It's hard to get a straight answer from campaigns about this, so I encourage you to run your own trial testing. I've been involved in door to door campaigns and the volunteer coordinators always rant and rave about how helpful they are. But I've seen actual studies conducted, similar to the one you propose, that tend to indicate that impact drops drammatically (almost flat) after the initial door to door or mailing or some type of campaign contact. The initial contact can made a big difference, but after that diminishing returns comes about at a very quick pace.
Logan,
Like I said, I've done a little of this in a spotty way -- getting together a precinct doorbell and seeing if it stood out in the votes; working the polling place to see if there was improved performance at that polling place.
I just want to do it bigger and better this time, with more variables. If a single doorbell produces as much effect as two, or as two plus a candidate event, then the obvious conclusion is to invest in doing doorbellings in more precincts rather than doing multiple events in fewer precincts. Etc., etc.
It can't really be entirely a science, but experimentation and observation can't hurt.
Naturally, I hope to do this in Republican precincts in districts with tight races 
Tom Knapp
Thomas,
I'm running for the Indiana Statehouse. I have won 4 precincts in the last two elections when I ran for County Council and County Commissioner. Our candidates knocked on every door in two of those precincts. The state representative district is too big for that kind of coverage, and so far our budget looks like it will be around $10,000.00, so we will have varying degrees of exposure over the three counties involved. Probably too far away for you to monitor, though.
But I would be glad to forward whatever info and stats I can gather, if you're interested.
Rex Bell
http://rexbell.blogspot.com/2006...y-and-
what.html
Rex,
I'm definitely interested!
You say your district is too big for door-knocking, and it may be ... for one person who can't work full-time as a candidate.
But what if you got volunteers to put out door-hangers district-wide, advertising events -- coffees in supporters' homes, meet-and-greets at local parks, etc.?
Obviously, meeting the candidate is best, but even creating a "candidate presence" using volunteers and puting yourself at events covering 2-4 precincts each may be helpful. That way those who want to meet you will have an "in their face" opportunity, even if you don't knock on their doors.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
I like the idea. But it would take more than the annual budget of the national Libertarian Party to carry it out.
Despite that, it might be worth it. Maybe someone could convince them to allocate all their funds towards such an effort. If it didn't work out, they'd know it was finally time to fold up the tent. And if it DID work, it'd sure get a lot of attention.
putrimalu,
Last time I looked, the budget of the national LP was somewhere in the million dollar range. The activities I propose will cost somewhere in the thousand dollar range, at the outside.
We're talking about a few thousand brochures, a few volunteers and, if we want to get really jiggy with it, some yard signs and some purchased voter data for targeting the right households (which would actually decrease the literature cost).
For the sake of budget comparisons, I personally canvassed double digits of precincts, and carried 20-odd out of 77 precincts, in a city of 100,000, on a budget of about $1,500. That was a non-partisan election with low turnout, so I wouldn't expect similar results, but the expenses wouldn't be too dissimilar.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
Aha. I was misinterpreting some of what you wrote. Your second post on the topic cleared this up.
I read "serious candidates", and then "State House, State Senate, County Executive, State Auditor, US House and US Senate candidates, etc", and immediately envisioned professional staffers, $$$ for time off to campaign, etc - basically all the parts of campaigning that take lots of $$$.
Thanks for setting me straight!
Tom,
Have you ever confronted the distinct possiblity that most people don't want more liberty and in fact love the state as it is now and only desire it be even more pervasive? What of that demographic?
If the intent of your undertaking is to sabotage Republicans then it may work in a few tight districts, but as soon as you elected a few anti-gun, pro-tax, nanny-state Dems in their place your liberty minded converts will revert as their agenda gets trashed by the new guy.
That's how I see it anyhow.
Ali
Ali,
My intent is not to "sabotage Republicans." My intent is to develop workable tactics for electing Libertarians.
I'm not sure why you necessarily think that anti-gun, pro-tax, nanny-state Dems are inferior to anti-gun, pro-tax, nanny-state Republicans, though.
Regards,
Tom
I have done a bit of this. On campaigns I have worked on hard I have marked up the precint map with percentages vs. effort invested. Here is my rating of efforts:
1. Personal visits by the candidate. That is actual door-knocks by candidate.
2. Having an aggressive campaign worker work the polling place.
3. Issue-based yard signs during the campaign period. (If your area allows such on public right-of-ways or you have enough members with homes/businesses that can display such.)
4. Lit dropping.
5. Door knocking by campaign workers.
6. Yard signs at the polling place. (Practically useless.)
If I had the money/volunteers, I would like to try lit drops followed by candidate visits. THe lit should include pictures of the candidate. If I had more money, then I would put it into billboards with the candidate's picture and name.
Tom,
Fair enough.
What about my first point though?
Ali
Ali,
If you mean "confronting the possibility that ..." then yes, I've considered it. It doesn't particularly concern me. I long ago gave up the notion that I would ever wake up some morning in libertopia.
I happen to enjoy doing the things I do in electoral politics. I wouldn't do them to try to achieve a bad result (even if I thought that would succeed); I will do them to try to achieve a good result (even though failure is a distinct possibility), because I like doing them.
Regards,
Tom
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