Politics1.com

First. Go Democrats!!!


silver medal


third
demorats we'll beat them once we hav a man on message


Another Minnesota prayer answered. First, Dayton retires. Now, Rod Grams announces his comeback bid! Lets just hope MN GOPers fall for it! GO DFL!!!!


How about JESSE V for a nice indy MN senate run in 06? I think arnold will make it to the senate in 2010, run for guv again in 06 and than terminate boxer in 2010, maybe jesse can be senator first ala being guv.


OTHER POLITICAL NEWS:

Rep. Jim Davis (D-Tampa) announced he will run for FL Gov yesterday. At same time, Lawton "Bud" Chiles III formally kicked off his campaign in downtown Orlando. Not to be left out, State Sen. Rod Smith (D-Gainesville) announced the hiring of one of NC Gov Mike Easley's political consultants to run his Gubernatorial bid. Three great candidates. It's hard for us FL Dems to choose. I have to go with Davis, though, as he is my congressman. Plus has a stronger base and resume. I still contend, however, that this race may never come to be as Bob Graham will enter at the last minute, causing these three to exit. We actually have an embarressment of riches here!

Heard from South Carloina that incumbent GOP Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer will face a strong challenge from Mike Campbell, son of ex-Gov. Carroll Campbell, in next years Republican primary. Look for this to be a nasty fight!


I didn't think Franken would run.

And Ron, I'll mention it again too, Feingold in 2008!


Jesse Ventura would HATE being in the senate. It is THE CLUB after all, he he certainly would not like that atmosphere. He didn't even like being gov that much. Plus, he would have to move to DC another thing he would hate. Ditto Arnold, by 10 he will have tired of politics having quenshed his political thirst. He will never run for senate. Plus, by then he will no longer be coasting on fame, and actually have a record to defend!


I support Chief Justice Roy Moore for President in 2008.


I think Franken would rather run against Sen. Accident in 2008 although I think either of Wellstone's Sons would wipe the floor with him....

Alan Page in 2006


I wish Russ Feingold a long and prosperous career in the US Senate. Perhaps he will be a leader in passing some of President Bayh's agenda!


I support Justice Roy Moore for a labotomy in 2008!

David Wellstone is destined to retake his dads seat in 2008!


I think Bayh will be the Ed Muskie of 2008.


Paul, don't say that


Please, Ed Muskie was a great guy, but comm'on


I don't see Franken running for office, I think he would be perceived as just a comedian and satirist.

Of course, what was Arnold? A bad "B" movie actor.

As was Reagan, of course.

So maybe we should count Franken out just yet!


Franken is talented at what he does, so he should stick to that. The opposite was true for the late Sonny Bono of course.


Sunlover1, Bayh is not my first choice, but if he got the nomination, I'd support him, as I imagine you would support Feingold.

But I think Bayh will not prove a good candidate, he is too dull.


If we are going to nominate Bayh, why not try to talk Reublicans Guliani or Colin Powell into running atleast they are more progressive.

Maybe we can have a Bayh/Lieberman ticket that way the GOP would have both spots on the ballot.


I meant we "should not" count Franken out, although, again, I doubt if he will run in 2008.


Bayh/Lieberman, now that would be an exciting ticket! LOLOLOL


I would support Feingold, hell I supported Kerry (and even as 14 year old passed out fliers for Mondale-Ferraro in 84), but don't think he is the best choice. Bayh has both the executive experience from two terms as gov of Indiana, and Washington experience as being a senator for a decade.


The latter makes Bayh a good bet. Plus, he is a moderate from the mid-west.

I would love to see Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) as his VP.


Sunlover1, well, we will see. At this point, I think Edwards and Clinton are the frontrunners, but it's a long way off.


Sunlover1, Feingold is also from the Midwest, and from a more Democratic state.


no talk of Bill Richardson? Richardson/bayh is the best ticket, just need to carry all of kerry's state's and NMex and Ind to get 269. Yeah, jesse V probably wouldn't like the senate but hey maybe he is bored. Arnold on the other hand might like the DC scene.


It's too bad Franken didn't run - that would have made that a hilarious race.


Maybe, though, he still will run, in the future. Franken for president anyone?


Exactly, Bayh is from a gop state but has won it five times now already. He would carry Ohio, and maybe KY, and certainly MO. Feingold is a little to liberal for national office. Wisconsin is different from the rest of the mid-west. It is not as conservative. The LaFollette progressive tradition, Milwaukee socialists, ect. Wisconsin Dems are closer to Massachusttes Dems, than they are to Missouri Dems.


Lets pick a WINNER next time folks.


Petedal...let's heed Bill Clinton's message in today's Washington Post and reserve our criticism for the Republicans...last time I looked, Bayh had a D next to his name. Stop eating our young.

Paul...I didn't get the comparison with Bayh and Muskie...except for both being moderates...Muskie was the front-runner in 72 before he imploded...Bayh certainly isn't. Muskie had a temper and while I don't know enough about Bayh...emotional is not a word I see associated with him.


