows the various bottlenecks that large companies use to exercise control over both prices and production).
Isn't it actually extremely hard to increase domestic food production during a massive oil boom, and isn't this something Chavista economic strategies have in fact accomplished?
So in spite of this deliberate economic sabotage, food production has kept pace with population growth. It's also become more limber, because more diversified--reportedly over 1 million ha are now being farmed by small farmers that were previously fallow.
So, um, what the fuck are you talking about?
"China does have some policies: first of all
"China does have some policies: first of all, the country needs to retire support to Taiwan. Then it needs to shut up about human rights in China and Tibet. And then everything is OK for China.
Look at the disaster it is doing in Africa. The only good thing that can come out of it is if African countries can try to force the different powers (China, EU, US) to offer them more for the natural resources and help them in sustainable development (but they are not doing it)"
Right. China is behaving in its own interests, precisely as we would expect it to. Those interests dovetail with Venezuela's. We are, you'll recall, discussing Venezuela, not Africa. Try to stay on-topic.
"CAP sucked big big time and yet he did more for Venezuela's sustainable development in the 5 years he governed in the seventies than Chavez has done in 10 years, including programmes for the poor, health, education, etc..."
clearly, CAP did wonders for the Venezuelan economy. Since the aftermath of his policies was, fuck, what was it again? Right, massive foreign debt. Which is what the current president has rung up too, right? Except, wrong. Thus, the two governments don't merit comparison on that point.
"Oh, you did not know where Venezuela was back then...and CAP did not wear Che Guevara T-shirts, so you won't defend him.
At the end of this year you will blame all the misery happening in Venezuela on the US."
You've finally made a valid point. I had no fucking idea where Venezuela was back then. I also wasn't alive. I also think Guevara a romantic, and don't see the relevance of him here, except to add me to some homogeneous category of PSFs, drooling, presumably, over Castro, Chavez, and Che. Except we're discussing policies, not people.
This isn't a serious conversation. I keep on hoping to find a serious discussion of chavista agricultural development strategies. I guess here isn't the place.
This isn't a serious conversation. I keep on hoping to find a serious discussion of chavista agricultural development strategies. I guess here isn't the place.
maxa | Homepage | 05.05.09 - 3:07 pm | #
By way of background, if you weren't here then, Ow and I discussed what was the most appropriate development policy for Venezuela here a year or so ago, and I argued for expansion of the agricultural sector, and putting land in the hands of people who actually want to produce food, while Ow generally supported the notion that these people (campesinos, basically) should instead be induced to work in the manufacturing sector, proletarianizing them, in other words.
I say this as a partial explanation as to why agricultural development issues don't appear to be a priority of this blog, except perhaps in an indirect sense when it comes up in the context of whether there is a sufficient food supply for an urban workforce.
Fuck, the vast majority of those people don't want to work in agriculture. What are you going to do? Khmer Rouge them? Once all those farms (by the way, not the ones of Chavez or Rodriguez, Diosdado and the like) are taken over, they are distributed to professional squatters who then resell them to this or that big red-very-red Chavista.
Maxa,
I brought up China because the PSFs keep using it as a proof Venezuela is now becoming independent as in "And China seems to be running Venezuela a line of credit, thereby stabilizing it during the current downturn in oil prices/production"...etc while it is doing the very same thing the US was doing before, only that for PSFs China is good and the US is evil and when we mention China's not-so-nice-things you run to say "Oh, off topic, off topic"...geez.
As for food production: first give me the numbers across a couple of decades and then we talk. Chavistas love, really love to give "estadísticas chucutas", like compare two isolated weekends in different years where the second one had a drop in crime in X% and claim that crime in the second year was reduced by X%.
