Politics1.com - Blog Comments

I am first and Webb is not down that much.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:07 am | #

Neither is Lamont.

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:07 am | #

Nor is Kean Jr

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:07 am | #

Or McCaskill.......I seriously doubt that the Libertarian will take 6% of the vote in the end.

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:09 am | #

In fact I am going to print off this page...take it outside and piss on it.

I think we have reached poll saturation level people.

These polls are crazy anymore.

I do not know what is happening.

By the time this is all done the democrats will win 12 senate seats and the Republicans will win 50 more house seats.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:10 am | #

zogby is bullshit

Will | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:12 am | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...74a07c6ec860707

Conrad Burns cant be doing that well!
Reuters/zogby is for democrats cant you tell.

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:12 am | #

Do people need more proof not to take Zogby seriously?

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:16 am | #

Zogby and Rasmussen are bullshit..

It's all bullshit.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:16 am | #

With the House looking like the DEmocrats will take control the Senate is the place that Congressional Republican power will be based until the 2008 election.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:16 am | #

Whats wrong with Zogby these are the phone polls not the internet based polls.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:17 am | #

Zogby is not partisan. These polls favor republicans in light of other senate polling. Allen up safely, Talent with commanding lead, Dewine deadlocked. Plus Lieberman by a milee

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:20 am | #

Not implying Lieberman is a republican by the way....far from it.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:22 am | #

Whats wrong with the California Conservative is many are far outside what everyother polling group has been showing.

The GOP will probably lose the House. Im pretty sure of that now. The Senate, I think we probably keep the majority with 50 or 51 seats.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:22 am | #

America is in for a world of hurt under a Speaker Pelosi they may not now her now but once she gets in she will be a household name and not in a good way.

I can imagine the demonic dau of Hillary/Pelosi if Hillary manage to win in 2008.

Pray for America, we will need.

Dark dark days are coming.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:25 am | #

I still think the Dems only win 10-13 house seats and 3 to 4 senate seats.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:26 am | #

What happened in New Jersey? Those two polls are inconsistent with everything we've seen for the past month. In all of those, Kean was either leading or within the margin of error.

Eddie | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:27 am | #

It will be sad, but will also provide an oppertunity to regroup, reorganize, and come back in 2008 with new leaders who will carry and new, re-energized conservative agenda.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:27 am | #

Oh great a Falwell/Hugo Chavez cultist.

People like Bush, DeLay, Santorum in leadership positions is not exactly good for the US.

I cannot imagine how Hillary, Pelosi, Durbin, Reid and whoever could be worse.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:29 am | #

From you lips to gods ears. I have notice how calmly the White House seems about this entire sitution like its nothing. Bush was out here in California the other days and just kinda of brushed it off.

This might seem far out but in the back of my mind this has Roves handprints all over it.

I mean sersious the event is just to good for the Democrats to actually be good.

I know that out there but.....

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:29 am | #

Considering Zogby was the one that had Webb up by one percent and now has him down by eleven, I will never believe a single Zogby poll ever.

Geoff - Virginia | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:29 am | #

This nations needs moderation. Not stern liberalism or conservatism.

I always thought Kean was down. New Jersey polls are always unrelieable. I would not trust anything until you see the results on election day.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:30 am | #

Calfiornia has suffered under liberalism and its not something nice. Everyone suffers.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:32 am | #

I want some Rockefeller/Anderson Republicans and some DLC Democrats.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:32 am | #

Zogby is a registered Democrat and has worked as a consultant for the Dems (and for his brother's Arab group). All his polls must be viewed with suspicion, although to be honest, I think plain old incompetence is more the issue than bias, since the rest of the polls also look like garbage.

There is no way Kean went from several points ahead of Menendez to 11 points behind in just a few days. There is no way Stabenow can have 56% in one poll and 48% in another unless one or both polls are wrong.

What I'd like to know is how they define "likely voters." Zogby, e.g., typically asks people how likely they are to vote in federal elections, which is not a good way to gauge how likely people are to vote *this* time.

Doug from PA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:35 am | #

I agree ky;e we will lose the house but the senate I think we will keep b 50-52 seats

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:41 am | #

I was several polls that had Webb and Allen almost tied at the beginning of this week. However, before I say this data is skewed I would like to note Webb did a foolish thing and had Hillary speak on his behalf (in VA!?!?!) and this could easily explain part of the drop in the polls, but I doubt he dropped that much.

Silence Dogood | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:44 am | #

The New Jersey polls are starting to make sense. The safer bet is always with the Democrat in New Jersey, and that's how I'm betting.

I'm also still betting against Ford in Tennessee, in spite of the rash of good polls. The idea that a lot of white Southerners are racists who will tell pollsters they will vote for a black Democrat when they really intend not to...well it hasn't been disproved yet. Maybe they'll grow up this year, but I'm not convinced.

A 49-49-2 Senate would be good entertainment, and probably good for preventing anyone from passing laws even worse than what we have now.

Admiral_Naismith | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:49 am | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...74a07c6ec860707

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:51 am | #

Apparently these races are "toss-ups." Who'da thunk it?

Ya'll ever hear Frank Gilmour, Libertarian of MO? He's the most common sense, plainspoken, tell-it-as-it-is libertarian I've ever heard. He should pick a political party that matters and then run for something.

DemoGog | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:54 am | #

here is the right link to my poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...74a07c6ec860707

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:57 am | #

Boy. In another week or so the daily list of polls is going to take up the entire front page.

I'm a politics junkie, but this is almost getting rediculous.

John | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:01 am | #

I'm also still betting against Ford in Tennessee, in spite of the rash of good polls. The idea that a lot of white Southerners are racists who will tell pollsters they will vote for a black Democrat when they really intend not to...well it hasn't been disproved yet. Maybe they'll grow up this year, but I'm not convinced.

A 49-49-2 Senate would be good entertainment, and probably good for preventing anyone from passing laws even worse than what we have now.

Admiral_Naismith | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:49 am | #

Rasmussen and SUSA are robo-polls so the people are talking with computers ... in theory, they would be more likely to give computers their honest opinion. Still, this is a Republican state so Corker may pull this out. I am hopefully Ford can continue to attack Corker on his record as mayor.

gomer | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:13 am | #

This won't help the Repubs at all:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac...3& notFound=true

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:21 am | #

Hi people....

Oh, I know you all miss me ( I have seen the comments), and I am getting closer to some sort of "official return" to regular blogging here. If time permits at work tomorrow, I might be around, but otherwise, probably on Monday, although I will keep cutting and pasting the Race of the Day thing.

I even emailed paul falduto today to tell him I was ok and to try to explain why I have not been around much. He has been asking about me as much as anyone.

But wow, what if I actually was able to take a vacation one day or ran off and got married or something? I have just been busy with a whole bunch of stuff over the past several days (some good, some bad, some neutral) and have had to prioritize but my absence has nothing to do with the Foley matter. I talked about that ad nasuem from last Thursday through Saturday and I will do so again at a later date.

Anyways, it is sort of funny to see all the Democrat orgasms over his batch of House polls but now claims that his Senate polls are crap and should not be paid attention to.

Very telling.

Personally, I am a little suspicious of Zogby in general.

I think many of his House polls are probably off, including showing the Republican in Iowa 1 holding a hefty 13 point lead.

That is a race I am worried about. I don't believe that Whalen has a 13 point lead for a moment, although I certainly hope he wins.

So, for all the folks who think that the Zogby House polls should be treated as the gospel, don't you sort of have to include the Iowa result there?

Anyways, on the Senate polls, a bunch are now showing Lieberman with a very large lead over Lamont, and I have been predicting that Lieberman easily wins in November since before the primary.

Nice to see George Allen re-opening a nice lead too. All this Foley attention has to be very disappointing to the Webb people.

Ok, I have to run. Now that Rollcall.com is offering its Election Map for free, I want to go check all that stuff out.

Goodnight.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:21 am | #

Zogby is a known liberal but his polling is not skewed or slanted towards democrats.

For months Zogby was the poll that looked best towards Republicans.

Just because someone has a political affiliation doesnt mean they cannot do their job without bias. David Gergen, Lou Dobbs, George Stephanopolous.....I think are impartial in regards to their jobs.

I think Zogby is fair and his polls beyond suspician of bias...his polls just happen to suck.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:24 am | #

Wow Proud Dem, some sort of story about Mike Ferguson from April 2003 that apparently went nowhere!

But three and a half years later, obviously its going to doom Republicans.

For the record, I am feeling a lot better about my party's chances today than I did yesterday, but there is still over a month to go and I am mentally preparing myself for heavy losses.

That wouldn't be fun, but hey, if somebody would have offered me a deal in October 2004 for a Presidential reelection that year and a loss of Congress in 2006, I would have taken it in a heartbeat.

We in the GOP will keep fighting the good fight though for the next 32 days, even though we may lose up to 50 seats in the House if some pundits and bloggers here are to be believed.

Goodnight, again.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:25 am | #

Corey you are suspicious of Zogby but state "nice to see Allen re-opening a nice lead"?

Not sure I get that one.

I do not think most or in fact anyone thinks Allen is up 11 points.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:27 am | #

Heya Corey. You're not a sexual predator apologist like some on here, are you?

DemoGog | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:29 am | #

"

So, for all the folks who think that the Zogby House polls should be treated as the gospel, don't you sort of have to include the Iowa result there?"

Corey, if you were actually here this week, instead of dropping in to lecture, you would know that MANY of us here in BOTH parties said we did not trust the Zogby polls for the House races.

"
For the record, I am feeling a lot better about my party's chances today than I did yesterday,"

Didn't you also think the Foley e-mail wouldn't be a big deal?

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:31 am | #

Oh, before I go, I do want to say a couple things on the Arizona poll that Ron mentions here.

It is worth noting that the numbers he is offering is among registered voters, where Kyl is up by 6 points.

There are a lot of undecideds there in the poll because many of those folks will wind up not voting.

Far more reliable at this stage in the game is a poll among "likely voters" which that same survey also gaged and it showed Kyl ahead 45-36.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoen...02/ daily39.html

The fact that Kyl is actually up 9 points in this poll among likely voters is kind of buried in the story.

The DSCC has just cut back its investment on Pederson in Arizona. They seem to be conceding that race.

But let's keep in mind this Registered Voters/Likely Voters thing. At this point, many polling stories will include both numbers and we need to keep in mind what Ron Gunzburger does with those.

Back in 2004, he would usually not post both sets of numbers or use one exclusively.

