heels, sox & steelers
I vote we trade a first rounder and a pick to be named at a later date for Kevin Faulk.
As usual with Steeler nation, the 400 carry pace is blown way out of proportion.
It is 2 games!
It is only 25 carries!
23 carries per game in 2 games is a projection of 368.
There will be games when he only gets 15 carries and other when he gets 30.
Calm down Steeler Fans.
Mike,
We need somthing to angst about. Things are going too smoothly.
Plus, if we can get Tony Hunt for a mere first-rounder, it won't matter.
Seriously, I don't care about the carries through two games. What concerns me is when Tomlin says "until the wheels come off." That's a tad troubling.
368 isn't exactly a wonderful workload either.
I agree that we're playing in small sample size theater here as well, but just from a financial standpoint we shouldn't be running Willie in excess of 370 carries a season. The good news is Willie, as sort of a boom-bust guy, generally sucks against good run defenses. So as soon as we start playing teams like the Ravens and Pats, we'll be forced to pass, because Willie will be getting like 2 yards a carry...
Uhh, perhaps I should've said the "good" news...
One of the nice things about being a Steelers fan is all of the great blogs you get to read. We've got this blog, the AOL fanhouse blog, the postgameheroes site that grades the O-line, Adam's blog, and the SB Nation blog.
That's alot of blogs and alot of the word "blog" in one comment.
Willie will be fine, I don't see him reaching the 370 carry mark at all. The first five games may be a breeze, but soon enough the Steelers and Tomlin are going to have to throw the ball more than 15 times a game. Once the Steelers hit games against the Bengals and Patriots they will have to duke it out in the air to stay in the game. As a vivid Steelers fan, I would like to see the 4 TD performance out of Ben every week and a 100 plus 2 TD's out of Parker, but I guess we will have to pick the other teams poison.
I'm familiar with the 370 stat. I also know that from 2001-06, we've averaged 529 rush plays per season (51.23% of all offensive plays). Looking at our most successful seasons over that stretch, though (2001, 2004, 2005) yields an average of 582 rush plays per season (57.52% of overall).
I'm not advocating that we lock in on a certain percentage of run to pass. But it's evident that our better, dominating teams were able to close out games with strong running in the second halves, at the very least.
The answer? Run FWP hard in the first halves, and spell him well in the second. My observation has been that in these games where we build substantial leads, we might be wise to start pulling both Ben and FWP earlier, and to spell FWP earlier in the second half.
If we run FWP to the max, 370, that would mean limiting him to 21 rush plays per game from here on out. If we target a 57% rush mix (theoretically), that would be 616 rushes total for the Steelers, 370 by FWP, and 246 by others. In other words, 16 rushes by other backs from here on out. Again, not hard targets, but I would develop a rushing strategy based on that.
Even if FWP gets the lion's share in 1Q and 2Q action, and maybe splits the 3Q and part of the 4Q, 16 rushes by other backs gives us a lot of leeway while keeping FWP fresh.
Davenport has looked, well, bulkier in a good way these past two games, bulling his way for some yards. I'd probably spell FWP mostly with Dookie based on that, but if we're activating Davis, why not alternate the two as FB and HB? Or run Davis as HB out of a single back set? Lastly, I don't know if it's feasible to activate Russell, but I for one would love to see what this kid has, especially as the year grinds on.
Consider these "other back" mixes early in the season:
Davenport - 8
Davis - 4
Others (Ben, WRs) - 3
And then middle season, with Davis and Dook alternating more:
Davenport - 7
Davis - 6
Others - 3
Finally, getting Russell into the act:
Davenport - 4
Davis - 2
Russell - 7
Others - 3
JMO on a feasible rotation to rest FWP, get some other backs into the mix, and see what we have in Russell. Knowing Tomlin, he's got far more extensive notes on RB mixes than this, though. (Well, "knowing" Tomlin from the media, not knowing him up close and buddy-buddy like Ryan.)
I'm sure that Tomlin is aware of the 370 benchmark and will keep FWP away from it. It's not as though the Steelers don't have other talented backs. Look for more rest for FWP as the season wears on.
Interested to hear people's thoughts on this
I love the fact that pulling FWP and Ben in games where we obtain "substantial leads" can actually be brought up and I don't even cringe at the potential unlikeliness of that happening.
A 2-0 start is a beautiful thing.