A winning D ticket would be any combination of:

Ford/Tennesse
Warner/Virginia
Bayh/Indiana
Richardson/New Mexico


Bayh is bland but may be the best candidate. He has probably made some people very disapointed in his home state with his vote against Condoleeza Rice. However, he has six years to make them forget. He could put Indiana in the Dem column which, in itself, could make a big difference in the race. Richardson is very moderate as well so liberals on this blog may not be as happy with him. No Dem is going to win being angry and stridently liberal. Check out my blog for more analysis of P2008


Feingold is interesting because even though he is liberal, he gets along well with the other side and could appeal to people as a "straight shooter"
At this point I would have Feingold and Bayh in the top tier of potential candidates along with (but slightly below) Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Edwards
Biden and maybe Dodd I would also include along with Richardson


Ed Muskie was a decent senator from a small state, but wasn't really first string material. He was only the frontrunner in 72 because he was HHH VP running mate in 68. Not the best choice then either (Sen. J. William Fulbright for VP would have been much better ... a moderate, anti-war, southerner.) Muskie later flopped as Carter's Sec. of State. Evan Bayh is first string material!


In the end Hillary won't run. She will enjoy a long career in the senate a la Ted Kennedy. Edwards was a flash in the pan. Little substance, and less experience. Gore may run, but he is a has been.


Kerry should concentrate on getting his step-son Chris Heinz elected to Congress from Pennsylvania.


I just love it that the White House let someone in under a fake name. Are they worried that their press secretary isn't up to the job? Does he need someone to throw him a lifeline when he's up there struggling?

At least they didn't pay "Gannon" off like they did with Armstrong Williams and Maggie Gallagher. But I wonder, how did he get up there without someone's knowledge? And how did he get classified CIA documents regarding Valerie Plume to sully Joe Wilson's name? I wonder.


I personally think this is what it will look like in 2006. In Texas it will be a tough three way nasty republican primary with Gov. Perry, Sen. Hutchison, and Comproller Strayhorn. There will be a run-off between Hutchison and Perry,but Hutchison will win the runoff to face John Sharp in the general election. It will be a close race. In the senate race it will be Lt. Gov David Dewhurst against either Chet Edwards or Charlie Stenholm.
In Calif. Arnold Swattzernegger will be unopposed and he will challend either Rob Reiner or Cruz Bustamante. Arnold will win re-election easily. Sen. Dianna Feinstein will face either Richard Reirdan or another unknown republican. In Minn. it will be Tim Pawlenty against Skip Humphery in the Gov's race. In the senate race it will be Rod Grahams against Roger Moe. That is how 2006 looks so far.


John Edwards will run in 2008 and I will enjoy watching him get absolutely hammered by far more experienced candidates in the democratic primaries. John Edwards was a huge dissapointment who added nothing to the vice presidential ticket, may he fade away into obscurity.


Daniel, your about right on Texas, but way off on every thing else. AG Bill Locklyer will be the D sacrificial lamb to Arnold. I doubt Riordan will run for anything. Some hapless GOP congressman will likely be thrown against Feinstein. Skip Humphrey WILL NEVER RUN FOR OFFICE AGAIN!!!! Neither will his ex-running mate Roger Moe. It's way to early to know who the D's will nominate in those two races, but trust me, it WONT be Skip, or Moe.


Also in 2006 George Pataki will run,but he will be defeated by Rudy Giulani in the primaries,but in the general race it will be to close to call between Giulani and Spitzer.
In 2008 the democratic primaries will consist of Evan Bayh(Ind), John Edwards(NC), Joe Biden(DE), John Kerry(MA), Chris Dodd(CT), Wesley Clark(AR),Russ Feingold,and Al Sharpton. Also Dennis Kuninich, Hillary Clinton, and Lyndon LaRouche may all try for the nomination. In the 2008 Republican primaries it will be John McCain, Trent Lott, Rudy Giulani, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Norm Coleman, and George Pataki.


I don't think hilary would be where she is if she isn't the type of person who wouldn't run in 08. YEt, you can make a nice case for her not running in 08, it would be quite nasty. If she doesn't run in 08 and a dem wins, i think she could become AG or get supreme court seat, spitzer could appoint bill to her senate seat. IF a repub wins in 08, she would only be 64 in 2012 and after 12 years of repubs in the white house and 2 failed dem camps, i think it would be much easier for her to win in 2012.


Pataki and Giuliani will not run against each other. More likely, Pataki will be discouraged from running again by the others in the party.


Whats really funny is that Hillary is actually not all that liberal. Her voting record is quite moderate. She is to the right of her NY colleague Chuck Shummer. And certainly to the right of Ted K. Her image is, however, tainted as liberal, plus all the baggage and personal scandals of Bill haunt her.


A sports journalist friend of mine from the Grand Rapids area sent me an unusual newspaper article...it seems that the powers-that-be are placing a rush on completing what will be the final resting place for Gerald Ford. I know that he is nearly 92 years. I read recently that he was 'ailing.'


Pataki's political career is just about over. Guiliani is already campaigning for prez 08, so neither will be running statewide in 06.


How far have Dems fallen when we are willing to promote a boring, fairly unknown Senator from a small state who does not even share many of the values that should make us Dems (like being progressive).

I mean we have to do better than that....and don't make the Clinton Comparison....He atleast was anything but boring.


