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I hope not. I'n going to NYC in a few weeks!
Cape Cod as a Cat 2? Wow. Just what that area needs - more rain.
Brendan and Jeff, I am a shameless fear monger, but this is beyond grasp even for me. Think about this: There is a tropical sytem south of Cuba and you are talking about a landfall in New England? Are you aware of how narrow the angle of the track would have to be? To be fair, I mentioned this, but never focused.
Bryan, I just addressed your concern in an update to the post.
I don't think I'm too far out on a limb here. Max Mayfield was talking about a New England landfall in a TV interview today, and the NHC has been mentioning it in its discussions. My point is merely that, if the forecast trends continue, people need to be thinking about this before landfall in Florida, because Wilma could start accelerating very quickly and move up the Eastern seaboard quite quickly.
Rmmph. / HOW Quickly? A Day? Hours? Moments? Lightspeed? (End Times I'm tellin'yez... :)
Mom is presently in the New York Scenario, all Unawares. Mee, I'm Sitting in Southern New England, stewing. :>
"But, as I said, it's unlikely to happen. (All 120-hour-out scenarios are always unlikely to happen.)"
Not Exactly. EACH one, Individually, is unlikely to Happen. / But ONE of them, Approximately, likely Will.
Mah. ;}
All right, just give us a Beep when it's a timely Time to Get The Hell Out. :> / And then tell Robbie to Shove over, there's some Newbies comin' in. :]
Once a tropical system moves north it can move very very fast.
I recall the 1938 hurricane "came out of nowhere" as it had been spotted less than a day earlier by ships off Hatteras and then seemed to arrive out of the clear blue on LI and RI beaches.
I believe the forward speed of the 1938 hurricane was 50 mph. Even with satellites, if you wait for the storm to pass Hatteras befor concluding it will make a NE landfall, good luck, you'll have about 12 hours warning
what the link to the map displayed here?
Brendan,
As a Rhode Island resident, I can tell you that you are absolutely right to be posting these projections.
Psychologically, my fellow New Englanders won't start taking Wilma seriously as something that might effect them until the storm leaves the Gulf of Mexico and enters the North Atlantic. Remember, to the Northeast, hearing that a hurricane is in the Gulf of Mexico usually signals that any threat up here has ended.
Especially in the wake of the memories of Ophelia's meandering, Rhode Island need to be reminded how fast a hurricane can move up the Atlantic coast.
Joe - I didn't realise that you were originally from New Brunswick (just as Newfies are from Newfoundland) !
Whoulda thunk ?
(innocent grin)
I don't think it's fear-mongering to point out that New England is in the "cone."
Anyone within the cone needs to watch the weather reports a little more closely than usual and make a plan, just in case the worst happens. It doesn't mean, "Go buy plywood, water and D-cell batteries right now or you're gonna die!!!"
Even a miss could turn into another big flooding event for the already-saturated NE states, so I think this warning is reasonable and timely.
There are always people who thrive on drama, and they're the ones who might look at this storm's current track and flip out. You can't cater to them, though.
Reasonable cautions intended for reasonable people. It's all anyone can do.
Why are the projections for such a tight turn around the YP?
I am going to place my bet on Tampa.
and as a 5
Cone vs focusing are different. Max Mayfield needs fear in order to get funding. He has to be a politician. I am just very conservative about when to call a landfall point. When I do call it, I make sure to back it up, or at least have an excellent intuition.
Worried about your reputation, Bryan?
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