I am still upset that noone picked up on the fact that the return man for the Bills stepped out of bounds, that they had to take too many time outs in the first half, and that they didn't finish drives off and get the TD`s.
The only way they compete against the best teams in the AFC is to pay attention to such details. I think Belichick can beat you just by doing better in the above categories alone. Well, any superior coach can.
It's not nitpicking. I may be a lot to ask of a team in a coaching transition year to be "perfect" but its the cost of admission to the Super Bowl. And rightly or wrongly, that's my goal for the Steelers this year. I am sure they will be thrilled to hear of it..wink.
Interested to hear people's thoughts on this..(link to Ward's restaurant troubles)
I sort of chuckled when they said that the restaurant had profits of 1 million dollars. Right. I assume this is a relatively new business and also that they were closed for some time with the boiler problem.
That kind of profit margin on a new restaurant? Pardon me if I am skeptical. No..not skeptical, that is total BS. I know that, in Canada, 80% of new businesses fail to make a profit in their first 2 years of operation. The norm is around year 4. Plus restaurants are one of the riskiest investments and most volatile businesses in God's green earth, so they might not turn a profit for even a longer period of time.
As for the rest, who knows? I guess the intrepid Pittsburgh reporters will keep us all up to date.
Rob D - to channel Lloyd Dobler for a second, you must chill. Obviously you are not nitpicking when it comes to the non-challenge, but I swear to god that Steeler fans value first half timeouts as though they are worth 7 points each when you cash them in unused at the end of 30 minutes.
Coaching perfection? If you win 26-3, that's perfect enough. So is 34-7. Matter of fact, it might be safe to say that no one has had a perfect coaching year since 1972, and yet somehow, some way, some team with a few losses -- yes, outright losses, to say nothing of wasted timeouts -- on its score sheet manages to win the SB every darn year. To paraphrase Tomlin (and even Ed B. from this week, though it pains me to cite him for anything): you try to be perfect, but you know you won't ever reach the goal; but this also isn't college, where style points do count.
Obviously, no coaching error is a good thing, but if you can't cut the new staff some slack as they work to become more perfect even after two easy victories, well, I can't help you. Why don't you try to visualize yourself as a Ravens fan or Bengals fan, or flash back to 2006 and try and remember what it feels like to have already betrayed far more fatal, glaring weaknesses in Week #2 than some misused first half timeouts and mistakes? This might be an especially useful exercise when the net effect of those mistakes was to dial the potential margin of victory from 42 points all the way down to 23.
Of course the real reason I came here was to call attention to this FO article on Patrick Willis -- mostly for the people who have been skeptical of Timmons potential because of any current difficulties he has with shedding blocks and holding up at the point.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com...ay-counts/5502/
Thus says Michael David Smith:
"Let’s start with the negatives. Like a lot of young and athletic linebackers, Willis has work to do in learning how to get off blocks. On a nine-yard run by Steven Jackson in the first quarter, left tackle Alex Barron blocked Willis one-on-one, and Jackson ran right behind Barron’s block. Willis didn’t read the play quickly enough, and once Barron (who has 75 pounds on Willis) got a body on him, Willis had no chance.
"OK, you say, so a 315-pound tackle on a 240-pound linebacker is a mismatch. But the very next play should concern 49ers fans, as Rams tight end Joe Klopfenstein pushed Willis back five yards on a Jackson run. Klopfenstein had a couple of solid blocks on Willis Sunday. Willis will never have the strength to overpower Barron one-on-one, and he might not even have the strength to overpower Klopfenstein. But the 49ers need Willis to learn to use his quickness to avoid needing to overpower bigger players.
"In other words, against the run, Willis’ big weakness is the same big weakness for most fast linebackers. But how does he play against the pass? In coverage, there were times when Willis looked a little out of place. On a third-and-9 on the Rams’ first drive, for instance, Willis just kind of stood there in coverage, apparently not quite sure what to do. That happened a few times."
MDS then goes on to predict that Willis will be a great player for years to come, esp. once he eradicates some of the above flaws.
I am trying to imagine what their level of effort would have yielded them against an actual contending team rather than the Browns and the Bills each of whom have no real claim on being an elite team. I think not getting into the end zone would be fatal against NE or Indy. I believe that not having a time out cost them a chance for a TD against the Bills. The inability of the Steelers staff to pick up on the fact the Bills returner stepped out of bounds is inattention to very important detail.