Sorry to hear about Jerry Ford. He is a decent guy, brought the country through a time of healing.


"If she doesn't run in 08 and a dem wins, i think she could become AG or get supreme court seat"

A supreme court seat? You've got to be joking. And doesn't the AG have to have some experience in law enforcement?

I do agree however that her "liberalism" get's overplayed by the Hannitys and Limbaughs of the world. They have hated her since day one because she didn't fit their traditional view of a first lady and actually dared to voice an opinion every now and again.

That being said, I don't want her being the nominee, because she won't win.


I don't get all this boring stuff about Bayh. He seems rather Kennedyesque to me. Young, good looking, yet with a wealth of governmental experience. If we nominate on carisma alone, Jesse Jackson would have been nominated years ago. People, please, what do you want this guy to do, cartwheels down Pennsylvania Avenue?? Bayh is a WINNER, like Clinton, but without all the scandals. This guy is as clean as a whistle. And not all Democrats identify themselves with the far left fringe. Myself included. We must be a big tent if we want to regain our past glory.


Mike B is right on the money!


All this prognosticating about the nominee is hugely pre-mature. Everybody and their cousin has an exploratory comittee these days. I put out feelers myself, but my polling tells me that a) I wouldn't play well in the south, b) I'm not old enough, and c)nobody has ever heard of me. We're still about 18 months away from knowing who the candidates are on either side. Many people will rise and fall in that time.


Also, it doens't matter if we nominate Evan Bayh, Joe Lieberman or the Pope, any democratic candidate is going to get the "liberal" label hammered in to them by the GOP spin machine anyway, so we might as well nominate who we think will be the best president.


True, we should concentrate on picking up 4-5 governorships, 2-3 senate seats and 5-7 House seats in 06.


The term liberal, as far as the Republican powers that be are concerned is synonymous with the term democrat. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or naive.


hillary's dream from her law school days was to get on the supreme court. After 8+ years in the senate i don't think she would get voted down by that body and i would think the clinton political machine would lobby hard the incoming dem prez to appoint her if this situation occurred. As for AG, it can be anybody but sec of Education might have been better guess.


Whatever happened to report of a US Senator who was going to outed as gay? This was a while back...


p, Supreme Court nominees are almost invariably judges of high esteem, with many years of experience in a high level court. Hillary has never been a judge and hasn't even practiced law in the past decade and a half. No way she even gets nominated.

But let's assume that none of that matters. You actually think that the Republicans would stand for HILLARY CLINTON as a nomination for ANYTHING? She might not be the person Republicans hate the most, but any list of the top 5 has to have her on it. A Republican majority in the Senate will NEVER confirm her, and a Republican minority in the Senate (one can dream) will fillibuster her nomination until the cows come home.


I don't think Bayh is all that boring, but a little electricity certainly wouldn't hurt him out on the hustings. Far from being boring Midwestern hayseeds, Indiana's statewide officials have usually had a tendency toward the dry and cerebral (Dick Lugar, for example). For whatever reason, this combination of traits is seen as admirable and thoughtful in GOP candidates (see Bush 41) but somehow unctious and opportunisitc in DEM candidates (see Al Gore) . So, while Mike_B is right that are inevitable reductions any DEM candidate would have to contend with, it goes far beyond simple labels of "liberal" or "conservative".


What was the Jerry Ford referance?

Can't find it on any news sites....but Arthur Miller did pass away...Married to Marilyn Monroe at one time which is way cool.


If a Democratic Presidet were to nominate Hillary to the SC, Sean Hannity's head might explode.

Wait, come to think of it, I have hear worse ideas...


gay senator? probably the most conservative member. Maybe drudge would know, heck, probably dating drudge.


The only outing of a gay senator that I recall was the postumous outing of Senator David Ignatious Walsh (D-MA), years after his death.


Supreme Court nominations post-Bork rely extensively on paper-trails and jurisprudencial vetting, neither of which would be possible with a Hillary nomination and which would make it subject to politically expensive scrutiny. I think the last pol who was every seriously considered for a Supreme Court position was Mario Cuomo (at least slightly plausible since he at least used to teach law school), but even he felt that he wouldn't be all that effective as a justice.


Yea, Miller said basically that Marilyn drove him nuts!


That's what all of "After the Fall" was about . . .


Hillary has the same chance of serving on the high court as Roy Moore does ... NONE


Come on Ron, do you really think Russ Feingold can really win? Do you think that the only US Senator to vote against the Patriot Act can really survive GOP smears and lies and distortions? No, he cannot. Mary Landrieu in 2008!


It may have been Hillary's dream to be on the Supreme Court when she was younger, but it's also my dream to play in the NBA. They are both equally likely to happen.


I did some research and it turns out that Gerald Ford is in fact... Still Alive!

I'm not sure what sunlover is talking about but if Ford did in fact die, it is such a non-story that it hasn't even been covered on the prestigious internet.


Does anyone else remember the old "Gerald Ford died today" SNL skit?


No real News on Jerry Ford, just some speculation - Have a sprotwswriter friend from Grand Rapids Michigan who tells me that there is a rush on completing what will be the final resting place for Gerald Ford. He has been ill lately and he did not attend the inauguration


A former president of the united states dying is hardly a non-story, Mike B. I did not say he died, I said that sources tell me a rush has taken place to complete his final resting place in Grand Rapids, Michigan


Ford is alive, I was just reponding to another post concerning his tomb preparations in Michigan.