Instead, he would post the registered voters number if they were better for Democrats than the likely voters numbers and he would post the likely voters numbers if they were better for Democrats than the registered voters numbers.

It was quite obvious what he was doing in 2004, and it looks like he may be doing the same thing in 2006.

I would suggest that he either post both sets of numbers in those polls or stick to one criteria for all polls (likely voters would be better, regardless of if Republicans or Democrats are faring better)

Bye for real....,I guess I have just really missed this place!

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:32 am | #

If the real DemoGog wants to email me about the matter, feel free.

I can say what I want to say there as I am trying to move on so I can start looking at the Roll Call stuff.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:33 am | #

Well, welcome back, Corey. Would it be alright if I offered you a belated Happy New Year? :)

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:35 am | #

According to polls taken by both Pew and AP/Ipsos (hardly polls where Republicans usually do well) there has been absolutely no effect for the Foley matter on the generic Congressional vote.

The trend there shows Republicans either at the same level they were before the scandal or in the case of AP, actually narrowing the gap.

The big deal about the Foley thing will be that Democrats are probably going to pick up his seat (although the polling data there surprised me in showing that it is not a done deal for them by any means) and possibly could cost Reynolds his seat.

If anybody thinks that Shimkus or Hastert are going to lose their seats, they are smoking ethanol.

Couple of other things.. and then I *really* need to go....

The Foley district was 55-45 for GWB in 2004, not 54-46 as many keep claiming.

Scott P. in describing the Shimkus district has gotten some details wrong. Part of Madison County and all of Belleville are in Jerry Costello's district.

The district that Shimkus currently represents has been changed greatly since he was first elected in 1998 and is now the most Republican district in the state, as GWB carried it with 61 % in 2004.

Bye... I hope.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:38 am | #

Thank you PD, Shana Tova to you too.

Bye.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:38 am | #

Of course, we're a long way from 2004, Corey......and some Republicans are partying like it's still 2002......

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:39 am | #

Understand all polls are taken with a certain margain of error. IF 3 polls have a margin of error of 3, a 11 point gap between polls could signify a reality a change of 5 points. I would refrain from bashing these pollsters across the board as incompetent unless you guys have degrees in statistics or something.

Common Sense | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:40 am | #

Shalom and goodnight as well.

If we can ever agree on anything, I'm glad it's that.

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:40 am | #

BTW, I meant if 2* polls....

Common Sense | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:40 am | #

Corey, I thought the Republicans have always said the generic Congressional ballot does not mean anything? And aren't Republicans already down in the AP/Ipsos and Pew polls? The Gallup poll, Time poll, Rasmussen, show a drop in support for Republicans, and don't Republicans swear by Gallup and Rasmussen?

I don't really believe that the gap would be narrowed by this Foley scandal. And given how you always predict the best for the GOP, I doubt you ever actually believed Foley's seat would go GOP.

If anyone actually believes that this Foley e-mail and coverup scandal is not making a difference for Republicans, or is actually helping them, they must have the political genius of Katherine Harris. And given that Bush and Cheney are now going to what were supposedly safe GOP districts in CA and NV, I find it hard to believe things are going great.

Given the unhinged ranting of Pappy Bush, he would seem to agree:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/ politic...41_warns_o.html

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:44 am | #

If Corey hasn't left again, I wanted him to talk about this Fox News (!) poll that shows Republicans will lose up to 50 seats if they keep Hastert as speaker:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/ 0,2...,218043,00.html

I thought everything was getting better for the GOP.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:53 am | #

Well it appears the Virginia and Connecticut race is over. Unless some another huge scandal breaks, I can't see how Allen and Lieberman will lose their seats.

Common Sense | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:56 am | #

Its been such a long time seen I have seen the sight of Democrats gloating.

Such a long long long time. I had forgotten how bad it looks.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:57 am | #

Whomever leaked that mysterious poll obviously knew what they were doing and it has worked, since it has many of you all excited now that you are going to win 50 seats.

Then, when the public polls come out showing no change in the generic Congressional ballot (which I have always said is only good for gaging trends and momentum, which would be what we are discussing) you all will feel disappointed and and let down again.

Or maybe it is somebody just making something up in order to try to pressure Hastert to resign.

I am glad that you are now all believers in internal GOP polls and the Fox News Channel though.

Do you really think you can keep this Foley stuff in the news for 32 days?

I am sure you have other October surprises planned, but I think Democrats are on the fast track to overplaying their hands on this.

But by all means, please assume you will win 50 seats. That is what I hope for you all to believe.

My offers of taking (charity) wagers on such things still stands if anybody wants to email me.

Goodbye, again, I guess...

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:57 am | #

Such a long long long long time its been

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:58 am | #

More on that AP poll Corey said was great news:

'"With midterm elections less than five weeks away, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that about half of likely voters say recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress will be very or extremely important when they cast their vote next month."

"More troubling for Republicans, the poll found that by a margin of nearly 2-to-1 likely voters says Democrats would be better at combatting political corruption than Republicans."

From Political Wire

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:58 am | #

I think we would have to go to all the way to 1992.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:59 am | #

What does AP/Ipsos show on the generic Congressional ballot to indicates trend and momentum?

Weren't the Dems up 13 in that poll before Foley and now only up by 10?

As always, we have 435 seperate races to focus on for control of the House, and Democrats certainly look a lot better in one district (and maybe two) than was the case last week, but beyond that, I really wonder what effect this will have 32 days from now in indvidual districts.

Just remember how pumped up you all were about Fitzmas and Rove getting indicted, etc. etc.

You may be setting yourselves up for another disappointment.

Ok, really now, it's late and I have to log off.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:02 am | #

And I really don't see why all the gloating. Its not has the Democrats are winning for anything they have done. Left to there own devices it would be a very different story.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:02 am | #

So Corey, you have nothing to say about Bush and Cheney going to very safe GOP districts, or about the NRCC spending money in Idaho (of all places), or about the many polls that say this scandal is bad news for the GOP. All you have to say is that we shouldn't trust a Fox News poll and that this is to make Democrats overconfident? Really, Corey, the GOP are the ones who have done this damage to themselves and made the story run this long. But if you want to try to say this will be bad for Democrats, feel free. It's kind of hard to say that people who are upset about a Congressman hitting on young pages is "overplaying" though.

"
Do you really think you can keep this Foley stuff in the news for 32 days?"

No. But unfortunately for your party, there is no good news out there right now, unless you consider 24+ dead American soldiers in 5 days to be good news. Or the price of oil going back up.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:02 am | #

"
Weren't the Dems up 13 in that poll before Foley and now only up by 10?"

So you're actually telling us that Mark Foley has HELPED Republicans?

I really want to hear you say this flat out. And if you're right, then you can gloat after Election Day.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:04 am | #

Is that good news for the Democrats

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:04 am | #

Sorry Corey it is the democrats who want you to believe that they believe they will win 50 seats it isnt that you know they think they will win 50 seats. They know that you will make yourself believe anything that casts the least negative belief on republicans. I believe you bit on this trick of believability distraction layed by democratic operatives full on.

Do you believe what I am saying?

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:05 am | #

J I do hope for your sake that the Democrats do very well in Nov because if they don't you might look foolish when people start to re post what you are posting now.

That is if you not just disappear

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:08 am | #

California Conservative what are your general predictions on congressional standing after the 06 elections?

Who gains what and how many?

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:11 am | #

I am saying that Foley will not have a national effect on people's votes and it is quite telling that Democrats are under the assumption that this will be their silver bullet. Obviously, they realize they weren't going to win on the issues.

The AP-Ipsos poll (which every election is bad for Republicans) shows a 14 point lead for Democrats among likely voters pre-Foley now down to 10 points.

I don't think Foley is the reason the number went down, but I think the more people wave around the sticky keyboard for a guy who has up and quit and who would have been run out of town by his own party if he did not, the more people will start to regret Democrats for that.

Hastert wants to appoint Clinton FBI Director Louis Freeh to investigate the whole matter and Nancy Pelosi is saying now.

Pelosi does not give a whit about protecting kids or finding out the truth. She just wants an election issue.

Why else is Pelosi refusing to accept Louis Freeh to come investigate everything? Anyone? Anyone at all?

And since the creepy pervert Foley is now a former Congressman and any possible allegation against him is to be believed, maybe we shoudl examine the allegations made against another former elected official.

Specifically, the charges made by Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, and Juanita Broadrick, who, while they were of age (as these former pagers might have even been) are most certainly not claiming to be consenting parties to sexual misconduct. That would make their allegations far more serious obviously.

Also, let's look into the Jim McGreevey matter again whom while nobody is claiming that he did anything with anyone underage, Golan Cipel is still insisting that he was not a consenting party to McGreevey's advances, but was instead sexually harassed and assaulted by his boss.

Let's show some consistency and look into all these things, no matter if they are in office or not, because even though we are at war, this is supposed to trump all.

Darn, look at the time! This is really it!

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:12 am | #

I don't know and anyone that pretends to know is a fool.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:16 am | #

If Zogby/Reuters polls are to believed, it would seem that all political waters are beginning to find their level -- Mendendez is now trending upward and way in front of KJr., Lieberman is polling way ahead of Lamont, and Granholm is starting to pull out well ahead of DeVos. This reflects the "natural order" of all things political in the various states. This also suggests that the hysteria about cataclysmic shake-ups in the political arena is not such a certain thing anymore.

eric nj | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:18 am | #

Is that by implication suggesting that Republicans care about real issues?

That whole arbitrary and random flag burning vote tends to stick out.

What about attaching that min wage bill to an estate tax elimination in a vulgar attempt of trying to suggest demos do not care about min age when they have been trying to get it done for years?

I do not think Republicans have alot of leg to criticize democrats considering the wedge issues they have used for election purposes.

Aimless legislation has been a republican trump card.

The politicalization of the Schiavo thing was absurd.

Also, many republicans are calling for Hastert's heads. Not democrats. The blood is in the water and power hungry repubs are circling. It's republicans who are calling for Hastert to step aside. The democrats are sitting on the sideline for the most part waiting for them to implode.

Foley hurt the democrats on issues because it tucked away the Woodward book and intelligence report of Iraq spreading terrorism.

Corey doesnt have the guts to not post.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:20 am | #

I can say that not one seat in Calfiornia is going to change hands. My Congressmen John Campbell here in Orange County will be elected to a full term.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:20 am | #

"J I do hope for your sake that the Democrats do very well in Nov because if they don't you might look foolish when people start to re post what you are posting now."