I am holding them to a very high level because I think they have the talent to challenge the best, but ONLY if they do all the little things right. Bill Cowher neglected those details last year and it cost us a playoff spot, IMO.
Fortunately, Tomlin is a guy who understands the need to improve every week and I am sure he realizes we haven't played a balanced team in a closely contended game yet. We are unlikely to play one until after the bye. Great for us.
To answer Jesse's question, I'm with Rob D. My wife's family has been in the restaurant business for 20-something years. Restaurants are a bitch to run successfully, and for Hines to allegedly make a million big ones in less than a year is, well, bullshit.
Hell, maybe he's guilty of something, but I don't think it's embezzling that much dough. For now, it seems like a non-story.
You said "Fortunately, Tomlin is a guy who understands the need to improve every week and I am sure he realizes we haven't played a balanced team in a closely contended game yet. We are unlikely to play one until after the bye. Great for us."
I agree that Tomlin is a detail guy -- and when he says that he is his own toughest critic, I believe him -- which is why rapping him on the knuckles here seems unnecessary to me based on results-to-date.
As for potentially costly errors, I didn't see much of the Titans-Colts game, but it looks from the score like the Colts were anything but perfect. And San Diego? Yes, they were playing a motivated Pats' team on the road and three time zones away, but wow. They didn't even belong on the same field. If using up timeouts in the first half is a bad thing, what is it to get blown out like that?
I'm not trying to be too harsh on you or trying to overreact to what I perceive as your overreaction. So maybe I should just shut up now. But as for the opponents thus far, we can look at Ryan's piece on SCI today about FO's research into what it means to beat bad teams handily.
http://steelers.scout.com/2/681453.html
And as for how bad the Browns and Bills are, yes, I agree. But 51 points at least shows the Clevelanders to be not quite as hapless against the Jekyll and Hyde Bengals D as they looked against our dominating D; and the Bills almost beat Denver, so we're not talking about utter jokes for opponents here based on the very limited amount of evidence out there this early.
Great observations, Rob. I don't think we're at the efficiency or consistency of execution that the Patriots are, but then again, who else is? We're certainly playing better than a lot of folks expected, and while the LOC is an issue, maybe it's been a good thing to work out the kinks against teams we are supposed to beat. So, yeah, I'd love to see us beat these guys by 73-0; maybe later in the season we will.
I always think of the football season as "How is the team playing now?" held up against a long-view dynamic. Great as the Patriots are playing now, is it reasonable to assume that this will continue unabated for the rest of the season? That the Patriots should go 19-0, as Tony Kornheiser effusively suggests? Is it logical that we will never solve the kinks in the offensive engine that have us taking TOs when we shouldn't, and return 3s instead of 7s in the RZ?
Taking the Patriots and Steelers head to head: the Patriots have quite a few 30+ members of their defense, including Vrabel, Adalius, the Miraculous One, Colvin, Roidney Harrison, and his replacement James Sanders. It's an aging defense, and personally I feel it will begin to degrade as the season wears on. Randy Moss made my scepticism look silly, but will he still be splitting triple coverage in December? Can the Golden Boy continue to elude serious injury forever? I find the idea that this team simply goes on without a snag both insufferable and unlikely.
The Steelers may not look as good now, but again, what about December? 2005, IIRC, we opened similarly, beating up middlin' foes, then slumping with Ben's injuries and some harder opponents, before putting it all together. The question for the Steelers is how we can improve; I think the Patriots have started at the zenith with nowhere but down to go.
As well, I think both coordinators are holding back their tastiest stuff for the big games. So maybe when we play the Pats, BA and the Wizard will have a few things we haven't seen...
The "Jumping to Conclusions Mat" post at Fanhouse had it pretty much right:
Two weeks is just 1/8th of the way into the NFL season ... but that doesn't mean it's too soon to jump to some conclusions. Actually, it probably is too early ... but what is the NFL season for, if not for wild speculation based on very small sample sizes?
It's too early to tell if these mini mistakes are indicative of larger quality control issues. I'm not worried because they're not going 16-0.
I'm not trying to be too harsh on you or trying to overreact to what I perceive as your overreaction. So maybe I should just shut up now.
