ACK,

You could be right.

On the other hand, consider the race as dynamic, with every change shaping other factors and so on in a sort of chain reaction.

Specifically, if Thompson gets in, what will happen to the lest solid bases of McCain, Giuliani and Romney?

If McCain decides to pass the 'reform' mantle to Fred and he picks up 30% of McCain's vote, he reaches the high teens. Say he picks up another 10% fron Rudy and Mitt and he quickly reaches mid to high 20s.

That would increase his number in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina without factoring for momentum. A surging Fred would be particularly bad for Romney, who has been concentrating on Southern states heavily. Tennessee would be gone. Mississippi, where Lott and Barber conspired with McCain against
Frist at the SLRC, would probably follow McCain to Fred. And so on...

A further point:

With momentum, Fred may well become the option to Rudy. That would really finish Romney.

I don't suggest this is written in stone. However, if Fred gets rolling, he may hit the winter as the concensus for everyone but the substantial Rudy vote.
Mark Rogers | Homepage | 04.19.07 - 5:49 pm | #