I've said it before, but I think I should say it again: I like Larry Walker; he's simply a good baseball player, the kind of guy you want in your clubhouse, and, oh, yeah, he can hit, field, and knows how to run the bases.
I know he has the tendancy to get hurt, but, when healthy, he's a great guy to have around--plain and simple!
Offensively, this fills the only hole I see on the Cards (that corner outfield spot that never seemed to be settled) with a quality veteran.
Will this trade affect the resigning of Renteria?
IT MAKES NO "SABR" SENSE, NO "MONEYBALL" SENSE, BUT I LOVE THIS MOVE!!!
I'M FEELING WILL CLARK/CEASAR CENDENO LOVIN' COMIN' ON - BUT IF WALKER POSTS A 1+ OPS IN AUG/OCT - NOT THAT I EXPECT IT - IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING....
I HATE TO SOUND LIKE AN "OLD SCHOOL" BASEBALL GUY, BUT I HAVE A FEELING THAT HIS PRODUCTION WILL DEVIATE FROM HIS "NORM" DEPENDING ON WHERE HE HITS IN THE LINEUP!!!
(WHICH REMINDS ME... I SAW A STUDY, -ON HARDBALL TIMES MAYBE? - THAT LAMBASTED EDMONDS FOR NOT PRODUCING ENOUGH RBI!!! I'M THINKING, HOW MANY RBI CAN A GUY HITTING IN FRONT OF PA/SCOTT GET???!!!
I WILL LIKE THIS DEAL A LOT LESS IF WE'RE GIVING UP NAVERSON, HOWEVER - WHERE DID YOU HEAR THAT BRIAN???!!!
BTW- GREAT ARTICLE ON HARDBALLTIMES!!!
It's funny, last week my girlfriend and I were watching the Cardinals game when all the blathering about potential trades was seemingly non-stop. She asked who I'd like to see the Cards pick up, to which I immediately replyed "Larry Walker". Her being a new baseball fan, she says "who's he"? I switched the Sat. receiver to FSN Rocky Mountain just in time to see LW hit a run scoring double in the gap in left center. I guess it was an omen.
If nothing else, it will help douse some of the chest thumping coming from the "Morons of the Midway" about Garcia(sub)para. Walker's comment during an interview last night said it all " I've never heard so many nice things said about a ballclub and a city as I have about St. Louis". Ever hear that said about anything in Chicago? Huh?
biggest plus to me is that we upgraded our outfield defense in such a big way.
As a Cubs fan I can find no immeasurable fault in this deal, as as Brian stated it states Walt is positioning this team to go far in the playoffs, and has added one of the best lefthanded bats in the game to the lineup with an eye toward October. I rate this one right up there with the Rolen acquisition as moves by the Cards that shut my mouth up nice and tight, and lead me to nod my head in acknowledgement that every once in a while, and sometimes when it counts most, your GM does the right thing.
Walker clearing waivers before this trade was consumated is the only consolation I had when I first heard about the move. That every other organization in the NL had an opportunity to review Larry and his contract/health/age situation and decided a "pass" was in their best interest is a teeny-weenie (or itsy-bitsie) point just big enough for me to hang my hat on. Given the financials would have been different for any team claiming him, and I suppose there is some slight difference between 17.5 million and 8 million dollars, it shouldn't surprise anyone that this trade went through. The surprising thing is that Walt deemed it necessary.
I say, good on ya for recognizing that it was absolutely necessary, and for getting the best available player who could help this team for the rest of this season. Even if he is a freakin' Hoosier All-Star... but then, so is Nomar.
AND INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, CUBSFAN, SOMEONE ON STLTODAY.COM HAS ALREADY DONE A RUNS CREATED ANALYSIS - LARRY, EVEN IF HE PLAYS IN ONLY 2/3 OF THE GAMES LEFT, CONTRIBUTES AS MANY RUNS AND "WINS" AS A FULLY HEALTHY NOMAR PLAYING EVERYDAY PROVIDES THE CUBBIES!!!
EVERY GAME ABOVE 40 LARRY PLAYS (AND EVERY GAME BELOW 60 NOMAR PLAYS) SERVES TO GIVE STL A RUN/WIN ADVANTAGE!!!
PRETTY GOOD ATTEMPT AT A "COUNTER" TO NOMAR...
