Huckabee scares the pants off me!
Anne,
Me too.
I know you know this, but I probably should make it clear for the benefit of random passersby:
I'm not a Republican, I don't plan to become a Republican, and I don't support Huckabee. I'm not endorsing any of these candidates; I'm just trying to dispassionately handicap the race.
Regards,
Tom
Great Blog, Mr. Knapp.
I think that the Republican Party will end up nominating Sarah Palin as their 2012 pick for President, which would be scary in My book. But if that doesn't happen, I have a feeling that Mitt Romney will end up getting the nod instead of Sarah Palin, specially since the GOP has been trying to re-brand themselves ever since they lost the Election to the Democrats.
As far as Newt is concerned, if he doesn't throw his Name into the GOP's hat, or if he doesn't get the nod as the GOP's Presidential Nominee, I have a feeling that he may run as an Independent or as the Nominee of the Constitution Party. Newt will most likely be the Ralph Nader of the 2012 Elections if he doesn't get the GOP's nod for President.
Mr. Knapp, do you think Ron Paul will run again in 2012? I understand that Doctor Paul will be 77 by then, but do you think he'll have a good shot at running for President under the Republican Party banner?
Danilo,
I'm not privy to any information on Dr. Paul's intentions. Like you said, he'll be 77. I left him off the list because I don't expect him to run, but he just might, or someone reasonably representative of his support base might run in his stead.
I don't think Paul, or a designated Paul hitter, will do any better next time than last time if he or she runs in the GOP primaries. This time, the element of surprise worked for "Ron Paul Republicans" to a degree. Next time, the Powers That Be will be working to shut it down from the start.
Regards,
Tom
Jeb Bush: would probably do rather well.
Newt Gingrich: Could probably convince MSM that he actually believes in something.
Mike Huckabee: Don't like him, would probably do well as MSM couldn't ask enough tough questions to pierce his practiced equanimity.
Bobby Jindal: Isn't doing well enough now, doesn't have enough "experience" (whatever that really means) to be respected by the MSM.
Sarah Palin: Can't win - the media beat her out of office and could easily beat her out of any campaign for President. They'll debate her outfits while promoting Obama's tough choices - how can she win that comparison?
Tim Pawlenty: He is a governor I hear.. somewhere. Will he end up being the next male Sarah Palin? Perhaps.
Mitt Romney: Wouldn't be surprised if he ran again. He would be adored by the MSM media for his efforts to expand (government) health care coverage although they sure didn't ask how it turned out (surprise).
Fred Thompson: Can't generate enough media shine as a politician to outshine his handlers.
Gary Johnson: Could he grab enough interest? I hope so.
Thane,
I thought about including Johnson ... but the only place I'm really hearing his name right now is in libertarian circles. He's one of a very few candidates who might actually turn my head toward the possibility of considering voting GOP, and of those few he's probably the most likely to run.
On this first pass I decided to eschew "dark horse" possibles, including Johnson, and avoid "the Ron Paul question."
My next pass may be next week or it may be next year. Either way I expect it will go some places that this one didn't.
Huckabee....start drilling "no more Arkansans."
Palin may have Reagnesque qualities; Dan Quayle did too, but she's more charismatic, albeit without the dynastic connections of the Bush boys.
Gingrich reminds me of Clinton in many ways. I think he has potential.
(I'm nowhere near a fan of Reagan or Clinton, but their approaches worked at mass appeal).
Thompson and Romney are both tagged as chronically indecisive, thus probably will not go far.
Ron Paul and/or Gary Johnson or someone similar probably will run. Yes, the establishment will be better prepared, but hopefully the Paulists have learned some organizational lessons as well.
Hmmm. Obama v Huckabee v Milnes. Yeah, I can win that.
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