Sherman - you raise a good point about the potential impact of out-migration on Swanson's rates. However, I'm not sure that the Detroit data you cite actually shows this. First of all, the PK-12 enrollment is not really relevant (it would be better to look at cumulative enrollment in grades 9-12), and the change from 2002-03 to 2003-04, while interesting, has no bearing on Swanson's 2003 rate, which uses data for 2001-02 and 2002-03. The 9-12 enrollment for Detroit actually increased a bit from 2001-02 to 2002-03 (total from CCD for 2001-02 = 35,188, 2002-03 = 41,995). Further, it appears from quick glance of the differences in grade-step enrollment from one year to the next (e.g., from grade 9 in one year to grade 10 in the next year, etc.) that the declines are pretty consistent across multiple years (you can see this in SchoolMatters, which uses CCD, at the following link, www.schoolmatters.com/app/data/q/stid=23/llid=116/ stllid=207/locid=981907/catid=812/secid=3323/ compid=771/site=pes

or through building a table from CCD). This is not to say that transfers do not play a role in Detroit's data, but the data you cite do not explain why Swanson's rate is so low. Am I missing something?
Paul Gazzerro | 06.21.06 - 7:21 pm | #

Paul,

Please go look at the EW report again (p. 9 of the press release)—it uses data from the 2002-03 CCD (for Fall 2002 enrollment data) and the 2003-04 CCD (for Fall 2003 enrollment data and Diploma recipients, spring 2003). It's only with those figures that you can get a 22% CPI for the Detroit city schools.

Then go see what happens if you use the prior two years of data instead (2001-02 and 2002-03), which is what you thought Swanson used. What's the grad rate for Detroit then?
Sherman Dorn | Homepage | 06.21.06 - 9:25 pm | #