Santiago Dreaming
Our news tonight is saying California has declared a state of emergency. Where is Mr BW right now? California. Or, more precisely, in the airport at SF en route to Boston. I've told him to wash his hands even more frequently than normal. Am I over-reacting? 
No, anyone flying at anytime should wash their hands more than they normally do...of course he should also stop breathing for the duration of the flight just to be safe.
It's pandemic like in 1918:
In large U.S cities, more than 10,000 deaths per week were attributed to the virus. It is estimated that as many as 50% of the population was infected, and ~1% died. To compare, in "normal" (interpandemic) years, it is estimated that between 10-20% of the population is infected, with a .008% mortality.
The fact the current 'swine flu' has shown to be contagious is alarming. So far the virus has shown to have a 6% to 6.3% mortality rate. It may not seem like much, but please consider the following: The deadly influenza panic in 1918 had a mortality rate of under 1%.
This virus went on to kill tens of thousands of healthy people a day in large cities and up to 100 million people world wide.
Viruses, like this strain of swine flu, kill their host by over-stimulating active immune systems that are robust and healthy. That is why the victims in Mexico were between the ages of 20 and 45.
Some have said that no one in the United States have died from the virus, so we need not worry. Experts say it is only a matter of time. The virus is not prevalent enough to reach statistical significance in the United States, with only a handful of confirmed cases. 93.7% of all Mexicans with the virus recovered.
More cause for worry: The 1918 virus started off 'mild' before it mutated into a raging storm. It also does not mean we will see millions of deaths. It is too early to draw sweeping conclusions. Nevertheless, there is potential for a disastrous pandemic. If 50% of Americans catch this flu in the next two years, and the mortality rate stays at 6.3%, we would witness 20+ million deaths.
This strain of virus is more potent and more deadly than the virus that hammered the world in 1918 and 1919. Viruses come in waves. There are striking similarities to this virus and the virus that killed up to 100 million people in 1918. The first wave is historically more mild than the later waves.
In addition to this virus becoming more severe, it is mutating faster than previous virus that we have seen. In addition, this virus is nothing like we have ever seen before because it combines features from viruses natural in different parts of the globe. We are in uncharted territory.
If it follows the same path as the 1918 flu, we will see very damaging results. However, we must remember we are a global society now and the virus can spread quicker than we have ever witnessed in history. This is very concerning especially since the drugs we have now seem resistant.
While there have been no deaths in America, it is shadowed by the fact the common variable among the deaths seem to be age. While most American cases have involved the very young and very old (under 10 and over 50) the Mexican cases that ended fatally involved the robust and healthy (over 20 and under 45).
This virus kills the host by over-stimulating the immune system. The term that is used when the immune system over reacts is called a Cytokine Storm. It is usually fatal. During this “Storm” over 150 inflammatory mediators are released. This would account for the high mortality rate in 1918-19.
You put the victim toll in proper perspective.
Nonetheless, I would rather see our government on top of it trying to prevent an all out epidemic instead of the lack of preparedness shown by the previous administration when Hurricane Katrina was about to hit.
Darlene, I agreed with you, I would rather see our government stay on top of it, too. It's just that I don't think people should panic right now and Jordan's comment about the 1918 flu does not change my mind. The 1918 flu was as bad as Jordan has written but that does not mean this one could or will be the same. The disease may spread faster than in 1918 but communications and health care are better now and preventive measures, like immunization, are available. That makes a big difference.
You are right, la peregrina. Panic does no good and makes things worse. I think the government is doing it just right. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. I am proud of our former governor, Janet Napolitino.
I must have the Swine Flu. I can't stop eating like a pig!
Commenting by HaloScan