Believe it or not, the future of America matters more to me than what is written on here. If Republicans manage to get 2 more years to fuck things up even more, then that will be my main concern. If you're more worried about a political website, then good for you, that must be nice.

"I am saying that Foley will not have a national effect on people's votes and it is quite telling that Democrats are under the assumption that this will be their silver bullet. Obviously, they realize they weren't going to win on the issues."

Corey, I haven't seen any assumption this is the silver bullet. Most Democrats in local races aren't touching this issue on any level other than saying Hastert should resign.

Using your logic, Republicans should have lost badly in '94 because of all the time they spent spreading stories about Clinton.

"
Why else is Pelosi refusing to accept Louis Freeh to come investigate everything? Anyone? Anyone at all?"

He's a hardcore GOP partisan who has donated exclusively to Republicans since 2000. He has no business heading an independent investigation.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:20 am | #

But I do....goodnight.

I am actually one of those people who leave when they say they will.

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:22 am | #

The quality of this blog has decreased since the 2004 election. Many good posters have not returned b/c of the childishness of the "discussion" on here.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:22 am | #

"If Zogby/Reuters polls are to believed, it would seem that all political waters are beginning to find their level -- Mendendez is now trending upward and way in front of KJr., Lieberman is polling way ahead of Lamont, and Granholm is starting to pull out well ahead of DeVos. This reflects the "natural order" of all things political in the various states. This also suggests that the hysteria about cataclysmic shake-ups in the political arena is not such a certain thing anymore."

Zogby is an unreliable pollster. I wouldn't use his polls as evidence of some natural order. I'm not sure what the natural order of this election year would be anyway, given the way Republicans are on defense in so many districts. Even Zogby's supposedly reliable polls show them losing in many places.

Zogby sucks.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:23 am | #

As for Corey I think he is kinda of a character a mindless bushbot unwilling to say when he is wrong. Plus its good that he doesn't post often anymore, he was posting much to much.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:24 am | #

Wow. The series of polls out of USA Today/Gallup show quite a different story. Every race the Dems lead except VA where they are only down by 3.

Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:29 am | #

And just think of this after this election the endless talk and campaign for the presidential primaries will begin even earlier then before.

The British have something right. An election every 5 years and a 6 week election can do a world of good.

California Conservative | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:33 am | #

"The quality of this blog has decreased since the 2004 election. Many good posters have not returned b/c of the childishness of the "discussion" on here."

Ah yes, back during the Alan Keyes debates.

I do think you're a very smart guy. And I think Corey is too. As is Kyle. I don't know why anyone in 2006 supports Republicans, but I do think you guys are smart. I just hate the "bye...for now" 500 times a night, and the weird GOP spin. But that's far better than anything from Adrianna. Ugh.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:34 am | #

Kyle could be the upset of the night...Va may hold their noxe and keep Allen but look for Kyle to have a close race. Az voters are much more sopisticated than Va voters and they may take out their disgust with the Republican party on Kyle.

Yallerdawg | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 3:10 am | #

Answers to J:

California Con supports the GOP because he believes the big fat lie that the GOP is religious/moral. He also blames Gov. Gray Davis (D) for the power cuts, etc, even though they weren't actually his fault.

Kyle was brainwashed as a young adolescent by a politico-religious cult, who duped him into hating his own sexuality, and told him he'd only get into heaven if he supported the GOP. Poor kid. Poor kid.

Corey first joined the GOP because he wrongly got the impression that they were less anti-Semitic than the Dems.
He ignored the fact that two-thirds of Jews (including the best-known community leaders) are Democrats.
He also ignored the Christian doctrine which says that Jews will be slaughtered at Armageddon.
And he ignored the reality that Clinton's attempt to find a roadmap to peace was the best policy the US could have towards Israel, while this warmongering neocon administration has been nothing short of disastrous for Israel's security.

anti-spin | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 4:40 am | #

maybe we should stop typecasting people we have never met...

These Zogby polls seem very pro-incumbent...

Jj | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:15 am | #

apart from Santorum... but who can save him anyway...

Jj | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:20 am | #

These numbers are bunk. I officially am over Zogby.

Kevin B. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 7:53 am | #

Polls are like the weather in New England. If you don't like it, just wait a minute.

Note: Weather in New England is supposed to be excellent all thru the Columbus Day weekend. Time to go see the beautiful fall foilage if you can. There will plenty of time for this BS when you come back.

Manila Calling! | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 7:58 am | #

Abramoffing the Democrats on what is viewed fundamentally as a GOP scandal simply is not going to work. Those portions of the public that have been galvanized by this scandal want to hear more about *this*, not one involving different individuals, parties, and circumstnces from anything from three to twenty years ago.

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 8:10 am | #

the GOP loved Zogby after 2000; now they worship Rasmussen.

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 8:10 am | #

It seems as though the undecideds increased in every race.

Tony | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 9:21 am | #

I tend to trust Rasmuessen much more than Zogby. What a crock of shit about Webb, Lamont and Kean Jr. down that much! These races are very close.

Texas Dem | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:14 am | #

more polls--from politicalwire

"Democrats are within striking distance of winning control of the Senate in the Nov. 7 elections, USA Today/Gallup Polls in six key states show as the campaigns head into their final month."

Among the findings:
In Maryland, Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD) leads Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) 54% to 39%
In Missouri, Claire McCaskill (D) beats Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) 48% to 45%, a nine-point swing for McCaskill
In Virginia, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) tops Jim Webb (D) 48% to 45%
In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) leads Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by three points, 46% to 43%
In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse (D) has opened up a strong lead, beating Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) 50% to 39%
In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN) tops Bob Corker (R) 50% to 45%
There were also two noteworthy gubernatorial polls:
In Maryland, Martin O’Malley (D) bests Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) 53% to 41%
In Rhode Island, Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) and Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty (D) are neck-and-neck, with Carcieri leading 47% to 46%.

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:25 am | #

New USA Today/Gallup:
Ben Cardin (D) leading Michael Steele (R) 54%-39% in MD;
Claire McCaskill (D) leading Sen. Jim Talent (R) 48%-45% in MO;
Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leading Tom Kean (R) 46%-43% in NJ; Sheldon Whitehouse (D) leading Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) 50%-39% in RI;
Rep. Harold Ford (D) leading Bob Corker (R) 50%-45% in TN;
and Sen. George Allen (R) leading Jim Webb (D) 48%-45% in VA (release).

NC_Politico | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:49 am | #

The MO and Tenn Gallup polls look very good for Dems...

NC_Politico | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:50 am | #

Damn. Here I was hoping that I'd break the news of USA Today's
front page article on the Senate races and Scott P and NC_Politico
beat me to it. Oh well.

I'm still a little worried about New Jersey but even there there is a
glimmer of hope. Like NC_Politico
I'm beginning to get optimistic about Mo. and Tn.

Alex M. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:57 am | #

It's hard, but as a matter of consistency I have to doubt the validity of some of those Gallup polls.

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:59 am | #

Oh here's one that hasn't been reported yet. On CNN this morning
they had a scientific poll on the Foley Scandal. A clear majority-I think around 66%-thought the Republicians previously tried to cover it up. They also said that 25%
were less likely to vote for Republicians because of Foleygate.
And something less then a majority
does not buy previous scandals
associated with Democrats in any
comparison with this current scandal.

In other words comparisons of
Clinton/Lewinsky conduct in
comparison with Foley/Congressional Leaders
coverup are largely rejected by the public. It's time for the neoconservatives on this blog
to cast down hellfire and brimstone
on CNN and those who frequent that station.

Alex M. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:09 am | #

Morning folks, here are my views on the US Senate races:

Arizona-United States Senator: The only way I see former State Democratic Party Chair Jim Pederson (D) winning in November is if incumbent Governor Janet Napolitano (D) has BIG coattails to carry him over the top against two-term incumbent US Senator Jon Kyl (R) and if there is Latino turnout in Phoenix and Tuscon.

Connecticut-United States Senator: You can start saying "6 more years" for three-term incumbent US Senator Joe Lieberman (Ind) on November 7th, he'll crush businessman Ned Lamont (D) by a 61% to 37% massive landslide.

Maryland-United States Senator-OPEN: I'm still saying that Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele (R) will come from behind and defeat US Congressman Ben Cardin (D) by a squeaker: 50-49 in November and will join Obama in the US Senate.

Michigan-United States Senator: There is no way that Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) is catching up on incumbent US Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) and this race will be a laugher and Stabenow will win re-election by a 61-37.

President Keeler | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:09 am | #

There is no way in hell that Lieberman beats Lamont by a 61-37 margin. Lamont still has a chance to win this race. However, I say Joe still wins by a 49-46 margin with the Republican taking 4%.

Texas Dem | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:16 am | #

These Gallup Polls are looking really interesting. Usually Gallup Trends more conservative.
The bad thing is we didn't have one from Montana & Ohio either.
But probably Gallup didn't decided to poll Montana & Ohio because this Races are decided.

Over to Rasmussen Premium Content.
Iowa Governor Race still a dead head. The Numbers
Chet Culver (D) 42 %
Jim Nussle (R) 42 %
Next Minnesota Governor
Mike Hatch (D) 44 %
Tim Pawlenty (R) 42 %
with leaners
Mike Hatch (D) 50 %
Tim Pawlenty (R) 46 %
At least Minnesota Senate
leaners included
Amy Klobuchar (D) 56 %
Mark Kennedy (R) 40 %
That's all from Rasmussen Premium today.
I wish, we could have a Poll from Rhode Island from Rasmussen to confirm the Gallup Poll

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:19 am | #

I in no way would predict a Ford victory in TN, unfortunately. I think MO is THE MOST IMPORTANT Sen race for Dems.

NC_Politico | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:20 am | #

Oh, terrific.

As if we needed more proof that Republicans are relying on appeals to racism as their last desperate hope to carry Tennessee--

Here's Corker sending out flyers with pictures of Ford, that have been doctored to make Ford's skin look darker than it really is.

http://haroldfordjr2006.blogspot...ot-in- 1960.html

Republicans have no ethics, no shame, no class.

AdmiralNaismith | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:25 am | #

Oops. Me Bad. That poll I cited
was reported in CNN. It was actually done by Time magazine though CNN does show it. There are more results there then I gave but the most interesting one is that the public is almost evenly split on whether Hastert should
resign his leadership post. I think
it 39% for-38% against. I take the latter position. I think its too early
to call for Hastert resignation until we find out EXACTLY when he was aware of the problem.