Please, enjoy:
http://www.caracaschronicles.com...ood-
safety.html
CAP:
Just wait one year or two, this is a much bigger oil boom than the one in the seventies...just wait and see what surplus we will have (on top of the fact that Venezuela's reserves are nowadays more of a guess than anything else, as they make up numbers as some people improvize with jazz)
The food for the poor is important. Actually, quite some of my relatives are poor and they would be affected by the coming crisis more than your Diosdados and Chavez Junior and your dear PSUV leaders. Chavez hasn't got YET debt (at least the whole kettle of false reserves hasn't been revealed), but he
1- has produced more inequality (just look at the fact the murder rate in Venezuela has increased 300% in 10 years, something that hasn't happened in Colombia, in Brazil, even in 'failed-state Mexico"
2- claimed to have eliminated illiteracy when that is a big fib, when the education levels have actually continued going down the drain, when Venezuela even pulled out of UNESCO's open evaluations, when the Robinson programme and others are just a farce where people are given a piece of shitty paper that is worth nothing and some dosh just for them to vote for Chavez, not to build a Venezuela
3- hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans who are not rich but educated have decided in the middle of the biggest oil boom to leave the country, tired of crime and political mobbing (or should I have present you a couple of speeches of Chavez, what happened with La Lista and similar things? When even the minister of work declared in front of the cameras they would sack whoever signed against Chavez?
Talking about honesty: how do you explain Minister Maduro said over half of the Venezuelans registered abroad to vote SIGNED a petition supporting Chavez's
Campesinos have been killed for years in western Venezuela by landlords hiring Colombian paramilitaries and others to act as death squads. Guess they are too stupid to know that they don't want to work in agriculture.
Not to change the topic of the last posts, but this thread is about PDVSA.
This opinion piece pretty much describes the incredible damage PDVSA has suffered at the hands of these pendejos.
http://opinion.eluniversal.com/
2...5A2315969.shtml
Very, very sad. Thanks Hugo.
Richard--
I'd been checking this blog less frequently in the past, have been following it more frequently recently. Thanks for the background here re: agricultural development. I would add that any country attempting late-development at this stage of the game needs to focus extremely heavily on agrarian reform and what peasant movements call food sovereignty. I could get into it, but this isn't the place, clearly.
Clearly those silly-billy campesinos would prefer to work in the informal sector at best in Caracas than in the countryside. The toll of dead peasant leaders is incidentally at over 200 by now.
Kepler: if you insist on being stupid, I'm going to continue treating you like an idiot. The World Bank's production numbers are from 2004/2005, comparing them to 2000/2001. 2004/2005 the Venezuelan economy was recovering from an opposition-induced depression. In those halcyon days, production was concentrated, almost none of the agrarian reform had taken place. The numbers, pana, are useless.
"Fuck, the vast majority of those people don't want to work in agriculture. What are you going to do? Khmer Rouge them? Once all those farms (by the way, not the ones of Chavez or Rodriguez, Diosdado and the like) are taken over, they are distributed to professional squatters who then resell them to this or that big red-very-red Chavista."
Right. Except many of them do. Like those silly fuckers I went down and talked to in Coro, or when they came into Caracas as part of the FNCEZ delegation.
"I brought up China because the PSFs keep using it as a proof Venezuela is now becoming independent as in "And China seems to be running Venezuela a line of credit, thereby stabilizing it during the current downturn in oil prices/production"...etc while it is doing the very same thing the US was doing before, only that for PSFs China is good and the US is evil and when we mention China's not-so-nice-things you run to say "Oh, off topic, off topic"...geez."
No, the issue, which you are sedulously avoiding, is that Chinese monies do not come with the type of strings attached that IMF or American monies did, thereby making the funds effect on Venezuelan sovereignty less pernicious. Got it? Good.
This gem actually merits separate response: "for PSFs China is good," then by definition I'm not a PSF. That's good too.
"
As for food production: first give me the numbers across a couple of decades and then we talk. Chavistas love, really love to give "estadísticas chucutas", like compare two isolated weekends in different years where the second one had a drop in crime in X% and claim that crime in the second year was reduced by X%."
Actually that would be your intellectuals, "scholars" like Rodriguez and Corrales. And the World Bank, we'll add. But never mind the truth, there's a dogma to defend!
"1- has produced more inequality (just look at the fact the murder rate in Venezuela has increased 300% i
"1- has produced more inequality (just look at the fact the murder rate in Venezuela has increased 300% in 10 years, something that hasn't happened in Colombia, in Brazil, even in 'failed-state Mexico"
Increases in death due to violent crime are distinct issue from increases in inequality. The Venezuelan HDI has increased in the last decade and Gini coefficient has dropped. Hence, inequality has decreased.