He didn't attend the Clinton Library Opening either


I'm not saying it was a non-story. It was a joke that was intended to make the point that he was alive. Sunlover posted above that he was "sorry to hear about Jerry Ford." My response was posted before you made your post about the resting place.


Oh, sorry, I didn't read up far enough to see about the tomb.


I would not have believed a story about John Edwards running again in 2008, but...

Last Saturday night I was watching C-SPAN (oh, what an exciting life I lead, but a 3-mo-old will get ya there) and what did I behold, but a certain smarmy, grinning former VP nominee and son-of-a-millworker being followed around the New Hampshire Democratic [something-or-other]'s 100th anniversary celebration by the C-SPAN camera crew, while the logo in the bottom right corner of the screen said "Road to the White House 2008"....


Gerald Ford is alive ( I think it would be a major story if he was not), and last I heard doing relatively well for a man his age. He does not make many public appearances any more or travel much outside of California because of his advanced age but I don't think there is any validity to any rumor that he is on his death bed or anything like that.


Petedal...educate me...what votes has Bayh mande that are different than Hillary? They both supported the war and Bayh opposed at least some of W's tax cuts (there were so many) and I assume Hilary opposed them also.

So please educate me on the difference between bayh's record and Hillary's.


TOP 10 HOUSE DISTRICTS DEMS SHOULD TARGET:

1. Florida 10 (likely retirement)
2. Minnesota 6 (open seat)
3. New York 29 (weirdo freshman)
4. Louisiana 7 (GOP Freshman)
5. Indiana 9 (GOP Freshman)
6. Nevada 3 (Competitive District)
7. New Jersey 7 (ditto above)
8. Wisconsin 8 (Open seat)
9. Pennsylvania 4 (with C. Heinz)
10. North Carolina 11 (always competive incumbent)


I am pretty confident that Chris Heinz will not be running for Congress.


I have not heard anything about Bill Young retiring in FL, but I believe that is probably a pretty Republican district on the Congressional level.


10 1/2. Colorado 7 (Competitive District)


I am going to go look and see if I can make a short list of top endangered Dem House seats.

Keep in mind, Dems need to win a heck of a lot more GOP seats and hold their own to win a majority.


Actually, Young's district has been gradually moving Democratic over the past decade and a half. St. Pete is no longer strong GOP territory.


I think Democrats who are hoping for a Grams primary victory in Minnesota are going to come away disappointed. I did read where Mark Kennedy is planning to announce his candidacy, I think today. He is the most likely Republican nominee. If I had to make a guess on the Democrat nominee, I'd guess Betty McCollum, with Allan Page as a potential dark horse.


Even my GOP friends here in the Bay Area admitt that his seat will likely go Dem when Young retires.


I won't be running for President on the Constitution Party ticket. I hope a true conservative challenges Arnold in the Cali primaries, even if he/she loses. I fully expect a primary challenge to Bredesen in Tenn, even though Bredesen seems to be a dark-horse candidate for Pres in 08. (i'm thinking actually VP when the dust clears). Too many candidates for Senate in TN 06, but Ford could win. I agree with the above poster about Edwards, he was a media creation of the highest order - finishing consistently 4th or lower until Gephardt & Dean BOTH dropped out. Roy Moore is probably the next Gov of Alabama - he'll annihilate Riley in primaries - but he might lose the General. Either way, I imagine that's where he's running rather than POTUS. Maybe Ron can have Feingold/McCain in 08 - even though in some ways I think Mc may actually be more conservative than Bush.


I decided to not make the list. It will be easier to do in 2006.

Melissa Bean is a goner though.


To Barker:

"I personally think this is what it will look like in 2006. In Texas it will be a tough three way nasty republican primary with Gov. Perry, Sen. Hutchison, and Comproller Strayhorn. There will be a run-off between Hutchison and Perry,but Hutchison will win the runoff to face John Sharp in the general election. It will be a close race. In the senate race it will be Lt. Gov David Dewhurst against either Chet Edwards or Charlie Stenholm."

That actually makes a little sense, though I think Dewhurst would get a stiff challenge from Henry Bonilla or Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams. I wouldn't be surprised frankly if Karl Rove boosted Williams as the Republican answer to Barack Obama.

"In Calif. Arnold Swattzernegger will be unopposed and he will challend either Rob Reiner or Cruz Bustamante. Arnold will win re-election easily."

Whoever said that Bill Lockyer will likely be the sacrificial lamb is more likely correct on the opponent, though Schwarzenegger will yes, win in a landslide.

"Sen. Dianna Feinstein will face either Richard Reirdan or another unknown republican."

Some hapless State Rep. or State Senator probably.

"In Minn. it will be Tim Pawlenty against Skip Humphery in the Gov's race. In the senate race it will be Rod Grahams against Roger Moe. That is how 2006 looks so far."