Alex M. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:39 am | #

I cant imagine Democrats winning now....they still may but how could anyone really vote for them? The Dow Jones has hit a rcord high, the economy is doing wonderful, within a year the security of Iraq should be completely handed over to the new government.

There is one other major reason that I predict a Democrat defeat this year and that is 1998. Remmember the Republicans had been going after Clinton full force and in the end it turned people off. The Democrats have gone after Bush, Cheney, Hastert, Rumsfeld, Rice, DeLay, Alito, Libby, Rove.... the list goes on and they have done so almost entirely on weak ground. If all the Republicans had to do was attack Clintons personal life then the Democrats by all means should be finished this year. Add the lack of persuasive issues to the petty personal attacks they have been staging and the coffin should be sealed.

Now I expect blue states to vote Dem anyway....but Red states be ware.

Travis | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:49 am | #

Travis you forget that Clinton had a 65% AR when the GOP was going after him. the personal scandals were the ONLY thing the Republicans had that year. The Foley case and the GOP covering up is just one more headache the majority party doesn't need

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:54 am | #

Ford will get more minority & undecided voters for a decisive win of 5% or more.
Looks like Jon Kyl is losing ground in AZ maybe Pederson can rally in the next 4 weeks.
As far as the r/zogby polls there seems to be a higher margin of error there.

WAKE UP AMERICA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:01 pm | #

Dems must win MO and TN if the want to capture the Senate. If they win only one we'll have a 50-50 tie.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:09 pm | #

Travis the Dow has not kept up with inflation in the past 5 years as qouted by the Wall St. Journal yesterday even with the record high the journal states that the Dow should be 30-40% higher than the record it hit if you factor in inflation.

WAKE UP AMERICA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:12 pm | #

I wonder if Ford will post over 95% of African-American voters. I was reading about Moon Landrieu's run for New Orleans Mayor the other day and was really surprised: he received 99% of the black vote. That's just so unusual to hear about, but I wonder if Ford won't get close to it, especially if this flyer thing is true.

VCUMIKE | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:13 pm | #

My gosh, Travis, you are upbeat!

Whatever the truth in your litany of "things going well" the voters sure don't see it that way.

Two-thirds think this country is going in the wrong direction.

I guess they don't share your sunny assessment of how well things are going.

And if you think that all will be well within the year in Iraq, you drank a double dose of the kool aide this morning.

paul falduto | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:15 pm | #

As a Foreigner observing American politics Im gutted by the lack of focus from the Democrats to allow them to be distracted by this petty scandel.

The seems to be no discussion or debate on the issues that actually matter to be.

Iraq is a mess, North Korea wants to test nukes and Iran is growing into a bigger problem everyday and yet you Americans see to be totally distracted by rubish.

Johannes | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:16 pm | #

I think you Americans are coming to a conclusion were the Republicans shouldn't win the election and the Democrats don't deserve to win the election.

Johannes | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:20 pm | #

Sen. Warner has said that things are getting worse in Iraq. I await Rove and Cheney's (two guys who had better things to do than go to SE Asia) assessment of Korean War vet Warner's patriotism.

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:22 pm | #

HEY: JOHANNES GO BACK TO YOUR OWN COUNTRY YOU FOREIGN FACIST COMMI........

WAKE UP AMERICA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:24 pm | #

I saw that of course you have to dig threw the rubish about Foley. Why isn't that the main topic of discussion here and on other blogs instead of Foley.

I do wonder if Foley had been talking to a young women would this even be a story?

Johannes | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:24 pm | #

I am in my own country. Munich Germany.

Johannes | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:25 pm | #

Hi Johannes.

I do agree to a point with you, that the Democrats focusing on this such as this, they still have yet to really come out with their plans on what they will do in the majority.

When they win the majority this could turn out to be a liablity for them. No plans, nothing really in focus. Their new majority will be in trouble in 2008.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:31 pm | #

The Foley scandal, and the subsequent safe-harboring of a cyber paedophile by the GOP leadership (and Reynolds will probably lose his seat because of it) might actually be a welcome distraction from the Iraqi War fiasco for the conservatives. The Iraq War was initiated by chicken hawks who are now completely out of ideas about how to get America out of the expensive and bloody disaster zone that Bush put us in.

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:35 pm | #

Public Opinion Strategies

Cardin 47%
Steele 43%
Zeese 2%

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:38 pm | #

But yet the Democrats would rather talk about Foley a backbencher.

It really is very gutting that the Republicans and the Democrats are the only choice for the American people.

I feel sad for them.

Johannes | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:38 pm | #

"they still have yet to really come out with their plans on what they will do in the majority."

Kyle do you consider "stay the course" in Iraq to be an actual plan? If it is it looks like the chairman of the Senate Armed Forces committee doesn't even think so.

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:39 pm | #

It's not the cyber paedophile Foley so much. The issue is the safe harbor provided to him by the GOP, the so-called "family values" party.

The GOP put politics ahead of values. That decision is sure backfiring now.

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:40 pm | #

I consider "kill the bad guys and leave when we can" to be an actual plan yes.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:40 pm | #

Thats really the plan used in all wars, fight until we are done. We will be done when Iraq can stand on its own and we can leave.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:42 pm | #

Stand on its own? Iraq can't stand full stop. It's been ripped apart from within. We've completely failed. We continue to fail. Iraq is a disaster.

Defer to the thinking of people like Colin Powell for goodness sake.

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:46 pm | #

Thats really the plan used in all wars, fight until we are done. We will be done when Iraq can stand on its own and we can leave.

That's all well and good, but that is a goal and not really a plan. As Daniel points out Iraq, at this point can't sit, much les stand on its on.

What is particularly infuriating is that this administration seems completely befuddled as to how to help get Iraq to a place where it can safely stand on its own, and can only offer soundbites and plataitudes about kiliing terrorists over "there" before they come "here."

Nate Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:50 pm | #

Kyle Iraq will never be able to stand on its own. They just pulled Iraqi troops & police out of certain areas because they are causing more violence than good. Iraq will need foreign troops to maintain peace even after we remove our majority of troops. Peace in the entire region will never be accomplished by more WAR.

WAKE UP AMERICA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:51 pm | #

Sorry Daniel but I for one couldnt support throwing millions of people into the lions den. We went into Iraq, and its our duty to work towards not allowing these people to fall into the hands of people who were as evil as S.H.

When we do that, then we have failed. Until then we must work towards our goals. Too often I feel people have grown to think war is just something you play on a video game, or something far away with Americans bombing people with air planes. The cold truth is war is awful, and Americans are starting to see that again. But if we as a nation gave in everytime we see something awful, can you image what this world would be like? How horrible it would be.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:53 pm | #

This administration's so-called policy on Iraq is very Keystone Cop-like. They lurch from one disaster to the next. It's almost like Bush is now relying on divine intervention to overcome the anarchy that is consuming the country, thanks to a war that Bush started (based on false evidence).

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:54 pm | #

"Fight until we are done".

well there you have it folks. What do we need military strategy or West Point or any of that stuff for when you have those five simple words.
No wonder Eisenhower's son voted against this administration.

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:55 pm | #

Kyle, why then did we not intervene in Rwanda? Why have we not overthrown the tyrannical regime in Burma? Why did we not intervene to stop the slaughter in East Timor?

Iraq was about oil and it's geo-political importance in the Middle East. Men who never served (Bush and Cheney) hoped that by sending in an inferior number of personnel that we would win. Right now it's a major fiscal bleed. Thousands of lives have been lost. Many more lives will be lost.

It's another Vietnam.

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 12:59 pm | #

Love the Gallup polls today. Dems ahead of the GOP in every Senate race except VA (and Webb is practically neck and neck with Allen). Cardin by 15, Whitehouse by 11, Ford by 5, McCaskill and Menendez ahead...things are looking very good. (No polling on PA, MT or OH, but its accepted that the Dem candidates are ahead by good margins in all three races.)

gf120581 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:00 pm | #

THERE WILL NEVER BE PEACE AGAIN IN THE REGION THANKS TO BUSH....................

WAKE UP AMERICA | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:00 pm | #

I hate to tell you Kyle, but that has in many cases already happened. As a report a couple of weeks ago stated tat instances of torturing civillians had INCREASED since the fall of Hussein. Unfortunately for the people of Iraq, they have traded one brutal dictator, for several brutal war lords.

Bush and Company charged headlong into Iraq, with the idead that the war and rebuilding of Iraq would be quick,easy, and painless. For some bizzare reason, they never seemed to dream that: a) terrorist would seize the leadership vaccum to establish strong holds in Iraq, and b) All of Iraq's disparte groups would magically coallese and live peacefully ever after.

Such fanciful notions were fed in part by climbing into bed with the now discredited Chalabi, before fully vetting him.

And yet despite their monumental failures, the administration admits nothing, and insists that everything is hunky dory and that we shoul "stay the course" Meanwhile more US troops and innocent Iraq civillians are fed to the meat grinder. It is borderline criminal.

Nate Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:01 pm | #

Bush's Iraq policy has made al-Qaeda's job so easy. Recruiting terrorists is a piece of cake for the terrorists thanks to Bush's Iraq policy.

Truly depressing.

Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:04 pm | #

Kyle
Your view of no plans by the Democrats, should they win, seems contradicted Nancy Pelosi's comments yesterday.
She said in the first one hundred HOURS a Democratic House of Rep's would:
1. Cut off the domination of lobbyists over legislation.
2. Raise the federal minimun wage to $7.25, probably NOT in a phase in, but in one fell swoop.
3. Allow Medicare to force pharmaceutical companies into negotiating lower prices for prescription drugs.
4. Cut the interest rates on college loans in half.
5.Pay the costs by rolling back the tax cuts given by Bush to people earning over a quarter million dollars a year.
6. Require all spending be on "Pay-as-you-go" so as not to continue the increasing federal deficits/debt.
7.Expand the federal spending for stem cell research.
That's in the first 100 HOURS. Compare that to the Do-Nothing Republican Congress.

Disappointed | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:05 pm | #

Daniel,

We as a single nation cant fix every problem in the world. Try talking to the UN. But they wont do anything because they are a bunch of losers suck up money and building space. Its clear from all their recent actions that they are not effective.

Nate,

Im sure thats not the case. Its impossible to tell just how much civilian torturing happened under Saddam.

The people in Iraq have a far better life now, and will in the future because of what we did.