Claims 2 and 3 are irrelevant.
I'm considering this matter closed on your end, you've rebutted not a one of my points. OW probably has something to say.
You, shush.
Yeah, how much is literacy now? 110%?
In 1997 literacy was around 93%. About half of those declared illiterate were over 65 years old.
How many illiterate registered at the PSUV?
Well, Mr Chavez, that man who thinks mankind is 20 to 25 centuries old (and he did bachillerato) is one of those considered literate.
I would add that any country attempting late-development at this stage of the game needs to focus extremely heavily on agrarian reform and what peasant movements call food sovereignty.
Not surprisingly, I generally agree with this. I would add that such a policy may become even more essential during this recession as a means of creating employment for people who would otherwise find themselves impoverished as jobs in other sectors of the economy vanish. Think of it as a form of import substitution whereby Venezuela substitutes its own produce for produce currently grown elsewhere.
Job creation has become a critical issue throughout the world for years now, as capitalist development has failed to generate enough of them to accomodate population growth, especially in lesser developed countries. Hence, the increasingly informalization of work.
The recession is bringing this problem into sharp relief (note, for example, plant closures throughout Guangdong Province in China with an attendant iincrease in unemployment for the internal migrant population that were previously considered part of the peasantry). Agrarian reform could end up being the best jobs program around.
Maxa and Richard,
Your tireless arguments seem to rest on the belief that Chavez at least offers something very slightly better than the alternative. Maybe that's true. But people who care about Venezuela--people who have true investments in the country, as I do (I'm not talking financially)--want something more than "slightly better." And we believe that actual competency could lead to it.
Chavez has presided over the greatest oil boom ever. And what has he done with it? I truly don't care about comparisons between him and CAP (despite Kepler's obsession). I care about Venezuela NOW, pulling itself out of the shit that it is stuck in. And that's not happening. Now, you two probably agree; in fact, you choose to argue a far less ambitious position: that Venezuela is in the gutter, but, ehhh, not as much as it would be otherwise. Maybe you're right. I guess that's just not a discussion that interests me. Venezuela isn't a theoretical playground for me. It's the real world. So I'll be damned if I'm going to start sticking my leftist US neck out for the Chavez administration. I'm not looking for evidence to back up an intellectual, ideological position. I'm looking for something that will improve the lives of people who I know, people who I care about.
Maybe you think such emotionalism is disconnected from rational intellectualism. But if that's the case, I beg to disagree.
You continue to avoid the arguments. I don't know why. Perhaps it's easier to contend with arguments you wish I had made rather than the ones I actually made. Rather conveniently, the ones you wish I had made are easier to rip apart than my actual arguments.
Maxa, meet Kepler. Most of us have simply learned to ignore him. I'm not sure how many thousands of times he has told us about how his parents were teachers, and blah blah blah. This guy has the brain power of a handicapped flea.
This isn't a serious conversation. I keep on hoping to find a serious discussion of chavista agricultural development strategies. I guess here isn't the place.
maxa | Homepage | 05.05.09 - 3:07 pm | #
Well, I gotta hand it to you Maxa, you sure figured this out a hell of a lot quicker than I did.
I've been trying to discuss development policy with these clowns for years, to no avail. OW has been drooling over the East Asian "miracles" so long that he gets a hard-on when you mention "export-oriented." Yet he has virtually no understanding of why that strategy is unfeasible, and would lead to total failure. He has now resorted to using China as his example, falsely claiming that they are an "export-led model". Earth to OW: China has the largest internal market of any country on the planet, and they strongly protect it. Hardly an export-led model.
As for the rabidly anti-Chavez crowd that occasionally comments here. Well, I think their ridiculousness speaks for themselves.
So, no, this probably isn't the place to have a serious discussion on Venezuela's development. At least you were smart enough to realize that right off the bat.
Tosh: Why do you keep popping up here then?
Eric,
I never thought CAP was good, I detested his presidency and my first vote was more against him than for Causa R (198
.