I like this move if for no other reason we can put major league outfielders at all three positions everyday and not have to use infielders filling in a pinch. Go Cards.
Earlier this week on an earlier thread, we had a little comparison on everyday players for the Cubs and Cards. We decided everyday was 4-4 and they win starting pitchers while we win the bullpen. How does everyone see the splits now? Does Sanders/Walker matchup with Sosa/Alou? I am a 'homer' but I can't go quite that far. I will say that we are almost a wash. A lot closer than Mabry/Lankford/Sanders were.
Tony
I allowed my mind to wander when I was watching the Cards last week. What would it be like if they had this year's JD Drew in the mix with Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds? I knew it wasn't a reasonable thought because the 2004 Cards aren't 70-38 without Marquis and King, but I entertained the idea anyway.
Three days later, the Cards have an older, perhaps slightly less valuable, version of Drew in their lineup. Is this a great season or what?
It sure is. This season has already been more enjoyable than last, regardless of what happens in October. I love it.
I thought it might be intresting to list some of PECOTA's comparable players to Larry Walker at this point in his career. They include: Paul O'Neill, Ellis Burks, Darrell Evans, Dwight Evans, Fred McGriff, George Brett, Chili Davis.
Walker has always reminded me of Brett. They sorta look the same, built the same, have that same lefthanded "lean back" stance, both played due west of St. Louis, both did just about everything well, both have a healthy amount of hoozh in them. I'll take a latter-day George Brett on the Cards, sure.
I'm not concerned about his Aug/Sept numbers from '02 and '03. If the conventional wisdom is that production decreases in these months are the result of cumulative fatigue, Walker's light workload thusfar this year should make this largely inapplicable.
In addition, his 2001 Aug/Sept numbers were pretty absurd (assuming my extrapolation from ESPN's stats is correct). Those numbers: roughly, .390/.500/.680.
I've had my eye on him for about a month and a half, but figured since he's got another year left he wasn't really a possibility. Happily, that's been proven not to be the case.
Looks like a great deal, as long as no top prospects are lost (and I don't count Narvy or Gall as one). I'd have preferred a stud arm, but there don't seem to be any available. So, if you can't find a way to reduce your runs allowed, might as well increase you runs scored. What a lineup!
Honestly, I can't understand how anyone can complain about Walt anymore. To my eye, he's as good a GM as there is.
He's amazing. Not a great farm developer (which is strange, b/c that's the area he came from), but there may be no GM in the history of baseball who is better at in-season deals, Beane included. He just does things that other GMs don't have the wherewithal (i.e., the networking skills or the balls) to pull off.
We don't play CHI again unless BOTH make it to the NL championship. I don't see the Cubs making it there; so I don't care about Nomar til' next year.
Walker's higher potential impact IMO would be at Yankee Stadium with that short left porch.
BRIAN,
ANY IDEA OF HOW MUCH MONEY (POST WALKER) WE HAVE TO SPEND IN THE OFFSEASON, NOW???!!
Since when does anybody worry about pitchers going to the Rockies coming back to hurt them?
Honestly, if they did give up Naverson there will be no way of knowing if he actually is any good at the big league level until he somehow escapes Coors.
There is a potential "minus" of not having Naverson on future Cardbird teams but it will be impossible to calculate just what they gave up for years to come.
Finally - maybe Walker can also hang around and help out the Blues if there is an NHL season....
Jocketty's one of the best GM's ever when it comes to making trades. He's a little below-average when it comes to the farm system, though some of that is the scouting director's role (not that he isn't ultimately responsible for it). He's generally been between bad and awful when it comes to free agency, but I think his trading record outweighs that.
Cutting Lankford out of the picture?
Let's go to the EQAs!
.308 - Mabry
.289 - Cedeno
.271 - Lankford
.263 - Sanders
.240 - Taguchi
.229 - Anderson
So you send Taguchi back down until September, and spot Lankford in CF if Edmonds needs a day off.
And if Sanders is gonna start hitting like expected he doesn't have a lot of time left to do it.
Dan,
Putting Lankford in center is like putting a big sign out there that says "Hit it here and get a double!"
Plus, he's injured.
