Replacement Level Yankees Weblog Comments
Here's what bothers me about the relief-to-starting plan (which I agree is still probably the wisest course).
Every pitching coach interviewed this off-season has taken pains to point out that all innings aren't equal, and that some innings wear on a pitcher more than others. After all, we joke about how Torre burned out Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino, and their IP's were under 90.
No doubt the Joba rules will apply, and JC (the savior) won't go back to back days, etc. He still is going to pitch the eighth inning of one or two run games at max effort, and that's going to take a lot more out of him than the IP count will indicate.
After all, we joke about how Torre burned out Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino, and their IP's were under 90.
Frequency of use is more damaging than IP IMO. We also have to think about how frequently a pitcher is warmed up even if he doesn't end up coming into the game.
You do raise a good point though Ed. There's a reason that a lot of relievers seem to flame out early and I think it's because relieving can be more taxing on a per inning basis. Hopefully the Yankees have ways to monitor Joba's workload to mitigate that somewhat.
I like the old style comments section.
I also think Hughes will outperform Joba this year, but both will be sub 4 era.
If that's all true, that would seem to make 80 IP as a reliever roughly equivalent to 200 as a starter, making this approach to lessening stress on JC's arm useless.
Last spring, the Red Sox reportedly received several medical opinions to the effect that Papelbon's shoulder could handle starting, but not relieving. Since fortune dictated he stay in the pen, they've gone with a program of extensive and immediate evaluation of his shoulder strength after every appearance. That seems to have worked out well so far.
i don't know if i believe the spin coming from the Sox last spring.
it is my opinion that is went down like this: the Sox, like many of us here, realize that an excellent starter is more valuable than an excellent reliever.
they also know that moving Papelbon out of a role he excelled in would be a tough sell with the fanbase.
so, they came up with this "medical" reasoning for why Papelbon should be a starter.
THEN, in spring training, when Papelbon was starting, around he consistently began losing velocity around his 3rd inning of work.
the Sox then realized that he probably wasn't going to last as a starter, so they moved him back to the closer role. Papelbon then put out a statment about him closing was his lifelong dream (though he had just said that starting was his lifelong dream a few months earlier) and that was that.
DiceK is a fatass! Scroll down and check out his picture:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news...gns%3Cbr%20/%
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i noticed that too
Dudes, he's wearing ass-pads in his shorts.
Abraham just announced that Chamberlain will start in the bullpen. http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/...to-the-bullpen/
I don't like this. Hasn't Girardi been reading this blog? Common sense sucks. Common sense is always saying stuff like, "I want to win this game today."
Sorry, here's the missing quote, and the thing I don't like:
There will be no Joba Rules. Chamberlain can be used for multiple innings and on consecutive days. “It will be common sense,” Girardi said.
I've been reading this blog for about 9 months now, and subscribe to the RSS, and this is the first time posting.
I have to agree, I agree wholeheartedly with the consensus of this blog that he begin the season as a reliever, but the thought of there not being any rules to his use just seems to put a bit of a scare into me. The reference tends to be Chad Billingsley, and I'm am not sure what they did with him, but whatever it was, it seemed to have a sustainable effect on his effectiveness.
I don't see the Girardi quote as anything to get worked up about. We've talked a lot about a Johan Santana 2003 usage pattern being ideal for Chamberlain. Well, go check his game logs from that season. He pitched multiple innings; he pitched on consecutive days; he even pitched multiple innings on consecutive days once; he was used as a spot starter, too; he turned out all right.
Why not wait to see if there's actually something wrong with Girardi's common sense before we freak?
the thought of there not being any rules to his use just seems to put a bit of a scare into me...
I have a feeling this really means that there will be guidelines, but nothing hard and fast like the "Joba Rules" that the media needs to know about. Or maybe something close to the Joba Rules will be in effect, but they don't want the media/opponents to know what they are.
I think it's interesting that people are concerned about Joba's usage when the Yankees are doing exactly the right thing. There are three options:
1. Make Joba a starter from day one. This makes no sense as he'd reach his innings limit too soon and need to be shut down early.
2. Make Joba a permanent member of the bullpen. This makes no sense because he's more valuable pitching 200 innings (eventually) as a starter than 80 as a reliever.
And then there's option 3. The most complicated, but best option, which is to start Joba in the bullpen and shift him into the rotation mid season. As has been done successfully with Johan Santana and Chad Billingsley, allowing 150 innings to be spread over a full season's worth of games.
So why would the Yankees choose option 3, the smart option, that takes into consideration smart concerns like innings limits and the greater relative value of starters over relievers, and then do something stupid like overuse Joba during his time in the bullpen?