I am using him because 1) he presided on his first term over an oil boom and 2) I know how the situation in the seventies for the poor was. It was bad and yet it was much better in real terms than what we have now. There was no sustainability either, but let's not talk about sustainable development with these PSFs, that is too much.
The thing is PSFs are obsessed with "IT IS EITHER CHAVEZ OR WHAT YOU HAD IN THE EIGHTIES-NINETIES". Even if they said "it is either Chavez or what you had in any period before him" that is rubbish.
But then PSFs keep telling us we should accept our lot as it is a nice experiment for them: to try to see a land where the leaders claim to defend the same images - I don't talk about ideologies as there is hardly that - they defend.
You are right: Venezuela must demand much more. The country keeps going backwards, there is (was) nothing more than petrodollars keeping the impression it is otherwise.
tosh wrote
"So, no, this probably isn't the place to have a serious discussion on Venezuela's development. "
And where is the place to dicuss it?
I've been trying to discuss development policy with these clowns for years, to no avail. OW has been drooling over the East Asian "miracles" so long that he gets a hard-on when you mention "export-oriented." Yet he has virtually no understanding of why that strategy is unfeasible, and would lead to total failure. He has now resorted to using China as his example, falsely claiming that they are an "export-led model". Earth to OW: China has the largest internal market of any country on the planet, and they strongly protect it. Hardly an export-led model.
Besides the obvious, the Chinese economy is shedding manufacturing jobs at a frightening rate, there is this fact that you mention, and much of China's growth for the last 10 years has been driven by domestic investment in the domestic market.
For a good discussion of this, check out Richard Walker's article, "The Chinese Road", co-authored with someone I've forgotten, in the New Left Review a couple of years ago.
Eric: are you looking for any evidence at all?
But, just to summarize, the Chavez record is economically superior to the neoliberal governance that preceded him, and, so far, despite the assertions of Ow, it is better than what is currently happening to many people in other countries around the world.
So, against my better judgment, I'll bite: what developmental policy do you support for Venezuela as a leftist? Is it warmed over Primeria Justicia foreign investment neoliberalism? Please provide an example of your "leftist" ideas so as to distinguish them from the liberal and right wing opposition.
Richard, a couple of questions:
Do you think Chavez's handling of development has been better than the one between 1968 and 1978? And between 1988 and 1998? Do you think he would have done better even if the oil price would have remained at 12 to 20 dollars per barrel?
Are you a left winger?
About governance: I assume you believe transparency is part of that. Do you think the Central Bank now is more transparent than in previous governments? Yes or no?
Do you think Chavez is more transparent on education progress? (as you may know, education has something to do with development)
Kepler:
some answers
1968 to 1978; can't say
1988 to 1998: yes, as the policy during this period was resulting in the deindustrialization of the country, while leaving a lot of arable land fallow
$12 to $20 dollars a barrel: can't say, but it is worth noting that Chavez and Rodriguez played an active role in increasing the price of oil for the country's benefit
left winger?: more anarchist than socialist (definitely not Marxist-Leninist), and, in this regard, the Chavez record is rather mixed, as I have noted here and elsewhere many times
Central Bank? can't say, except to note that I don't know of any Central Bank anywhere in the world that I would describe as transparent (just look at the US, Europe and Japan these days)
Education Progress: can't say
hope this helps
Anarchist? Some recent author who is an anarchist and explains how he conceive that working in this century?
How do you stand to these?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonome
excellent questions!