Lineup-wise, I prefer a full-throttle attack:
1. Renteria
2. Walker
3. Pujols
4. Rolen
5. Jedmonds
6. Sanders
7. Molina
8. Womack
I just wet myself.
That's my favorite lineup as well. Maybe switch Rolen and Jedmonds around to give opposing managers a headache trying to find optimal bullpen matchups with our lefty-righty-lefty-righty Murderer's Row.
Oh, and Dan, when I said cut Lankford out of the picture, I didn't mean cut him from the team. I just mean cut out any notion that he's a key cog for us.
And Tolaxor, I might do some more detailed budget work at or near the end of the season, but it's almost impossible to judge how much the Cards have to spend without being on the inside. All I could do was see how much money was freed up vs. our established spending levels, which I should get around to one of these days.
By the way, did anyone pick up the "Hello Larry" reference -- you know, the old sitcom with McLean Stevenson (and Meadowlark Lemon as himself). I need to know.
I got the "Hello Larry" reference, Brian. And I assume you know that that fine sitcom was a spinoff of "Diff'rent Strokes." (I believe the lovely Kim Richards played Larry's daughter on the show.)
Flynn, I'd rather have a backup CF who can hit doubles and gives up a few than a backup CF whose best chance for extra bases is if he hits one up the middle and the second baseman dies.
And I understand what you mean, Brian, I'm just saying there are a few cogs not hitting or fielding as well.
a) Tolaxor all caps hurt the eyes and make me read comments with a shouting voice 
b) I keep looking over our potential lineups and having hot flashes!
c) Brian and the usual commentators great analysis it really is a great(er than usual) time to be a Cards fan.
Everybody's got it covered, so I don't have much to add. Just 2 things:
1. LaRussa, somewhat surprisingly, already seemed to be limiting Sanders' playing time, which is a good thing considering his .293 OBP. Unfortunately, our replacement options weren't any better. Now, Sanders and Mabry can platoon in left, upgrading that spot, and Walker gives us awesome replacement value in right, as much on defense as on offense.
2. I called for Jocketty's resignation before the start of this season, so outside of that racist "anonymous" guy who visited here weeks ago, I'm the biggest moron ever to comment on this board...
Why does Anderson get a free pass, except for a few early season heroics he has been terrible. Can't Mabry play a little 3rd and Taguchi played a little 2nd in Japan with Luna being the primary backup at 2B, SS and 3rd.
To me it seems like an easy decision, dump Anderson when Lankford is healthy.
Or else dump Taguchi who I like but Lankford can play CF if need be but Anderson is the easy choice...
Brian, I would even get it if you referenced "The Montefuscos," that's how pathetically deep my knowledge of '70's sitcoms goes.
Matt, not to poke fun at the Mabry/Sanders platoon idea, but they both have reverse platoon splits this year, don't they? Would LaRussa be bold enough to actually play Mabry v. lefties, and Sanders v. normal people? If Sanders weren't already under contract for next year, I'm not sure I'd play him much at all anymore. (Gotta consider morale going forward at least a *little* bit, though.)
On the other hand, Reggie is one of those daggum streakhitters, so maybe he'll shock me and turn it on again real soon.
Like many others, I'd rather have The Big Randy, but hey, for 2nd-best this is a hell of a consolation prize. Kudos (as usual) to Jocketty & staff for getting it done!
Ironical that the new guy--Walker--gets a key WALK that helped seal the game today.
AS TO HOW MUCH (DAMN TOLAX LOCK!) money the Cards have to spend in the offseason, post Larry signing, let's remember that the Cards are not stuck paying $7 million of Tino Martinez's salary next year.
This is approximately equal to the amount the Birdnals have to pay the Hooz through 2005 (assuming that reports out of Rado are accurate that the Rox are paying us $9 mil to take him, that means we owe him, with his 2005 salary of $12.5 mil, a grand total of $7.7 mil).
As long as Larry doesn't start handing
fly balls to the fans when there are less than 2 outs, I think the money is well spent.
Questions still abound about the 2005 payroll.
