Bark!
Do we start holding our breath now, JJ? I don't wanna be a jinx, but wow, yes -- that's AHEAD!
I'm reading that in some states, as many as 45 per cent of voters have already voted.
In reality though, Kerry never led in a national poll after October 1st in 2004. McCain hasnt led in a national poll since Sept something.
And yea.. I see a lot of this "Obama hates children!" stuff from some devoted pro-life/anti-abortion people.. Apparently because he advocates the Bill Clinton "make abortion, safe, legal, and rare" line, that makes him a baby killer and a hater of children.. wah?
skdadl - 27 million people have already voted, and so far Obama is winning the early vote. The early vote usually favours repubs, but I think part of the Dem "ground game" this election was to get everyone out early to avoid voter suppression, intimidation, long lineups etc. So what this really means vis a vis the end result is anyone's guess.
I am holding my breath, more out of force of habit than anything else. I think it will be a lot closer than the polls indicate, no landslide, but it will be a decisive win for Obama. For McCain to win, he has to not only take all the GOP states, but also the tossups, the "barely Dem" and over half of the "weak Dem" states as well.
Make of that what you will
Then again, anything could happen
Let's indulge SUZANNE for a minute and say McCain wins. If that happens, it's still going to be with a strongly Democratic House and Senate that's going to happily set about dismantling the Bush "legacy" and, I'm willing to bet, McCain wouldn't do a thing to stop them.
Anyway, she and all the others should take heart from the truth - that Obama is further right than Stephen Harper.
That's an important point -- the congresscritturs do not march lockstep with any president, not even a Dem one, not if they've got the numbers, and it appears that this time they will, at least on constitutional questions, because there are some Repubs who will join with the Dems on those issues.
So the Dems don't even need 60 senators, although they're close. At the very least they can re-establish the principle that no one, up to and including the president, is above the law.
Scott - There is an awful lot of misinformation out there about Obama's stance on abortion, which as you note is "safe legal & rare".
The real reason anti-choicers hate Obama so much is because he wants to pass the Freedom of Choice Act, which would derail all the goofy little laws they've been pushing on the state level (ie. South Dakota's ballot measure that would redefine a fertilized egg as a person -- oh, please).
So they're disseminating some really vicious BS about him to make him sound "extreme", when really he's not. It only makes sense to address the abortion rate by lowering the rate of unwanted pregnancy through education and access to contraception.
RB - SUZANNE et al are hoping McCain will die in office and leave Bible Spice to take over (and maybe hoping one of their whackos will step up to the plate to make it happen). That's the ONLY reason they so rabidly support the ticket -- they hate McCain, he's a moderate.
Also, there are SCOTUS appointments, maybe as many as 3 of them, to be made in the next 4 years. Obama would appoint liberals and so he should, the court is way over weighted with conservatives right now. But, along with the FOCA, more liberals on SCOTUS would nip in the bud any hope of getting Roe overturned.
One can only hope that Blog Blogging Wingnut will have a nervous breakdown and will be forced to retire from spewing her lies and hateful propaganda on the internet. That would be one of the perks of an Obama win, for Canadians.
skdadl - You are right, the house and senate will be overwhelmingly Dem, and that would be a serious impediment to anything extreme that McCain (or Palin, god forbid) wanted to do.
There's something very sinister about this rabid support for Palin -- if McCain does win, he'd better watch his ass.
Oh noes! Has Blob Blogging Wingnut and her posse started a prayer tsunami for McCain's death .... err, reunion with the Lord?
deBeauxOs - Now now, SUZANNE has a right to her opinions, however delusional and absurd Sunshine is the best disinfectant
In reality, if Obama wins the wingnuts will be having a field day. If they were bad when they were on the winning side, imagine what they'll be like on the losing side... We haven't even begun to reach "Peak Wingnut" yet.
deBeauxOs - Remember there was an article awhile back about how they were praying for McCain to die? I blogged about it, I'll try to find it.
deBeaux - Here it is -- "Imprecatory prayer" Egads, these people are fucking batshit.
What..Harper is not as far right as Obama, well what in the hell have they been ruled by down here? A Fascism State ?
Harper is further right than Conservatives, and Obama is more like a Liberal Democrat, and I hope he makes it.
Cari - Actually, Harper is just a little to the right and slightly more authoritarian than Obama, according to thePolitical Compass.
Who knew, eh?
I don't know why this is a surprise to anyone. The man is, after all, an American.
Mind you, I suspect that if that 'Political Compass' measured Harper's actual ideology and beliefs instead of just what he proposes in public, he would be considerably further up into the top right corner than he's shown.
I'll weigh in as the "token Conservative" here.
I'm a Conservative voter, and a Harper supporter, and I'm not the least bit concerned about an Obama presidency. You'll find that many, many Canadian Conservatives would be Democrats in the U.S. The countries are drastically different from a political spectrum standpoint.
By American standards, he is considered to be on the "left wing" of the Democratic party. In reality, when you look at his views, he is very similar to Stephen Harper. In Canada, Obama would be considered right wing.
Furthermore, there is not much difference between the Democrats and the Republicans when you look closely at the issues. In Canada, there is more diversity of platform between the parties, and that's good for Canadians.
