Comments for Battle of Ontario....
By the way Gustavsson 9.18 & 2.60.
Officially a calder candidate?
LeClaire not even in the top 30 in Save %.
Wha happen?
I love it. 2% separates Calder candidate and national saviour on one hand, and unmitigated failure on the other.
I think the message and threat is truculence is there now... other players are playing with a little bit more chippyness and edge (i.e. Blake, Grabbo), and this is because they feel safer.
The truth is, early in the season the team really wanted to beat up Toskala for all the bad goals they gave up but took out their frustration on the other team instead. Now that Gustavsson isn't giving up bad goals, there is no frustration to vent on anyone.
Of course, Brian Burke might say that the first couple weeks of the season they fought anyone and everyone and now all of their opponents are intimidated by the Leafs toughness and won't challenge them physically anymore so there is no need to fight.
While I am sure the leafs are playing better and it appears that gus has give leaf fans hope (even though much of the stuff being said here about gus was also said about toskala when he first arrived), much of the current leafs point streak can be attributed to,
- Having of 7+ PPs in half of those games.
- kaberle having a career year over compacted into a couple weeks.
- Only two of the seven teams in the leafs streak (DAL and BUF) are currently in a playoff spot and the next two opponents are not in playoff spots either.
Since none of this going to continue to happen on a regular basis, the leafs might want to figure out a way to score 5 on 5.
Of course, the Leafs did beat Detroit who almost certainly will be in the playoffs come the end of the season and were on a 3 games winning streak having given up just 2 goals in those three games which included games against two of the top offensive teams in the NHL (Calgary and San Jose), and the Leafs managed to score 5 goals on them.
Oh, and you forgot Tampa who currently is in a playoff spot so in the 7 games the Leafs played 3 playoff teams and a team not currently in the playoffs but an elite team that had just started to turn its game around. Considering about half of teams make the playoffs and half don't, I don't foresee the remainder of the schedule really being that much more difficult than the past 7 games.
Oh, and 6 of the 8 goals they scored in the past 2 games were even strength so maybe they have figured out how to score 5 on 5.
Otherwise, you make a good points.
Keep it in your pants, Muppet. Weren't you just the one preaching about small sample sizes.
Oh, and 6 of the 8 goals they scored in the past 2 games were even strength so maybe they have figured out how to score 5 on 5.
As Muppet said, Osgood was brutal (and has been for most of the year) and the leafs played the only team worse than them for the other game. Good thing they got those goals otherwise they would have been under 1 GPG even strength.
The bottom line is 3 wins in 15 games with most of the points coming against teams that are not exactly setting the league on fire.
But with Cam Ward is out for at least a month, Boston will probably have to settle for the 2nd overall pick.
not if manny legacy has anything to say about it....
Osgood was brutal (and has been for most of the year)
Not completely true. In six of his eight starts he has given up 2 goals or less and in two others he gave up three. His save percentage on the season is .902 (was .910 coming into the Leaf game) which is substantially better than his .887 save percentage last year. He wasn't great on Saturday, but I wouldn't necessarily call him brutal, at least not in the way Toskala has been brutal.
The bottom line is 3 wins in 15 games with most of the points coming against teams that are not exactly setting the league on fire.
But you are lumping in all the pre-Kessel and pre-Gustavsson games. If Toskala/MacDonald were going to start more than half of the remaining games and if Kessel was only going to play a dozen or so more games, then you might be justified in simply using the full 15 games to draw conclusions about the remaining 67 games, but barring injuries Kessel will play evrey game and Gustavsson will get the significant majority of the starts. Gustavsson is 3-1-3 in his 7 starts and with Kessel in the lineup the Leafs are 2-0-1.
I'm not drawing any conclusions.
I'm only pointing out that this point streak the leafs are on has involved many moons aligning.
Oops. How silly of DC. You should have pointed that out sooner, DJ. How could he have been ignorant enough to base his assumptions on anything but the last 3 Leaf games?
Oh, wait. What he might have been doing was basing them upon the 12 Leaf games prior to that. Or even on the 328 Leaf games prior to that. You can't blame a man for betting on the continuance of a trend.
What I see above is a tacit confirmation of the elevation of Kessel & Gustavsson to the status of Savior & bringer of Salvation. Burke rounds out the holy trinity.
Colton Orr plays the role of Mary.
With Gustavsson & Kessel the Leafs are still a marginally bad team. Without Kessle, they're flat out bad. Without Gustavsson they're straight up terrible.
The only thing that the Leafs actually have going for them is the "unknown" quantity Gustavsson brings and the lack of fixed lines. Once teams get enough tape on Monster Jo'hova that part will change and once Kessel is reliably paired with a centre, the opponents will be able to strategize their pairings better.
Gustavsson being an unknown is a good point. There will be tape distributed and they will get a book on him. But as of now, at this point he looks like he could be the real deal. And as opponents are just learning him he is just learning them and the league and the surface.
We haven't got much.....just let us have this for a minute anyway.
Muppet asks: When's the last time Colton Orr pounded the shit out of somebody?
Answer: in junior.
It is indeed a small sample size. The Leafs have only been playing well for a few weeks, but like I said it kicked off when Gustavsson got back healthy.
