Looks like a federal election with a majority for Harper, no?
The poll that SAO links to was taken before the Quebec election, so I don't think it is relevant here.
And even it shows the Tories ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, but at only 25% in the province (which is about what they had in the 2006 election).
If the Quebec election suggests the Conservatives might make further gains there in a new federal election, then, yes, a majority is within reach (and might not require the 40% the article says they would need nationally).
Let's see what polls show over the next month or two.
One thing the Quebec election showed is how quickly things can change during an election campaign.
I still think that no one will win a majority federally unless the BQ is killed off. I suppose that looks likelier today than ever, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Though I'm old enough to remember and know better, I'd forgotten that a generation ago, a significant chunk of Quebeckers used to vote Union Nationale provincially and Creditiste federally. Seems a lot of the same folks, or their kinfolk, are voting ADQ and CPC.
A friend of mine, a fellow westerner by birth, moved to (rural) Quebec in the early 1990s and told me shortly after that if the Reform party could ever overcome the language barrier and the perception that they were anti-Quebec, there were plenty o' votes to be got there. I think his riding went ADQ this week.
Even in the days of Manning (and the day of Day), the Reform-Alliance party had its best Quebec showings in the deeply francophone (now) ADQ areas centered on Quebec City.
Andy, you're mostly right.
In 1997, Reform ran in about 10 ridings in the province, never doing better than 4th and never getting more than 1556 votes (in Lac-St.-Louis, on the Island of Montreal). But its second-best was in Quebec east (1483 votes.)
The 2000 results lend your claim much stronger support: the Alliance ran in almost all ridings, and got more than 10% in 11 of them, and over 15 in 3: 15.4 (8800 votes) in Charlesbourg (metro Quebec City), 15.3 (6700 votes) in Portneuf (in the Quebec City region broadly defined), and 15.2 (8600 votes) in Quebec-East. Note also 9100 votes (14.5%) in Levis (metro Quebec City).
I wasn't expecting to get fact-checked. This is one high-end blog! Luckily my vague memory was at least partly veridical.
The minions do their best to keep the Lord's hedges trimmed, as it were.
Someone should do a study comparing the length of a blog post with the number of comments it typically attracts.
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