Amen. Please God every one of your predictions comes true.

Even before the war, I was pretty much convinced Iraq was going to split at some point, definitely along Arab and Kurdish lines, and possibly further along Sunni and Shi'ites.

I'm not so sure this still wont happen, but I do think it will be bloodless and rather amicable if it does, however, Bush will be gone by that time as a full term of Iraqi government will have to pass and I don't see it being less than 4 years.

The next date to look for is the completion of the draft constitution, this will be the ultimate make or break and hopefully will shut the doubters up for good. My predicted split might come at this time.

I'm extremely skeptical of your "3 genuine democracies", certainly some may move towards a kind of constitutional monarchy (Jordon or the small gulf states), perhaps one for certain is Palestine, would you also predict a stable and independent Palestine by Bush's stand down ?

The Middle East is quite a large area, so you might be right.

Important note: not subscribing to the Bushilter analogies, so I don't think he'll be changing the US constitution to give himself life presidency.

Well, I'd say that a constitutional monarchy can be a genuine democracy. Depends on how it's set up. What I meant by "genuine democracy" was one in which the people really can vote for whomever they want, anyone can be a candidate, and the elected representatives really do run things. If I have to nail my prediction down a bit more accurately, I'll say Palestine, Syria, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, and Iran are all possibilities, and will probably all be democratic within a decade. Which will go first is far trickier to predict. (And, to be fair, Bahrain was well on the path to democracy anyway, so I'm not sure it'll count as one of Bush's achievements. Bahrain was actually why I upped my prediction from two to three before posting: three more democracies, two of them thanks to Bush.)

I severely doubt that Palestine will be stable, but it will (and may well already) be democratic, the PA will take genuine measures to stop terrorism, and, if they're not independent within four years, they will at least have independence within reach.

I'm hardly an expert, mind. These predictions are based on very little.

"Within five years, Iraq will be one of the world's most important economies. And not just because of the oil."

I think this one is really quite a stretch. Iraq is not a large country by world standards (25 million people) and its economy was smaller than Nepal's in 2003. Even if every Iraqi got as rich as every Malaysian (in GDP PPP percap terms), that still puts Iraq roughly between Greece and Sweden in terms of GDP. (Note: this means an increase in GDP percap of 500% in five years.) And pleasant though Greece and Sweden are, neither counts as 'one of the world's most important economies.'

It's conceivable that Iraq could be one of the Middle East's most important economies in five years. But this is a much more modest ambition.
Its oil holdings could also make it extremely important in terms of OPEC politics, oil prices and so on - but that was true before 1990!

I think you're confusing size with importance. I didn't say Iraq would be one of the world's largest economies, or that Iraqis would be some of the world's wealthiest people.

Feel free to come back in five years and say "I told you so."