Replacement Level Yankees Weblog Comments
Excellent stuff. I think the question of which is greater is more like:
500PA(Swisher)+600PA(Nady)+2 picks
or
600PA(Nady)+500PA(Swisher)+1 pick.
The difference in who starts will probably be 1-2 runs over the season. If Nady gets enough counting stats to get an extra pick, I think that's worth it.
I reserve the right to complain if the Yankees lose a game by 1 run to the Sox in September, and then miss the playoffs by that game, when Swisher is on the bench.
Picks?
That is, isn't it 1 vs 0?
right, Mike hit on the important point that many are missing.
the debate isn't between 600 AB's for Nady and 0 for Swisher (or vice versa), it's whomever gets that extra 100 or so AB's.
and that difference is only going to be a handful of runs.
Goldman wrote on YES that starting Nady over Swisher was a "2 win" swing, and he is completely wrong.
i think he means Nady will bring 2 picks as a Type A and only 1 as a Type B.
Great point Mike K. It isn't Nady OR Swisher, it's a few more PA for one or the other.
Regarding the picks, if Nady leaves as a type A free agent offered arbitration, the Yankees get a first round pick (assuming it's not one of the worst 15 teams in the league) and a supplemental pick after the first round.
That's assuming Girardi finds Swisher 500 ABs. Note that putting Swisher 10% at 1b has a downside - don't recall about lf. (Mike, you might want to edit the 2nd line in your table...)
Also I take it you think Abreu was more Linda than Paul last year.
SG, Quick question: isn't one wOBA point worth 0.5 runs using linear weights for 650 PAs? Doesn't that make Swisher about 6 runs better over a full season when you take the average of projections?
Also, why is Nady's projected playing time so low in the projections? Are they projecting playing time based on linear weights of the past as well?
Goldman is coming unglued. He's been says the difference between Melky hitting 310 and hitting 285 is the difference between useful and harmful--so trade him in case it's .285 Melky. At the same time, he's heaping scorn on flipping Jeter and Damon in the order. The difference in runs between "good" and "bad" Melky is roughly the same as the difference in runs between one lineup and the other, certainly the same order of magnitude--so if you get rid of Melky because of those runs, don't you also applaud the lineup change for the same number of runs?
SG, Quick question: isn't one wOBA point worth 0.5 runs using linear weights for 650 PAs? Doesn't that make Swisher about 6 runs better over a full season when you take the average of projections?
Hmm, you're right. (.342 - .330)/1.15 * 650 PA = 6.8 runs. I'll look at my wOBA and batting run formulas and see why they are different. I may be using different weights for the two.
wOBA doesn't include stolen bases, but the difference between Nady and Swisher is less than half a run there.
Abreu was more like Heather Mills in the OF last year.
That's assuming Girardi finds Swisher 500 ABs. Note that putting Swisher 10% at 1b has a downside - don't recall about lf.
this is a good point. i think he'll find Swisher lots of playing time, but i doubt he'll get 10% of the time at 1B.
i think Teixeira is going to play almost every single game.
fgas, i don't get it, what was his problem with the Damon/Jeter change?
what is the downside?
this is a good point. i think he'll find Swisher lots of playing time, but i doubt he'll get 10% of the time at 1B.
Probably splitting hairs. 10% of the time at 1B is about 146 innings. I could see Swisher getting about 4 starts there (36 innings), and then taking over at first in certain cases. Blowouts, defensive replacement if Tex is pinch-run for, if Tex has a minor injury, etc. I could see him getting another 50-100 innings in that manner.
Mike, you might want to edit the 2nd line in your table
I had a table?
this is a good point. i think he'll find Swisher lots of playing time, but i doubt he'll get 10% of the time at 1B.
You could throw Tex at DH 5% of the time if you don't want to lose his bat but want to rest him some. Assuming a healthy Matsui for a full year is probably a reach.
here is Goldman on Nady/Swish:
What is not nonexistent, however, is the impact on the bottom line, wins and losses, created by the manager's decision to play one player over another. At his 2006-2007 best, Swisher's offense and defense combined to make him a six-win player. At Nady's normal rate of production--that is his whole career except for the first 89 games of 2008, he was a one-win player. This is anything but a minor difference.
this is a staggering use of data. ignore Swisher's worst season, ignore Nady's best season...profit!!
this is a staggering use of data. ignore Swisher's worst season, ignore Nady's best season...profit!!