Tim Pawlenty versus DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch is more likely, and I don't think Rod Grams will get the nod. Grams got whupped by Dayton in 2000 and it's not wise to put up a loser. Look for Congressman Mark Kennedy as the Republican opponent. So far as the DFL goes, Roger Moe has a chance but I think there will be a DFL push for Alan Page or one of the Wellstone sons if they're smart.


Corey, you always have to be right, but I have it from a good source in the media that his health is declining, but there again you know everything


jsb, I'm interested in your thoughts on primary challengers for Bredesen in TN. It does seem that he's liked better by Republicans than by Democrats right now.


Who's health are we talking about Ford? Bill Young?


"2. Minnesota 6 (open seat)"

Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer will likely run for that seat, and likely win, if Kennedy runs for the Senate.

"3. New York 29 (weirdo freshman)"

Weirdo freshman perhaps, but in a firmly Republican district. The voters knew he was odd when they put him in and Kuhl has some time to straighten out his image.

"4. Louisiana 7 (GOP Freshman)"

I'm from Louisiana, know that area well, and can say without hesitation on the Dems' chances to take Boustany out: Not A Chance.

"8. Wisconsin 8 (Open seat)"

Isn't that a firmly Republican district?

"9. Pennsylvania 4 (with C. Heinz)"

Isn't that also a firmly Republican district?

"10. North Carolina 11 (always competive incumbent)"

Maybe North Carolina 8 but so far as 11, again, a firmly Republican district.

I don't know much about Florida 10 but I think Gore won that district in 2000 so you may be right there.

"Melissa Bean is a goner though."

Pretty much, yeah.


Mornin' gang.

Ron, you couldn't POSSIBLY be insinuating something with that reporter, could you?

Shawn, in about four years, this is going to be a firm Bullmoose district.


Sunlover1, WI progressives are much different from MA liberals. They're both great in my opinion, but the base is different.


And I don't think Bayh would necessarily carry IN as a Pres candidate.


Bayh would not carry Indiana.

paul and I agree on something!


What I was refering to earlier, From Politics1, 9-10-04:

"News tip: The same gay activist who last week successfully outed two-term Congressman Ed Schrock (R-VA) as gay is apparently on the verge of outing a high-ranking member of the US House GOP Leadership as gay next week."

Nothing ever came about from this, did it?


http://www.wsws.org/articles/200...5/faa- f11.shtml

Knowledge is power.


...and apparently, Intelligence isn't.


Shawn :

Louisiana 7 is back in play if Chris John makes a comeback. Dems only lost this seat because of extreme friction between Dem candidates. Cravens cost us the seat.

NC 11 - is hardly safe GOP, Taylor's numbers were down again in 2004.

NY 29 - Dems had a weak nominee in 04. Better candidate could give incumbent a run for his money.

Minnesota 6 was held by a Dem before Kennedy.


Let me say, I'm sorry. For some reason, I was being a real asshole yesterday. I don't know what it was. Once again, I apologize.

Forgive me, comrades.


I know Corey hates Melissa Bean, but I think she stands a 50-50 chance at re-election. Rham Emanuel will move heaven and earth to keep her in congress. Plus, Ill is trending Dem, despite Blago, so GOPers should concentrate on protecting Hyde, Weller, and Kirk.


I'm going to try to get Bill Ayers to take on ol' Charlie here.


Evan Bayh WOULD win Indiana! I'd bet everything I got on that.


http://www.wsws.org/articles/200.../guan- f11.shtml

Another good reason for an independant court. Thing's like this don't happen in Fascist or Nationalist nations, like Stalin's USSR.

http://host3.uscourts.gov/02-299b.pdf

For the compleate opinion of Judge Joyce Hens Green.


Sunlover, I do not "hate" Melissa Bean. However, anyone who understands the make-up of the district knows that she has far less than a 50 percent shot. I would say 25 percent at most.

Weller is all but safe. Henry Hyde would win too, but it looks like he is going to be stepping down, and that district would easily elect a Republican.

The only district among those that you mention that is Democrat leaning is the Mark Kirk district, where I live. As long as Kirk is running for that seat, he is extremely safe. He has beaten opponents by a 2-1 margin in his last two campaigns.


I think the Dems need to step away from the Center. They need to seperate themselves away from the Religious Right and the Neo-Cons.


Sure Rahm Emanuel would like to keep Bean in Congress, but he is smart enough to know that one particular race may be a lost cause, and turn his resources elsewhere throughout the country.

Besides for Bean, all other districts in Illinois should be fairly easily won by the current incumbent party.


There has been a many a GOP Congressmen who win in Dem districts in a fluke (like Bean) and go on to hold them for years, so I don't see why the same might not be true for Bean. There is power in incumbency. Perhaps hate was too strong, but "not crazy about" would put it better.


How many GOP Congressmen represent Democratic majority districts. Probably 20-30, mostly in the south!


Of Course Hillary and Edwards can both forget the nomination if Al Gore returns with a Nixonlike comeback, as is expected of him.


Sri Lanki is steping straight into another disaster. E. Kaushalyan, the leader of the Libertarian Tigers
of Tamil Eelam, was assassinated on Monday. The peace talks, compleated just two little years ago, could be thrown out the window compleately.

The Sri Lanken President has condimed the act, but the LTTE calls it an "act of government suppression."