Yes it is criminal that so many people are dying over there, thats why we must fight to take care of the people doing it.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:08 pm | #

Wow, the Democrats almost had another Senate seat pick-up fall right in their laps:

---

Inhofe, his aide safe after plane crash-lands
By JIM MYERS World Washington Bureau
10/6/2006

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe and an aide escaped injury Thursday when the small plane the Oklahoma Republican was flying spun out of control after landing at Tulsa's Jones Riverside Airport.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/ NewsSt...e_A1_Inhof10315

Aaron | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:11 pm | #

Now with that I must go.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:12 pm | #

Democrats win NJ, PA, MT, OH, RI, MO, TN.

Republicans win NV, AZ, VA.

Lieberman wins CT.

Net==49-49-2. Sanders votes with Dems, making 50. Cheney appears in a cloud of brimstone, ready to break a tie.

Lieberman plays kingmaker to whichever party kisses his ass with the most tongue action and determines control of the Senate.

If this happens, watch for Joe to threaten to change parties at least once a month, until someone else like Collins or one of the Nelsons switches parties instead just to make Joe stop.

AdmiralNaismith | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:16 pm | #

Lamont is finished, Steele is not out of it, Stabenow is about at the finish line, Talent is still hanging in there, Burns is staying close, Menendez is starting to pull away, too close to call in Ohio but leans toward Brown,Santorum is starting to fall behind but is still in this thing, Chafee is starting to fall behind, Tennessee is too close to call but leans toward Corker, Allen is starting to pull away.

curlylouis1970122 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:17 pm | #

Admiral, Lieberman has said repeatedly he will caucus with the Democrats no matter what.

And don't be so quick to give Arizona to the GOP. The polls are tightening there. With the escalation of the Foley scandal, Kyl is in trouble. And in Virginia, I'm sure Allen will say something stupid (i.e. racist) in the next four weeks that may well cost him his seat as well.

Aaron | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:19 pm | #

Santorum is not in this thing. Santorum is finished. Accept it.

And TN is lean Ford right now. Corker wouldn't have replaced his entire campaign staff if things were going well for him.

gf120581 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:38 pm | #

Why are you all even bothering to get all worked up about these polls.

REMINDER!!: The only poll that counts in the one on election day!

timmer R-MD | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:50 pm | #

There is only one pole result that counts and that will occur on november 7th.

Ct will go to lieberman and he will redeclare that he is a democrat. the only way that lamont can win is for his gotv team to make sure that republicans vote for Alan Schlesinger.
Alan Schlesinger should be screaming at the national gop that they are not doing more to help him with the democratic vote split between lamont and lieberman he could win ala Lowell Wieker.

Zogby may be a democrat but his methods seem to be have a skewed republican response much in the same way the literary digest polls of the 1930's

I have been looking back over history in the last 30 years or so and have noticed that republicans seem to get us involed in a lot of military actions
Cambodia, Grenada,Iraq, Somalia (started by ghwbush presidency , the balkins(started at the end of the ghwbush presidency ) Haiti, Afghanistan and Iraq. Now its not to say that that the dems haven't done their share of using the military. A review of history goes back 90 years. ww1,ww2, korea, vietnam.

May be this country needs a change in direction.

How can we expect our republican government to protect us against terrorists when they cant even protect us from perverted members from their own party. Foley is just the most recent example I seem to remember that a some one from homeland security was caught in an dateline NBC type sting a few months ago.

Just some food for thought

Middletown Bomber | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:06 pm | #

Actually all this is very simple.If an incumbent is below fifty per cent in final polling then he will likely lose.If he is at fifty per cent it is tossup.If he is at fifty one per cent or better he will probably win.

Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:12 pm | #

REMINDER!!: The only poll that counts in the one on election day!

timmer R-MD | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 1:50 pm | #

Yes, that statement has been uttered by election losers for generations.

Aaron | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:06 pm | #

Aaron,

Both losers and winners use the above statement.

i recall election 2003 a late poll (within a day or so of the election) showed that John Street was going to lose his re-election bid for mayor of Philadelphia.
Street was quoted as saying "the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

On election day turn out was brisk and Street won by almost 20 points

Middletown Bomber | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:13 pm | #

Go Joe Go!!!

Joe Lieberman will win with over 50% of the vote.

007 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:16 pm | #

Kyle, maybe, and hopefully in the long run that will be the case, but as it stands now, the average iraqi cannot levae their house without fear of being shot, raped, or blown to bits by a bomb. he sad reality is that in the short term, Iraq is a more dangerous place today than it ws three years ago. As I stated earlier, hopefully that will not always be the case.

Nate Daniel | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:37 pm | #

The neocons assertion that all is well in Iraq reminds me of an alcoholic in denial that there is a problem. Maybe with folks like Sen. Warner making these kinds of pronouncements it will work as a sort of intervention.

Scott P | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:39 pm | #

Kyles statement at 1:08 shows that he is totally divorced from reality.To assert that the Iraqis have a better life now because of our intervention there is an absurdity.

Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:44 pm | #

Senate Outlook.
First, the Gallup Poll in Maryland was wasted time and money.
Cardin will win by middle single digits (5-7 Percent)
Second New Jersey: Menendez will pull it out with the usually high Democratic Turnout in New Jersey.
Third on the Republican Site in my opinion Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island are gone.
RI have granted Chafee a place on the General Election Ballot but wouldn't granted him another Senate Seat.
Virginia
In the end Allen will pull it out.
That leaves Missouri and Tennessee as the Senate decider.
Ford has a slight lead but TN is a Republican State. Missouri is a swing State and could go either way.
It will be a long night and we have to wait until every single vote is counted on Nov 7 & Nov 8.

Over in the House we can"t rely on sporadic House Polls from different Pollsters.
Next week we could have a clearer picture as "Majority Watch" on Constituent Dynamics are determined to release around 30-35 House Polls.
In my opinion House will go to the Dems, Senate will have 50-50 tie.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:55 pm | #

Both losers and winners use the above statement.

i recall election 2003 a late poll (within a day or so of the election) showed that John Street was going to lose his re-election bid for mayor of Philadelphia.
Street was quoted as saying "the only poll that counts is the one on election day.

On election day turn out was brisk and Street won by almost 20 points

Middletown Bomber | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 2:13 pm | #

But there was that FBI probe/bugging of his offices in a possible corruption probe that surfaced very late in the race. Street turned that issue around and rallied his African-American base which is a large majority in Philly.

gomer | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 3:08 pm | #

I wish Ron would not even bother to post Zogby polls. They do nothing but take up space and muddy the waters!

Sunlover1 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 3:51 pm | #

Damn Greens! Going to cost us the election in Tennessee!

Centrist Dem Chris | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 4:26 pm | #

It's encouraging to see so many Libertarians polling so well this year: Gilmour, Smither, Badnarik...

I visit this site every single day and I never see polls for Texas 10, 14, and 22.....

Christian-Libertarian | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:08 pm | #

This is for all users.
Dem Harold Ford Jr. and Rep Bob Corker will Debate on C-Span tonight and you can watch it over the Internet.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:23 pm | #

Race of the Day

October 6, 2006
32 Days Until Election Day

Utah U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent
2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican

In what is probably the most conservative and Republican friendly of any state, Senator Orrin Hatch appeared assured of cruising to a sixth term. The one recent poll on his race shows him leading his Democrat opponent, internet executive Pete Ashdown, by upwards of 40 points. Once back in Washington, Hatch might decide to focus some more on his burgeoning musical career.

Back in either late 2005 or early 2006, there was some internet buzz among liberals about a poll that indicated that many in Utah thought it was time for somebody other than Hatch to go to Washington and serve in the Senate. They took that to believe that there was widespread discontent with the veteran Republican and that he could be ripe to be upset. What might not have been taken into account though is how many of the people who responded that they wanted someone new elected are actually folks who consider themselves vastly to the right of the Senator. While the staunchly Pro-Life Hatch is widely viewed as a conservative, there are a good deal of people within his state who have been somewhat suspicious of him ever since he started a personal friendship with Senate colleague Ted Kennedy and based on some of his votes in recent years, such as his support for stem cell research.

While many people feel that Hatch has become too much of the establishment of Washington the longer he stays, they were very unlikely to be inclined to actually vote against him, especially when running against a young first time candidate like Ashdown, who is pretty liberal. Most Democrats came to realize that running against Hatch in Utah is a bit of a fool’s errand, although some speculated that the Green Party candidacy of Julian Hatch, a distant cousin of the Senator, could confuse some voters and cost the incumbent votes. Such a scenario is highly doubtful.

Yesterday, I mentioned that it might take a Foleyesque scandal for Kay Bailey Hutchison to taste defeat in Texas. Today, I want to say that it might take something like Orrin Hatch divorcing his wife of 49 years and entering into a polygamous marriage with Marie Osmond, former Utah Jazz great Karl “The Mailman” Malone, and the mascot of Hatch’s quixotic 2000 Presidential campaign, the “Skinny Cat”, for Hatch to have to worry about losing this race.

Hatch campaign link:

http://www.orrin2006.com/

2006 Senate races predicted thus far: 15 D, 12 R
Post-election Senate balance of power predicted thus far: 42 D, 52 R

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:28 pm | #

Sorry, made a mistake.
Tennessee Senate Debate tomorrow night on C-Span.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:36 pm | #

NEW SURVEY USA POLL

Just 27% think Hastert should remain as speaker.

43% think he should resign his seat.

Normally, I'd see 43% and say that's the Democratic base. Now, I'm not sure. Lots of Democrats see an advantage to having him stay. Evangelicals, maybe?

The only Sportsbook taking action on the House of Rep's (Pinnacle) took it off the board this afternoon.

Disappointed | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 5:56 pm | #

That's a pretty stupid poll in many regards. How many Americans take the opinion that who the Speaker of the House is remains a matter for the 435 Members of the body?

If you were to look at the poll though, they show the number opposing Hastert fell significantly yesterday from the day before, especially among Independents.

In a feeding frenzy environment such as this, the story is that Hastert approved his standing Thursday as compared to Wednesday.

Many were saying he would have been gone by this time on Friday. That of course did not happen.

If they were to take the same poll on Monday, I imagine the trend woudl continue.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:07 pm | #

Let's look more closely at the Survey USA poll that has Disappointed all excited.

People saying Hastert should resign:

Democrats-

Wed- 57%
Thurs- 54 %

There is your angry Dem base there of course

Republicans-

Wed- 36 %
Thurs- 27 %

Are these Republicans going to be voting Democrat? I would bet anything that more than 36 % of Republicans would say that Pelosi should resign too. A lot of people want *everyone* in Congress to resign. People in the GOP are still mad as hell at Hastert for allegedly trying to protect Bill Jefferson of LA.

