I voted for Badnarik in 2004 _only_ because I couldn't get the write-in mechanism to work, the lines were long, and I was embarassed to make my neighbors wait any longer while I complained to the poll workers.
I backed Michael from the first time I met him, and saw him as the first LP Pres contender I had no trouble supporting since Clark in 1980. If he is elected to Congress, may he stay long enough to at least begin turning the train around. If not, and he wants to throw himself under the wheels again nationally, who am I to stop him?
His "edgy issues" should not be front-page campaign brochure fodder, but there is nothing non-libertarian about them, and they offer some validation to those already resisting the Leviathan in those ways.
I suspect you're wildly over-optimistic about Badnarik's congressional campaign. What is the best result ever for a LP candidate in a three-way congressional race?
I was one of those delegates and will not support Badnarik again for a national race. I may send money to his Congressional campaign, but that's contingent on some factors like having just paid a lot of taxes and being broke right at present.
Badnarik's views are misguided and incorrect. As long as they're his alone, he's not harming anyone, but I'm not interested in having him be on the top of my ticket again.
Yours truly,
Mr. X
...on message...
Mike,
I don't know what the best LP total in a three-way congressional race is. However, if I recall correctly (it's been awhile since I looked at the election results), an independent managed 7% or so in Badnarik's district last time around, and since I didn't find any FEC reports for that independent, I'm assuming he didn't spend more than $5,000.
Badnarik has raised about $200K. His first billboard just went up, and I understand he has contracts signed for two more already. The campaign manager is holding his plans close to the vest, but I'm willing to bet there will be a significant investment in television and radio advertising as well. Last time I looked, the incumbent had about half a million, and the Democrat hand't filed an FEC report yet, which means less than $5k.
Finally, with re-districting, it's allegedly a very libertarian-leaning district -- part of Ron Paul's old district, and part of Lloyd Doggett's old district (the Democratic Freedom Caucus guys like Doggett -- I haven't researched him).
I'll put it a different way: If Badnarik doesn't pull in the 20% range, it will mean someone screwed up BIG. The race is tailor-made for much better than usual LP candidate performance.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
Prediction: 12-14%, same range as Carla Howell under similar conditions.
I contributed to, campaigned for and voted for Badnarik after he received the nomination. He was easy enough for Libertarians to support, but if we want our presidential candidate to present the libertarianism to the masses, I think we need someone without any excess baggage, whether it is libertarian compatible or not.
Hope you and yours had a nice Easter, T...
AubreyJ.........
Interesting asssessment. Why won't these unorthodox positions affect his race for the House? Since it's likely that he'll poll early on in double digits, won't his opponents be able to latch onto this? My guess is that Michael's (unorthodox) viewpoints won't be a factor in 2008 because he'll either loose in TX because of them or find a way to push them aside. I think he can manage the latter.
Mark,
If Badnarik begins polling high enough to scare his opponents, his views will become an issue in the congressional race.
Regardless of whether that happens or not, they'll be a factor in any attempt to secure the 2008 presidential nomination. A decisive factor? I don't know. But definitely a factor, if for no other reason than at least one of his opponents will focus on them.
Regards,
Tom Knapp
We already have people in Congress who are far wackier than Badnarik -- and with far less charisma.
What is acceptable in a legislator is vastly different from what is acceptable in an executive.
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