This could be. On the other hand, certain cities may just attract the college educated who marry later and are more likely to be women.

I was discussing just that issue at my blog recently, but referencing Tim Harford's writings on the behavior of black women in places where a high percentage of black men are incarcerated. Whiskey responded that Harford was wrong and that black women prefer thugs. I wonder if there's data on how the disclosure that a man has been arrested affects his chances with women on online dating sites, similar to the studies we've seen on racial preferences.

Hemlines rising and falling... it's like the stock market going up or down. Basically meaningless.

If you read the monograph that started this whole business, Richardson & Kroeber 1940, you'll see that the period between peaks or troughs is pretty long up until the late 19th / early 20th C, and that the curve is pretty sinusoidal. (This was back when cultural anthropologists measured things and plotted graphs.)

The steady rising and falling of hemlines was not in response to a steady rising and falling in the M:F ratio. And the even more erratic pattern in the 20th C doesn't reflect a more erratic undulation of the M:F ratio. So, changes in demography tell us nothing about fashion changes -- they change for their own sake, irrespective of whatever else is going on. That's why it's called fashion.

Minor point to what the post is about. But just FYI, since apparently not many people have seen the original hemline graphs.

I wonder if there's data on how the disclosure that a man has been arrested affects his chances with women on online dating sites

anecdote time: when i tell women i spent a night in jail they get noticeably more animated, leaning in closer, smiling wider. it's like chick crack.

agnostic --

Aside from the hemline vs. male/female ratio relationship (I take no position on that till I look at a time series), there are strong evolutionary reasons to presume that women will become more forward when the male-to-female ratio is low.

Case study #1: Vassar college. Formerly an all girls school. Last I checked, the ratio was about 66/33 female/male.

With predictable consequences.

http://www.miscellanynews.com/2....ampus- 1.1573390

This column is dedicated to all those single, straight Vassar women out there. I hear your roar. While, in the classroom and in the field, Vassar’s female-empowered environment encourages women to live the confidence and assertiveness typically reserved for men, when it comes to the sexual arena, Vassar’s gender ratio takes on a whole different meaning.

Take your typical Town House party. Since most college students are not of age, and thus not at bars, this party is the social hub of the night. The yard and interior are swarmed with people.

If you’re a guy, probably five out of the 20 girls you have been flirting with are there. You have five potential pursuits. These options infuse you with a sense of confidence. If your game does not work on the first girl, well, at least you have four more chances to get it right. Not to mention the girls are probably horny and available simply by default of the Vassar ratio. Statistically speaking, your chances look good.

If you’re a girl, maybe one or two out of the five guys you’ve been flirting with are there. You have two potential pursuits. But wait, there are three other girls already eyeing one of the guys. You look over at the other one and see him chatting it up with a couple girls. Statistically speaking, the odds do not look good.

What are we to make of this discrepancy? As a woman, I do not feel comfortable trying to appropriate the male experience. What I can say, through observation and conversation with my male friends, is that straight men at Vassar have a much easier time navigating Vassar’s hook-up culture. Let me expand upon this. If you’re a female looking to hook up, there are a number of added obstacles you will probably face simply because of your gender. I believe that the two following scenarios capture a generalized representation of the frustrations of Vassar women.

Roissy,

I think you are a complete and total liar. Every word you say is bullshit, including the words "and" and "the."

Oh more forward, sure. What I mean is that you can't infer that from fashion, but by surveying girls for # of sex partners, "how willing" questionnaires, etc.

The rise and fall of thongs / low-rise jeans / tramp stamps occurred while measurable promiscuity declined monotonically. It's just fashion.

The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness

When you are in short supply, you are happy since there is plenty of demand for you.

roissy says:

anecdote time: when i tell women i spent a night in jail they get noticeably more animated, leaning in closer, smiling wider. it's like chick crack.

De gustebus non est disputandum!

Buy not the cow when the milk gushes freely.

alphadominance says:

Buy not the cow when the milk gushes freely.

It seems likely to me that males, and females, vary in their likelihood of wanting and accepting no strings attached sex and putting out respectively.

That is, there will be a range of predilections and a range of types of the opposite sex that different individuals will target.

Of course, in an environment of oversupply of females, those females who are loath to put out will likely do so if the right bait is offered and their willingness to do so will likely increase with age. After all, they have to have sex to have offspring.

In an environment where women are in short supply, it is relatively easy for "chaste" women to police things and ensure that "loose" women do not spoil things for everyone. However, in an environment where women are in oversupply, "chaste" women are under pressure.

A predictor of whether women are in short supply or not would be their average behavior in that regard.

">Someone should go undercover


The answer is yes and no. The pastorate is a men’s club. But almost every other area of church life is dominated by women. Whenever large numbers of Christians gather, men are never in the majority. Not at revivals. Not at crusades. Not at conferences. Not at retreats. Not at concerts. With the exception of men’s events and pastoral conferences, can you think of any large gathering of Christians that attracts more men than women?

Visit the church during the week, and you’ll find most of the people working there are female. Drop in on a committee meeting, and you’ll find a majority of the volunteers are women—unless it’s that small bastion of male presence, the building committee. Look over the leadership roster: the pastor is likely to be a man, but at least two-thirds of the ministry leaders will be women. Examine the sign-up sheets for volunteer work, prayer, Sunday school, and nursery duty. You’ll be lucky to see more than a couple of men’s names on these lists. One pastor recently told me, “If it weren’t for the postman, every visitor to the church during the week would be a woman.”

The answer is yes and no. The pastorate is a men’s club. But almost every other area of church life is dominated by women. Whenever large numbers of Christians gather, men are never in the majority. Not at revivals. Not at crusades. Not at conferences. Not at retreats. Not at concerts. With the exception of men’s events and pastoral conferences, can you think of any large gathering of Christians that attracts more men than women?


Men tend to approach the world from a logical viewpoint and like linear evidentiary based arguments as their rationale behind their worldview. Many of us are drawn to a secular or agnostic worldview because of this. Faith is the antithesis of logic, it forms beliefs/hypotheses regardless of evidence, a more emotional/intuitive state of mind. This is incidentally the way women's minds are biased so it makes sense more women will accept non-rational arguments to support their worldview.

It seems likely to me that males, and females, vary in their likelihood of wanting and accepting no strings attached sex and putting out respectively.

That is, there will be a range of predilections and a range of types of the opposite sex that different individuals will target.

Indeed for men at least the value of the long-term beta or short-term alpha type reproductive strategies depends on the ratio of men practicing each. A normal ratio would be 10% alpha give or take, so a deviation from the norm in either direction would increase the success of the alternate strategy.