Obama will win, although I don't think he'll win by 11 points unless historical voter turnout models are completely shattered. As president, he'll govern in a more conservative way than he has campaigned (by conservative, I really mean "classical liberal"). He has to, given the issues of the day.
Things like the political compass are outdated - regular people don't think of themselves as "left" or "right". Now, I understand how some would try to believe that Harper is "considerably further up into the top right corner", but really, he's not. He's actually even more centrist, but has to maintain the support of various voters on what some would call the right wing to prevent other parties from sprouting up. If you look closely at the man, you'll realize that if Harper had his way, he'd focus entirely on economic/fiscal issues.
Cheers.
At then end of a two-term Obama presidency and a two-term Harper ministry, I'm willing to bet that one country would have:
- fully-funded legal abortion
- gays and lesbians serving openly in the armed forces
- equal rights for women under the constitution
- proper representation of women on the Supreme Court
- all legal marriages recognized by the federal government
- single-payer health care available to all legal residents
- not one single execution
And that in the other country none of these things will be true. Goodness know Harper can't take any credit for any of those things, but he's willing to live with them. Electing Obama will not, in my opinion, bring the United States any closer to achieving them. At best (and goodness knows this is reason enough to elect him) things won't get worse than they are.
We haven't even begun to reach "Peak Wingnut" yet.
Well, JJ, if Tim F. over at Balloon Juice is right, there may be no such thing as "Peak Wingnut."
Jennifer - Harper is to the left of his own party -- I guess that's a reflection of the socons in the CPC, and Harper's own insistence on closing the door on any abortion debate. If the "Political Compass" is to be believed, Harper is actually closer to Obama than he is to his own party And they're both close to the Liberal Party of Canada.
I remember reading about a study that said that the more devoutly religious, the more likely one would kill without question if instructed to do so "by God"...I believe Dr. Robert Buckman cited it in his book "Can we be Good without God?".
Mean that if Bible Spice thinks its God's will that President McCain meet an untimely end via causes other than natural ones, she would have no qualms about it. Indeed, she probably would have no compunction about doing it herself (though likely she'd get some kind of "witch hunter" to do it).
Sometimes I honestly wonder if McCain is gaffing on purpose in order to throw the election, so that he can save his own life.
Hi Michael - You are spot on. Democrats in the US are sort of a meld between our CPC and LPC. I remember all the freaking out when Clinton came into office, about what a "commie" he was, and I was always amazed because he struck me as a little right-wing. But that's the difference between US politics and ours.
Certainly there isn't a lot of difference between the Dems and the Repubs on a lot of basic issues, like the economy -- that became evident with the Wall Street bailout. It was the GOP's baby, and if it isn't socialism, I don't know what is. Whoever wins tomorrow will have the unenviable task of dealing with the economic shitpile, but either candidate will do it the same way: raise taxes.
I agree that Obama will win, I think it will be by 4 or 5 points at most.
To your last point, I agree Harper governs from right of centre, but I don't trust him to stay there. But so far he's exceeded my expectations, which were that he'd re-open social issues and start rolling back peoples' hard-earned rights. So far so good.
RB - I agree, there won't be as much progress on social issues as people think. I note with some cynicism that Obama hasn't taken any stand on Prop 8 (even Bill Clinton has). As far as abortion goes, I think it'll be in better shape once he passes the freedom of choice act, and appoints a couple of SCOTUS judges. But I doubt it'll ever be taxpayer funded
As for universal health care, I'm sure they'll try to get something happening at some point, but it won't be for awhile. Not when the economy is tanking.
The points you bring up really highlight how right-wing the US is compared to us, even our conservatives. Thus it has always been, and probably always will be. But the fact that at least things can't deteriorate any further is, as you say, reason enough to vote for Obama.
JA - I also thought that a new Dem administration might mean Peak Wingnut has come & gone, but when I read Tim F's post, had to concede that he was probably right. They're bad now? Just wait. OMFG, can you imagine the bombast on the EIB network on Wednesday?? Just the beginning.
Mike - Gah! Can she field-dress a McCain?? Oh, the photoshop opportunities (Zorpheus, are you reading?)
I have no doubt that Harper is further to the 'left' of his own party on classical social neo-con button issues (guns, God, abortion). None of those things have ever held much importance to him, except as a means of getting his winger supporters all riled up when that is advantageous to him.
It's in the realm of economic policy, the role and structure of government and the balance of public vs. private interests that Harper is at his most radical, and where he poses the most danger. Unfortunately, you're right - that doesn't show up in most gauges like the 'Political Compass', although on that basis alone he would likely turn up in the land of the Libertarians.
It also doesn't seem to register with most voters, since so many of them figure that as long as Harper isn't actively pro-life or pushing to end gay marriage then he isn't really one of those 'scary' conservatives. We can thank the Americans for that, for spending the past few decades conflating social conservatism with economic neo-liberalism.
Harper is not as far right as Obama, well what in the hell have they been ruled by down here? A Fascism State ?
Cari, to borrow from a certain song about t3h Internets, you have no idea.
To your last point, I agree Harper governs from right of centre, but I don't trust him to stay there
With you on that one JJ (he doesn't have a majority)
Peas and rice.
Just for that, I plan to celebrate an Obama win by aborting FOUR babies.
(why do you have no rolly-eyes?)
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