She will now act as if West Virginia is America itself and that she has turned the race around in her favor -- which of course she hasn't.
it means we could be ending up with a candidate who is less competitive in swing states than people might think, while the big state/swing state winner can't make this delegate math work.
it means that enough democrats like them both to keep it going, it means that the frontrunner and likely winner still has a huge gap to close with certain constituencies, which will end up being important in the general election.
but i guess it depends on who you are rooting for. i'm sure some would say, it means nothing and its too late anyway.
everyone will spin it to their advantage, obviously.
someone said this the other day, i can't for the life of me remember who it was, but it was something like "if i told you a year ago the democratic nominee would not have won CA, NY, NJ,OH, PA, etc etc, you would have told me you're crazy"
who knows how it will all pan out in november.
in any case, i think everyone should calm down and let it all continue. doesn't it just sharpen dems and perhaps just keep democratic momentum going right into the fall? think about it. we got kerry early on in the game, and so many people who only pay minimal attention then go vote might have just not bothered to stay involved. so one argument for this is that it keeps democratic voters involved longer, helping turnout in the end.
who knows.
so obama supporters may say what they will about west virginia and its people, but regardless of all that - it could end up being an important state in the fall.
have you been checking out
http://www.electoral-vote.com ?
maybe too soon to say this can't shift, but will it shift enough if we have obama as the nominee? its a little alarming the way it looks now... more than a little.
Oh for the love of gawd who gives a shit anymore?
What ever will we talk about in three weeks when this pseudo drama is finally over? Maybe John Aravosis will get back to masturbating and learn how to smile again once Clinton goes away.
I am very grateful for QVC where they don't talk about anything and they never shut up. Come to think of it...QVC has alot in common with Fox and CNN and all the others...
I still don't understand why Obama is the presumptive candidate after winning North Carolina where he had been favored all year, and losing in his neighboring Indiana where he is a known entity. These two states really weren't surprises, just as West Virginia really is no surprise. The same people are backing both candidates and the race is still close. Why are we supposedly going to end up, and I mean really by what seems default, with a candidate who can't win the big states and the swing states? It seems to me that having Obama as the candidate in the fall will make it MUCH harder to win the White House than having Clinton as the candidate. Why not fix this and nominate the candidate that can win in the fall? I still believe that Hillary is that candidate. And I am not sure that some of the superdelegates that already flipped may not flip back when they realize it too. It ain't over till it's over.
Hillary who? Obama has won states that are not traditionally democratic. Colorado, New Mexico, the deep south. What he has to do now is work to broaden his base against McCain in Pennsylvannia, Florida and Michigan. West Virginia rednecks are not a factor as they will go for McCain anyway.
Everyone is right so far. The peculiar ssible, a replacthing is at this point that Ms. Clinton would still engage in devisive politics. It seems that she must have something else in mind, like being a write in candidate or something like that.
She strangely sent me letters this week for contributions, and I'm not even a supporter. She has to be despirate for some reason.
Consider briefly that the much touted similarity between she and Obama is not,in fact the real assessment. I think that her despiration goes with her not being that close to Obama, but to McCain. We should find it highly suspect that she would be a hawk, almost the defining characteristic of the ultra-cons. Her health care agenda is really a very small issue in the whole scope of things, and hardly makes her a raving liberal. Indeed she has voted with Bush right along the way.( Bill was secretly in colusions with the republicans e.g. NAFTA and regarded Sukarno(Indonesian war criminal) as "one of our guys"and commited unspeakabkle brutalities to Iraqis.) One of Ms. Clintons strongest supporters was Murdoch(FOX).
Obama has been the disident, most liberal voice in our Senate while in office, and prior to that. He represents a true liberal alternative (as liberals go here in the U.S.).
It is , as mjc suggested, no supprise that very conservative population of W.Virginia would vote for her.It would not suprise me if she would hope to be an alternative to McCain.
That is just speculation, but something seems to be going on which is under the surface.
Sorry, don't seem to be seeing straight this am. Anyway it's just speculation. Too early in the day.
patrick, i think the people on QVC know about as much about politics as the people at CNN, MSNBC, and FOX. i wouldn't be suprised to see some QVC staff end up as anchors and "experts" someday.
mark said: Obama has been the disident, most liberal voice in our Senate while in office, and prior to that. He represents a true liberal alternative (as liberals go here in the U.S.).
thats what worries me about a general election.
that said, i know i like that about him, since i agree with him on issues and would love to have the senator labeled "most liberal" as president.
but. it worries me a lot when it comes to chances of winning in november.
Don't count Obama's chickens before they are hatched. Hillary should carry this into the convention, then give her delegates to Al Gore.
Hillary Clinton explains why her campaign is still viable.
mjc:
your suspicions are well founded re; electability. especially given the uncertainty of thedeligate process and then the corruption of the media (which we've discussed).
There was an article in the Atlantic(occionally helpful) this week about the ways in which different presidents have won by virtue of special connection to aspects of communication, and how Obama has literally done miracles by harnessing lots of ordinary people on the internet. They pointed out how all of the money he has come by has not been through the traditional "big Business" sources so much as from lots of people connected on the internet. He has had a remarkable number of small doners.
I've read, but discovered that a whole contingency of young people(20's 30's)
are really behind him because of their
unique connection in the Web.
I live in an overall young neighborhood and everyone is really dedicated to Obama and scared to death of the Neocons. That's encouraging, because I'm not used to people that young being impassioned about politics. He and different Senators etc are always e-maiing. & people talk on the streets. We can only
hope. The fact is that he's gottenthis far pretty cleverly and very transparently(which people want).Of course some people watch FOX etc. If I was a little more adventursome at the moment I'd blow up the TV lines and give everyone computers.
Hillary can't win, but she can do serious damage to the Democratic nominee in the meantime, swinging the election to McCain.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
rj...se_b_101623.htm
i don't really buy the damaging the party argument at this point. and i also have a hard time buying anything on huffington post, since its all opinion drenched in bias.
if obama can't beat mccain, its his fault. and this country's fault for continuing to vote for the wrong reasons. think of the nation's attention span. the primary will be old news a week after we have a nominee. then a week later it will feel like it happened years ago.
mccain is the weakest candidate the GOP has had in a while - if obama can't beat him, i think its unfair to blame the primary process which the DNC wrote up to play out just as it has, in their infinate wisdom (sarcasm).
mark's points bring some light to the situation for me, re: the new people he's brought into play, the smart use of the internet, etc.
not to mention the gop losing districts in other elections, and the 80-something % that think we're headed in the wrong direction.
but i have to allow myself to be cautiously, very cautiously, optomistic on november (or else will actually have to feel dissapointed, i'll guard myself with cynical sobering thoughts!). i guess we'll have to wait and see. it really should be easy for any democrat. but after the last two presidential elections, all i can think is that those who forget history may be doomed to repeat it... yet again!
also, all of the stuff that came out about obama meant to sink him is done with, old news, if they bring it up in the general election, will it really have that big of an impact? will people even care anymore? he's managed to stay ahead with all of those silly issues thrown in our faces time and time again. if he can't beat mccain based on bullshit like that, we have overestimated our country in thinking he ever had a shot. if he can beat a clinton, he should be able to beat mccain! seriously, who's a tougher oponent?? not mccain.
http://img.photobucket.com/
album...bush_change.jpg
Obama is just like Bush.
The Repblicans just suffered a third defeat in a special Congressional race in Mississippi,
in a district which is usually heavily consevative. Senior republicans are all bent out of shape and telling candidates to distance them selves from Bush as much as possible.. I wonder how much they can.
It will be hard for McCain to step back from all of this.mess.
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