Nothing but Paspalum Fasciculatum here
The attacks on Sumate by all MVR leaders and the their head honcho is the clear demonstration that Chavez considers the world Democracy as "facism, nazism, coup-monger, blah, blah, blah". As stated on your recent Democracy post, anything that clearly states the supreme right that all citizens (pro-government, opposition and neutrals) have on electing someone to a government post, and thus a fundamental demostration of what True Democracy is, becomes a pain in the neck for individuals with delusion of power. It will be good to ask Lina Ron what she would think of the CNE after she appears without ANY votes at all (not even her own) on the next elections.
Edgar, Most assuredly you'll be using the "permalink" feature referring readers back to this post a lot in the upcoming months.
Sumate is obviously in the cross-hairs of Chavismo and will remain so until their services are no longer required (as in post-Chavismo).
Great blog btw, I've been 'lurking' since day one.
That's the purpose Mike, if you noticed I have been adding links to these 'illustrative posts' on my side bar. To make them easy to link to.
My purpose from day one was to have quick links to disarm any misconstrued PSF argument that I have encountered. It saves a lot of time.
And BTW: I see Súmate as a clean substitute for the CNE, too bad they don't see themselves that way.
Thanks...
Very good piece Edgar.
I agree with you Edgar, in a post-chavismo Venezuela, the wise thing to do should be to "transplant" everyone in Súmate to the CNE.
Transplant?
I am not talking about post-Chavismo, I am talking about now!!!.
After Chavez I would just suggest an infrastructure exchange. Súmate takes CNE's offices, and CNE members go to jail.
(and thanks Alek)
What's been most puzzling about the whole Chavez scenario is the utter silence of the Venezuelan legislature. For example, during the 02 coup, the legislature seemed virtually powerless to do anything to restore Constitutional order. The American system lays out a clear chain of command, should the President be incapacitated in any way. Not so it seems for Venezeula. Therefore a coup does not incapacitate our government.
Ditto for Chavez complete takeover of oil, banking, and now he's got his greedy hands on the country's mines -- utter silence from the legislature. Maybe you can explain this. Does the legislature have any power at all to do anything but vote yes or no on what Chavez wants or do they actually do the legislating and make the laws?
Legislature is just yes-men for Chavez at this point. After the constitutional change a large majority of it was in Chávez party, now quite a few have 'defected,' so they now have a slight majority. But that has not stopped them from approving laws that, by constitution, required a 2/3 majority (i.e. packing of the supreme court).
So forget about separation of powers, legislature, elections, and courts are in Chavez's pockets. During the 'coup' my best guess is that they went into hiding fearing that it would be retribution time.
Now we will have elections in a couple of months to replace _all_ of the legislature (yes a silly system). We are bracing for a massive fraud that could give him that 2/3 allowing Chavez to change the constitution again.
Venezuela surely could use a sleeper organization along the lines of "OTPOR" (google it) to make its presence known after the results of the December elections are tallied up. Not to mention a heavy international observer presence of "non-partisans" such as the "Canada Corps", which is a subsidiary of CIDA (Canadian International Development Agency). Hopefully such preparations are in the works, there's only 3 months to go.
Thanks Mike, I have been wanting to write about what can be done, and you have just given me a very good starting point.
Súmate was partially that in a some way. We have a lot of 'neighbor associations' that kind of fill that role, but are not as visible as activists.
The problem is that the RR debacle has made most Venezuelans very apathetic to it all. It better start changing soon.
Okay, Edgar, so what is your prediction for the next election? It sounds like you believe Chavez will manipulate his way to victory here, but is it certain that all his party candiadates will vote his way. After all, he's starting to slip in the approval polls. A 20 pt drop is huge in politics.
Brook 20%?, you obviously know something that I don't.
I have never believed the numbers that are out there to me there is really a 30% or so of core Chavistas. Which I believe is now reduced as, after some of his electoral maneuvering, some of the staunchest sectors have been seen shouting: "we put you there, we can take you down!." But it's hard for me to assess everything that is happening in Venezuela from afar (and with my limited time).
If there was a way to guarantee a clean election, and the opposition gets it's message (any message) through, I would predict at least a 60% against Chávez. But given the level of abstention from those that do not believe such clean election possible (like me), it's hard to see what the real outcome would be.
And then, if you take into account the 'CNE wild-card' (more like a joker, really). Then a 70% Chavez 'victory' is assured, he is smart enough to avoid that dreaded 100%.
I got those figures from a recent article citing Chavez slipping below 50% in approval.
This is the danger I see in Venezuela. Chavez has created extremely high expectations -- far beyond what he can deliver. With the abscence of a viable alternative, I'm afraid that people will simply lose all faith in democracy altogether, if he continues to fail. After all, Chavez has at least addressed the issues facing the poor there. In a country with 60% below the poverty line, no candidate can ignore the very real and serious problems they face.
So, in a strange way, I don't want him to fail completely, but I'm not betting a single one of my hard-earned dollars on him. My prediction is that the country is headed for even tougher times than they've faced in the past, and anarchy may overcome.
Chavez seems to be loosing some grip, a couple of the groups that follow him seem to be starting to get angry at him. One of the ways out I see is Chavistas realizing who Chavez really is. Remember, they have the guns. A couple of this week's events point in that direction.
-One of the most respected reporters from the Chavista media, actually one that has always bothered me because I admired him greatly before Chavez: Walter Matinez, has gotten suspended for talking 'against the revolution.' Chavez has shown his stripes by asking, on the air, other reporters not to talk about it, and other Chavez-media reporters have been suspended for siding with Walter. There have already been protests in front of the TV channel.
-Lina Ron, one of the most vociferous and violent pro-Chavez assembly-women, and who was left-out of the MVR assembly ranks. Was directing a march against Chavez shouting: 'We put him there, we can take him down.'
- Chavez has made declarations that directly affect property rights in terms that the lower-classes will clearly understand in their pockets.
So who knows, it might be hope talking, but times seem to be a-changing.
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