I have respect for President Kumaratunga. I respect the LTTE cause. I only pray Athenia to bless them with the wisdom not to let this escelate.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/200.../sril- 11f.shtml


Sunlover, would you like to offer an example of a GOP fluke who has stayed in Congress for years?


I think the Bean victory in 2004 has the most in common with Michael Patrick Flanagan who beat Dan Rostenkowski in Chicago in 1994. Flanagan was well liked by just about everyone during his two years in Congress but he still lost in a landslide when he tried to win a second term.

I am not sure what you are saying about GOP Congressman representing Dem districts.

I would bet that there is not one GOP Congressman in the South who represents a Congressional district won by Gore or Kerry.

IL 8 goes heavily GOP on the Presidential level.


Bean just cannot survive in that district.


Bill Young may be the only one in 2000.


Corey, Actually IL 8 is not as heavily dem as IL 6 which is made up of a strong Dupage County Republican bench.


Al, John, or Billery.

If I had to choose, I'd go with John, seeing as we're both Ol' North Staters. But I could vote GOP if they nominate a Liberal/Libertarian/Moderate. I'll probley vote Socialist Equality or Socialist. Mabey an indie. Or Green.


I mean heavily rep*


IL 6 and IL 8 are comparable, IL 6 is slightly more so though.

Nonetheless, Bean is not going to be able to win in that district, barring a complete and total surprise factor.


Ragnar would waste his vote on a party that stands no real chance in hell of winning, atleast unless the law is changed by current standards.


SBC buying AT&T for $16 billion—25,000 telecommunications jobs to go.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/200...5/sbc- f11.shtml

Remember Charlie Chaplen?

http://www.wsws.org/articles/200.../chur- f11.shtml

Okay, that's enough Socialism for today.


Try Clay Shaw and Mark Foley in 2000 as well


Yeah but in order for Bean to have won 2004 against Crane shewas carrying her message around the district anti-incumbent wise against an incumbent who has ignored the district for along time.

Isnt it true that Bean after twice onthe ballot will eventually be more familiar to thevoters?


Hey, if both choices are good (Say, Clark and Gulliani), I'm going to vote for my ideology, which happens to be Democratic Socialism/Trotskyism, with a dash of Libertarian.


All you do is have to say that you will fight for the voters of your district and vote with them 100% of the time to get yourself atleast 4 or 5 terms to safe incumbency in the House.

If Bean does that, theres no stopping her limits.


Are you a Libertarian Socialist Ragnar? Ron has a page for Libertarian Socialists to go to an organization on his Issues-Libertarian Sites page.


I'm astounded ... In fifteen years or so active in politics I have seen district after district that were once held by Dems, and once they elect a GOPer they never come back!! This is especially true in the FL legislature. It is really frustrating. A long shot GOP candidate picks off a seat in a special election, or because of a troubled incumbent, or some such thing. They are usually narrowly re-elected the first time, and then hold the seat for years. Even after they have retired, the district remains GOP.


Three cases that come to mind in Congress were Bill Dickinson in Alabama, Newt Gingrich in Georgia, and Jay Dickey in Arkansas. They were flukes that stayed for years, decades in Dickinson's case.


Bean is either going to be running against a veteran state legislator or a multi-millionaire of some sort who will vastly outspend her.

Yes, incumbency helps her to an extent, as it did for Michael Patrick Flanagan, but it is not going to be enough.

Her victory over Crane was about Crane. Another Republican is going to have a huge edge. Not to mention, the lower turnout that a midterm has as opposed to a Presidential year. The local GOP organizations in that CD are far more sophisticated and organized than the local Dem organizations, and that would of course only benefit Republicans, the lower the turnout is.

While Bean is not a raving liberal, she is going to have to take issues that the district opposes, such as her first vote, when she voted against a Chicago exurban area Representative to be Speaker of the House.

Melissa Bean is without a doubt, the most vulnerable incumbent of either party anywhere in the nation, be it House, Senate, or Governor.

I am curious to hear what analogy Sunlover wants to draw regarding his contention that there are many GOP Congressman who won in heavily Dem districts and went on to serve for a long time.

What GOP Rep. and district is he comparing with Bean and IL 8?

I am going to lunch very soon, but will check in later.


Hell Bean might even be there for as long as Phil Crane, and then some GOPer named Corey will knock her off with another anti-incumbent streak.

LOL. Just kidding Corey. But Sunlover1 does have a point there.


I'm not saying Dists carried by Kerry or Gore, but Dists that are either Dem by registration, or D by tradition. These dists that have Dem state Sens, Sheriffs, county auditors, county commissioners, ect., yet elect GOP Congressmen, like Phil Gingerly for example.


Well Jay Dickey was defeated after just a few terms, but I am pretty sure his district had voted for Reagan and Bush in 1988. There is no such analogy to be drawn with Dems competing on the Presidential level in IL 8. Gore and Kerry did not even come close to winning that district.

Wasn't Bill Dickinson in AL somebody who was elected in 1964? That is quite a long time ago, and you would need to chalk that up to southern realignment, and not any sort of a fluke.

Newt Gingrich's victory to Congress in 1978, was also a long time ago, and would have more to do with the movement of the South toward the GOP.

