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I was hoping you would comment on the effect Ida would have. I agree with you that the stage is being set for some fun winter weather!
Great post. Found it from the Maryland Weather blog. Looking forward to watching the patter develop this week. Gone from sunny all week to a hurricane/coastal low. Should be interesting.
Mr. Foot I just don't see a pattern change till maybe early December, I am sick of this warm weather. lol
Mr. Foot
We were discussing your forecast on MD News Alerts. People were excited for your forecast. Multiple people stated your accuracly.
Your a very popular guy.
Well thanks for the vote of confidence Matt! Now if we can just get Baltimore County Schools to recategorize the site to it's designation from last year as "News and Media" then readers in each MD school system will have equal access.
I'd like to advance the site a few notches into the wikispace realm so we can have multiple collaborators like yourself, Mr. B and others. That can help raise the bar for those school systems looking to see more rigor and relevance.
Note to Grant Y: Great to hear from you bud! I miss our chats in homeroom and am glad to hear you are doing well. Thanks for keeping in touch. Your trip west on Wednesday should be OK, influences from Ida will mainly stay to our south and east for now. Warm wishes for a great birthday trip!
Mr Foot,
I've seen at least one forecaster predict the recent rise in the el nino will bring above average temps in the east through Decemeber. What are your thoughts on that?
Sam
Mr. Foot, thanks for your great response to the question regarding the increased supply of warmer weather. Your data to support your projections and hypothesis is outstanding - when do you sleep!!
My classes continue to monitor your background data, and I have set up an Excel chart to record the weather data beginning the 15th; the 30th-5th are highlighted at present. Thanks again for a great opportunity to involve our students in good scientific inquiry.
Mr Foot,
Thanks for your detailed response to my question regarding the recent rise in the El Nino. You have clarified things nicely and kept my hopes alive for many powder days this coming winter.
Sam
Sam and Pat:
That you take the time to read and understand the hard science is what makes doing this worth the time invested.
Based on what we are all seeing happen along the Mid-Atlantic (55 mph gusts in the Chesapeake, Winter Weather Advisory in western Virginia, Coastal Flood Watches and Warnings...)Do I have creative license to claim this qualifies as a "smackdown storm?"
It sure it smacking the heck out of the coast. Just look at the pressure gradient between the high and low. Look at the placement of that HIGH, how beautiful is that... right on top of Upstate New York. I am losing track of just how many coastal storms have rolled along like this. But it seems more and more this pattern is resembling that of 1957-58. If I recall my history, there were 3 giant storms that season (Dec-Feb-Mar).
A clarification on what significant winter weather technically means...
if I were to strictly adhere to the NWS definition, then "significant" means 4 or more inches in a 12 hour period (assuming they have not changed that designation). So snow in the VA highlands does not qualify as it is less than 4 inches.
If you completed your winterizing preparations prior to this, you are in good shape. Otherwise, you'll have to hold on to hope that a sunny, warm weekend can sneak in somewhere soon.
I suspect a sunny warm weekend will sneak in for at least a good part of this weekend, if not the entire weekend. It may be needed too because if we get any strong winds in the next two days, there will certainly be some yard cleaning up to do. I would not be surprised if trees come down in the next two days due to the wet ground and winds. When I look at the radar, I can only imagine what the storm would have been like if it had been a snow storm. Here's to hoping we get a few more of these strong coastal lows this winter. I believe this is the third consecutive month with a big coastal low. If these things keep up, we will certainly have a winter to remember!
If memory serves me right, I believe there is a correlation between years where MD was impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane and the following winters being above normal snow. Does anyone have any data to support this? I would assume that the mechanism that force tropical storms toward the mid atlantic would also work towards causing coastal noreasters in the Winter.
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