They look great right now. I'm sure that's tough for Ottawa fans to swallow.
Toronto are six points out of a playoff spot (Tampa) and have two games in hand.
Another strong week and the Leafs will be right where we thought they would be - battling for a playoff spot.
F'n aye!
Now where do I watch the game tonight while I'm in Iowa? Hopefully Minnesota being close will help...
Toronto are six points out of a playoff spot (Tampa) and have two games in hand.
leaf hamlet apparently doesn't realize that the leafs have yet to win a game against an Eastern Conf team that had more points than them when the game started.....
Now where do I watch the game tonight while I'm in Iowa?
Not sure but I'm curious to know if anyone is Iowa does anything else other than cut corn and fuck cows.
Another strong week and the Leafs will be right where we thought they would be - battling for a playoff spot.
There are some sports reporters out of Toronto who have this theory that the Leafs play well once out of playoff contention, but play poorly when they're in the mix.
If that theory has any validity, then it would explain the season so far. At the start of the year, with all teams even, the Leafs stunk. Once they slipped way behind the pack, they started to play better.
The real test of this theory now is whether it predicts the future. If the Leafs get back into the playoff mix, will they start sucking until they are once again out of it?
...Not sure but I'm curious to know if anyone in Iowa does anything else other than cut corn and fuck cows.
Makes you wonder what Muppet is selling! 
leaf hamlet apparently doesn't realize that the leafs have yet to win a game against an Eastern Conf team that had more points than them when the game started.....
So now the Leafs are getting penalized for beating teams in what most people consider the better conference and/or the fact that the NHL scheduled the Leafs to play a number of western conference teams early on?
Of course, the Senators have one win against teams that made the playoffs last year while the Leafs have 3.
Of course, the Senators have one win against teams that made the playoffs last year while the Leafs have 3.
That's such a bullshit view of things and a convenient stat. Boston, Carolina, Montreal, Detroit, Anaheim, & St. Louis made the playoffs last year. As it stands, none of them are in playoff positions.
Anyone here looking at wins over Colorado or the Kings and saying "yeah, but they were last place lats year"?
Give that one a rest, shall we?
So now the Leafs are getting penalized for beating teams in what most people consider the better conference
Maybe in years past but that's hardly that case this year. There are just as many shit teams in the WC as there are in the EC. PIT, WAS, PHI and SJ are the "class" of the league now and looming to strangle everything in sight is NJ with Lemaire. Sens and leaf fans should be happy that we only need to play the upper echelons of the EC only 4 times each. I think DET will struggle more this year than years past. Long term injuries, UFA defections and below average goaltending will take a toll.
the fact that the NHL scheduled the Leafs to play a number of western conference teams early on?
Please. The leafs have played 10 of their 15 games against EC teams and have taken 6 out of possible 20 points (30%). There's not enough lipstick on the planet to pretty that up.
For comparisons sake, the Sens have played 13 of their 14 games against EC teams and have taken 15 out of a possible 26 points (58%).
Give that one a rest, shall we?
Sure it is a bogus stat, but no more so than "leafs have yet to win a game against an Eastern Conf team that had more points than them when the game started." That was the point I was trying to make.
Maybe in years past but that's hardly that case this year.
East vs West: 25-30-5 - 55 points
West vs East: 35-19-6 - 76 points
Seems to me the west is probably still the better conference.
Hey, anybody know where I can see the Leafs/Minn game streamed online tomorrow night?
In the meantime I'll see if I can find a bar in town playing it...
East vs West: 25-30-5 - 55 points
West vs East: 35-19-6 - 76 points
It's a 5 win difference. That would be a very loose definition of "better". Most would call it "random".
And the leafs are responsible for giving the WC 3 of those 5 wins.
You stand corrected.
Hey, anybody know where I can see the Leafs/Minn game streamed online tomorrow night?
Sorry I can't help. I've never had a boss mad enough at me to get sent to Iowa.
If you can't find anything then the only thing I can think of would be to take a shot and drive the couple hours to the Minnesota border.
Hey, anybody know where I can see the Leafs/Minn game streamed online tomorrow night?
Try here (check tomorrow for the sched):
http://atdhe.net/
It's a 5 win difference. That would be a very loose definition of "better". Most would call it "random".
It's the difference between a 104 point team and a 75 point team. If that is "random", then I guess the difference between Chicago and Phoenix last season is just "random".
Sorry I can't help. I've never had a boss mad enough at me to get sent to Iowa.
I would have said the same thing.
Pretty sweet deal though. I help them figure out how to win a piece of business and they pay for me and my team to get smashed and eat for 4 days, plus stay the night in Chicago on the way home so I can wear a Kessel jersey at the United Center and maybe get my ass kicked. Wait a minute...
Thanks for the link THM. I'll give that a try.
It's the difference between a 104 point team and a 75 point team.
How 5 wins makes up a 30 point diff must be one of those Mysterys Of Adjustment.
If that is "random", then I guess the difference between Chicago and Phoenix last season is just "random".
Even though your numbers don't add up, a team to team comparision over an entire season's work is not quite the same as a comparison all teams over a month and a bit.