Especially when those seasons are the most recent and should be given the most weight.
Aspirations to a table, then:
"500PA(Swisher)+600PA(Nady)+2 picks
600PA(Nady)+500PA(Swisher)+1 pick"
This says 2=1, given commutivity. If so, I can prove a lot of famous old theorems.
also, if Swisher and Nady revert to 2006-2007 form, Swisher will win the full-time job back by May.
is there any evidence that Joe Girardi is going to stick with a more "trusted" yet inferior player in face of mounting evidence that he should make a change?
i thought the big complaint last year was that he switched the lineup TOO much? now we should be afraid he can't work in Swisher?
yup, he dismissed the change in batting order thusly:
"Many studies have been done of this subject, and the results consistently show that the difference between the least-optimal lineup (leadoff with the pitcher or Jose Molina or someone like that) and the best is only a few wins. The difference between the optimal lineup and the second-most optimal lineup or the third-most optimal lineup is nonexistent."
and
"what value in terms of wins and losses do you want to assign to [the lineup change]?"
While the difference IS small, I think it's about half a win. Which is about the same as the difference between Melky 285 and Melky 310.
10% of the 1B playing time is only 16 games/80 PAs. Swisher won't get that many starts there if Teixeira is 100% healthy, but it's not the end of the world if Teixeira gets a day off or a day at DH here and there if he has a little owie.
Matsui will not play 150 games, even if he's exclusively a DH. All of the starting OFers will get days off, Nady against some righties, Gardner against some lefties, and Damon just to rest his legs. Swisher could start four times a week pretty easily even if there are no injuries to any of the other OFers. The things most likely to cut into Swisher's playing time are a) if Posada and/or Rodriguez need to DH a lot, and b) if Swisher sucks. Of course, if "a" happens, then the Yankees are screwed anyway.
This says 2=1, given commutivity. If so, I can prove a lot of famous old theorems.
took me about 3 reads to get it. well done.
This says 2=1, given commutivity
Ooh, math jokes.
Anyway, I think it's pretty clear he just mis-typed. More importantly, I doubt that 100 PA is going to make the difference between Nady being a type A and Nady being a type B. And who knows what else will factor into the decision on whether to offer arbitration by the time that decision has to be made?
Didn't we learn not to count our draft picks before they hatched this past winter?
i think Nady is pretty safe though.
he only makes $6.5M. totally different from Abreu b/c the worst case just isn't that bad.
also, he is a Boras client. he's not going to accept.
More importantly, I doubt that 100 PA is going to make the difference between Nady being a type A and Nady being a type B.
this is true.
Anyway, I think it's pretty clear he just mis-typed.
Yeah, I had to read it myself several times. It is worse because I know what I meant, so I kept reading it the way I wanted too! Good catch rilkefan.
More importantly, I doubt that 100 PA is going to make the difference between Nady being a type A and Nady being a type B.
That's a whole different topic of conversation I guess, w/o knowing how close he is to the cutoff, what everyone else in his grouping will do, etc. W/o checking, I'd guess he's in the lower-half of his group, so the more stats he accumulates can only help.
Anyway, I think this is going to be a non-issue. Though SEVERAL sites and a Neyer chat yesterday indicate people want it to be one. Nady and Swisher will both get plenty of playing time, and I think the one that's playing better will get more.
I can't come to bed, honey - somebody on the internet mistyped something!
"the one that's playing better"
Probably should be, "the one with better back-of-the-playing-card stats in a small sample", but we'll see.
Do posts here count in the standings?
yeah, but i think OBP is considered a back of the playing card number these days.
pretty sure Girardi "gets it" in that respect.
Clearly, yankeemonkey is "Anonymous" and is worried about someone catching up to her.
Scroll down and you get:
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Lohud.com: Abraham - Girardi likes what he sees in Traber
[shudder]
Ha, look at IPK's projections. Man was he terrible last year.
FIPs-wise he wasn't so bad - 5.45. Yeah, it was sub-20% by Cairo - but in
html FAIL.
... in fewer than 40 IP. Chone, Marcel, Zips have him at 4.3-4.4 FIPS this year.
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