Democrats will unite behind either Clinton or Obama, no matter how they feel now.
An end to the Al-Sadr truce in Iraq, and an economy increasingly out of control, will mean a huge surge for the Democrats, regardless of who they end up uniting behind.
I am still thinking that will be Clinton, but either way will work.
The Republicans best bet to keep the white house past 1/20/09 is a major terrorist attack on US soil close to election time (perhaps even on election day). Maybe during the transition as well.
Unless they get lucky, or unless you believe in US government false flag terror operations on US soil, Clinton (probably) or Obama (maybe) will still be taking that oath no matter what.
I paraphrase James Carville:
Never underestimate the Democrats ability to talk themselves out of winning an election.
If the Republicans had nominated someone like Romney or Guiliani, then they would be toast. However, McCain has this weird appeal.
I think McCain has a good chance of winning (especially against Obama), though I think it will only happen if he has a few poor fundraising quarters. Why? Because then he won't be able to afford the asshat republican campaign strategists that wrecked his ship last summer. If McCain is McCain -- damn the torpedoes, I'm doing it my way, screw the conservatives, I'll kiss no ass -- then I think he'll win. Mostly because the media will be de-boning Obama by October if Clinton hasn't finished the job before then.
We'll know which McCain is running soon. His VP selection will tell you everything you need to know. Romney: he loses. Boreing white male, "conservative" governor: he loses.
(BTW, look out for a McCain/Lieberman ticket. My gut tells me his VP choice will either be Lieberman, Romney or someone who leaves us all scratching our heads.)
It doesn't mean a tinkers damn if Obama, McCain or Hillary is sitting in the oval office in Jan. of 2009 because they're not going to do what is neccessary to save the economy, get us out of Iraq, cut the size of the government or stop Congress from spending the next generations future wealth. We're screwed, blued and tatooed. I'de like all three of them to loose.
Rocketman is correct. If someone holds a gun to my head to vote for any of those three, I'll ask them to pull the trigger.
But I still enjoys the gamesmanship aspect of it. The election is not going to be close IMO. McCain is very weak with his base right now, which can change IF the election becomes close and IF they have nowhere else to go but stay home.
But, with possibly e.g. Roy Moore or Steve Stockman on one hand, and Bob Barr or Wayne Root on the other, they WILL have somewhere to go, and with the worsening state of both the economy and the war between now and the election, McCain is toast regardless of VP choice or who the Democrats run.
Ruwart would not pull the same demographic as well, but may have a Ron Paul endorsement, which would at least give her an opening.
I agree with the democrat bloodbath theory. The recent contoversy with Obama's church might cost him just enough in the remaining primaries to scare the superdelegates to Clinton. With the lead Obama already has this will look like the party elite stealing the election from the voters (and make Florida in 2000 look like a statistical anomaly). With the deadlock in Michigan and Florida looking more and more like there will be no Do Over then there will be major disenfranchisement of democrats with the party. And democrats like McCain better than most republicans like McCain anyway, so it wont be that hard for them to vote for him.
What's really sad that the LP has no clear leader to take advantage of all this.
Tom I am getting an ironic ad at the top. Something about finding lost loves and families. How about a lost leadership with the LPUS?
Simon is right unfortunately. We haven't taken the time or made the effort to build up our own leadership. And I doubt someone is going to walk in out of the blue and save our asses for us.
If someone holds a gun to my head to vote for any of those three, I'll ask them to pull the trigger.
Best. Quote. Ever.
I'm lovin' the Democrat pie fights. I do wish there were more on the Repub side, though. Maybe even go beyond tossing pies and progress into beatings with folding metal chairs. On live television. C-SPAN could use some excitement...
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