unfortunately, I don't have time to respond at length, except to say that there were contradictory and conflicting threads within the autonomous movements as put into practice in Italy and Germany, with some rooted in Marxism, and others evolving out of the social transformation of the period, especially as it related to women and young people
the more Marxists influenced autonomists were unable to overcome two impediments: (1) the inability to fully shed the vanguardism that is one of the defining characteristics of Marxist-Leninism; and (2) the perpetuation of the predominately male, industrial work force as the engine of revolutionary change, even as the centrality of this sort of large, centralized factory production was diminishing, or, to put it differently, despite ideological statements to the contrary, they were never able to successfully integrate the concerns of women and young people into the movement and give them a concrete social identity
the more anarchist influenced elements of autonomy (and, I would consider autonomy outside of Marxist-Leninism to be a manifestation of anarchism, despite the protestation of many of the participants to the contrary) possessed a broader, more inclusive, more participatory philosophy, but were actively suppressed by the state, the PCI and the unions, with the violence of the Red Brigades, a group that could fairly be described as Stalinist in its orientation, providing the pretext for their suppression in Italy
as for the relevance of anarchism today? neoliberalism has been slowly, but surely, unraveling the bonds of the nation state, and, if it continues, neoliberalism will reduce it to a mere shell, as the social programs that bind the public togeter are being dismantled, something will have to replace it if this process is not arrested, and that something will be some form of communal living which will emerge as a necessity to survive
it is doubtful that we will call it anarchism, but it will draw deeply upon the values, experience and experimentation of the anarchist tradition
I would also add that autonomy failed in Germany because the state remained too strong, while in Italy, it was more successful because of the social and economic turmoil of the time
Richard,
I think I found the thread where you discussed agrarian reform...was it late 2008? It seemed like the debate fizzled out/deteriorated though.
I do wonder if the reason the government has avoided a real deepening of the agrarian reform because it would provoke open class war in the streets.
Maxa: the explanation that I find somewhat convincing is that the Chavistas have been fearful that an aggressive agrarian reform would drive out foreign investment, note that even when businesses and land were seized and turned over to cooperatives, the regime was careful to pay compensation
also, I tend to believe that there has been an internal split among Chavistas, some believe in the need for agrarian reform, while others think like Ow, that the campesinos should be proletarianized, that industrial development should take precedence
I base these views on my perhaps outdated experience during my 2005 trip to Venezuela when I heard and saw things that supported these suppositions
but, you may be right, especially if such class conflict resulted in the disruption of food supplies in a country that already imports a lot of agricultural commodities
Estes, did you go to Barinas and asked around off-handedly to the pulpero and the vendedor de chicha, to the mechanic and the one working at the petrol station about the farms of the Chavez haciendas? And of other Chavistas in the area?
This could tell you a bit about land reform.
About autonomy in Italy: how was it successful? What has it achieved? Aldo Moro's murder and that kind of thing? Where is Italy today?
What public programmes are being dismantled where? Perhaps in the US, I do not see that happening here.
Sorry, you went from theory to nothing concrete in my eyes. One thing, in my humble opinion, that made socialism fail (OK, I know you will call it "state capitalism", never wanting to call it socialism) was the fact that a central government cannot effectively regulate complex societies.
I assume you want a bottom up approach. Can you be specific, please?
Richard,
Agricultural production needs less and less people. That is a fact unless you decide to 1) go back to the XIX century and 2) prohibit imports of agricultural products.
Venezuela imports nearly everything.
A huge amount of the population in Venezuela is kind of cutting each other's hair: services.
Try to equate the whole thing. People are not going back to the countryside (and mind: I am one of those Venezuelans who would like to see a countryside with life, cultural activity, less centralism, etc (I am to some respects for a system similar to what is in place in Germany with regards to de-centralization)
Just one remark: there is a lot to be done in the countryside, real latifundistas should pay higher taxes or give back the land, latifundistas that include a lot of high ranking Chavistas as well as Ancien Regime. There is a lot one can do to revitalize the countryside. I am all for making life in Delta Amacuro and Guárico more worthwhile: culturally, economically. Still: the huge majority of the Venezuelan population now is not going to till the land, no matter what you do.
Kepler: I'm not sure that we have much of an argument about agriculture. Sure, most people in an industrialized economy will not work in agriculture, but Venezuela still has land that is not being utilized for agricultural production, and unlike in other parts of the world, this land, once put to use, will employ a lot of people, and such employment may become essential to riding out the global recession
as to other questions: autonomists did not kill Aldo Moro, the Red Brigades did, and it is well known that they were vanguardist in the old Marxist-Leninist sense, if not Stalinist, and had no connection to the autonomists, even though their acts were used to suppress them
as for the curtailment of the Keynesian welfare state, it is being reduced almost everywhere except Venezuela and Bolivia, and perhaps a few other places, which is why you don't see it
but come up here to California, and it is easy to recognize, when people realize that they can't build a society around excess credit and financial speculation . . . it is going to eventually hit the fan
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