Yes, IL has been trending Democrat, but that trend has not hit the 8th district to any extent in which the Republican nominee should not be considered the overwhelming favorite.


Back later........


And IL has a Democratic makeup of the state right now. I am predicting that if Lahood in IL 18 goesfor Governor, His seat is going togo Democratic. That seat was held by a Dem for many years before him, and it will return to its natural roots, whether Lahood beats Blago or loses to Blago.


I think there are a good many more Dems in Beans Dist than GOPers in Rosty's old dist.


Districts in the south that are Dem by registration or tradition, or that elect local Dem officials, are because those are conservative Dems.

Those people register Dem, and they vote Republican on the federal level.

The analogy just does not fit with IL 8.

IL does not have registration by party, but the district elects Republicans to just about all levels of government. Furthermore, IL 8 has a great deal of social conservatism in it, that you would not find in a place like IL 10, which always elects GOP House members.


I don't really get the Gore-Nixon comparison. Yes, they were both former vice-presidents who lost their initial shots at the big prize to candidates who were eminently more likable, but that's about it.

Aside from his disastrous run for Governor of CA in 1962, Nixon conducted himself in a very dignified way. He was the conciliatory figure in the Goldwater debacle of 1964, and worked hard on behalf of GOP candidates in 1966, resulting in their considerable gains in the House. He had built up considerable goodwill and had chips to call in.

Gore, on the other hand, had an identity crisis (I know, we can argue that Nixon was always in one). He grew a beard, gained forty pounds, swung hard to the left, and started showing a passion that few people had seen out of him before. A passion that is so phony it is pathetic. His endorsement of Howard Dean did little to endear him to the party establishment, and I believe that many were rankled by his crude and classless treatment of Joe Lieberman.

Also, we live in a technological age that Nixon didn't live in. While I'm sure that Gore could rehabilitate his image very easily, he has a myriad of others (HRC, Edwards, Kerry, Bayh, Dean) who will be fighting for the cameras and their shot at the big prize. Somehow I don't think he's going to be all that welcomed by the party's congressional candidates in 2006.

That said, I'd like to see Gore do well should he run again. He is far superior to those I mentioned above, save Bayh, and he has some reasonable positions. I just wish he would be himself. Dull, boring, seldomly witty, but earnest. If the true Al Gore, the Al Gore of the late 80s and early 90s shows up in 2008, I might be tempted to vote for him. But if the Al Gore of late sticks around I hope he fades into the obscurity that I wish HRC, Kerry etc. were destined for.


The LaHood district was previously held by Republican Leader Bob Michel for many years, certainly not any Democrat.

That race would not be competitive. IL has 19 Congressional districts, and besides for Bean, none of the others 18 should be competitive.


As for Dem dists held by gopers, hell, Arizona 1, Nevada 3, and Gingerly's seat in GA were all supposed to be Dem, yet there are gopers holding those seats.


Daemon, I have nothing to do with that anti-Semetic asshole. And Libertarian Socialism is akin to anarchy, which is impossible.

No, I support a combonation of Economic Socialism (The government runs major industries with the democratic input of the workers) and Idealistic Socialism (The democraticly worker-run state) with a dash of Trotskyism (Internationalism and a single, national party, with various inner caucuses that nominate canidates for office).


Well, I am signing off for now.

The Bean district is the one right next door to me and I feel that I have a pretty good understanding of the dynamics of that area.

I guess we will just all have to wait and see. If you turn out to be right, I will be the first to salute you and when you see the results there, I would expect you will do the same to me.

I expect a very lively GOP primary a year from now and I have a lot of confidence about which party would be winning that race in November, 2006.

Bye for now.


Forget about Bean and Ill for a moment. My point is that usually when a goper wins a House seat held by a Dem it rarely reverts back. Thats my point. Many of these GOPers begin as flukes.


I'm a bit discombobulated. What is the date?


The 11th, inenit?


Well Corey, I will cede to you your local analysis on Bean. But, Bill Young's district is next to mine in Tampa Bay area. I am aware of the local dynamics here as well and feel that once Young retires, be that in 06, or 08, or when he crokes, the D's start off in a very good position. So, I'll take your local take, if you take mine!


Hey all, what's up?


Sunlover, what's up, mate? Who are you looking at in '08?


'Sup, sku.


EVAN BAYH 2008 .... The GOP's worst nightmere!


Man you guys move to fast for me sometimes....

To answer FOB...first I was not comparing him to Sen. Clinton

Why I consider Evan Bayh less than desirible

Member of the DLC--which is good enough for me

Terrible at best on reproductive rights issues.

Voted for the Bush admistration Energy plan that was nothing more than a freebie for corperate America

Voted with corperationas and against consumers in trying to recontruct personal bankruptcy laws.

As Governor, might as well have been Tommy Thompson on welfare reform and W when it came to the Death Penalty....so that is just some of the places I disagree with him and the basis of my value of his worthiness for my vote as a progressive.


Corey: I would like your input as to the possibility of Illinois 3 being in play....I would think that the way they stole the seat for lipper jr....plus the conservative nature of many of the D voters in the district could be a combo that could make a viable Repub strong there>


I have to say, I'm with Ron on Feingold in '08.