Thanks for playing.
How 5 wins makes up a 30 point diff must be one of those Mysterys Of Adjustment.
No mystery. In 60 games vs the east the west has 76 games. If that pace continued over 82 games it would equal 104 points. For the east they have 55 points 60 games against the western conference which works out to 75 points over 82 games. Chicago had 104 points last year while Phoenix had 79.
Even though your numbers don't add up, a team to team comparison over an entire season's work is not quite the same as a comparison all teams over a month and a bit.
Why? Please explain.
In 60 games vs the east the west has 76 games.
There we go with the magical adjustments again.
In 60 games vs the east the west has 76 games. If that pace continued over 82 games it would equal 104 points.
But wouldn't the number of Ws also have to increase to something more than 5? Please show us an example where a head-to-head matchup under the NHL points system can be 30 points with a 5 win differential.
Where do you get 5 from? The east has 10 fewer wins vs the west than the west does vs the east. West has 35 wins, east has 25 wins in head to head match-ups. The east would have to go on a 10 game winning streak to even things up.
BTW, Chicago only had 10 more wins than Phoenix last year.
Where do you get 5 from?
If the EC had won 5 more games, they would have 30 wins and the WC would also have 30 wins (In this case we OT/SO losses more or less cancel each other out). A regulation win in a head-to-head matchup is always a "4 point game" and since all EC v WC games are head-to-head games, they are also "4 point games" (assuming the OT/SO losses continue to cancel each other out).
The east would have to go on a 10 game winning streak to even things
It doesn't need to be a streak. There are 225 inter-conf games (not 82) and if 60 have already been played (I'm using your numbers), then there are 180 games left to decide. To go back to the original discussion point, it's highly debatable the the WC is better simply because a few WC teams were able to come in and beat the crap out of CAR.
BTW, Chicago only had 10 more wins than Phoenix last year.
Not sure why you are comparing the cumulative result of 15 teams going head-to-head with another 15 teams against 2 individual teams who only head-to-head only 4 times a year. At the very least, please find an in-division comparison so we know the teams at least played the same schedule.
To go back to the original discussion point, it's highly debatable the the WC is better simply because a few WC teams were able to come in and beat the crap out of CAR.
It's notable that Ottawa & Washington had virtually identical records against the WC last year.
I think this whole thread started because the Leafs have beat some western conference teams right?
The truth is, the Leafs have won and lost this year mostly based on goaltending and penalty killing. Those two things improved and the Leafs have won games. Powerplay has remained steady too, but not nearly at the pace it was going on that western trip.
The truth is, the Leafs have won and lost this year mostly based on...
...getting a tonne more PPs than the other team.
Now it's fixed.
DJ, why do you always post obscure and relatively meaningless statistics that spark debates over stupid numbers? When we consider that the Leafs have two wins over Western conference teams, it does not make any fucking difference which conference is better. The Leafs beat a bad Anaheim team and a Detroit team that played a terrible game in front of a bad goaltender. Why can't we just leave it at that?
The Leafs still suck and the Senators will still be a bubble team regardless of how many wins the EC would need to play .500 hockey against the WC.
...getting a tonne more PPs than the other team.
Now it's fixed.
Not true. During this 2-game win streak the Leafs had less powerplays than their opponent in both games. Toronto were 1 for 2 in Carolina with the extra man.
"Toronto's powerplay is awesome", I think, would be a better fix. Don't you?
The Leafs beat a bad Anaheim team and a Detroit team that played a terrible game in front of a bad goaltender. Why can't we just leave it at that?
Osgoode was not very "goode". No doubt about it but Anaheim are not a bad team. They have one less win than Ottawa and two fewer points in the standings. They also won a few rounds of playoff hockey with the same team and have four or five players any GM in the league would kill to have on their team. They simply met a desperate and rough and tumble Leafs team who they couldn't keep up with and got undisciplined against. It's a mental game as well as a physical game. Toronto dominated in both areas and deserved the win and earned the win.
"Anaheim are not a bad team."
They had a terrible record at the time that they played the Leafs is all I mean. They are still last in the division and their proximity to other teams in the standings this early in the season really isn't all that telling.
a) "They also won a few rounds of playoff hockey with the same team" b) "and have four or five players any GM in the league would kill to have on their team."
a) Hey, so did Carolina. I guess they're not that bad after all.
b) Hey, So does St. Louis, but look where they're sitting.
I'd hate to turn the topic of discussion into whether or not Anaheim is a good team, but get over yourselves, Leaf fans. Whether or not the Leafs are a good team does not come down to the number of playoff rounds won last year by the teams they defeat. The fact that they beat teams like Detroit and Anaheim in the months of October and November does not reveal a whole lot.
The fact that they beat teams like Detroit and Anaheim in the months of October and November does not reveal a whole lot.
So how do you feel about Ottawa's record, considering the teams the Senators have beaten and how those teams are doing or were doing when Ottawa played them?
If I use your lens to look at the schedule, all I see is Ottawa not having yet beat one team this entire season, or even getting a point against one team this season, who by your filter qualifies as a tough opponent.
Agree or disagree.
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