Or maybe something close to the Joba Rules will be in effect, but they don't want the media/opponents to know what they are.
You know, I can remember hearing discussion about not wanting the rules divulged last year, and I hope that this is the way they're going. Not that I would assume that you would prepare for a specific pitcher, especially one whom innings against would most likely be so minimal, but still.
I'm not opposed to what we will call option 3, but without the "rules" I would tend to worry that the option to use Joba would excede the common sense in conditioning him to eventually become a starter.
To be honest, I was sort of hoping for the 5 man rotation made up of 6 guys:
Wang
Pettitte
Mussina
Kennedy
The Hughes/Chamberlain two headed monster
4 innings a piece, alternate who gets the "start." 35 times through with some skipped days for the off day, and you're not right in that 150-160 inning area, with room for the playoffs. Assuming Hughes and Joba can get through 4-5 on their own each time (not a tall order), you're also essentialy giving the rest of the bullpen the day off.
Of course, this could mess up Hughes as he tries to become a guy who goes 7-8 innings each time out, but if he does that, he's going to run into innings issues as well.
j, I wanted the same thing, but I never thought they'd do it.
J- To quote the "Talking Heads" I say to you, STOP MAKING SENSE.
Mr. the Hutt will be penning til someone goes down, then starting, I hope. I'll bet on it.
The problem with a "two-headed monster" setup is that it goes against all the managerial conventional wisdom. That is, if Hughes leaves after 5 innings with a 2-1 lead and Joba enters the game and maintains the lead into the 9th, there is no way Girardi doesn't bring in Mariano Rivera. Even if it's the 8th inning and an effective set up man emerges, Girardi is going to want to let that guy take the inning instead of Joba - especially if he lets the lead off hitter reach base. In that sense, Joba (or Hughes) would really only throw two innings if their turn came second.
That's a good point about Santana, MC, but nothing's written in stone—this is essentially about actuarial risk. Same organization, a few years later, look at one Francisco Liriano, super talent, age 22, 16 GS, 28 G, 121 IP, and total breakdown.
One thing that's encouraging is that Chamberlain, like Billingsley and unlike Liriano, has a large build. David Gassko did a study on body type for THT in 06, and concluded there is some reason to believe that heftier pitchers last longer.
Same organization, a few years later, look at one Francisco Liriano, super talent, age 22, 16 GS, 28 G, 121 IP, and total breakdown.
Of course, they didn't limit Liriano the way they'd done with Santana. Liriano had thrown 115 of those innings by the end of July (when he started breaking down). If he'd stayed in the rotation the rest of the year, he'd have thrown 175-185 innings. But the real problem with that kid probably came a few years earlier, when he pitched 157 minor league innings as a 20 year old after an injury-plagued 19 year old season when he only threw 9.
another detail that has been a little overlooked is that Joba has been kindof crappy in ST so far.
now, i don't put a ton of stock into ST results (i'm not really that concerned with Hughes or Wang) but he has "forced" himself into the rotation either.
if he never pitched those 24 relief innings last season, what would the Yankees be doing with him now? probably (and i know there are 2 weeks left in ST) sending him down to AAA to start games.
"hasn't" forced...
sending him down to AAA to start games.
Or even AA. The main reason he was even promoted to AAA IIRC was the Yankees were thinking of bringing him up to help in the bullpen. How's that for karma? If Kyle Farnsworth had been effective last year, Chamberlain would probably be starting for Scranton or maybe even Trenton this year.
apologies for being off topic, but is there going to be that fantasy league that consists of a bunch of people who comment on this site? I haven't heard anything about it, and it's usually a lot of fun.
The Yankees would be seeing a guy with a high-90s FB and a nasty slider regardless. Has he been working a lot on his other pitches (I think three now)? That would reduce his pitch quality as well as unpredictability.
Supposedly, Joba has a plus curve - which certainly looked good the two or three times he used it coming out of the pen last season. His least effective pitch is the change-up, which is allegedly serviceable - although I doubt he'll use it as a reliever. In any case, the reason Joba is being slated to start is because he has four (or perhaps 3.5) major league ready pitches.
Sorry to go off topic, but wanted to offer up any help you guys may need with your server issues. I'm sure you already have some guy or gal on it, but if you don't feel free to e-mail me.
As for Joba, I am very excited. As lazy as Torre was managing, I was just as lazy as a fan, not really worrying about the Yankees until the playoffs for the last 5 seasons. Joba's surge got me thinking about the regular season again, and I'm ready to go from the opening pitch to the last out.
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