Most importantly in that poll-

Independents-

Wed- 53 %
Thurs- 39 %

In those numbers right there, you can see that the events of Thursday went a long way in stablizing Hastert.

Now, it is the weekend, and unless something dramatically different occurs (beyond ABC being all pervy and printing more instant messages), this whole scandal has since passed its zenith as a matter of public fascination.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:19 pm | #

Have a good weekend!

Go Bears and Huskies!

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:33 pm | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...74a07c6ec860707

just 3 and a 1/2 hours left!

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:40 pm | #

Survey USA Poll from 4th October asking of the Job Approval of Congressman Tom Reynolds who served in 26th New York Congressional District.
Disapprove 66 %
Approve 20 %
Not sure 14 %
That suggesting me that Foley's is CLEARLY in Voters minds.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:44 pm | #

How is it going. This sucks all the poll point towards a Democratic House and Speaker Pelousi (yuck!) I hope we pull it off but with the abramoff and Foley scandals we should forget it. I hope the dems are not dumb enough to impeach Bush.

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 6:50 pm | #

From a GOP source.
Internal polling from GOP showing Americans have bailed on the GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert. He could devastate the Party if he remains Speaker until Election.
And the difference could be between a 20 or a 50 Seat loss on Nov. 7. Americans have already made up their mind.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 7:32 pm | #

Bush is polling at 37% approval in that Hastert poll.

even if 10% of that 27% conservative voters still want Hastert to resign by November that is still 10% mad at the Republican leadership. If they don't show up or even if 5% don't show up and vote, many of these close races can swing to the Democrats.

gomer | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 7:56 pm | #

I forgot to mention that a plurality of Republicans want Hastert to either resign his speaker of the House position or resign FROM CONGRESS. That is sign of some anger among Republicans.

gomer | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 8:00 pm | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...74a07c6ec860707

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 9:28 pm | #

Corey, the problem is if those 36% of Republicans sit at home on Election Day. They don't have much reason to go out and vote now, not when the GOP has ruined everything.

I do wish that the media would move on from the Foley story though, because there are so many other horrible news stories for Republicans, like Warner saying we need to change course in Iraq, and a Rove aide resigning.

Here's a great new ad from Tester, per Hotline:

"1. Tester Ad Knocks Patriot Act: State Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D) is up with a new TV ad in MT attacking Sen. Conrad Burns (R) and the Patriot Act. ANNCR: "Nearly all of Montana's legislators, including" 51 GOPers, "want to replace the Patriot Act." Why? "Because it lets federal government agents search our bank accounts, medical records, even our gun sales -- for whatever reason." The ad concludes, "When you see" Burns "attack" Tester, "ask him...Where's Osama bin Laden? And when did you get so out of touch with Montana?""

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 9:46 pm | #

My GOP Presidential Poll has closed!

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:00 pm | #

Congradulations to John McCain! He has barily won my GOP Presidential Poll.
He will advance to the General Election Poll in November.

Here are the Results.
(R)John McCain 20%
(R)Chuck Hagel 19%
(R)Rudolph Giuliani 13%
(R)George Allen 8%
(R)Mitt Romney 5%
(R)Condi Rice 5%
(R)Sam Brownback 4%
(R)Mike Huckabee 4%
(R)Newt Gingrich 3%
(R)Bill Frist 3%
(R)George Pataki 1%
None of the Above 16%

Once again Congradulations to John McCain for winning my poll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:10 pm | #

He's the Senate as I see it:

The GOP's chances of getting a pickup are getting dimmer. WA and MN are out of reach. Cardin seems to be putting things away in MD (no wonder Steele was pleading to the NRSC for funds). And Menendez appears to be regaining momentum. Again, here, I expect the NJ Dems to close the deal once again, like they always seem to do. But the NJ race remains the GOP's one lone chance for a pickup.

As of now, these four Senate seats are probably lost to the GOP: PA, MT, OH and RI. TN is currently leaning their way, but is still a tossup. MO is a total tossup. Allen still has a slim edge in VA, but it's tenuous. So right now, if things hold, the Dems could very well take back the Senate. Right now I'm still predicting a 50-50 split.

gf120581 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:11 pm | #

Vote in New poll
out oof the Democratic Possible candidates for President who would you vote for?

here is the link
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...b7d71f37f1d36d1

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 10:27 pm | #

"TN is currently leaning their way"

Why do you think so?

J | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:08 pm | #

Arizona is next on the menu for consumption.......

thunder | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:29 pm | #

Corey: You said,

"Are these Republicans going to be voting Democrat? I would bet anything that more than 36 % of Republicans would say that Pelosi should resign too. "

You're never going to find that out, but I would bet (again it's purely hypothetical that 80% of republican respondents don't know who Pelosi is, let alone wanting her to resign.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:39 pm | #

Well, most of the recent polls do have Ford leading by a few points, so he does seem to have a slight edge. But it's still a tossup status.

gf120581 | Email | Homepage | 10.06.06 - 11:57 pm | #

Yesterday, I mentioned that it might take a Foleyesque scandal for Kay Bailey Hutchison to taste defeat in Texas. Today, I want to say that it might take something like Orrin Hatch divorcing his wife of 49 years and entering into a polygamous marriage with Marie Osmond, former Utah Jazz great Karl “The Mailman” Malone, and the mascot of Hatch’s quixotic 2000 Presidential campaign, the “Skinny Cat”, for Hatch to have to worry about losing this race.

There'll be a

Blue

Christmas, without you

There'll be a

Bluuuuuuuuue

Christmas, without you ....

Marie Osmond (R-UT) | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:25 am | #

Have any of you heard the latest on Kean saying Hastert should resign? Kean is running scared. A Republican would never knife his own in the back unless he was in trouble.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 1:09 am | #

GOP MELTDOWN!!!!

I'm a "conservative" more like a Libertarian. I work actively within the GOP framework.

This is a train wreck. The GOP deserves it. I personally hate them. Let the Democratic reign of horror commence....

smit | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 2:18 am | #

people who compare lewinsky to foley are forgetting something. It's not that the reason it will stick to the gop unlike lewinsky to dems because of popularity. It's because that by that time voters were exhausted with the republicans "stupid/unfair partisanship(for little good reason except that they were pissed they didn't beat clinton)" and few things of little importance could more damage clinton and would highten a sense of witchhunt. And even more it's affair vs leadership covering up sexual harrasment of minors for party purposes.

rtaycher1987 | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 3:36 am | #

Quite a time ago I posted saying that no polls would have real meaning until after Labor Day. Well, it’s a month after Labor Day and just about a month until the election, so I’ll post my comments and predictions.

1. If you want to get a good visual look at trend lines in polls, go to pollster.com. This is put out by a professional pollster and the site also has some great material regarding polling methodology. The proprietor is a Democrat so for those of you who think that means he’s inherently lying or distorting what he puts out (that’s a load of crap, but some of you guys are in need of psychological help) I suggest you go to electionprediction.com – a site that, while not as sophisticated in its presentations, it nevertheless calling it straight – and the owner is a clearly partisan Republican. But his predictive model is strictly non-partisan. While I have methodological quibbles with each they are minor compared to the value of the sites – and the quibbles are not inherently affecting the analyses in a partisan fashion. I do think they dampen the impact of recent trends, but then that’s simply my take on the situation.

2. All polling can do is estimate what would happen if the election were being held as of the time the question is asked. But of course, the election isn’t being held then. If it were the candidates might have been doing things differently. Also, the polls of necessity omit the impact of events yet to happen. A major terrorist attack in the US, the death of Asama bin Laden, another hurricane and bad federal response, great economic news – any or all of these events could happen and change the calculus.

Changing events will have the greatest impact on house races, then the senate and least of all governors’ races.

Which way undecided voters go can have a major impact, but remember that many “undecideds” are really “don’t know, don’t care and won’t vote.” There are several rules of thumb, some of which contradict each other.
a. Undecideds break for the challenger against an incumbent.
b. Undecideds have tendency to retreat to their natural homes. Thus, an undecided Republicans unsure of their vote because of their disgust with the current state of affairs will tend to go back to R; undecided Democrats uncertain about their candidates’ positions on the war on terror will, similarly, tend to go home.
c. Undecideds tend to be more heavily influenced by late breaking news and events.

So my predictions are based on what the polls show now – unless I make a specific comment otherwise. In general, though, if an incumbent who has won before (that is, not Menendez) is running below 50% he/she is in trouble – unless there is a significant 3rd party/Independent involvement. I am also assuming that steady trend lines will continue. (That is, Ford wins in TN and Brown in OH)

General observations.

The House (OK, I know this is a senate topic, but I'm putting this in here anyway. If you don;t like it, tough): I have heard some lose talk about the Reps losing up to 50 seats because of recent developments (e.g. – Foley’s Follies). There aren’t 50 seats available to the Dems. Looking at Charlie Cook’s latest analysis, there are only about 43 now held by Republicans (or held by an R prior to resignation) that range from Leaning Dem to Leaning Rep.) In order to get close to 50, the Dems would have to win virtually all of them and make healthy inroads in the “Likely Rep.” category. People taking about 50 seats are either dreaming (whether it’s a nightmare or a wet dream depends, obviously, on your outlook) or trying to play the expectations game.

My call: Somewhere between 24-36 seat swing to the Dems. And remember, all you partisan Republicans, most people in the country are not political junkies. Most couldn’t tell you who Nancy Pelosi is, let along be worried about her becoming the speaker.

The Senate
Republican seats just about gone to the Dems: MT, PA, OH, RI Leaning D: TN, True Toss-up: MO. Leaning Rep: VA. NJ is leaning D now.
Comments. Montana: Many people say how conservative Montana is – the majority of it’s senate terms have been held by Dems for quite a time. It’s ot all that conservative. It’s also a state with a very small population. Word-of-mouth works very well there. Anyplace you go there will be people who either know Tester of know someone who does. He’s a real person, not a media caricature. Negative campaigns don’t work quite as well in this kind of situation. Also, the polls have been extremely stable for a couple of months, suggesting that there will be no major changes. Tester wins, by a clear but not big margin.

Pennsylvania: Santorum is gone. He’s an incumbent polling at about 40%. Enough said. Final margin should be between 8-12%.

OH; DeWine gets buried by Bush, Taft, Ney, DeLay, Abramoff, Foley, Hastert . . . Actually he’s been a pretty decent senator and a lot of this is not his fault, but that’s life – and politics. Margin between 5-10%

RI: Chaffee’s father’s ghost can’t save him. (And even if he did win and the senate ended in a 50-50 tie, there’s a good likelihood he’s switch parties.) Unsure about margin – since I think this race is less hardened than others. Probably 6-8%.