--Matt
No, no..not at all! I think we all may go overboard at times (and its possible I have on this one..) but I am taking in your views with interest. I walk around all week with noone to vent to about the Steelers so this form sometimes gets the overflow...wink...My extreme interest in their fortunes this year is a function of looking at this team as a legit threat to go all the way. My reaction is to turn over every stone that seems to be blocking the way and examining what's underneath.
I am very happy with the results overall but I feel the room for improvement is in areas that CAN be controlled rather than say,,just not having the talent to compete.
I may be naive, but I don't think the Patsies are as good as everyone seems to think. I also don't believe the Chargers are as bad (see 14-2). This from the ESPN Page 2 TMQ article was interesting:
"Consider the Sunday night contest. New England had played San Diego just four games back, in the January 2007 postseason. Perhaps Belichick's cameraman was illegally taping the Chargers that day, and perhaps Belichick illegally (again) used the information against the Chargers on Sunday night. The San Diego coaching staff has changed since the playoff game, so presumably its defensive calls are different. But San Diego's new defensive coordinator, Ted Cottrell, was defensive coordinator for the Bills and Jets, both AFC East teams, in the Belichick period...was New England cheating again Sunday night, when the Patriots advanced the ball with such ease it seemed they knew what defense San Diego would be in?"
As every team in the AFC East (and the league) scrambles to completely overhaul their defensive signals, we'll see if they continue blow teams out - after 3-6 games and then at the tail end of the season (w/ the oldest roster in the league).
If they finish 13-3, that would speak to their "talent" and "execution" - but remember, they surely have developed a deep database of tendencies for defensive playcalling illegally gleaned that will benefit them far into the future.
I anyone thinks Bellicheat is giving up all vital and related information to this issue to Goodell based on his "word", think again. His word is as good as the man.
Ladies and gentleman.may Ryan have a volunteer from the audience? Its time for the rope trick...
hee hee
Ok, Sepulveda and now Frazier. I can see it now, Ryan has Colbert in a Vulcan mind meld... If you can get me a pair of seat licenses for $50, I'll be buy you a beer...
Re: FWP - Aren't these the same folks that doubted:
- the hiring of Tomlin
- the move to 'open up the offense'
- the selection of Timmons
- the failure to select Carriker, Tony Hunt etc...
- cutting Okobi
- starting Deshea
- keeping Najeh
- trading up for and selecting a punter
- signing Allen Rossum
Shhh don't tell anyone, but we're 2-0, and I'd say thus far Ryan's classmate seems to know what he is doing
Also, ...my mom called tonight....furious (not at me) at the fact that Kordell was on Deal or No Deal wearing a Steeler jersey. She does not believe that he 'deserves' to wear it. Personally I don't watch it...
Talk amongst yourselves....
Wow. Just wow. Sepulveda caught me off guard, but this?
The "stepping out of bounds" bit was a very good thing. Now we know it will never happen again.
The Mrs. was watching Deal or No Deal last night (I despise the show). She's like... "Is that Jerry Rice?" Points for her. Then she said "Is that Santonio Holmes?" due to the 10 jersey. Hard to see the resemblance, though he was sitting off to the side behind some other guys. And at least he wasn't wearing one of those sweaters of his...
Question of the Day: If Mike Tomlin leads the Steelers into the play-offs this year with essentially the same team Bill Cowher had last year, will Cowher's coaching skills be put under more scrutiny? Could Tomlin's success put a crimp on Cowher's return to the NFL sidelines?
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/0.../819022-
150.stm
Randy,
No. Cowher's legacy is solid. Best record in the NFL during his tenure. Two SuperBowl appearences and one win, as well as a gaggle of Division championships and AFC Championship game appearences. If you check out the roster for some of the Kordell teams that went to the AFC title game, you'll realize it was a miracle to even get there.
Randy, given all the crappy NFL head coaches, it will be very easy for Cowher to get a job, no matter what the Steelers do this year. Would you rather have any of these guys over Cowher: Coughlin, Jauron, Crennel, Turner, Edwards, Cameron, Childress? Plus, there are a number of good coaches who are on the hot seat: Gibbs, Fox, Del Rio.
BTW, Cowher also made the playoffs his first year and had a very good start to his career. Tomlin will have to win a Super Bowl or two to be considered in his class. I do like everything I've seen so far, though, and don't see an ceiling for how good Tomli could be.
del rio is not a good coach.
not even close.
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