Free Agents (2004 Salaries) in 2005
Marlon Anderson (600,000)
Cal Eldred (900,000)
Steve Kline (1,700,000)
Jason Marquis (525,000)
Mike Matheny (4,000,000)
Matt Morris (12,500,000)
Edgar Renteria (7,250,000)
So Taguchi (1,200,000)
I'm not sure who is arbitration eligible beyond Rick Ankiel (320,000)
- Taguchi might - AND I'm not sure how much money the Cards have to pay Roger Cedeno, BUT between King, Carpenter (assuming option is picked up), Tavarez, Walker, Sanders, Suppan, Williams (again, option), Isringhausen, Rolen, Edmonds and Pujols we're talking about $65 mil.
If the payroll remains in the same ballpark, that's $15-20 mil Walt has to lock up E-Rent and probably Marquis ... Morris is pretty much gone, unless he takes a HUGE paycut.
Where does that leave Dirty Hat and Catch-22?
The standing O for Walker today was amazing, even after the guy K's !! Someone mentioned that Walt J. had a bad track record with free agents- I completely disagree. Big Mac and Rolen were both free agents in the making, as well as Jedmonds, and they all opted to sign before testing the waters because of the same reception that #33 received today ! Arms are tough to find this time of year, so adding this one in right is outstanding !
I want them to try to keep Kline and Marquis, and put in a good try for Renteria, and let the rest walk. Maybe sign a cheap backup catcher for Molina.
A few thoughts:
Anderson will stick around because he's .357/.419/.607 as a pinch hitter. Last year he was .353/.389/.588. Whether or not pinch hitting is a special skill (as opposed to hitting in general) is another matter.
Sanders has been brutal, but he's just continuing his rediculous odd/even year pattern. His annual OPSs since 1994:
1994 .812
1995 .976
1996 .816
1997 .857
1998 .764
1999 .903
2000 .705
2001 .886
2002 .779
2003 .912
2004 .769
Good thing we signed him for two years.
As for a potential platoon, I suspect Sanders' splits this year are a fluke. He's been much better against lefties in recent years.
We have a much better defensive outfield with Walker in the mix... do we put Walker in RF and move Reggie to left? Has anyone noticed Mabry's numbers since the all-star break? He has been tearing it up...guess he will be taking a seat or maybe getting some of Reggie's playing time...
IMO Morris and Renteria will be gone next year... Morris is our highest ERA starter yet he will want big money... Renteria has established himself as one of the best SS's in baseball and will command very big $. Luna has been impressive in a reserve role, he is big.strong and young... he has very good power for a SS...I think he is our SS of the future.
Sean - Marquis is arbitration-eligible for two more years, so there should be no worries about keeping him, and he should remain relatively cheap.
Brian,
On developing farm talent.
Walt has done a lot better than people think in developing players from the "farm" (drafts and NDFAs). Actually, "par" is a lot lower than what people think.
During last season I looked at all of the players drafted or taken as NDFAs from 1995 onward that had made it to the majors. The Cards ranked at the top of the lists in both batting and pitching.
Look at teams like the Cubs. They have four home grown players of note:
Wood, drafted #4 overall in 1995
Patterson, drafted #3 overall
Prior, drafted #2 overall
Zambrano, NDFA
The team picked by many to be the best in the NL has four key home grown guys, and three of those were the top draft picks in the country.
And just remember the best player drafted in the last 10? years was a 13 round draft pick by the Cards.
On the offensive side, the Cards rate with the Twins as producing the most talent for the majors. On the pitching side, the Cards were about 5th.
The farm under Walt has been a lot better than people believe.
Dave
FYI, STLToday (Post-Dispatch) is reporting that Gall is the PTBNL. In a way, I'm very happy for him. He put up very good numbers @ Memphis & sat. I hope he gets his chance in COL (side note: watch his numbers balloon if he's sent over to COL. Springs).
Fascinating study, Dave. I'd love to see the stats if you still have them. And I'll have to re-assess my view of Jocketty, for sure.
Brian,
I will try to find them and send them to you (the original Excel file).
Dave
I've been reading a number of these posts, and many of you seem to be of the opinion that losing Renteria is not a big deal. Excuse me, but a player as young as he still is with his talent and potential--I can't see the possibility of not signing him, especially when the money will be abundant enough to sign him. Signing Renteria and Kline seem to me the two most important signings. Eldred and Anderson are easy to get rid of. Morris obviously as well, but I think that So is unvaluable to the club with his ability to platoon the OF while being able to bunt and hit with occasional power.
Commenting by HaloScan