TN: The rend line is definitely in Ford’s direction. He’s wages an great campaign and Coker’s has been a disaster. Still TN is a conservative state so I’m not quite as confident here. Still, I think he wins a close race.

MO: Will remain close down to the wire. This may determine the make-up of the senate.

VA: Allen has all but destroyed his presidential chances but he’s still leading. Barring the reinsertion of one or both feet into his mouth, he pulls it out.

NJ; Menendez has pulled back into the lead. Barring more bad news (which is still a real possibility) he can thank his lucky stars for NJ’s being a strong blue state.

MI & WA: These races are all but over – Dems keep these seats. All others stay put. (If Pedersen beats Kyl it will reflect such a strong D mood that Bush gets nothing accomplished at all – and won’t get any conservative judicial nominees through. I’m not holding my breath. Margin should be 8-11%.) Given Bush’s previous disdain for the Dems,. though, he’s gong to have real problems dealing with Congress – and he will make major blunders. No impeachment though.

I’m predicting the Dems end up with 48, 2 go to IINO’s (Independents in name only) and Reps have 49. MO will determine who controls the Senate.

GOVERNORS - Later, I’m too tired

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:14 am | #

That's a good analysis, yehudah.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:49 am | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...b7d71f37f1d36d1

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:09 pm | #

Polls are all over the place, and that shows some of the polls are not sceintific. I do not know which ones, but some are just flat wrong.

Phone polling is cheap, but with the anti-phone solicitor feeling of many voters it is harder than in the past to get people to answer the phones. It create a bias, but I am not certain which way.

Jane Grey | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:14 pm | #

I'm sure glad this Foley scandal isn't hurting the GOP!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/1516...ewsweek/page/2/

"Democrats now outdistance Republicans on every single issue that could decide voters' choices come Nov. 7. In addition to winning--for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll--on the question of which party is more trusted to fight the war on terror (44 to 37 percent) and moral values (42 percent to 36 percent), the Democrats now inspire more trust than the GOP on handling Iraq (47 to 34); the economy (53 to 31); health care (57 to 24); federal spending and the deficit (53 to 29); gas and oil prices (56 to 23); and immigration (43 to 34)."

But hey, Bush had a great month and he's really popular again. Getting better every day!

"33% approval rating"

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:24 pm | #

Nice numbers but can Dems keep it up during October. Probably not.
They still face a difficult task to win the Senate. The House might be already decided with the Foley Scandal.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:29 pm | #

Daniel, the point was that this shows this IS an issue for people. Some like Corey were saying polls showed it wasn't a big deal to the public.

The Senate was always a coin toss. Really, I would be shocked if Democrats won the Senate. But, aside from a few places like South Dakota, Democrats have no real worries in 2008, while Republicans will be playing heavy defense.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:36 pm | #

The really good news for Dems is that they have Virginia as buffer.
Assumed that RI, PEN, OH and MT are already decided.
Of the remaining three Contests they need to win two out of three, difficult but not impossible.
For 2008 you're right, Republicans will playing defense. But can Dems pick a credible candidate for Presidency.
If they pick Hillary, she will loose.
She is simply to liberal and can't connect with Independent Voters.
Again for 2006 I looking more to the House.
Next week "Majority Watch" of RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics will release around 30 to 35 House Polls. Probably we'll then have a better picture of the House Landscape.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 12:54 pm | #

I think it really depends on how many open seats each side has in 2008.

Really, if say all incumbents run for re-election (and they wont), there will actually be rather few seats that are competeive looking right now. But there are many strong Senators, who if they run for re-election wont even have to worry about being re-elected, if they retire their seats can be major races such as Warner, Levin, Harkin, etc.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 1:22 pm | #

Hmm......2008 will be interesting.

Wayne Allard is retiring in Colorado. The renaissance enjoyed by the Colorado Democratic Party will likely take us the state's other senate seat.

The Democrats won't win Maine unless Susan Collins retires. Same with Virginia (if Warner retires) and New Mexico (Pete Domenici).

If the Dems want a decent chance of unseating Norm Coleman, they have to find someone stronger than Al Franken.

The Democrats only have a shot in Oregon if John Kitzhaber runs (and I really doubt that....I think he wants to be governor more).

Of course, Carl Levin, Tom Harkin, ect. could retire. I think South Dakota and Louisiana are the two states to worry about for the Dems.

But enough of that, let's wait for next month's elections......depending on how well the Dems do, a lot of Republicans could announce their intentions to retire in 2008.........l

PROUD DEM | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 2:02 pm | #

I doubt Harkin will retire. Levin will probably stay if he thinks the party will be in the majority.

Daniel, I wouldn't trust those polls.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 2:06 pm | #

I agree PD, its way too early to be talking about 2008 when the 2006 elections still havent passed.

I agree though I think alot of things in 2008 will depend on what the 2006 elections turn out like.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 2:12 pm | #

Yes Kitzhauper has said he is looking more into running for Governor in 2010 than anything else.

Oddly he hinted it might be as an Independent. I think he didnt run for Governor this year because he was betting on Ben Westlund who was a good friend of Kitzhauper's and a ally of his on Kitzhauper's number one issue, Healthcare in Oregon. But he dropped out latter.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 2:14 pm | #

At Americas Debate they have a fantasy election for the 06 races.

All the house and senate races.. You can predict them if you become a member.

Pretty cool

Pretorian | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:04 pm | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...b7d71f37f1d36d1

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:28 pm | #

Kitzhaber would consdier having to to to DC a Fate Worse Than Death (OK, so I exaggerated a bit - but it's not that far off.)

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:31 pm | #

Well I think you have the right idea though yehudah. Its clear he wants to focus on OR issues, working with OR state and local governments. His hearts not set on DC.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:33 pm | #

Tomorrows Senate Debate on "Meet The Press" between Jim Talent and Claire McCaskill could be decisive for the outcome of the Missouri Senate Race.
In previous Debates this cycle like Pen, Ohio, VA, races weren't that much close like Missouri is it now.

Daniel Gruhn | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 1:04 pm
***********

The only people who watch debates like that are political junkies like us. Unless one or the other makes a Gerry Ford type mistake or looks totally inept it will be barely a blip on the radar. That is, it will have an impact only if it generates follow-up coverage.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 4:40 pm | #

The only people who watch debates like that are political junkies like us. Unless one or the other makes a Gerry Ford type mistake or looks totally inept it will be barely a blip on the radar. That is, it will have an impact only if it generates follow-up coverage.

In other words, you expect your candidate to be very, very lackluster.

Admiral_Naismith | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:37 pm | #

The Democrats only have a shot in Oregon if John Kitzhaber runs (and I really doubt that....I think he wants to be governor more).

DeFazio would win, if he wants it. Blumenauer too, probably.

Admiral_Naismith | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:39 pm | #

vote in poll
go to my 4:28 post

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:39 pm | #

I watch debates and they do sometimes end races if it is close enough to the election

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:40 pm | #

Blumenauer wouldnt come close to winning and I doubt DeFazio could just up and beat Smith.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:46 pm | #

You really seriously underestimate Smith.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 5:48 pm | #

Zogby is inaccurate, but at least he isn't as partisan in his poll outcomes as most on the right believe he is. I think these polls tend to put that theory to lie!

Connecticut Liberal | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 6:11 pm | #

Gordon Smith is one of my favorite Senators. I really hope he runs for President one day, especially in '08.

The only one I see beating Smith is Kitzhaber. Smith seems perfect for Oregon. Hes pretty moderate but still pro-life where he wont completely alienate the conservative base.

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:17 pm | #

Admiral:

No, that's not the case. I have no idea how either of them will perform. I can't recall any performances from either. I don't deal in conditioning expectations (unless I'm paid to do it - and i wish someone would - lol).

The remark meant exactly what it means on the surface. "Debates" this late in a campaign on the Sunday talking heads shows are mostly non-events, regardless of who "wins."

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:24 pm | #

Oh my god...speaking of former Oregon governors I just read about ex-Gov (87-91)/Sec. of Trans. (79-81) Neil Goldscmidt. I never knew he had a sexual relationship, in the mid-70s, with a 14 YEAR OLD GIRL. While he was mayor of Portland. He wasnt even prosecuted because the statue of limitations had passed. How sad. He even admitted it yet he cant be prosecuted. Gee I wonder why he waited so long to admit it. I know all this is old news now, but I didnt know about this and is especially interesting given the Mark Foley mess. 14 years old...

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:24 pm | #

Had passed when he admitted it (2004)

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:25 pm | #

Smith is safe in Oregon. I don't think DeFazio wants to give up his seat (especially since he's likely to be a committee chair or head an important sub-committee) for an uncertan race. Blumenauer is too "Portland" for much of the rest of the state.

Smith will not run for president. I think too many of the evangelical base couldn't accept a Mormon. If Romney were to get the nomination and win, Smith might rethink it, but that's quite unlikely to happen.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:28 pm | #

Well I think itd have more to do with Smith's position on gay rights, for one, than being Mormon, but that certainly could be an issue too. Itd sure be something if Smith were the nominee in '08 and two of his own second cousins run for Senator in CO and NM that same year. Nevertheless you could very well see all 3 run for Senator that year. Odd are that 2 will, Smith and Mark Udall being the ones.

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:39 pm | #

Polling is total nonsense, election fraud and manipulation, and provides suspicion of electoral fraud on election day and for people with nothing worth while to say and no facts or opiniions to provide.

This according to 90% of 100 maybe American voting citizens in the Gallby/Viacommie Poll; 000000666 IL Ltd. (parent company).

Damn oligarchies and the conspiracy against non-republicrats.
Want to bet you can bribe a politician with points on a poll or good, well press-at-all? Sort of soft polling and reporting (polling and friendly blog reports read on site).
To speak nothing of SOft Friendships, Beard Women, Screws, and other non-monitary forms of "contribution."
The main guys tend to be insecure.

Are facts possible.