I like the idea of Hillary, just because it would make the GOP crazy, and she is probably my top choice of the major contenders (in which I would include Kerry, Gore and Edwards).


Good news for all of you tranny golfers hoping to get a spot in this year's Women's British Open. I know that there are a lot of you out there, and your dreams have finally come through. The Ladies Golf Union, or the LGU, changed their rules and trannys are now allowed to tee it up in the Women's British Open.

The switch was made after our old friend Mianne Bagger became the first tranny to play on the ladies euro tour. This is outstanding. Not for golf, but for freak shows. Now that we have half women half men playing in sporting events, how long until lobster boy gets a sponsor’s exemption? How long until the guy with two heads gets a spot in the field? This is great.

All of those people that were confined to carnivals and sideshows now get to play professional sports.

Sadly, the American LPGA Tour isn’t as progressive as the LGU and they still prohibit tranny’s from playing on that tour. How backwards of them. How last century.

If Mianne, ‘I used to have a’ Bagger wants to play on the tour and she has the game, then she should be allowed to play, regardless of what equipment she has sandblasted off in recent years. She is a woman now, so let her play. If guys on tour that can’t cut it anymore want to take the ultimate step, then they should be allowed to. Can’t keep your card on tour? Go see a special doctor in Sweden and show up at the Women's British Open and make your fortune. Good for you Euros, you are way out ahead of the curve on this one.


And Corey:
Noone thought Jim Douglas would win asecond term, or atleast not as big ashe did, considering the conditions that hecame to office in 2002. There are reprimands, regardless of IL 8. And those reprimands usually say that incumbents have an advantage.

Yes Melissa Bean may be the incumbent now and just cannot give an "antiincumbent" mood, But her face is also not as old as Phil Crane was to the voters, so the anti-incumbent mood could still work for her atleast for a few terms.


Fiengold has a solid New Deal Liberal record behind him, and he displays good leadership. Hill, I'm not so sure about. I feel backstabbed by Kerry and Gore is too centrist. While I was more of a Dean/Clark guy in the primarys, my family supported homeboy Edwards, who's alright.

This is the question that annoyed the hell out of everyone yesterday, 'cus I kept posting it, 'cus I'm an ass.

Fiengold/Vilsak (Dems)
v.
McCain/Gulliani (Repubs)
v.
Clark/Powell (Indies)?

Who'd you cast your ballot for?


Sun,

What is so attractive about Bayh? I haven't caught that bug, I guess. I mean, everywhere, I hear "Bayh, Bayh, Bayh." What is it? Enlighten me.


I'd clearly go Dem there. As I said, Feingold's my top choice.

No way the GOP will nominate McCain and Giulianni, the right would rebel. Frankly, I doubt either of them will make it on the ticket.


Kerry needs to man up.

I was a big supporter of the man and I thought he'd be a great president.

Problem is he was such a danm panzy. He needs some balls. When someone goes after your military record like that.

It's go time. Especially when they don't even have one.

And we all know that Bush went after him. He's the head cheese. He calls the shots.

And those stories about Bush, went through K-Dog.

Kerry needed to show he was a man. He didn't. He lost.

Balls for Kerry or just get out of the way.

So 2008- Kerry can Fagettaboutit!!!!!!!


I'm not a DLC member, but have friends who are.


russ and tom....no brainer,

I know Vilsak having worked for him and know people who worked for the good senator and away from idelogy (sp?) they are two very decent men...as I believe McCain, Powell and Clark are.


Ragnar, I agree that Bayh is a lot of hype. I guess the DLCers have latched onto him, but he's a huge snooze and would get crushed in an election.

The problem with centrists is they don't know how to fight. Give me a Dean or Feingold anyday.


I agree, Anon, Kerry was a wimp. But not for the same reason. Regular bloggers have gotten sick of me bringing it up, but there is over three-hundred-thousand more votes than registered voters. And Kerry didn't do shit about it.


Ragnar, you can actually vote in '08, right? You must be looking forward to that.


In the above situation, my party, the Bullmooses, which I chair, will back the Indie team.

Rock on, brothers!

Gods, I wish McCain had run as an indie.


Yea, man. It's gonna be great. My voice will finnaly count.


My mom's trying to get me active in the Dems. I've given it serious thought, but I think it'd be better to try and make a powerful 3rd party insted of selling out, somewhat.

Vote Bullmoose!

Dispite my Bolshivik leanings, my party isn't a Socialist one. No, it is one of what I have termed a "Blended Ideology." As our slogan says, "We are a blend of Democrat and Republican, Reform and Green, Socialist and Libertarian."


sku is dead wrong. Remember the last guy the "DLCers" latched on to : BILL CLINTON and he WON!


Lockheed C-130s:

Lynn Cheney was on there board until 2002.

Lockeeds done prety well for themselves.

Heck they get contracts even though they supply the military with planes that have Cracked Wings.


AH! War Profiteering.

So whats more important?

War Effort?
Or Profit?

"Hey we're in it for the money!"

FOOLS!


Ahh, another day of freedom. That's the way to start a weekend off right.


Here here, Anon! Money for jobs, not war!


McCain/Fiengold: Just a campaign reform bill, or a perfect ticket?