There are six houses for sale on my street and at least that many, probably more for sale in my neighborhood. They're listed for $10-20K less than they would have been a year ago and they're still just sitting. One's been on the market for over six months. And I live in a popular neighborhood! The crisis has hit here. The city's growth hasn't been what we were promised (where are all those Nissan people??) and things are going to start to get really bad for a lot more people. Not just real estate agents and mortgage brokers.
2006 was an anomaly. Those numbers will not be reached for several years, if ever, even if the city continues to grow. Continuing to compare sales data to that year will always produce lower numbers.
Other markets, nationally, tanked in 2005 and 2006. Nashville did not. As a matter of fact, the city experienced record sales. Therefore, it bucked the national trend.
Only after the sub prime debacle did the Nashville market contract. As prices have not dropped and the market was very hot only a year and a half ago, I am curious as to how someone could be in severe financial trouble as a result of real estate investment in Nashville. It seems the stock market has been more volatile. Thanks for including the quote " Sales in Nashville are down a whopping 28.8%." They are, but they will not be in September or the months that follow.
Lesley:
I live in Green HIlls and have seen the SAME thing. And, they are still building. Idiots! Flood the market with new inventory, way to go. We'll all see our property values plummet.
Today I drove down Bowling Ave. and saw house after house with "For Sale" signs and "New Price" ...
Prices are dropping in East Nashville, too. And houses are taking a lot longer to sell.
I think expectations that real estate values will have a large increase every year would be unreasonable. The last 6 months has been slower than normal, and it may not pick up for several more months. The fact is that a record year is usually followed by a slower year. Jobs are still coming into the city. Property taxes are low compared to most states, we have no income tax, and a fair climate. Unfortunately a lot of people moving here are having trouble selling their homes in other states.
I am a realtor, and I would love to see another record year. I just don't expect this year to be it.
In March 2007 the average home in California sold for $500,000. In March of 2008 the average sale price fell to $380,000.
So millions of Californians who charged up to 125% of their equity could now owe as much as $300,000 over the retail value of their homes.
Several of my students are having a difficult time finding part time work because so many older folk are working second jobs which means employers can be selective about hiring less reliable kids.
No matter who we elect, tight times are upon us. Interesting times...
I think expectations that real estate values will have a large increase every year would be unreasonable.
Yes, well the figures show we are in our second year of a decline. What's happening in the market here is a little more severe than the "market correction" we keep hearing about. When your home is worth less than the mortgage you took out on it 4 years ago, that's a problem.
I think the basic concern of my post is: you can't rely on local newspapers for real information any longer.
SoBe: You should drive down Hillwood. There's a new construction house that's been sitting empty and for sale for as long as I can remember. I'm thinking at least two years. And another house that sold and is for sale again within two years. I wonder if the new owners of that house got caught up in an ARM crunch since the prices over there are $500K or more. The problem is not just the subprime loans. Here in Nashville, a lot of people took out "exotic" mortgages (interest only, 80/20, etc) just to be able to afford a house in the city. With the rise in rates, people are getting hurt because they can't refinance and get the equity from rising home values that they thought they could. That's not making it into the newspapers here, I'm guessing. I have to guess since I don't read them. 
I know I'm not a real estate agent, but sales are way down but prices are up? Um, think one may have something to with the other? I geuss they figure all the riff-raff has been foreclosed on, now the "real" buyers will pop up. We are like #4 in the nation for foreclosures, people are scared. Most everyone is hanging on to what they've got and riding it out, afraid to buy because they can't be sure theirs will sell.
Richard Courtney IS a nice person, and a fellow writing enthusiast no less. I enjoy his columns because they've got information and personality. And I for one am glad that there is at least one voice to counter the gloom and doom. Like sports, so much of pricing houses and the health of the economy in general is psychological. If you keep saying the sky is falling, pretty soon enough people are going to believe you that there is a domino effecct and sales do get really slow and prices do come way on down. What if your Predators went into each game saying, "We can't win. This city hates us. Attendance is down. Hockey doesn't belong the South." Go Preds, and go Richard!
John, I never thought you'd endorse propaganda but I"m not surprised.
Unfortunately there ISN'T a voice countering what Richard says, and that's what we desperately need --he's the sole source of information about the local real estate market and he's been consistently WRONG. He's like the Bill Kristol of local real estate.
I don't want spin, I want facts. I want information, not fairy tales. Every local news organizations goes to Richard Courtney for interviews! The information people are getting is completely skewed and people are making bad decisions based on the bad information they are receiving from the local news media.
We just bought our first house in Nashville. A year and a half ago we looked into it and we could only afford a condo so we waited and were able to find several houses in the same price range. Our realtor has been in the business for decades and says that it is the worst that she has seen.
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