Regards,

Gölök Zoltán Buday
http://www.contact.tmet.org/
"Delusion has been defined by some as a strongly held belief not held in popular thought, so essentially we have pollsters and pop-culture marketeers deciding what is delusional and what is clear thinking, not [even] psychiatrists." -- Black Jester, aka Gölök Z. L. F. Buday.
http://www.quotesz.gzlfb.com/gzlfb.txt

Gölök Z. L. F. Buday | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 7:57 pm | #

Clinton's back, and I suspect for revenge; after all is this not why Clinton would be on every press event under the guise of a charity to make Americans forget about a bombing of a Sudan Merdican factory as Lieberman (imagine this, a lawyer with Lie in his name) loses his nomination, despite his medioric strength. Was he not the impeaching democrat in the Senate?

best

Gölök Zoltán Buday
http://www.contact.tmetonline.net/
http://w3.wild-google-chase.com/
"Whenever the majority of men are not deprived of their property or honor, they live contentedly" -- Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince; Page 79 http://www.quotesz.golokbuday.com/

Gölök Z. L. F. Buday | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 8:11 pm | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...b7d71f37f1d36d1

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 9:09 pm | #

"You really seriously underestimate Smith."

He didn't even do that well in 2002 even though he had no real opponent. He's also a poser (pretending to care about gay rights), and that won't help him much either. He's just lucky there aren't a lot of strong Democrats in Oregon.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 11:13 pm | #

J

Im not sure you know what your talking about.

In 2002 Smith won re-election with 58% of the vote. Winning re-election by 16 points is a pretty good deal.

Also, Smith had major opposition in the Sec. of State of Oregon, also a statewide elected officeholder. Its not like he was a no one.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 11:33 pm | #

I remember watching Bill Bradbury concede in his race for the Senate. He was crying and stuff. I kinda felt sorry for him.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 11:35 pm | #

I mean no one expected it to be close, and it wasnt, but that has alot to do with Smith's strong standing.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.07.06 - 11:44 pm | #

Blumenauer wouldnt come close to winning and I doubt DeFazio could just up and beat Smith.

I'm not a hundred percent on Blumenauer, but I can pretty much guarantee that The Faz could have any statewide office he took the trouble to ask for. I live in Douglas County, in his district, and there's a lot of gun-toting, conservative Republican loggers who talk about SHOOTING Democrats, and who love The Faz. He's one of the few politicians I know who is popular with both environmentalists and with people whose jobs depend on resource extraction industries. He is an expert at dismissing Republican divisive myths (like the one about how you supposedly can't have both jobs and land conservation).

Smith is among the best of a bad lot, and if America wasn't at the point where continuing to support federal Republicans is itself a character flaw, I might like him myself, just a bit. But Oregon is a blue state and getting bluer, one of a select few that actually gave Kerry a bigger margin than Gore. And Smith is the only Republican left who holds statewide office here.

The big question is whether either Kitzhaber or The Faz care to go for the job. One reason The Faz might not, and hasn't before, is he has too much integrity to whore himself to special interests to get the big bucks needed for a statewide campaign. It's a pity if that stops him--America NEEDS more politicians like The Faz.

Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 12:22 am | #

The only reason Kerry won by a wider margin than Gore is because of 2000 Nader voters going to Kerry.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 12:46 am | #

Well at least we can all agree that David Wu isnt likely to win statewide office.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 12:47 am | #

I was in Oregon today... lovely place really. But apparently Portland schools have terrible problems.

Phil | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 1:05 am | #

Hi Phil! Why were you in OR? Did you pass though my city Longview/Kelso going down there?

Anyways Ive got church in the morning. Good night

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 1:15 am | #

Hey Kyle!

I was appearing on a Game Show in Oregon called "High Five" - our Knowledge Bowl team was invited, it's just basic trivia ring in style.

Didn't go through Longview or Kelso I think, but I did see lots of Michael Messmore signs. You helping out with his campaign Kyle?

Phil | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 1:17 am | #

Watching the Ford/Corker debate right now on C-SPAN and Ford is very impressive to me. He has a great grasp on the issues, a great speaker, and pretty moderate which I really like.

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 1:56 am | #

Ford is so passionate about politics, even if he were to lose this race I just cannot see him retiring from public life. Whether its getting a post in a Democratic presidential admin. in 08 (if a Dem wins) or run for Governor in 2010 or whatever...I just dont see him going away. Hes young, hes passionate, he fits Tennessee, hes got a bright future win or lose.

TX Brian | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 2:05 am | #

It's funny - Portland schools are in a real mess, one of the reasons being the school board's failure to pull in its financial horns after the various initiative went through (especially measures 47 and 51). Who was on teh school board then? Ron Saxton. Admittedly I didn't follow the Board all that much - I don't live in the district and I have no kids (or any hypothetical grandkids ) in the system. I don't know what role he played on the Board inthe late 90's when he was on (I think he served from 1197 - 2001) but if Kulongowski weren't so insistent on having a positive campign I'm sure we'd hear a lot.

But unless Kulongowski counter-attacks, Sacton will win.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 2:21 am | #

A senator or represenaive who switches parties is nothing but a damn back stabber.

paul | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 2:26 am | #

So tell me, Paul, what is a person to do if his/her party changes its positions, or it he/she does? Be honor bound to stay with that which is now a mistake?

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 2:45 am | #

Corey is a PUSSY!!!!!!

greg9 | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 4:01 am | #

"

In 2002 Smith won re-election with 58% of the vote. Winning re-election by 16 points is a pretty good deal."

Not in a good GOP year, and not when your opponent really doesn't have much of a chance. He has also repeatedly voted for anti-gay legislation, all while claiming to be moderate, which doesn't really work that well these days. Ron Wyden has always voted against all anti-gay legislation, and he has never had a problem winning reelection.

I wonder about Darlene Hooley. Her opponent is spending big money, as is the Swift Boat people, and no one is paying attention to her race. I think she may lose.

"

Watching the Ford/Corker debate right now on C-SPAN and Ford is very impressive to me. He has a great grasp on the issues, a great speaker, and pretty moderate which I really like."

I agree. Too bad debates don't make a difference, because if they did, he'd win in a heartbeat. Corker is excerable as a speaker, and a politician.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 4:24 am | #

Hooley's district is quite competetive, except when she's running. She is a great campaigner and has superb constituent service. Every election the R's trot out someone they think can give her a close race and every election she wins comfortably. Ericson may be spending millions of his own money but Hooley also has lots of funds and some excellent TV spots. Hooley wins by at least 8%, probably more.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 1:31 pm | #

Yeah if Hooley was retiring or seeking other office OR-5 would be a prime target for the GOP, but its very unlikely she will be defeated.

I think the OR GOP in 2004 made a big mistake by not nominating Jackie Winter to run against Hooley. Would she have won? Probably not but it would have been even closer.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 3:34 pm | #

And I must say I am so sick of ads run by Mike Erickson and Darleen Hooley. My TV waves are burried in them and they probably account for more than half the political TV ads on. Ron Saxtons not far behind. And I dont even live in OR!

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 3:45 pm | #

Where is Gunzy????

Anonymous | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 3:52 pm | #

Kyle:

Agree with you that Winter would have been a strong candidate. If Hooley retires and Jackie runs, she would have an excellent shot, but can she get through a Repulican primary? The evidence suggests not.

yehudah | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 4:09 pm | #

Sorry, I'm not buying those RI numbers. But then again, both Whitehouse and Chafee will be good in the Senate. So, se la vie.

Progressives of all affiliations should go out and fight for Ford, Webb, and Brown. Casey, Mendez, Sanders, and Tester can stand on their own. Whitehouse seems to be doing well, but Chafee, again, isn't all that objectionable.

Ragnar Danashold | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 4:12 pm | #

Steele is closing

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 4:16 pm | #

Yehudah,

I think its possible if Winter would have responded to Jim Zupanic's attacks basically calling her a RINO because she voted to raise some taxes.

Kyle | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 5:02 pm | #

Jackie Winter may not even win reelection to the state senate this year, much less election to the US House.

TimC | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 6:31 pm | #

I easily buy the RI numbers. I watched Chafee on Bill Maher on Fri. While I've always been wary of most polls of insiders about politicians, I have to say, I can see why he was voted one of the dumbest senators. He looked terrified the whole interview and was fairly unimpressive throughout. Now, I have not seen AG Whitehouse in any venue, but I can't imagine he's below Chafee in the charisma or intelligence factor.

VCUMIKE | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 7:49 pm | #

yes imposter balls, here you go. But Go Cardin.

http://blogs.washingtontimes.com...politics/? p=631

balls | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:00 pm | #

I'm apt to believe the Gallup and Mason-Dixon polls as opposed to the others, due to their conservative slant. I think Cardin has solidified his lead. Have any polls thus far even had Steele leading?

VCUMIKE | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:04 pm | #

It's way too big of a turnaround without any significant event associated with it, unless beating the Conservative maniac makes the GOP "base" poll agianst him. If the numbers are true, I don't think they'll hold on election day.

But what do I know? I know policy and North Carolina, and I guess on everything else.

Ragnar Danashold | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:05 pm | #

On the whole, we have a choice between two somewhat differant progressive candidates in Connecticut and RI, so I don't mind who comes out on top.

However, I'm getting active for Webb and Ford. We need them to win.

But it is late, and my people are sleepy, so I must bid you a fond goodnight.

Seek Peace, Fly High, Find Love.

Ragnar Danashold | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:09 pm | #

"yes imposter balls, here you go. But Go Cardin."

So Steele is 4 points behind in a poll by his own party, and this shows he's closing?

Really?

Pathetic.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:09 pm | #

BTW, his big campaign misstep recently (blasting Cardin for taking money from drug companies, even though he had taken money from them A DAY EARLIER) is going to cost him, I bet.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 8:10 pm | #

vote in poll
http://www.imedialearn.com/ imedi...b7d71f37f1d36d1

Rep for Wyo. | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 9:51 pm | #

I saw Chafee on the Maher thing as well, and yeah, he did look like a moron, and a jerk too.

Don't get me wrong, I very much want him to be reelected for partisan reasons and thus, was very supportive of his candidacy in the primary, but if he were to unfortuantely lose, my party would be better off without him.

As for Sheldon Whitehouse, I also have not seen much of him, but Democrat Socalist Dave, a Rhode Islander, has described him in the past as "John Kerry without the charisma."

So, in a battle of charisma and ability to connect (if not on intelligence) I think Chafee would probably have the edge.

Corey | Email | Homepage | 10.08.06 - 11:18 pm | #

I keep hearing over and over that McCaskill and Ford wiped the floor with their GOP opponents on the debates this weekend. Good for them!

Unfortunately this North Korea thing will make the media focus solely on that issue and they will tell people they have to vote for the GOP or otherwise they support terrorists.

J | Email | Homepage | 10.09.06 - 1:08 am | #

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